Why Bitcoin is in Short Term Accumulation Stage before Halving FOMO

[Vertex_ICO]

Bitcoin has developed over a series of repetitive events, paramount among which is halving. The Bitcoin halving occurs roughly once every 4 years. It is an event designed to combat inflation, where the block reward for mining a block reduces by 50% from the previous cycle. The next Bitcoin halving event is a couple of months away and users are asking why Bitcoin is in short term accumulation stage before halving FOMO.

https://youtu.be/p3K44SKfmNg

What is the relationship between Halving and FOMO?

The acronym FOMO is as popular among Bitcoin and cryptocurrency users as it is college students. It means “Fear Of Missing Out”. In the crypto sense, it is used to explain the behaviour of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency traders who attempt to position themselves ahead of an anticipated rise in price. Based on the historical behaviour of the Bitcoin price, users appear to behave in a certain way ahead of the Bitcoin halving.

As mentioned above, every Bitcoin halving event reduces the amount in block reward by 50%. This happens roughly every 4 years and the ecosystem is getting set for the 4th halving in the life of Bitcoin. The estimated date for this is May 24th, 2020, at block number 630,000.

Since the recovery of Bitcoin from the crypto winter of 2018, the Bitcoin price has spent a lot of time around the $10,000 region. The up and down movement has remained in a side-ways channel that is a typical characteristic of an accumulation. Analysts and experienced traders describe this behaviour as something natural for the pre-halving season. The price seems to stall, before embarking on a major rally during such periods.

What Is The Implication Of The Bitcoin Halving?

Several factors come into play when considering this behaviour, particularly the “Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)”. This brings up the question: the Fear Of Missing Out on what?

When the Bitcoin halving occurs, it means that the rate of introducing new Bitcoins into the marketplace drops by as much as 50%. From an economic perspective, this means a drop in supply which creates scarcity. The implication of this is that there will be a rise in demand, the result of which would mean a surge in price.

Currently, the block reward for miners in the Bitcoin network is 12.5 BTC. By the next halving, it will become 6.25 BTC. Therefore, assuming that everything else remains the same, the demand will be expected to rise by 50%. But then, a lot of people expect that the demand of Bitcoin would be even greater, due to increasing awareness and adoption.

Bitcoin Price Predictions

There are bullish predictions already from top analysts suggesting that Bitcoin is in short term accumulation stage before halving FOMO. Rekt Capital predicts an increase within the range of 12,000% and 13,000% for Bitcoin after the next halving. This suggests that by the end of 2024, the Bitcoin price would be around $400,000.

Another popular analyst known as Crypto Michael recently shared his opinion on his Twitter handle about what he thinks about the current Bitcoin price behaviour. He also made a prediction about how the next Bitcoin halving will affect the price of the leading cryptocurrency.

https://twitter.com/CryptoMichNL/status/1171075957928710149?

Based on his analysis, the next stop for Bitcoin will be around the $25,000 region, a price that he thinks will be achieved by May 2020. Hence, most traders are currently sitting on their hands and avoiding any form of selling pressure in a FOMO situation. Rather, traders are accumulating Bitcoin on platforms like Vertex.Market that make purchases easy and seamless. The peer-to-peer platform provides liquidity and a flexible trading environment for users to buy Bitcoin.

At the moment, Bitcoin accumulation is very clear and obvious. The pioneer cryptocurrency is trading within a narrow horizontal channel, reflecting typical pre-halving behaviour. Many participants seem reluctant towards letting go of their holdings. For anyone willing to get into the market, the last quarter of 2019 appears to be a perfect opportunity in anticipation of the impending halving event. This also gives us an explanation as to why Bitcoin is in short term accumulation stage before halving FOMO.

https://medium.com/@official_83664/why-bitcoin-is-in-short-term-accumulation-stage-before-halving-fomo-6dcf8ab27316

[bhabygrim]

Very informative and well explained thread ,
I just want to add up if I am not mistaken every halving we would have another crypto or a copy of Bitcoin ,
Just like Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and they are trying to gain free crypto by holding Bitcoin before the halving (just my thought about FOMO on halving) .

[ILuckyGuyI]

Thank you for the information and prediction. In my opinion, after halving Bitcoin will start a new bull run and it will reach at least 25k dollars. By the way, it is too hard to predict 2024 while we don't even know tomorrow.

[pooya87]

this particular FOMO that you are talking about (due to block reward halving) is so far away since the event itself is about 7-8 months from now. before then we might see other FOMOs in the market. for example this current price drop has pushed a lot of the weaker hands out of the market, they will come back as soon as the reversal begins and price gets closer to $9k and we easily could see a shoot up back to above $11k when that happens.
the halving FOMO is mostly a hype that occurs about 1 month before the halving and it leads to a big rally not a recovery.

[CryptoBry]

As one of the many Bitcoin faithful holders, I am hoping that next year's scheduled halving can be the catalyst that Bitcoin needs to do the much-dreamed bull run or at least for the price to get near the $20K it once reached in 2017. There had been a good deal of good news so far this year but none of them was able to push Bitcoin higher than it should be. The commencement operation of the Bakkt platform instead of catapulting Bitcoin to new heights became a big disappointment (for now, at east). In the past, halving events were all taken as very positive news for Bitcoin and I am sure that in 2020 it can be the year;s most anticipated and celebrated occurrence. 

