Bitcoin Halving and price History Analysis on Chart

[exstasie]

First block halving, the bottom is $2.00 and then it went $2.70 in 500 days approximately.

Second block halving, the bottom is $660 and we already know how high it gets in 2017 in around 1000 days.

And as the graph states, the bottom is $3100-$3200 in 2018, could it reach another all-time-high in 2000(?) days? What will be the price then? your guess is as good as mine    

Cool theory but with only 2 data points, it's just as likely there is no sustainable pattern at all, or that the cycle would take between 500 and 1,000 days.

Extrapolation is fun but chances are the next cycle won't look like the previous ones. The 2018 bottom already diverged significantly from the 2014-2015 bottoming cycle, reversing into a bull market much faster. This supports an alternate theory that the cycles might accelerate as investors try to front-run each other before the next bubble.

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[teosanru]

It is really happening the halving and the effect it can have with the price of bitcoin, we are  now in the third time halving is occurring and so far it is all positive but what if the halving now will be crucial for Bitcoin and end up negatively well we will never know, and I guess that is why we have an indicator for all-time low as well to simply see the support levels for bitcoin and that is good that we all care not only for all-time highs but all-time low as well,

This is a good analysis and an indicator that all criteria have met for us to proceed to another all-time high if the halving will be successful.

I think all time low is not an indicator it's just a point where btc reached and supports and resistances aren't indicators too they are called pivot points in general.

First block halving, the bottom is $2.00 and then it went $2.70 in 500 days approximately.

Second block halving, the bottom is $660 and we already know how high it gets in 2017 in around 1000 days.

And as the graph states, the bottom is $3100-$3200 in 2018, could it reach another all-time-high in 2000(?) days? What will be the price then? your guess is as good as mine   

Cool theory but with only 2 data points, it's just as likely there is no sustainable pattern at all, or that the cycle would take between 500 and 1,000 days.

Extrapolation is fun but chances are the next cycle won't look like the previous ones. The 2018 bottom already diverged significantly from the 2014-2015 bottoming cycle, reversing into a bull market much faster. This supports an alternate theory that the cycles might accelerate as investors try to front-run each other before the next bubble.

This might also be due to increased number of users and holders which is why these reversals now are taking much lesser time than what they took earlier.

[barota]

next halving bitcoin price can reach 135000 usd per btc ,  There is a dump now  in the market , but be confident that there is work in hiding like last year , as for low price can drop 25000 usd per btc in cases of crash like any past halving
Prices can stable above 35000 usd per btc easily

[dragonvslinux]

First block halving, the bottom is $2.00 and then it went $2.70 in 500 days approximately.

Second block halving, the bottom is $660 and we already know how high it gets in 2017 in around 1000 days.

And as the graph states, the bottom is $3100-$3200 in 2018, could it reach another all-time-high in 2000(?) days? What will be the price then? your guess is as good as mine    

Cool theory but with only 2 data points, it's just as likely there is no sustainable pattern at all, or that the cycle would take between 500 and 1,000 days.

True story, this is also why I'm not interested in comparing the block halvings because there are only 2 sets of data. By definition, this can't be used in statistical analysis, but can only be used to compare to each other. To put it simply; 1 occurrence is an isolated event, 2 occurrences is considered coincidence, 3 occurrences is considered a pattern.
The time to be theorizing about the relevance of the block halving will be in 2024, not 2020 in my opinion.

[1Referee]

The 2018 bottom already diverged significantly from the 2014-2015 bottoming cycle, reversing into a bull market much faster.

We'll have to see if this is an actual bull market because the lower the price sinks, the more likely it becomes that it has been a bull run within an overall bear market.

If we look back at historical price action, we don't generally break above the most important moving averages to dive under them some months later. In a bull market we stay well above them for quite a long time, which is something we haven't seen happen this year. Another thing is how little support there was around the 200DMA, while sellers right now are lined up to sell any attempt to break higher.

[teosanru]

The 2018 bottom already diverged significantly from the 2014-2015 bottoming cycle, reversing into a bull market much faster.

We'll have to see if this is an actual bull market because the lower the price sinks, the more likely it becomes that it has been a bull run within an overall bear market.

If we look back at historical price action, we don't generally break above the most important moving averages to dive under them some months later. In a bull market we stay well above them for quite a long time, which is something we haven't seen happen this year. Another thing is how little support there was around the 200DMA, while sellers right now are lined up to sell any attempt to break higher.

Yes not to forget that I just saw the BTC chart yesterday and it clearly displays some sort of death crossover coming up in a matter of few days with today's fall this looks even more practical. The bullish momentum is starting to get over and I think we might just once again move into sub 6-7k range. You can see the 50MA is coming downwards towards the 200MA to intersect it also not to forget as you mentioned we are still floating below the 200MA.

[sunsilk]

Which price tag did you refer to? Better to see the ATH or the lowest as it's clear as the standard measurement for new adopters to assess bitcoins growth over time. If it's not the ATH nor the ATL then it's the "mean number" of bitcoin price every year? But it won't be accurate, even in the market charts only show ATH and All-time lows

He mentioned that both, the lows and highs were not good as it indicates fake prices. But we've hit those prices and now everyone starts to have an idea that those were the prices that bitcoin has reached before.

For the lowest, which seems still to be a high price considering that this asset/currency has been operating for just a decade. And for the highest, I always see every investor that's aiming for that price now and even higher because there's a possibility that it can happen because we've seen it happened before.

