[CHALLENGE] Who wants to be a millionaire ?

[tyKiwanuka]

I guess a lot of you guys have heard about how easy it is to become a millionaire with betting. Just place one bet each day with odds of 1,02 starting with 100,- Euro (or whatever your currency might be), go all-in every time and you’ll be a millionaire around 15 months later, sounds easy huh ? It’s not. I have yet to see anybody, who publicly provided his bets, to achieve that. There is many reasons for failing to make it, but the most common is probably impatience.

I doubt I will be the first to achieve it, but will give it a try nonetheless. It goes like this:



I won’t play exactly a 1,02 every day, there might be days with 1,01 and days with 1,05, but I will try to have a 1,02 on average. If there is nothing appealing on a given day, I won’t rush with a bet. Same goes if there is two or more good bets on the same day, I might play multiple.

I will not play these bets for real – they are just on paper - because while it’s technically doable, I don’t think anybody is able to mentally go through with it till the end. You will only lose 100,- Euro whatever happens, but in your mind, you will lose more. Already in the 5-figure range, most people will fold mentally, let alone at later stages, where you would have to put 900k+ on some scrubs doing sports.

The logistics might be a problem later on as well. Bookmaker limits might be too low, not enough volume on Betfair too and with shopping for the best odds, you would often have to withdraw and deposit huge amounts with bookmakers. Most people don’t have 900k lying around.

So this is more a fun challenge, everyone can feel free to follow the bets though.

For bets with Betfair, I will calculate with a flat commission of 5%. Only pre-match bets for easy tracking for those interested.

Bank: 100,- Euro
W-L: 0-0
Average odds: N.A.

Bets played:
#1 l Volleyball l WGER1 l Schwerin vs Erfurt l Home Win l 1,02 l 100,00 l Leonbets 3-1 WON
#2 l Football l UEL l Sevilla vs Dudelange l Sevilla 1X (lay Dudelange @50) l 1,02 l 102,00 l Betfair 3-0 WON
#3 l Handball l WHUN1 l Ferencvaros vs Mosonmagyarovar l Ferencvaros ML l 1,03 l 103,98 l Expekt 30-20 WON
#4 l Football l NED2 l Grafschaap vs Dordrecht l lay 0-0 l 1,02 (lay @42) l 107,10 l Betfair 5-0 WON
#5 l Am. Football l NCAAF l Alabama+Clemson l Home win parlay l 1,04 l 109,57 l Leonbets 48-7 & 59-7 WON
#6 l Handball l SWE1 l Skanela vs Bodens l Skanela win l 1,02 l 114,00 l  Expekt 34-17 WON
#7 l Football l ENG1 l Liverpool vs Tottenham l lay 0-1 (@34) l 1,03 l 116,28 l Betfair 2-1 WON
#8 l Football l CUPGER l Bochum vs Bayern l Bayern X2 l 1,03 l 119,56 l Betago 1-2 WON
#9 l Volleyball l GER1 l BR Volleys - Eltmann l BR Volleys ML l 1,03 l 123,15 l Bet365 3-0 WON
#10 l Football l MLS l Atlanta vs Toronto l lay 0-2 (@40) l 1,02 l 126,84 l Betfair 1-2 WON
#11 l Basketball l GER1 l Ludwigsburg vs Hamburg l Ludwigsburg ML l 1,11 l 129,93 l Betsson 94-83 WON
#12 l Football l NED2 l Cambuur vs Nijmegen l lay 0-0 (@26) l 1,04 l 144,22 l Betfair 0-0 LOST

[tyKiwanuka]

So lets start with the first bet. Format is like this: Bet# l Sport l League l Matchup l Pick l Odds l Stake l Bookmaker

#1 l Volleyball l WGER1 l Schwerin vs Erfurt l Home Win l 1,02 l 100,00 l Leonbets

Lots of books don't even offer odds for home win, so Leonbets is pretty generous with a 1,02. Handicap is -22,5, so this should be a no-sweat home win       

[ChrisPop]

First I thought you were referring to casino gambling. In sports betting you definitely make this work, but you gotta know your teams and have a skill for this. Why not try the challenge with 2.00 odd parlays? Why wait so long as I'm sure you can find enough acceptable matches is beyond my reach.

Over the time I found that low odds matches are more riskier as the risk/reward ratio is much lower than with playing higher odds. However I wish you luck in your challenge and I will be watching this thread.

[Mahanton]

First I thought you were referring to casino gambling. In sports betting you definitely make this work, but you gotta know your teams and have a skill for this. Why not try the challenge with 2.00 odd parlays? Why wait so long as I'm sure you can find enough acceptable matches is beyond my reach.

Over the time I found that low odds matches are more riskier as the risk/reward ratio is much lower than with playing higher odds. However I wish you luck in your challenge and I will be watching this thread.

If you do try to look up his above statements he do mention out that he wont rush on making up bets and its clear that he wont easily pick up 1.02 or low ones without having that analysis for sure.This is really plausible method though but as we know that sports betting can still f*cked s up anytime.Upsets do happen so even a single loss will really need some numbers of winning bets for you to catch up so this will surely takes time.

