Lyth0s Bitcoin Price Trending and Speculation

[lyth0s]

I will be using this thread to express my opinion and analysis on bitcoin price and anyone is free to make comments or add their on analysis to the discussion. Generally I'm bullish on long term bitcoin price and its useability in everyday transactions. However, I welcome both bulls and bears to this discussion as I feel it is important to keep a well balanced view on the topic.

 
Latest Predictions:
3/16/14 - I think bitcoin may drop to $566 this month before trending back up. Current March through July 2014 bitcoin prediction here.

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[dnaleor]

Read your analysis; I agree with the exponentioan trend, but It is not wordt (for me) to take the risk of selling for a small gain.
We will eventually see the new rally. I am just waiting now

And do not forget, the extrapolation can vary a lot if you use slightly different numbers.

[lyth0s]

Yeah if you were to sell now and it did drop to about $560 and then rallied up from there that would only be an extra 12% gain. So people would have to compare the benefits of that 12% against the risk of missing a CCMF event

[jl2012]

I'm doing the similar thing here while I use all data since the inception of MtGox: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0

[lyth0s]

Well mt gox pricing has been way off for the past 2 years or so. I used bitstamp which I feel is a more accurate depiction of actual btc prices.

[lyth0s]

Bitcoin price is downtrending, currently at $615 on BTC-e. We may indeed see the $550-590 area in the next couple of weeks as indicated by my prediction

[YipYip]

Bitcoin price is downtrending, currently at $615 on BTC-e. We may indeed see the $550-590 area in the next couple of weeks as indicated by my prediction

I hope so ...I have some $$ comming available in the next 2 weeks that will love sub 600 BTC prices

[lyth0s]

Yep bitcoin down to $606, $590 incoming.

[bassclef]

Yep bitcoin down to $606, $590 incoming.

They dumped into a significant resistance/support point @ 610. I think we bounce around for a bit but not lower.

[lyth0s]

Well on BTC-e there are no buy orders all the way down to $608, which can be broke to $606 with $5,000. On bitstamp you're right there is huge support at $615.71   BTC:48.45300000    $29,833.00. But with that being said I've noticed that bitstamp has been following btc-e prices for the past 36 hours, so I presume that bitstamp will be lower tomorrow.


Edit: also if you look at market depth on bitstamp, there are wayyyy more asks than bids.

[lyth0s]

There is now a $18k wall and a $92k wall at 603 on btc-e. I suspect the $92,000 wall is a fake, the $18k wall may be legit. If not for those two walls though btc price could hit $600, guess we will just have to see if the walls are legit or not, I suspect they will be tested within the next 2-8 hours.


Edit: the $18k wall disappeared, but now another $49k wall is up. I'm going to stop tracking this minute by minute for a while and we will just see where the market ends up in the morning.

[CoinBurner]

thanks for your interesting analysis
personally I am not putting too much attention on those tiny 20k-30k "walls" but more on the big picture... just a few days ago there where more than 7 millions $ on bitstamp bid side @ 600$... now it seems it's just a little bit more than 1 million and shrinking 

[lyth0s]

Bitcoin hit $582 today, which means it went down to the $550-$590 area I was previously talking about. According to my graph it should now be at $581 on 3/20/14, which is pretty damn close to the $582 it resides at today

I would recommend buying now and enjoying the ride up. There is a possibility of a market scare that would make it go down more, but I think the risk of waiting out weighs the potential benefit if you just buy now.

[arepo]

Bitcoin hit $582 today, which means it went down to the $550-$590 area I was previously talking about. According to my graph it should now be at $581 on 3/20/14, which is pretty damn close to the $582 it resides at today

I would recommend buying now and enjoying the ride up. There is a possibility of a market scare that would make it go down more, but I think the risk of waiting out weighs the potential benefit if you just buy now.

so you rescind this earlier prediction?

Latest Predictions:
3/16/14 - I think bitcoin may drop to $566 this month before trending back up.

[lyth0s]

Bitcoin hit $582 today, which means it went down to the $550-$590 area I was previously talking about. According to my graph it should now be at $581 on 3/20/14, which is pretty damn close to the $582 it resides at today

I would recommend buying now and enjoying the ride up. There is a possibility of a market scare that would make it go down more, but I think the risk of waiting out weighs the potential benefit if you just buy now.

so you rescind this earlier prediction?

