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Author Topic: A huge recession could be on its way - sources  (Read 398 times)
20kevin20
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October 12, 2019, 05:28:40 AM
Merited by suchmoon (4), DiamondCardz (1), DdmrDdmr (1), Kyraishi (1)
 #1

We're taking a look at a world having more, MUCH more debt than it generates. It's getting closer and closer to the impossibility of paying the many-trillions debt and that's sad because it means the chance of a recession just got boosted.

Something weird is going on now with the bank accounts. I just read a thread here regarding India's bank accounts being wiped (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5191378.0) and it reminded me of an article I read only a few days ago regarding the Turkish bank accounts being frozen up. This doesn't look like a coincidence to me, and what's scarier is the amount of events worldwide we're waiting to happen, the biggest ones being Brexit and the American elections getting closer. We're confronting many economical events and that could bring down the system. It's good for those who've prepared, but it's gonna be a pain for whoever isn't ready for it.

Here's the source of the Turkish government freezing up +3.3million bank accounts: https://news.bitcoin.com/turkish-government-freezes-over-3-million-bank-accounts/. That's a creepy number, it affects over 4% of Turkey's population. What's even scarier is the reason they've frozen up their accounts is because they had passed a debt threshold, now go back to the first paragraph I wrote here and read that again: the chances of being able to pay the world debt is getting closer to impossible.

Only a recession could save us. This is not a bubble anymore, there's something bigger coming up. Now it's not about the USA, it's about the entire world being stuck here. Many say the consequences of a recession cannot be clearly predicted as it differed completely from one crisis to another, but I think it is pretty clear that a recession happening today would have a disastrous aftermath.

Take it back to a few months ago when we had the yield curve inverted (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/yield-curve-inversion-deepest-since-2007-flashes-recession-signal-2019-8-1028478146). It wasn't the first sign of a stock crash, but it was a very good warning for anybody who hasn't prepared yet for what's to come. If 5 years ago mentioning a stock market crash was stupid, today more than 50% of my friends think it's on its way. That's confirmed by some statistics made by Business Insider (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/next-recession-metlife-survey-shows-americans-expect-one-arent-prepared-2019-10-1028591353).

Now to whoever isn't prepared and is wondering what they can do to prepare, there isn't really a "recipe" of getting yourself and your family ready for what's to come. Bitcoin hasn't been through a recession before (ignore the 2009-2012 one as almost nobody used BTC at the time), so the price would probably go absolutely crazy as nobody will know whether in a recession BTC could be considered a safe haven asset or not due to the fact that it only works through electronic devices.

I'd suggest having both a reserve in precious metals and in BTC. If a crash happens, you have both of them and I can assure anybody the price of silver and gold would rise substantially in case of one. In fact, it's not the price of the precious metals rising but the fiat currencies being slowly devalued by the crisis.

It's scary, but it'll happen sooner or later. I don't understand how somebody could take it as a joke or as a very small probability... it's happened so many times before, it's an usual period of the economy. We have even Warren Buffet predicting a recession (https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-warren-buffett-predicting-a-stock-market-crash/).. But millennials haven't been through a recession yet so not going through something your entire life might make you believe it's just a story and will always be like that.

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October 12, 2019, 06:04:52 AM
 #2

That's some good analysis for sure mate, it's crazy how fast everyone's debt is going up with the new tech leaps we are seeing.

There is something foreshadowing from all of these events with banks you've listed and it does make a lot of sense there is a recession on the come up.

Crazy work Kevin, nothing much I can add here except mostly agreeing with everything your saying. There's a very real chance this does happen.

 
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October 12, 2019, 06:43:47 AM
 #3

This has already been predicted since months and people are actually making some comments so as how we could actually be benefited by holding cryptocurrencies and all when the government and the banks are going down , what I think is the government is more developed today and will be able to handle these quite efficiently , if it does happen I think we need to be prepared in every way possible.



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October 12, 2019, 07:30:02 AM
 #4

I agree that a recession is on the way, and it will be global - economies are too inter-related nowadays for a crisis in one big country not to affect everywhere else. Debt is a big problem, we live in a consumer society and there is a lot of credit card debt, but mortgages are a bigger issue. House prices are still too high, but we now have a situation where for some years interest rates have been very low, and many people have taken out mortgages at these low rates... which effectively prevents the government from raising rates. They know that if they do, then a lot of people will end up defaulting on mortgage payments, which will be a huge problem.
The main cause for concern though is simply that no lessons have been learned from the last crash. A few half-hearted preventative measures have been put in place, but this is just papering over cracks.

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October 12, 2019, 07:46:47 AM
 #5

Quote
Now to whoever isn't prepared and is wondering what they can do to prepare, there isn't really a "recipe" of getting yourself and your family ready for what's to come. Bitcoin hasn't been through a recession before (ignore the 2009-2012 one as almost nobody used BTC at the time), so the price would probably go absolutely crazy as nobody will know whether in a recession BTC could be considered a safe haven asset or not due to the fact that it only works through electronic devices.