[Republikcoin.com]

It is really happening the halving and the effect it can have with the price of bitcoin, we are  now in the third time halving is occurring and so far it is all positive but what if the halving now will be crucial for Bitcoin and end up negatively well we will never know, and I guess that is why we have an indicator for all-time low as well to simply see the support levels for bitcoin and that is good that we all care not only for all-time highs but all-time low as well,

This is a good analysis and an indicator that all criteria have met for us to proceed to another all-time high if the halving will be successful.

yes, that is indeed a very good analysis. If this halving goes well like before, there is a possibility that the price of bitcoin can exceed the price in 2017. Many people think that halving this time will make the price of bitcoin exceed its ATH, but so far there has not been such a sign.

based on the analysis, there is a high possibility that halving will indeed influence the price. so, I think that the price of bitcoin will most likely be above $ 12k by 2020, or even this year.

[exstasie]

The 2018 bottom already diverged significantly from the 2014-2015 bottoming cycle, reversing into a bull market much faster.

We'll have to see if this is an actual bull market because the lower the price sinks, the more likely it becomes that it has been a bull run within an overall bear market.

Sure that's possible. Unfortunately, Wave 2s tend to go quite deep so we have to wait and see. The 0.618 (in the $7,200s) is typical, but anything down to the low $5,000s would be pretty normal too for a bull market correction.

If we look back at historical price action, we don't generally break above the most important moving averages to dive under them some months later.

We did exactly that from June to August 2015 (broke above and back below the 200-day MA) as the market was transitioning from bear to bull. One might argue that's where we are in the market cycle right now too. Time will tell.

[Slow death]

In the past the price was very low and the market was smaller, when some people bought a lot of coins the price went up a lot, and people believed they would make 2X or 10X profits... today things are different, the price is very high compared to the past and people are not very confident that they will make 10X profits as in the past, in my opinion we will see moderate increases in the next halving, I am talking about increases of up to $25000

[Baofeng]

First block halving, the bottom is $2.00 and then it went $2.70 in 500 days approximately.

Second block halving, the bottom is $660 and we already know how high it gets in 2017 in around 1000 days.

And as the graph states, the bottom is $3100-$3200 in 2018, could it reach another all-time-high in 2000(?) days? What will be the price then? your guess is as good as mine    

Cool theory but with only 2 data points, it's just as likely there is no sustainable pattern at all, or that the cycle would take between 500 and 1,000 days.

Extrapolation is fun but chances are the next cycle won't look like the previous ones. The 2018 bottom already diverged significantly from the 2014-2015 bottoming cycle, reversing into a bull market much faster. This supports an alternate theory that the cycles might accelerate as investors try to front-run each other before the next bubble.

Right, we also have 2 data points because obviously bitcoin is a fairly young market and we can only extrapolate based on that data. And that what makes crypto prediction very fun in the sideline.  . But let's see how it goes after the block halving, the pattern could continue or not or the cycles will simply repeats itself, who knows.

[el kaka22]

The logic still stands even compared to back in the day, sure it will take a lot more money to increase the bitcoin price but at the same time as long as miners leave and they stop selling there wouldn't be too much need for money like it is now, it is still more money required than previous halving but it is less required compared to now. So, in the end the price goes up because miners stop selling which is a logic that worked all those times bitcoin had a halving and it will most likely happen in the near future when this halving happens as well.

All we need to make sure is to contact miners or at least get a word out of them on what they are planning to do before, during and after the halving, if we knew what they were planning then we can know for sure what will happen too.

[Google+]

from the information you have provided it seems that every time there is a halving bitcoin, the price can be very expensive and many people should know because it will be increasingly difficult to get bitcoin and increasing demand will make the price of bitcoin very expensive.

[BitHodler]

All we need to make sure is to contact miners or at least get a word out of them on what they are planning to do before, during and after the halving, if we knew what they were planning then we can know for sure what will happen too.

Do you seriously believe that large miners will reply to any of people's questions? It's in their best interest to not disclose their plans because there are a lot of competing miners that could take advantage of that information.

All you have to do is look at the chart and see for yourself what the market did during the previous block halvings---chances are that the conditions will rhyme because of how repetitive the nature of this market has been throughout the years.

[Jating]

All we need to make sure is to contact miners or at least get a word out of them on what they are planning to do before, during and after the halving, if we knew what they were planning then we can know for sure what will happen too.

Do you seriously believe that large miners will reply to any of people's questions? It's in their best interest to not disclose their plans because there are a lot of competing miners that could take advantage of that information.

All you have to do is look at the chart and see for yourself what the market did during the previous block halvings---chances are that the conditions will rhyme because of how repetitive the nature of this market has been throughout the years.

Miners are integral part of the ecosystem, but I would agree that they won't disclosed any of their future plans are it is also a competition out there, more so of big mining companies as compare to mid level or hobbyist miners around the world.

Well it could rhyme again because the market works in cycle and really could be repetitive but their might be new conditions, like new players and entities and institutions coming in and join the picture after the block halving.

[Febo]

next halving bitcoin price can reach 135000 usd per btc ,  There is a dump now  in the market , but be confident that there is work in hiding like last year , as for low price can drop 25000 usd per btc in cases of crash like any past halving
Prices can stable above 35000 usd per btc easily

Everything can happen But I wonder where you got this price from. As OP showed us in previous two halving price was 1/3 and 1/2 of previous ATH. So that would mean now at halving price could be $7000 or $10000.  I would really love to see where you got $135k.

[senne]

Bitcoin halving usually create the hype which is enough to create the fomo. Plus, it will cut the block reward by half which will cut the supply. On the other hand, demand is expected to go up in coming years because of the increased awareness. These all factors combined gonna take the price up. One should look for the speculated price before the halving. Usually price goes up before the event happens which could be a good point to close your longs.