Fears/Backlash on ASIC mining and miner capitulazation with BTC/Crypto. POLL.

[Searing]

just annoying as hell...some of the fears/and a damn lot of moving parts that come to mind below on ASIC mining today. Be you a small miner (< 10 ASIC's) or bigger than that.

Below are some off the cuff fears and IMHO how much more complicated ASIC mining is today vs 1 year ago.

(1) the frigging Tariff at 25%. That is like you are already dead and they put a stake through your heart just to make double sure. ie...deader than dead for ASIC miners in the USA.

(2) the increase in ALL from what I can tell ASIC makers prices by probably (IMHO) 25% plus versus a compatible ASIC's made 1/2 to 1 year ago. (Hell, it is the same frigging chips just more of them nm wise)

3) Electric has gone nuts.. add a BIG assumption I could even find 6c kWh electric in Canada. (People say if big enough you can find 4c kWh in the USA) I have a buddy grandfathered in a data hall in Colorado at 8c kWh, no hidden fees, no drama. (I'm at 10c kWh no hidden fees, no drama) Anyway, his was just raised to 9.5c kWh. My House electric bill was 17.29c kWh this last month. (No mining at home obviously) with 1/2 winter rates included in this months bill, it is now 16.01c kWh...so what .maybe I'll get 3c kWh to cut my electric bill down on the next bill with FULL winter rates to 14c kWh at the max? Also, remember I'm getting off 1-2c kWh because of Xcel Utilities still think I get that off as electric heat from last year, thus a 1-2c kWh break. It's a deal if your house is heated by electric. It is, I told them back in the day 'server equipment' and they said sure. Then again if they compare with the gas company, pretty obvious where my heat was coming from ASIC mining at home. But this year may be a lot different still. Sh*t.

The problem is Xcel is heavy into community Solar and such, as a lock-in plan. They 'tried' to lock me in 1/2 a year ago at renewable/Solar rate for 10 years or some such silliness at 20c plus kWh etc. I think that supposedly could go down...but also could go up...seemed fishy as hell. I figure in a few years if it gets that bad, I'll simply get solar myself and/or deep in the Trump fueled 'deep depression' I'll be using LED's and a car battery and it won't matter.

4) The difficulty is going to the moon...hell, even LTC is only down 10%..eventually, complete miner capitulation will happen, with 65% or more of BTC and LTC pow mining being Bitmain units, hell they all go off together..no more mining, no more miners hodl'ing btc/ltc/crypto..price dumps too boot...will drive confidence in BTC/Alts to the floor.

5) If the stock market goes poof 20% to 40% recession...will whales who had their own data hall businesses or were living off crypto then, sell a mess of BTC/Crypto in a depressed market to keep their trophy wife and Puerto Rico Lifestyle? Even if every whale only dumped say 5% or 10% in a recession, I'd bet the price would dump,  40% on such a contingency (IMHO) in other words, was BTC/Crypto purchasing and HODL'ling just something for good times? When the economy was good? Thus discretionary income and then that goes away with a recession so does BTC/Crypto Hodl'ing? Sure people buy GOLD ahead of a downturn...but I'm pretty sure they don't buy gold during the downturn..that is when they liquidate...if same goes for BTC/Crypto in for a long, again they say 7-12 years now, tough bit of recovery, if true. Again, double death for any ASIC miners to get for years. Be them Big/Medium/Hobby ASIC miners.

Also, If we have a recession they say it is 7-12 years to recover. Confusion if that would be a good thing or bad thing for BTC/crypto? No clue. But I'm working on the assumption we do for a recession, thus the above effect on BTC/Crypto. Again, so many moving parts it makes my head hurt. Looks unlikely as hell IMHO I/we(?) will be able to get an ASIC miner in the next 2 years with all the above drama.

So 2017 the price of BTC went up at the end of the year? In 2018 the price of BTC went down? So flip a frigging coin on mining/no mining or hodl'ing/no hodling or sell/buy more...you get the drift. Take the poll, beat me up, tell me I'm full of sh*t, I miss ASIC mining and am more than a bit whiplashed on what is going on with BTC/Cypto..prove me dead wrong...I'll thank you!