[Kakmakr]

The hype associated with the Halving event only starts in the first two to three weeks before the actual date and not 8 months in advance. People by nature will only react on things like this in the weeks building up to the event, because it gets maximum exposure in the media then and they see that there are only a couple of weeks left for them to buy some cheap coins. 

The actual event is mostly disappointing, because we do not see a massive drop in the price. The hype before the even shows a little drop in the price as more people are buying more coins and then everything goes back to normal. 

[NeuroticFish]

The hype associated with the Halving event only starts in the first two to three weeks before the actual date and not 8 months in advance.

Also the halving may be overrated. Just this year Bitcoin has (more than) doubled its price already. And at least for altcoins, I witnessed already 2 halvings which were expected to do wonders for the price and did nothing visible, at least not in the +/- ~1 month period.
Bitcoin is OK, there seems to be an upwards pressure but also a big level of speculation. The "doors" for the institutional money to come it are in place. We are good, just don't have to push it. A FOMO may be around the corner and that's not necessarily because of the halving.

[Lucius]

Very informative and well explained thread ,
I just want to add up if I am not mistaken every halving we would have another crypto or a copy of Bitcoin ,
Just like Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and they are trying to gain free crypto by holding Bitcoin before the halving (just my thought about FOMO on halving) .

Halving has nothing to do with forking of Bitcoin to any new shitcoin, this can happen anytime and you're absolutely wrong in your thinking. FOMO is well explained in OP, and it is something that has been used very successfully when things need to move in a certain direction.

The effects of halving will be felt only after it occurs, probably 6'+ months after. Fact that miners reward will go down for 50% only means that their profits will be cut in half if the price of BTC stays the same as it is today. Some reports say that the cost of mining 1 BTC in China is around $3000, so they will still operate with a profit.

Supply&demand thing in combination with halving and price increase is maybe not the best benchmark to look at, there are almost 18 million Bitcoins mined today, and I think there is sufficient stock on the market to cover all current needs. 1800 new mined coins today or 900 after the next halving will not affect the market too much.

[Jating]

We are still like 7 months before the halving so it's hard to speculate what will happen after that. But if we are going to look at its past history, the price doesn't shoot the next day, it takes months and years to finally see a new all time high.

As for the FOMO, every day we hear a lot of FOMO's so I'm not surprised that at we got closer to the actual date of the halving, we will see a lot of crypto related media picturing the halving as the only one that can boost the price (and I'm sure lots of noobs then will buy that news).

[Vertex_ICO]

Very informative and well explained thread ,
I just want to add up if I am not mistaken every halving we would have another crypto or a copy of Bitcoin ,
Just like Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and they are trying to gain free crypto by holding Bitcoin before the halving (just my thought about FOMO on halving) .

Hi! So what you're thinking of is a hard fork, the halvening is a different thing. Essentially, a halvening is when the reward for miners is halved as a way to combat inflation within the Bitcoin ecosystem. If you're interested in buying or selling Bitcoin, you should definitely check out Vertex. Vertex is a peer-to-peer marketplace, where you can buy other traders offerings or set your own. With more than 1300 coins to choose from, you're certain to find the right offering for you. Learn more at www.vertex.market

[BrewMaster]

halving is too far away, so how can bitcoin "currently" be in a "short term" accumulation before the halving FOMO?

besides, as i have said before bitcoin right now is getting ready for an immediate FOMO the only thing needed is repetition of a couple of months ago when price went above the resistance of that time at $4k to break out and we start seeing yet another big FOMO this year.
if that happens, we can easily see prices above $15k and closer to $20k in a very short time far before halving.

[GreenStox]

bitcoin has begun to show signs of an increase because many people already know there will be a price increase due to the influence of halving day that will happen soon, bitcoin prices are currently not suitable if it is made into the short term, the long term is better because it can provides many profits.

[boltz]

The next halv of bitcoin is suppose to be hit around May 2020 but I doubt the bull run will begin immediately after this and I think that it may needs another couple of months until the run starts. For now , its better and wiser to accumulate as much Bitcoin and altcoins as  you your pocket afford it to because as soon as we hit the new year my guess its that we will start to see FOMO slowly rising and I don't want to be in that zone.

[kryptqnick]

this particular FOMO that you are talking about (due to block reward halving) is so far away since the event itself is about 7-8 months from now. before then we might see other FOMOs in the market. for example this current price drop has pushed a lot of the weaker hands out of the market, they will come back as soon as the reversal begins and price gets closer to $9k and we easily could see a shoot up back to above $11k when that happens.
the halving FOMO is mostly a hype that occurs about 1 month before the halving and it leads to a big rally not a recovery.

Yeah, even though FOMO is common around halving, I don't feel like the original post justifies the opinion that we are currently in a short accumulation phase. We can now be in a long accumulation phase, in the phase of stabilization, in a bearish trend, in a correction phase, etc. It's too early to say. And since halving is not going to happen soon (according to the Binance academy, we are 202 days away from it), we can see other rises and drops which are not related to it. Moreover, if we take a look at this article, we can expect the price to reach the new ATH somewhere in 2021.