Definitely, the global economy is edging towards a huge recession that can affect everybody from big economies to small ones. The debt trap will soon be roaring its ugly head and no one will be spared. Countries and people who are not entertaining the possibility of this major setback will surely find so many shocks and surprises. This is going to be wiping out a big chunk of people's accumulated wealth and that is why we have to be prepared for this coming malady and man-made catastrophe.

Bitcoin will then soon be tested and we can see how it will be behaving under the pressure of the intensity of the recession...will it make the coin soar and stronger or will it go south instead? Let's see what can be. For now, we should accumulate as much Bitcoin as we can as a way to store more value as our insurance in the expected economic conflagration. Hopefully, the recession can be the fire to test the mettle of Bitcoin and make it stronger and more valuable.

 
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October 12, 2019, 08:24:13 AM
 #6

What happened in Cyprus is going to repeat and I have no doubt regarding that. A lot of people assume that the money in their bank accounts is safe. Unfortunately, that is not the case. When the next recession occurs, there is a very good chance that the government can seize not only the money which lies on your savings account, but also your gold bars, stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.

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October 12, 2019, 10:25:43 AM
 #7

Yep, bank accounts getting frozen happens and it isn't a new thing.  Just a few years ago, Cyprus had the same problem if I'm not mistaken (or Greece; I can't remember since I don't follow news from Europe in general). 

Not sure I'd read too much into this, although in the last year I've read any number of predictions that the next great recession is on it's way.  What worries me is that the price of precious metals has been slowly rising as if institutional investors know something is coming...and it very well could be true.  The stock market has been inflated past rational prices for years now and the world probably is overdue for an enormous correction if not a global recession. 

I'm not saying it isn't coming, just that the banking situation with frozen accounts might be a red herring.
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October 13, 2019, 04:49:19 AM
 #8

Hopefully, the recession can be the fire to test the mettle of Bitcoin and make it stronger and more valuable.

I believe the idea of Bitcoin investment/holding during a recession will be a big fear and confusion until an event like gold/silver confiscation takes place, where Bitcoin becomes a "king" that is way harder to find & take thanks to the possibility of hiding even billions in a small piece of paper with a private key on it.

As it's never been used in a recession before, it wouldn't surprise me if there's one point where it simply crashes like never before. The biggest crash in its history was in 2011 (-93%), and that percentage would bring it today down to around $600. At the same time though, I do believe it's not going to be a long lived crash.. but out of confusion and fear, the stakes are pretty high for it to happen IMO.

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October 13, 2019, 06:11:54 AM
 #9

Since the previous recession the banks didn't recover properly (and governments rely on banks). Also around the world it was an unexpected spread of populist governments. You know, those who "help" the population promising money they have no means to collect in the first place. Of course this made people poorer and the government debts higher.

Bitcoin and crypto allowed the creation of businesses that took a good slice of banks' profit and maybe made some of them rethink (and maybe make cheaper) some services.

The banks' rules for investments and crediting became much more strict since the previous recession and their appeal for doing business seem to have lowered too.


I see now the banks like they'd have their legs tied together. They've stopped walking. And sooner or later one or more could fall (not forever!).
An interesting thing is that everybody is super cautious on talking about recession. Like if they would deny it, it would not come. But the clouds are gathering.


OP's advice is great, diversifying is the best route if one has the funds for it. Bitcoin price in fiat, the fact that Bitcoin can easily traded for fiat, is a benefit and a curse; when needed one can quickly sell Bitcoin for fiat for other needs, which in case of recession could be big.

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October 13, 2019, 06:33:01 AM
 #10

No doubt this is a really good analysis of World's economy however yhe assumptions you are taking can even be independent events which do not have any inter relation with each other. Moreover such events are pretty common. Talking about India just a couple of years ago a defaulter defaulted ₹11000 crore from a major bank. Moreover bank you have mentioned is pretty small almost negligible considering the Indian economy. Such events happen every year in various country. Your concern is genuine but I think in bigger picture i Don't see a negative growth or an extraordinary positive growth which is number one indication of recession.


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October 13, 2019, 06:49:57 AM
 #11

Over the past few years, trade wars and the collapse of wealthy nations like Venezuela have shocked and greatly affected the world's economy.
I think these are the turning points that make the economy worse and at some point, when the debts become too big and cannot cover up anymore, the economic crisis will happen soon.
We should prepare for this by buying lots of land or gold for storage.

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October 13, 2019, 07:47:33 AM
 #12

I'd suggest having both a reserve in precious metals and in BTC. If a crash happens, you have both of them and I can assure anybody the price of silver and gold would rise substantially in case of one. In fact, it's not the price of the precious metals rising but the fiat currencies being slowly devalued by the crisis.

This is a tricky topic. A lot depends on whether it's simply a recession on the way, or a currency crisis characterized by fiat collapse. There's a huge difference. In a typical recession, cash is still king. Consider gold's performance during 2008; it dropped 34% between Q1 and Q3.

Fiat collapse is another story. If the dollar or other major currencies go the way of the dodo, all bets are off. Hard money like gold and (and quite possibly BTC) would be in extremely high demand.

