Bitcoin & Bubble Comparison on Charts

[teosanru]

I posted a thread a few days ago which displayed why BTC is different from a normal Bubble. But here I am seeing it's comparison as a bubble. But a Bubble which has already been busted but now is moving at it's mean level. So I think even if BTC was a bubble earlier it has returned to the mean mark and now we have a smooth way ahead.

[1714806492]

1714806492

[1714806492]

1714806492

[20kevin20]

I get what you mean, thanks for the charts. I used to love playing with the charts and predicting the price and had a very big success a few years ago, but now I'm kinda afraid to do it. Would be nice if this prediction comes true. I just hope it's not going to be all about the money though - I really love how mass media's focus is pointed all towards BTC when its price rises so much. That grabs the attention of many people not having ever used BTC before.

[DaftAjax]

A bubble is indeed a bubble. 

When it happened in 2017, I bet everybody freaked out to find out that the price almost hit $20k and immediately bought in masses. Then when the bubble popped, so does their investment. People who HODL since 2014 are the real OGs who probably won't lose anything at this point.

It's nice every now and then to see Bitcoin be in its mean mark. But I doubt many people would start selling soon, 'cause probably the majority of people from mid to late 2017 bought Bitcoin at least $9k.

[DaftAjax]

Would be nice if this prediction comes true. I just hope it's not going to be all about the money though - I really love how mass media's focus is pointed all towards BTC when its price rises so much. That grabs the attention of many people not having ever used BTC before.

This is not a prediction. As you can see from the graph, the line ended in Oct 2019 (it's live).

It also confuses the hell out of everyone. They've been misled, hoping that the price hike from 2017 was real. And a lot of people (investors/companies) immediately invest in it. That's why the price kept on rising, until a sudden stop. Because everybody already bought some, and hope that it will still go up. So all of 'em HODL the hell out of it. Then it dropped all the way down.

[teosanru]

I get what you mean, thanks for the charts. I used to love playing with the charts and predicting the price and had a very big success a few years ago, but now I'm kinda afraid to do it. Would be nice if this prediction comes true. I just hope it's not going to be all about the money though - I really love how mass media's focus is pointed all towards BTC when its price rises so much. That grabs the attention of many people not having ever used BTC before.

haha this is how it works. The whole world follows you when your value is high otherwise no one cares about you. BTC got all the limelight when it's price was continuously increasing the whole world media was talking about BTC and how it is a bubble and now when the dusts have settle media barely notices the existence of BTC.

A bubble is indeed a bubble.  

When it happened in 2017, I bet everybody freaked out to find out that the price almost hit $20k and immediately bought in masses. Then when the bubble popped, so does their investment. People who HODL since 2014 are the real OGs who probably won't lose anything at this point.

It's nice every now and then to see Bitcoin be in its mean mark. But I doubt many people would start selling soon, 'cause probably the majority of people from mid to late 2017 bought Bitcoin at least $9k.

Actually a Bubble is a bubble but after the bubble has burst it's no more a bubble. BTC corrected itself towards the mean line. and the climb from 3k to 12k properly proves that how BTC still has a lot of capability and is nothing like a faded scam which goes out of the market once it has been busted.

[mr3dds]

Interesting. They do look simile. However, I don't think that btc is a bubble.
I think btc is not the best blockchain. However, being first is making it a king which affect the price of all other coins.
I think this won't last longer. Soon, the btc price will not affect the price of other coins.

[franky1]

gotta laugh.

guy sees a chart and starts drawing a red line.
the start point has no fixed reason
the angle has no fixed reason
th end point has no fixed reason

in short anyone can draw any line at any angle

but take this below


here the lines have meaning. the lows of where people refuse to sell below. lets call it the value line
now anything above it is speculation. and if the chart is very very far above the line then that is way over valued bubble area. if the price is near the line then thats good value area.
and thats all people need to know.
the OP thinks his chart shows people in despair recently.. reality is people think its good value and time to buy in

yes there are peaks and dips above value. again thats called speculation and yes there are periods of greed and despair. but that emotional drama doesnt matter as one persons despair is another persons bargain day
if you know where the value line sits below all that drama. you are then able to see the big picture and not get emotional

as for the curvy line meant to show market psychology.. anyone can do that.. but what the OP's curvy line only shows is the hoarders remorse psychology.. heres my hoarders remorse(top) and my new investor(bottom) version


oh.. and by the way. hoarders remorse is not despair near the end. its actually 'well its still higher than i bought in at years ago
for instance. i bought in when btc was $6. so i was still happy at previous years $4K AFTER the $20k correction. yep. i did not despair

[timerland]

This is a pretty good comparison and also shows a lot of people about what happened in 2017 with the price climb was pretty dodgy and could have been described as a bubble.

I think after that thing burst it ended up correcting itself and then things got a lot more stable and as you said, it's moving at a mean level.

