Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

[zasad@]

If you build graphs with such accuracy, then you can pull the owl on the globe for a long time
I used to read PlanB forecasts, but now it looks like a scenario for trapping new hamsters.
Even if the price drops to $15,000 in the coming months, it will not be noticeable on his chart.

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[fillippone]

Wow.
A very nice article from Croesus about Stock to Flow article:

Stock-to-Flow Reality

You may think the Stock-to-Flow Model fell short, but it's still directionally correct, and here's why[/section]

In this paper, Croesus analysed why the S2F model "failed" only to understand that probably, due to overconfidence, PlanB didn't do enough to "correct" people's misunderstanding of the model and pumped it, twice, to the higher and higher target price.

Of course, when those prices didn't realise, people were mad t the model rather than at their interpretation.

Croesus then highlights some improvements for the model, such that his informative power is more excellent next time.
Interesting
It is helpful, above all, to refute the most common criticism of the model itself.

[fillippone]

I am resuming this thread as PlanB today tweeted an interesting concept:



Buying the BTC 6 months before the living and selling it 18 months after it, significantly overperforms the BTC price.
I suspect it also reduces the series' volatility (improved shape ratio).
 

[JayJuanGee]

I am resuming this thread as PlanB today tweeted an interesting concept:

Buying the BTC 6 months before the living and selling it 18 months after it, significantly overperforms the BTC price.
I suspect it also reduces the series' volatility (improved shape ratio).

I don't mind these ideas.. they sound all fine and dandy, but are we going to trade on this?  especially the selling part?  And if we sell, then how much are we going to sell?  more than 50% of our stash? or less than 50% of our stash?  selling 10% or 20% might be acceptable to me, but any more than that, and I am not really with it. .nad then if I sell then I am anxious to get back in, and sure.. maybe 6 months before the halvening would be acceptable, but I can imagine myself feeling a bit uncomfortable staying out for that long... but I suppose that if it is ONLY 10% or 20% of my stash I might be less nervous, but if it were higher amounts of my stash, I would likely be even more nervous to get back in a lot sooner than 6 months prior to the halvening.