It's impossible to predict when fiat collapse could occur. It's easier to bet the trend and assume that we're looking at another short-lived financial crisis and recession.

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October 13, 2019, 11:28:10 AM
 #13

Over the past few years, trade wars and the collapse of wealthy nations like Venezuela have shocked and greatly affected the world's economy.
I think these are the turning points that make the economy worse and at some point, when the debts become too big and cannot cover up anymore, the economic crisis will happen soon.
We should prepare for this by buying lots of land or gold for storage.
Earlier Zimbabwe collapsed too. Many turning points have happened in the economy since past decade. Not all of them have led to recession. Recession happens when there is a major outbreak of supply in economy which is not met by equal demand from people not just some shocks. Even in the 2008 crash happened because loans were defaulted at a very high scale thus creating a supply of property in the economy not met by an equivalent demand. Thus leading to collapse.


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October 13, 2019, 11:32:55 AM
 #14

The only country where private debt is going down is Britain - and that's because Brexit has acted like a wake-up call and forced people to put their finances in order so that they're in good shape to deal with the future.

Last month British businesses repaid £3bn in debt, which is a measure of how seriously they're taking things.

 
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October 13, 2019, 12:02:20 PM
 #15

The mass speculations are the US will deep into a recession in 2021. (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/next-recession-trump-survey-shows-most-economists-predict-downturn-2021-2019-8-1028456445).

Such a recession will be great for anybody with free cash and coins. I will do my best to accumulate as much as I can till then and if there is a real recession - to turn most of it into real estates. I've missed the options 2008 crisis gave to the people with wealth, I don't want to repeat this mistake again.



 
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October 13, 2019, 12:05:33 PM
 #16

I'd suggest having both a reserve in precious metals and in BTC. If a crash happens, you have both of them and I can assure anybody the price of silver and gold would rise substantially in case of one. In fact, it's not the price of the precious metals rising but the fiat currencies being slowly devalued by the crisis.

This is a tricky topic. A lot depends on whether it's simply a recession on the way, or a currency crisis characterized by fiat collapse. There's a huge difference. In a typical recession, cash is still king. Consider gold's performance during 2008; it dropped 34% between Q1 and Q3.

Fiat collapse is another story. If the dollar or other major currencies go the way of the dodo, all bets are off. Hard money like gold and (and quite possibly BTC) would be in extremely high demand.

It's impossible to predict when fiat collapse could occur. It's easier to bet the trend and assume that we're looking at another short-lived financial crisis and recession.
Wouldn't the economy crash if fiat collapsed? Like every financial transaction in the world would end up being dead at that point, and could cause large - scale damages all over the globe. And I don't think the government would provide help to those people whom have no contingency plans in case of such events happening. And even if they did, it would only cause more and more debt of the people to the government, essentially killing the country itself from the inside.

 
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October 13, 2019, 12:09:00 PM
 #17

Evryone is writing about recession. So, what to do right now? Buy gold?
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October 13, 2019, 01:11:32 PM
 #18

Evryone is writing about recession. So, what to do right now? Buy gold?

Pay down debt and build a stash of cash. In recessions everything becomes cheap - imagine if you had a lot of cash in 2008 and could have bought Google shares at the bottom. You'd have made a 600% return.

 
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October 13, 2019, 06:45:09 PM
 #19

Freezing assets in Turkish banks is nothing new, it has happened in the past before and it has happened recently as well, it is mostly due to foreign exchange more than just getting your money, they don't like to get your money and leave you broke, that is not the issue.

If you have dollars in your account or euros they freeze your account, get your dollars and euros, they give you Turkish lira at the same rate as market (so not screwing you with exchange rates) and just keep the foreign exchange, they are basically making you forex forcefully because they want everyone to have Turkish lira and use that instead of dollars, they lack foreign exchange in the central bank which leaves them powerless against other nations so they collect it from the population this way, it is not ideal but it is not "my government took my money" level neither.
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October 13, 2019, 08:19:07 PM
 #20

This is a good time to get your finances in order. Should this finally happen you can expect properties to get dropped hard. If you have the money to buy them, then you can go shopping and then hold on to them till the economy recovers.

Might be also wise to acquire some crypto, at least as much as one can afford without going broke. Actually having cold, hard cash stocked also won't hurt.

It's scary, but it'll happen sooner or later. I don't understand how somebody could take it as a joke or as a very small probability... it's happened so many times before, it's an usual period of the economy. We have even Warren Buffet predicting a recession (https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-warren-buffett-predicting-a-stock-market-crash/).. But millennials haven't been through a recession yet so not going through something your entire life might make you believe it's just a story and will always be like that.

Didn't Buffett made most of his money during the last recession? As for millenials, do they even have enough savings to be wiped out? I don't think so.

Yep, bank accounts getting frozen happens and it isn't a new thing.  Just a few years ago, Cyprus had the same problem if I'm not mistaken (or Greece; I can't remember since I don't follow news from Europe in general). 

It was Greece but it was from their government declaring bankruptcy. They froze bank accounts to prevent a bank run.
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