Nice graphs!

[Jating]

Bitcoin's boom and bust are just a cycle and it exactly happens every four years, (which is the scheduled block halving). So we might see the bubble being burst in 2017, but it doesn't mean that it's the end of bitcoin.

And after that followed a long bearish trend which bitcoin proponents will argue that it has been busted. But wait, the halving will come in 2020 that will ignite the market again and see who are going to see another bubble and another all time high in the future, and then followed by another burst, then repeats the cycle all over again.

[glendall]

your analysis is very good, but I have my own opinion about chart movement , bitcoin is now entering a bullish level and will go to the top of the bubble, if you go back a few years back, BTC today is like the middle of 2015, I don't force to believe this, but I'm always sure about charts, because charts never lie.

[Wexnident]

I saw your last charts and their pretty informative just like this one. Thanks for these charts though, they really help in reading how bitcoin flowed compared to bubbles. Observing from the chart, we can assume that bitcoin is actually returning to the market price which we could see. It's nice to see the price roaming above the mean this few weeks. Hopefully it stays that way or at least maintains its changes above the mean. The bullish run by 2020 that most people are waiting for because of halving should occur without much suspense. I kinda missed my chance back then cause I had the chance to invest before the bubble but i decided against it cause of how the cryptoworld was still unknown to modt.

[pooya87]

that picture from TradingView doesn't make any sense at all. in my opinion every single point on that chart from the beginning (take off) to the end (return to mean) are wrong. for example the take off here is set at around $3k while it started before that around $1200 when the previous ATH was broken. not to mention that in another view, the real "take off" started in 2015 when price reversed from the bottom and started going from $150 to $300 and had its first 100% rise.

[franky1]

that picture from TradingView doesn't make any sense at all. in my opinion every single point on that chart from the beginning (take off) to the end (return to mean) are wrong. for example the take off here is set at around $3k while it started before that around $1200 when the previous ATH was broken. not to mention that in another view, the real "take off" started in 2015 when price reversed from the bottom and started going from $150 to $300 and had its first 100% rise.

thats the point i was making
anyone can choose any date. to get a chart that would differ if the dates were changed.
anyone can draw a line at any start point, end point, and any angle
and then turn it into any story.
EG take the same curvy angle. you can then choose do you tell the hoarders despair story or the new buyers discount after correction story

in the grand scheme of things. its useless information the OP is providing. as there are dozens of variables/stories that could be applied/changed.

all it does it make it appear that the OP APPEARS smart. yet anyone thinking beyond the carefully selected story the OP chose, the opposite can also apply, aswell as, if the date were changed slightly or the angle of the line changed. his whole notion wouldnt apply at all
EG why choose jan 2017
if the OP chose october 17 to oct 19 there would be no take off, no paradigm.

he found a narrative and then searched for dates that matched his story.
problem is there are many stories and many narratives that can be made choosing different dates and line angles

[teosanru]

gotta laugh.

guy sees a chart and starts drawing a red line.
the start point has no fixed reason
the angle has no fixed reason
th end point has no fixed reason

in short anyone can draw any line at any angle

but take this below


here the lines have meaning. the lows of where people refuse to sell below. lets call it the value line
now anything above it is speculation. and if the chart is very very far above the line then that is way over valued bubble area. if the price is near the line then thats good value area.
and thats all people need to know.
the OP thinks his chart shows people in despair recently.. reality is people think its good value and time to buy in

yes there are peaks and dips above value. again thats called speculation and yes there are periods of greed and despair. but that emotional drama doesnt matter as one persons despair is another persons bargain day
if you know where the value line sits below all that drama. you are then able to see the big picture and not get emotional

as for the curvy line meant to show market psychology.. anyone can do that.. but what the OP's curvy line only shows is the hoarders remorse psychology.. heres my hoarders remorse(top) and my new investor(bottom) version


oh.. and by the way. hoarders remorse is not despair near the end. its actually 'well its still higher than i bought in at years ago
for instance. i bought in when btc was $6. so i was still happy at previous years $4K AFTER the $20k correction. yep. i did not despair

Actually the chart I posted was roughly at an angle of 30 degree moreover it was an internal trend line which connected roughly three Supports & resistances created over a long term which I think are perfect for creating a trendline.
Moreover we are talking about the majority of folks around here maybe individual opinions can vary. Take a set of 100 random people and perform such an experiment 80 of them would definitely fit on my chart. Not a lot of people can develop this Investor mentality even if they can it's definitely difficult to maintain your patience and averaging out when price is going on the down side. So this chart basically depicts the mentality of those who considered BTC as a bubble.

[buwaytress]

that picture from TradingView doesn't make any sense at all. in my opinion every single point on that chart from the beginning (take off) to the end (return to mean) are wrong. for example the take off here is set at around $3k while it started before that around $1200 when the previous ATH was broken. not to mention that in another view, the real "take off" started in 2015 when price reversed from the bottom and started going from $150 to $300 and had its first 100% rise.