(end of rant)

later

Brad

[Searing]

Reserved

[PassThePopcorn]

Just to put this out there because I was the one who said you could get 4c power. That would be at about 1MW to get  those prices if you run the center yourself you then need to add on staffing, leases etc. which in turn puts a hosting price of 6-10c more reasonable. Everyone working needs to be paid.

A datacenter can give better pricing with the more machines  you bring to them due to less customers = less work, it's a large commitment of work for setup and tear down but daily maintenance and admin costs for one customer is a lot less than for 100.

Tariffs you need to complain to your local government officials, provide facts and evidence as to why the tariff should be removed (there's plenty bfl, hashfast etc.). Tariffs really only hurt the little guys, big guys can move a few truckloads of miners around and wait a while and get the tax lowered by almost half if you do it right.

I've been here through all the dips and rises, in the end shit happens gotta keep believing.

[Searing]

I've been in HODL mode with most of my BTC/Crypto since 2013. From the high of, what was it, $18k to the low of $3.2k BTC. But likely, we are 'sowing' the results of too many miners vs adoption. What is it, out of 21 million BTC only 3 million BTC can be mined yet? If I remember right?

https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-18-millionth-bitcoin-to-be-mined-this-friday-only-3-million-left

So, maybe, we are in for a downturn in price and the "miner capitulation" we are witnessing on a massive scale, leading to slow (hopeful) adoption of BTC/Crypto as a mechanism to get the price of BTC above at least $10k again in value. I'm not holding my breath.

As we speak, Facebook and Zuckerberg are getting their heads handed to them at the hearing. Current grilling is Bitcoin and Crypto are responsible for all crime and previous to that the representative wanted Zuckerberg and Facebook to remove all anti-vaccine posts. Zuckerberg tried to point out he could not stop individuals from the posting of false facts, he could simply make such groups or individuals not recommended on a search by  Facebook. That died with a Thud. So on the one hand they say Facebook has too much power and on the other hand they want Facebook to censor everything. What a cluster. Below is the hearing link..it is quite the clusterf*ck.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isTB1Bpl9SA

I can watch this stuff for like 5 minutes then toss my hands up.

later

Brad

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Current grilling is Bitcoin and Crypto are responsible for all crime

ya gotta just shake yer head at such stupidity. Bottom line is that it is hard-currency aka Fiat that is the 'root of all Evil' as that is what any crypto coin gets exchanged into sooner or later. So following their 'reasoning' the production of all hard currency should be banned and everyone should move to a cashless system...

[Searing]

Facebook and Zuckerberg just can't win. They are saying both it is the responsibility of Facebook to stop all sex trafficking and anti-vaccine false posts, etc, and then turn around and say Facebook has too much power and is into censorship and is going to far to stifle free speech and is a Monopoly! Sh*t on a stick, I bet after this hearing  Facebook pulls out of Libra completely, but the damage is done indeed. Now the gloves are off on the other non-crypto aspects of Facebook and how the government wants them to both be all and hands-off all at the same time. Facebook has really stepped into the sh*t with these hearings, they are gonna haunt them big time!

Brad

[philipma1957]

ya gotta just shake yer head at such stupidity. Bottom line is that it is hard-currency aka Fiat that is the 'root of all Evil' as that is what any crypto coin gets exchanged into sooner or later. So following their 'reasoning' the production of all hard currency should be banned and everyone should move to a cashless system...

Yeah lets do everything based on smiles.

[Searing]

This link below I found was really good at 'calming' me in a positive way. At least some light in the wilderness of this short term price drop in BTC.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4298780-bitcoin-moment-truth

After reading the above, I got motivated and started my off/on Attic Mining Gig. i..e. I am trying (not motivated) to sell about $5k of crap in my attic I will otherwise, die with on eBay and buying BTC. So I have started the pump with my $159.08 BTC buy at $7,504 USD. Let the PUMP begin, I have spoken!

(Disclaimer: The above is made in 'jest' I will have no responsibility on likely (due to past experiences and skills at buying BTC at the high) if the price of BTC dumps due to my actions. It surely will be a coincidence right?)

