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Author Topic: Unlocked Gold thread.  (Read 3658 times)
MatthewLM
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November 15, 2011, 08:23:28 PM
 #1

Since it appears cypherdoc will lock the other thread and I don't know when, I thought I'd create a new one.

First question for discussion. Many say gold miner stocks are very undervalued considering the bull market in gold with the miner stocks lagging behind. But with the costs of production increasing and (depending on your opinion this is) the negative outlook for the stock markets in general, is this a reasonable assessment? Should we be buying gold mining stocks instead of physical gold or should we limit our exposure to them?

Another question: Certain investors will recommend looking around for explorer stocks for the potential of massive rises over time. This comes with the risk that these explorers will not be able to start profitable mining operations. Is it a good idea to gamble with some of these more risky stocks?

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November 15, 2011, 10:04:30 PM
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I disagree on nearly all points.  Gold is not rallying, stocks are not floundering.  I am long a small position in a miner, as well as physical gold, but I consider both to be a hold at best.

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November 15, 2011, 11:46:10 PM
 #3

I disagree on nearly all points.  Gold is not rallying, stocks are not floundering.  I am long a small position in a miner, as well as physical gold, but I consider both to be a hold at best.

i totally agree.  i put up some very illuminating charts illustrating this on my website.
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November 16, 2011, 01:18:31 AM
 #4

Bitcoins and physical gold are both screaming long-term buys even at current price levels. I have acknowledged elsewhere that I'm usually early on my calls; it looks like I might have been a week or two early again with gold - pay attention to open interest in precious metals in relation to volume as the banks & gov't are now running the clock out to the very last second before pulling back from the brink.

Numerous mining stocks are undervalued in relation to their product, but as many dangers as opportunities exist with them. Beyond the risks among explorers and juniors, poor management might issue excessive shares, diluting ownership in the same way that base monetary inflation erodes wealth. Pay attention to share issuance over the past few years before initiating any position. The Got Gold Report has an excellent list of junior mining companies. Still, perform your due diligence before jumping in.

Alf Field's major speech, which he came out of retirement to give, has been posted at Jim Sinclair's site. There is plenty for everyone, from Elliott wave analysis to monetary theory.

A warning: the potential of a Dubai default caused panic during a major US holiday. The banks' backs are against the wall, so expect the unexpected in dirty tricks (e.g. MF Global client assets 'disappearing').

Traveling at the moment so reply time will be slow. Best to cypherdoc on the new venture.
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November 16, 2011, 03:44:32 AM
 #5

I disagree on nearly all points.  Gold is not rallying, stocks are not floundering.  I am long a small position in a miner, as well as physical gold, but I consider both to be a hold at best.

i totally agree.  i put up some very illuminating charts illustrating this on my website.

shouldn't an ad like that be done like this:

"i totally agree.  i put up some very illuminating charts illustrating this on my website."

(I hope the url is correct, also note, cypherdoc: the link(s) in the other thread seems to lead to a 404)

EDIT: put quotation marks on quote

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Coinabul
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November 16, 2011, 03:55:52 AM
 #6

Stocks involving gold mining require more research since you have to look at each individual company and their management.
But either gold or gold mining stock is a good buy right now. Smiley

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November 16, 2011, 04:29:42 AM
 #7

Tomorrow at 9AM EST we find out if Great Basin Gold (GBG) is vastly oversold, or if it is indeed priced correctly.  Could be interesting.

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molecular
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November 16, 2011, 08:43:23 AM
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Stocks involving gold mining require more research since you have to look at each individual company and their management.
But either gold or gold mining stock is a good buy right now. Smiley

in this very interesting interview http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSyJjC_jBWQ Doug Casey talks about "junior" miners. I think he says 80% of them will never mine a gram of metal. However, he also says junior miners are a good investment.

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November 16, 2011, 03:21:19 PM
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Nice rally :-P

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November 16, 2011, 04:31:45 PM
 #10

I have never personally invested in precious metal futures, but my understanding is that it is considered high risk. A lot of stuff can happen between you writing a check and gold coming out of the ground. I am also skeptical of the wisdom of buying at historically high prices. It may be hard to follow through with the most important rule; Buy low, sell high.

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November 16, 2011, 05:27:57 PM
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i've written a piece on the juniors in my forum. (shameless ad, don't bother going there if you don't want to subscribe)  Grin
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November 16, 2011, 10:15:41 PM
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I have never personally invested in precious metal futures, but my understanding is that it is considered high risk. A lot of stuff can happen between you writing a check and gold coming out of the ground. I am also skeptical of the wisdom of buying at historically high prices. It may be hard to follow through with the most important rule; Buy low, sell high.

If you adjust the price for the 95% value loss the dollar has incurred since the creation of the Fed in 1913, the prices look pretty good.

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November 17, 2011, 01:16:59 AM
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Hey you gold bugs.  I just received a few gram bars in the mail.  They are from ebay, and the auction claimed they were from Istanbul Gold Refinery.  However, the seal on these is a simple oval with IGR in it instead of the complex design with IAR I see elsewhere.  Are these legit, or did I get scammed?  If I did, what's my best course of action?  Contact the seller and give him the chance to pack up and take the money or chargeback through paypal?


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molecular
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November 17, 2011, 01:04:57 PM
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Hey you gold bugs.  I just received a few gram bars in the mail.  They are from ebay, and the auction claimed they were from Istanbul Gold Refinery.  However, the seal on these is a simple oval with IGR in it instead of the complex design with IAR I see elsewhere.  Are these legit, or did I get scammed?  If I did, what's my best course of action?  Contact the seller and give him the chance to pack up and take the money or chargeback through paypal?



why not check if it's gold. if it is, it's only a "slight" scam, right?

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November 17, 2011, 03:25:49 PM
 #15

I think a jewelry store could do a gold test for free.  If it's real gold, who cares where it's from.

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November 17, 2011, 09:49:23 PM
 #16

I think a jewelry store could do a gold test for free.  If it's real gold, who cares where it's from.

That would require sacrificing one of the bars, would it not?  Or is there some way to ensure they aren't just gold plated?  I guess you could measure volume with water and make sure it's the right density, but that wouldn't identify a clever forgery.  Maybe I'm just being paranoid.  I'll see if a local Jeweler can help me out.  Thanks for the suggestion.

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November 17, 2011, 11:16:51 PM
 #17

I wouldn't trust any gold bullion. Metallurgists can create very sophisticated alloys designed to fool common tests.

http://lunaticg.blogspot.com/2010/12/alert-hong-kong-bullion-scam.html

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November 17, 2011, 11:48:09 PM
 #18

Acid tests seem to be commonly used.

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November 21, 2011, 10:42:27 PM
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So, miscreanity, next month should show a sudden sharp rally for gold before the year's end, according to your thinking?

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November 28, 2011, 02:39:55 AM
 #20

I looked into this. Very illuminating, all these people buying gold but no testing.

Conductivity only tests surface, acid only tests surface, specifc gravity can work but hard to be that accurate in small amounts.

XRay is better. Im thinking of buying one to help people test.

Hope this helps

 -j
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