That's the problem with Bitcoin being such a new asset with an even younger market. In fact, I wouldn't even take any market data from before 2015 -- too few traders and exchanges therefore too few stakeholders, too little means to understand how those numbers were taken and at what volumes, too concentrated geographically even.

Zoom in and out, and we get to play with all kinds of different numbers and patterns.

But maybe that's the whole fun of it.

[Mandoy]

You have a good technical chart analysis and you have mentioned several trends in the chart and its good to look at. But I disagree with you that the bitcoin bubble is different, from my perspective the bubble is just like any crypto bubble out there that is caused by hype in the market. Also drawing straight lines to get the mean is not so convincing and is not a good guide to do some trading. To really be effective on trading we must not just rely on the charts otherwise we will end up losing on the end.

[teosanru]

that picture from TradingView doesn't make any sense at all. in my opinion every single point on that chart from the beginning (take off) to the end (return to mean) are wrong. for example the take off here is set at around $3k while it started before that around $1200 when the previous ATH was broken. not to mention that in another view, the real "take off" started in 2015 when price reversed from the bottom and started going from $150 to $300 and had its first 100% rise.

That's the problem with Bitcoin being such a new asset with an even younger market. In fact, I wouldn't even take any market data from before 2015 -- too few traders and exchanges therefore too few stakeholders, too little means to understand how those numbers were taken and at what volumes, too concentrated geographically even.

Zoom in and out, and we get to play with all kinds of different numbers and patterns.

But maybe that's the whole fun of it.

Yeah I agree to this fact, Any asset like stocks, gold and others have more than 20-30 years of technical analysis which we can rely upon and trade according to Moreover we even have proper evidences where market bounced up, crashed and then recovered. If you see the housing mortgage crash of 2008 in US real Estate you would see a same pattern. After a very sharp increase in prices of property they just collapsed absolutely. But after collapse they came back to the mean level. This is what I wanted to say about bitcoin also.

[CryptoBry]

This is a good education on Bitcoin Bubble and if there is one thing I learn here is that Bitcoin can go into a bubble phase, go popped and yet it is not going anywhere or be dead just like the many other examples (remember the Tulip craze which is also popularly compared to Bitcoin). Now, for people who entered Bitcoin like say when the price was just $200 or even $500, they would not care anything about bubble because if Bitcoin can get back to $1,000 they are not losing anything but the same can't be said with people who foolishly bought Bitcoin ATH of almost $20K...either they take a big loss or continually wait until a big, big bull run can occur.

[AniviaBtc]

I posted a thread a few days ago which displayed why BTC is different from a normal Bubble. But here I am seeing it's comparison as a bubble. But a Bubble which has already been busted but now is moving at it's mean level. So I think even if BTC was a bubble earlier it has returned to the mean mark and now we have a smooth way ahead.

This is a perfect comparison in knowing the power of bitcoin when it comes to increasing by understanding the chart. But don't be too confident because anytime bitcoin can be dominated. Many said "bubble is a bubble" but the question is "until when?" there's nothing permanent here.

We're looking forward to another bubble again in the market in the near future.

[teosanru]

This is a good education on Bitcoin Bubble and if there is one thing I learn here is that Bitcoin can go into a bubble phase, go popped and yet it is not going anywhere or be dead just like the many other examples (remember the Tulip craze which is also popularly compared to Bitcoin). Now, for people who entered Bitcoin like say when the price was just $200 or even $500, they would not care anything about bubble because if Bitcoin can get back to $1,000 they are not losing anything but the same can't be said with people who foolishly bought Bitcoin ATH of almost $20K...either they take a big loss or continually wait until a big, big bull run can occur.

Yes obviously there are always certain survivors when the bubble pops however we have seen with examples in traditional markets that these people don't suffer in long term. For example the 2008 housing crash took some time to repair itself but now the houses are at the same price. Similarly 1929 great depression too was a major collapse but it was nothing like that we couldn't get ourselves over it. So I think this one is same for BTC it's just the market momentum and it's for the first time we are facing this in BTC.

I posted a thread a few days ago which displayed why BTC is different from a normal Bubble. But here I am seeing it's comparison as a bubble. But a Bubble which has already been busted but now is moving at it's mean level. So I think even if BTC was a bubble earlier it has returned to the mean mark and now we have a smooth way ahead.

This is a perfect comparison in knowing the power of bitcoin when it comes to increasing by understanding the chart. But don't be too confident because anytime bitcoin can be dominated. Many said "bubble is a bubble" but the question is "until when?" there's nothing permanent here.

We're looking forward to another bubble again in the market in the near future.

Yes atleast to those people you can proudly say that it might have been a bubble in the past but it definitely is not a bubble now. So just take chill about it and better get your hands in market because Bitcoin is here to stay