What the hell, at least I got off my ass and did this much today. Attic Mining is the Future. I have so much 'crap' this type of 'mining' can never die! Packrats of the world unite!

later

Brad

Well, looking at the whole Mining thing again, could be a mad rush just to get the 16nm all out the door and into data halls before in about 1/2 year, the BTC halving happens. I suppose whales can be just as suckered into BTC/Crypto Mining hype as well as any of us home miners are/were...etc. Bigger wallets to fleece by the ASIC Manufacturer's, as they play the game of mine if first, before release of any new equipment. So rinse/wash/repeat.

Well, from the sidelines on ASIC mining now, but we shall see I guess. In fact, China may be doing a re-think on everything BTC/Crypto....not sure about this but look at this link:

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/china-is-banning-any-criticism-of-bitcoin-and-blockchain-technology-201910311837

Comments? Whatcha think?

Brad

[DaveF]

Same thing has happened before. New gen stuff is coming, old gen stuff gets blown out.
I can't really come up with a good term, but lets call it "form factor" changes it's the same story.

When I am saying form factor I am encompassing the change from video cards to FPGA to small desktop ASIC to all the odd stuff like bitburners and the like to the S1/S3.
Since the S5 and newer outside of the R4 everything has been too loud and power hungry to rally run in your basement / garage without making major changes to power & cooling.

Since the S5 it's just been drop the price on the older slower stuff and bring out the new.

For the future, same old thing. The S1x stuff that we are running now will be S2x in 18 to 24 months....

And we will be having this conversation again.

-Dave

[Biodom]

I consider the OP's post a cry for help..a miner wants to mine and can't because of prices, etc.

I thought about the same and decided to get some via the paypal route.
No corn was harmed in making this purchase, lol.
If it does not work out exactly, then this is a risk that I am willing to take (for now).

[Searing]

I resemble the above post.

But at 17.29c kWh electric at the house this Summer and 15c kWh winter rates my home mining days are gone. Best data hall rates I can find that take small fry without setup fees etc and hidden fees are 9.5c to 10c kWh. (and not moving the works to Canada).

so I attic mine...sell stuff out of the attic I'd otherwise die with ..if not for BTC....unlikely this will work...but maybe I can get around the sheer utter boredom of such by getting some BTC dust. All I got for now, at these prices and difficulty and madness of ASIC miner prices etc, the boat as they say don't float.

The needs must when the devil drives...

later

brad

[philipma1957]

For the future, same old thing. The S1x stuff that we are running now will be S2x in 18 to 24 months...

maybe more like 24 to 30 months. and it could be interesting to see non-silicon chips.

5nm in 2022
then 3nm in 2026
and then magic in 2030💰💰😀

[Searing]

Hoping, this too shall pass..but until then doing the below, drudgery and price not helping my enthusiasm much but trying to 'slog' along thru this whole BTC vs USD price slump.

Well, I'm 'attic mining' or selling stuff I'd otherwise die with..so hell get it out of my attic and sell on eBay and use to buy BTC. That is all I can do 'if' I believe in BTC/Crypto Universe. I'm in the 'rabbit hole' so deep I'm just looking at this as an opportunity to 1) clean out the attic of stuff I'd otherwise die with an make a rec room and 2) get as much BTC dust as I can from the process.

Treating BTC as virtual land that is 80% occupied/mined, for the whole USD value/rarity argument for prices. I can only hope that my view is correct and 1/2 the land being 'made' so to speak happens next year and the adoption/use/value of Bitcoin, as a result, reflects USD value at over at least frigging $12k say as a base in USD price for the future from that point. Whatever, drank the kool-aid on BTC/Crypto in 2013, its too far along for me to 'crack' on this yet. Whatever, how I am seeing this and what I'm doing to motivate myself for more BTC dust now that I'm out of ASIC mining.

