After the huge price increase at the end of November we saw a change in sentiment. The news that China, after years of aversion to Blockchain technology, suddenly sent positive signals about the technology to the world caused widespread positivism for the price in both the short and long term. A month later, this positivism had to make way for realism.
I am a little confused about the historical reference for this statement. We saw a 42% BTC price rise on about October 25, and then we have seen a trickle down and flat and various ongoing pushes in the downward direction since October 25th until present. Maybe we have a double bottom in the mid $6ks, but the ongoing BTC price seems way too much hovering in the lower $7ks in order to have any kind of rest assurance that the potential double bottom in the mid-$6ks is going to be the end to the correction... maybe 50/50.. as far as I can speculate regarding whether there is going to be any further correction that might take us below the current and so far $6,425 local low of this correction that happened a couple of days ago.
And, by the way, fuck China as being any kind of meaningfully important causal factor in regards to BTC price dynamics. You cannot really believe in any of these kinds of one-causal factors in regards to bitcoin price movements, which more likely a product of several factors - even if there could be some marginal effects that dominant factors, including "china" can have to influence BTC's price momentum from time to time.
The full price increase of more than 40% has been reset, and meanwhile we have seen Bitcoin trading below $ 7000 for the first time since May 2019. The China hype has since subsided and it appears that this news will push the price to new heights in the short term. It was certainly not unrealistic to think this after the huge price appreciation. But as so often this can only be determined in the weeks after the facts have taken place.
O.k... you do seem to be talking about the same things as me, which was a late price rise to $10,300 and then a somewhat drug out price drop over two months thereafter.
We now see that the bull trend that started on April 1, 2019 has broken. This means that the structure of the price no longer makes new peaks, but that we consistently create lower heights and troughs.
O.k. I largely accept your definition of falling out of a bull trend, that would largely cause the odds of the BTC price going down or staying flat greater than the odds for up, but I remain quite reluctant to concede that it is fair to assert that bull or bearish trends flip so quickly. I think that with bitcoin we have to zoom out a bit and think about BIGGER trends, and sure, even though we might be in the midst of a pretty seemingly deep and drawn out correction time, I doubt that it is enough of a break down or even a time period in which we can really assert that the transition into the bull trend has been broken.
Of course, assessments can differ on these kinds of assessments and those are the kinds of thinking differences that contribute to the assigning of probabilities regarding which way people are going to differ in terms of where they believe that the BTC price is going to go from here.. whether short term, medium term or longer term.
Until this structure is broken again, we expect that the price will not increase significantly in the short to medium term.
"we"? hahahahahaha Are these really your words? Even though there have been very difficult to substantiate speculations that you might have a team, your style has not usually been to employ the royal "we" that is what wannabe sorcerers tend to do.. or even troll/shills, and maybe you just slipped up here?
Regarding your substantive claim, sure... if "we" (meaning the BTC price) is kind of caught in a price range that is in the lower end of a consolidation range, then it can take a while to play out... consolidation tends to signify that neither side is really getting their way and the price is continuing to stay in an area until maybe one side or another achieves a lucky break in their preferred direction.... and if we are in a bull market then the odds for up are greater than the odds for down and if we are in a bear market the odds for down are greater than the odds for up, but no matter which market we are in, the price could end up breaking in the direction that is opposite of what the odds would predict.. which could even end up changing what kind of market we are in after the break versus before the break had occurred.
Rather we are pushing for a further price drop to the level of $ 6000 per Bitcoin.
These really your words? Sounds more bearish than your usual unfettered and frequently overly unrealistic bullish optimism.
![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
However, this is guesswork and it does not change our vision for the long term.
You taking notes from TOAA? or lambie? Really, "our"?
Substantively... you are saying "down before up" hahahahaha... I have heard that before. Maybe it will happen? Maybe not.
As an investor, it is important that the average trend moves upwards over the years.
As an investor, I don't think that the trend has to move up, except over the longer term or at the time that the investor is going to need his/her (their... to use the plural) money.. Maybe that is what you are asserting... and further investors surely prefer that their investments are profitable, but some kinds of investments are risky and/or a hedge, so profits are not necessarily guaranteed in a kind of needing way, but it is important in a kind of assessment regarding the extent to which an investment might have been either profitable or otherwise served its hedging purposes (which might not have been profitable, but were still serving insurance purposes).
This is still the case with Bitcoin. The price fluctuations in the short term are irrelevant if you have an investment horizon of 3-5 years. We also see that in 2019, Bitcoin is still the best-performing asset worldwide.
These are agreeable and true... historically bitcoin has always been profitable for anyone who hung onto it for at least 3.5 years (which would be the employment of various variants of buying, accumulating, holding), but of course, history does not provide any kind of guarantee of future profitability or the timeline that will be necessary in future in order for the investment to play out. Furthermore, if investors attempt to play around with their BTC investment too much, by getting in and out and some other strategizing things like that, they might have ended up losing in what should have been a profitable market, overall.
If we give feedback to the previous cycles that Bitcoin has gone through, we see absolutely nothing to worry about. When Bitcoin reached the unlikely level of $ 1000 in December 2013 and then experienced a huge relapse, it took 162 weeks before we had reached this level again.
Fair enough rendition of history, and again, history does not guarantee future results even though there seem to be a lot of very convincing and solid price modeling that accounts for the history and puts pretty damned good odds on continued future upwards BTC price movements.
In December 2017, about exactly 4 years later, Bitcoin reached the level of nearly $ 20,000. After the decline we have seen through 2018 and the huge price increase in 2019, we are only 100 weeks away in this cycle.
fair enough.
We therefore expect that 2020 will be a positive year for Bitcoin.
1) royal "we" again?
![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif)
2) I agree that the odds for overall up in 2020 seem to be greater than the odds for flat or for down, which kind of suggests that we are still in a bull market... even if the price rise might be gradual or it might end up exploding .. hard to know for sure regarding degree, but the odds for up during 2020, or by the end of 2020, seem decent, at least, maybe even better than 50%
Sometime in the coming months, we expect the price to form a new plateau, the next upward trend of which will start.
Though i'm feeling good to be back up 7000$ at this time
![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
Strange way of saying that, which does not really seem to be your writing style.. but whatever... we have had stranger things happening around these parts, sometimes.
![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)