Latest Predictions:
3/16/14 - I think bitcoin may drop to $566 this month before trending back up.

No I do not. That prediction was based on where bitcoin price should have been on 3/16/14. Now that its 3/20/14 my formula states the price should be $581 and now we can hope for a slow gradual increase of bitcoin price from here on out. Could it drop lower for a little bit due to a public scare? sure. But the math would show that the price should be $581 now and I wouldn't risk hoping that it goes lower. Should be back to $609 by 3/27/14.

[arepo]

Bitcoin hit $582 today, which means it went down to the $550-$590 area I was previously talking about. According to my graph it should now be at $581 on 3/20/14, which is pretty damn close to the $582 it resides at today

I would recommend buying now and enjoying the ride up. There is a possibility of a market scare that would make it go down more, but I think the risk of waiting out weighs the potential benefit if you just buy now.

so you rescind this earlier prediction?

Latest Predictions:
3/16/14 - I think bitcoin may drop to $566 this month before trending back up.

No I do not. That prediction was based on where bitcoin price should have been on 3/16/14. Now that its 3/20/14 my formula states the price should be $581 and now we can hope for a slow gradual increase of bitcoin price from here on out. Could it drop lower for a little bit due to a public scare? sure. But the math would show that the price should be $581 now and I wouldn't risk hoping that it goes lower. Should be back to $609 by 3/27/14.

so your targets are based on the log-scale trendline in the same post? i'm not sure how sound of a model that is... your data even shows that the price regularly spends time far off the trendline because of the bubble-crash cycle. why do you believe that the price should stay close to the trendline, or close enough to use it for specific price predictions, from here on out?

[lyth0s]

Well that trendline that I posted has a R squared of greater than 0.9 meaning that the bitcoin price has an overall close association with time in an exponential equation. How would one use that info? Buy bitcoin when it is below the trend and sell when its above. And if we could retrospectively go back and buy/sell according to my graph, you would have always bought bitcoin cheap and sold it during each bubble. My graph by no means can predict lows and bubbles, only what the average price should be. So as the market continues from here on out, I'm personally going to buy below the trendline and sell somewhere (maybe 10-15%) above the trendline, rinse and repeat. People can speculate and try to sell higher before a bubble crashes, but I like playing the safer and more predictable way while still earning good revenue.

[JorgeStolfi]

You are counting on there being another rally like Jan-Mar/2013 and Oct-Nov/2013.  But in each case there were at least 5 months of stagnation between the previous rally-and-crash and the start of the new rally.  So if the future is to be like the past, the next rally should not begin until Jun/2014.

(But the past price history is irrelevant, unfortunately.  The price is determined by supply and demand, which are in turn determined by intangibles like public view of bitcoin.  There is no reason to expect that they will change in the future like they have in the past.

My "Slumber Method"  tries to measure some of those inrangibles, but I count it a great success when a trend persists over 4-5 days.

An exponential rally in the price of some commodity  is usually due to "infectious" growth of demand, typically when a new market is opened.  There may be another big market opening, or there may be not...)

[lyth0s]

Bitcoin adoption is going to be the prime key in the continued exponential growth in bitcoin for the next few years. It doesn't need any bubble (which you are calling a rally) it just needs to continue to be talked about and used in purchases and investments. Your slumber method isn't really predicting anything long term, it really is just a few lines that show the movement of price of bitcoin over the past few days and project where it will go tomorrow. While that would be good info for a day trader in bitcoin, it doesn't show any underlying value to the bitcoin or long term price movement.

[arepo]

Well that trendline that I posted has a R squared of greater than 0.9 meaning that the bitcoin price has an overall close association with time in an exponential equation. How would one use that info? Buy bitcoin when it is below the trend and sell when its above. And if we could retrospectively go back and buy/sell according to my graph, you would have always bought bitcoin cheap and sold it during each bubble. My graph by no means can predict lows and bubbles, only what the average price should be. So as the market continues from here on out, I'm personally going to buy below the trendline and sell somewhere (maybe 10-15%) above the trendline, rinse and repeat. People can speculate and try to sell higher before a bubble crashes, but I like playing the safer and more predictable way while still earning good revenue.

this makes sense. buy below, sell above is a decent strategy if you think that the best-fit line in question is predictive of a mean value. i was merely commenting on the posts you made which seemed to suggest that it should be predictive of the actual ticker price in any significant way.