(doubly screwed....25% tariff and with the equipment depreciation I have for the next couple years for mining previous to 2019 *unused* no real 'logic' on the equipment depreciation I'd at least justified ASIC miner purchases in the past. No way helps with 2020 purchases, even if legit equipment. That boat won't float. Would be 50% down at the start of any income mined, kinda sorta)

Anyway, I just have to assume this is a buying phase and that the BTC halving next year this will correct some of this price-wise per USD lameness on BTC and USD prices. (not that I sell any BTC from the hoard, but still as a spectator sport your BTC hoard vs USD worth it sucks)

anyway my 2 satoshis' view

(big whoop ...like I know zip stalling here from weekend chores on bitcointalk.org)

later

Brad

[philipma1957]

the s17 pro is coming from malaysia is 1599 and no trump tax.  just a small 30-40 dollar import fee shipping is 120.

nets about 1750 run on low it is not very loud. pulls 43 th an efficient about 37 watts a th.

reminds me of the godfather: “ just when you think 🤔 you can get out they pull you back in.”

[OgNasty]

Mining has always been a darkest before dawn industry.  You have to be willing to mine through a loss period if you want to make it out stronger on the other side.  That being said, I think for the home miner who is fighting profitability, GPU mining might be the most reasonable option due to a wide range of benefits.

[Searing]

Well, hopefully, we are on the last legs of miner capitulation now. I mean if I am correct and my estimate or Bitmain L3+'s having until recently 60% plus of scrypt-pow mining (most of which converts to BTC) or equiv equipment of a like type from Innsilocon etc also in the same boat. Also IMHO, my guess of Bitmain S9's of whatever the flavor and again equivalent equipment from other manufacturers being about to dump off as obsolete as well.

Well that is #1 in the 'we are screwed' parade (miners from say, 2017 till now with such equipment)

#2 in the 'we are screwed' category is, of course, BTC price (IMHO BTC/China FUD and more) of, as I type now, $7,350 USD even.

#3 in the 'we are screwed' category (yes there is more) is the fact that a recent miner as an example Bitmain S17 Pro 56 TH at the $1,566 USD price (no tariff/no shipping) and specs of 53TH at 10c kWh and the use of (at middle-range price) of about 2100 watts. According what is on the "What to Mine" site pays out after electric (at a 10c kWh that I can get in a data hall) approximately at $7,340  USD priced BTC as of now, exactly $3.08 /day. well, that ROI certainly sucks. A Bitmain S9i for example on the same site https://whattomine.com/asic shows (13TH underclocked 1,100 watts) a loss of 75c per day after electric!

Anyway, I bought 0.26679956 BTC total in the last two days for $2,003.66 USD. I figure that $10,000 BTC has to come back someday, especially with the halving in 2020. If not, this whole BTC/Crypto endeavor was a pipe dream and I should dump my 2013 till now hoard of BTC/Crypto today. (It is like you are on a cliff with 2 choices and have to jump. One choice has a lake, the other choice does not. Flip a coin on what to do HODL or BAIL?)

Anyway, I choose to HODL and me tossing BTC Dust towards the hoard, bit by bit as BTC is under $10k seems the thing to do. If I am correct and BTC comes back even if forever sideways at around $10k I will have made $751 USD on my above $2003.66 BTC buying spree of the last 2 days on this dump in price. Chump or Champ. Fool or Genius. Time will tell I guess. But here is where I draw the line. IF BTC and indeed all crypto is to survive this miner capitulation and next years halving of BTC difficulty, etc. Someday/Somehow BTC MUST get over $10,000 with adoption and mining and stuff will have corrected itself etc or we are all fricking doomed.

Thus my bet. That this is a Buy opportunity. To think otherwise would be to abandon all hope and sell my hoard and walk. (hey, its only money. sob!) The good news is that the band/music from the upper deck as the ship sinks is soothing...so I'll leave with that)

later

Brad

[mikeywith]

10c kWh

There is a lot to comment on your post, but this tiny part here is the most important, you should not be mining with such power rate, unless you get your hands on some miner made by aliens which beats all the odds that us as humans know.

You see, mining is like going to a war , while huge farms in china get 1-4 cents power and you pay 10 cents , it's like going to a war with a wooden stick and expect to win, also what makes that stick even less effective is the fact that you pay more tax / tariff and a lot on shipping , those guys can buy thousands of gears for much less than the price advertised, and they can move a dozen miner for less than 500$ , hire 100 Chinese workers to get that farm up and running ,pay them 10% the money you need to pay 10 of your people, and probably less than you pay your wife to reboot that laggy S17 when you are not around.  

Let's dig a little deeper and see how things work for me vs someone else who pay a lot for power.

I pay 0 cents per kwh ( yes no typos ) , thanks to Satoshi who invented the difficulty adjustment concept, all I have to compete against is the lifespan of my gears, as long as my gears are up and running, I make money ,BTC price goes up or goes down or even Bitmain produces a new gear that does 10w a th tomorrow, all that does not really matter much because in the grand scheme of things i will always profit.

Joe pay 10 cents per kw, he has to compete against , me , the guy who pays 1 cent , the guys who pay 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 cents , price , difficulty and his wife for emptying that bank account of theirs.

I along side with those who have pretty cheap power rate will always make Joe's life harder , because we have a lot of room and willing to squeeze that last penny out of mining, we make decent profit and can always add more gears, even if prices are collapsing, we know that Joe will be liquidated and we get to buy his gears for really cheap.

Mining is no longer a hobby, no longer a get-rich over a month thing, it's getting more and more difficult , and regardless of how promising it looks , it's nothing but dominoes falling, if you are standing somewhere in the front, you will fall first, very simple.

we know that a lot of Chinese miners can get as low as 1 cent per kwh in some areas Xinjiang during rainy seasons and enjoy that power rate for 6-7 months , we know that in other regions in china as well as a lot of other countries , miners can get 4 cents per kwh , let's ignore the first group , and focus only on the second one,if your power rate is not pretty close to those guys , your chances are slim and your only hope is a fast price increase that surpasses the speed of adding more gears into the network.

Having said all that, if your power rate is pretty close to average say 5 to 6 cents at most , and you know when to buy a gear and how like phill explained, with a bit of "luck" you will make some profit.

IF BTC and indeed all crypto is to survive this miner capitulation and next years halving of BTC difficulty, etc. Someday/Somehow BTC MUST get over $10,000 with adoption and mining and stuff will have corrected itself etc or we are all fricking doomed.

If by survive you mean just survive, then bitcoin does not have to be over 10k when the halving comes, it will survive even at 100$ , yes more miners than usual will have to leave the game, bitcoin will be more subject to 51% attacks, but there will always be someone who is able to keep the blockchain alive as long as bitcoin is anything above flat 0.

[Searing]

Surviving in the 100's for Bitcoin does nothing for me, in that I expect a good-sized recession in the USA when 'adults' 'hopefully' take control of government again. Thus BTC better act as a 'store of value' like Gold and drift back above $10k and beyond, because 20-40% correction (20% is a recession) reflected in my traditional stocks and retirement investments would be quite the problem on top of BTC/Crypto blowing up to 'hobby' status at that point in time. I really do need Bitcoin to be 'Plan B' as folks say. Just the way it has to go, or I'll be screwed by both the 'decentralized' economy (BTC) and the 'centralized' economy (stocks and such)...

Anyway, why I'm in HODL mode and still selling the crap out of the attic to eBay for cash to buy some more BTC dust...

later

brad

[taserz]

Mining has always been a darkest before dawn industry.  You have to be willing to mine through a loss period if you want to make it out stronger on the other side. 

Wiser words are rarely said on this forum.

If by survive you mean just survive, then bitcoin does not have to be over 10k when the halving comes, it will survive even at 100$ , yes more miners than usual will have to leave the game, bitcoin will be more subject to 51% attacks, but there will always be someone who is able to keep the blockchain alive as long as bitcoin is anything above flat 0.

I mean if you play your cards right you can do pretty well. I have been living off just mining profits for the past 2 years. Granted I dropped $75k in hardware just before the runup and sold a bit during it. But I never sold coin for a loss only when I was in the green. Now I am going through and upgrading everything and am curious if I can repeat it all again. Except for this time I am not going to use my btc profit as yolo money.