[ragavancoin]

So lets start with the first bet. Format is like this: Bet# l Sport l League l Matchup l Pick l Odds l Stake l Bookmaker

#1 l Volleyball l WGER1 l Schwerin vs Erfurt l Home Win l 1,02 l 100,00 l Leonbets

Lots of books don't even offer odds for home win, so Leonbets is pretty generous with a 1,02. Handicap is -22,5, so this should be a no-sweat home win       

Really it is interesting to see how you will be going to select betting options each day. and what will happen at end, I wish to you reach your goals safely because I seen so many bet has gone loss if we select 1.01 odd also. So play safe I will follow up with you on daily base to check the status of your bettings.

[ralle14]

Why not try the challenge with 2.00 odd parlays? Why wait so long as I'm sure you can find enough acceptable matches is beyond my reach.

I'm not OP but i've seen people do well with low odds bet specifically odds below 1.10 and going all in every single time. Parlays imo are much harder than this because actual odds fall off quick since the outcomes increase when you put more matches. OP might focus on a few sports that's why he's giong to be very careful with his predictions and try not to force things out even if there's odds between 1.02~.

[tyKiwanuka]

#1 l Volleyball l WGER1 l Schwerin vs Erfurt l Home Win l 1,02 l 100,00 l Leonbets

WON

Bank: 102,00 Euro
W-L: 1-0
Average odds: 1,02

#2 l Football l UEL l Sevilla vs Dudelange l Sevilla 1X (lay Dudelange @50) l 1,02 l 102,00 l Betfair

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I'm not OP but i've seen people do well with low odds bet specifically odds below 1.10 and going all in every single time. Parlays imo are much harder than this because actual odds fall off quick since the outcomes increase when you put more matches. OP might focus on a few sports that's why he's giong to be very careful with his predictions and try not to force things out even if there's odds between 1.02~.

To have longterm success with low odds, you have to be very experienced. Most very low odds don’t carry any value, but there is low odds that have very much value, but those are mostly found in non-mainstream sports and leagues.

This challenge is not about value betting though, it’s about picking 466 winners in a row. Thus value doesn’t matter that much with this challenge; I will still try to pick bets that are “safe” winners and have some value as well nevertheless. Lets see how far I can get

[DarkDays]

You will quickly run into problems once you get over $10,000 or so, since most gambling platforms have a maximum bet size around there.

There is also an almost 100% chance that you will fail before you get anywhere close to $1 million using this strategy. Not only because the odds are against you, but because I'm sure you'll give up should you get lucky enough to somehow make it over $1,000 or so.

Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how it turns out, I hope you do update your thread every day.

At a 98% win rate, you should win around 25 times in a row before you eventually lose (on average).

[chaser15]

That will work but it's too risky for me to bet for a sure odds since, in the event of losses, it will be more painful compare betting to an underdog or around fair odds. I like OP's guts here so good luck to you and your winning stats might attract gamblers to take the risks and willing to fall on a trap.

OP might focus on a few sports that's why he's giong to be very careful with his predictions and try not to force things out even if there's odds between 1.02~.

He needs too. Even for around 1.02 odds, there's a thing called upset and OP needs to study it carefully.

[hahay]

Such a strategy is only good for those who have high patience, I have talked about strategies like this before and when you only look for odds of 1.02 then any type of bet you can do such as dice, sports or whatever gambling that at least has low odds like that. But in reality most gamblers play gambling because they have their own reasons like getting a quick profit, therefore as you have said also this is about patience and not about skills and experience as the most important. One other thing that must be considered is about luck, I have experienced bad luck repeatedly implementing strategies like this in parlay, because not always low odds will guarantee winning and profit in betting.

[LogitechMouse]

To have longterm success with low odds, you have to be very experienced. Most very low odds don’t carry any value, but there is low odds that have very much value, but those are mostly found in non-mainstream sports and leagues.

This challenge is not about value betting though, it’s about picking 466 winners in a row. Thus value doesn’t matter that much with this challenge; I will still try to pick bets that are “safe” winners and have some value as well nevertheless. Lets see how far I can get

Even  you will bet on the team with lower odds, there still be a chance that the team you bet will lose but your experienced I think so this strategy will work for you.

Patience is your main enemy here but anyway, lets see how far can you go with your challenge. It will take a long time but worth it if you will win consecutive times . Good Luck!!!!

[notblox1]

I think you are wasting your time with this kind of bets,  and you cant bet with this high amount online.
Also odds are very low, and they can be lost also

[Battareus]

I think you are wasting your time with this kind of bets,  and you cant bet with this high amount online.
Also odds are very low, and they can be lost also

He started this to test the strategy exactly as he wants to bring it to life and now just tests his luck. Apparently you did not understand the point, it is to risk a small amount of money and get a good win after a lot of rounds.

[shoreno]

I think you are wasting your time with this kind of bets,  and you cant bet with this high amount online.
Also odds are very low, and they can be lost also

its not a time waster because you only need to place a bet and then leave it for some time , you can only comeback to check if you win or loose  .  its also possible to bet higher amounts on some online betting sites   .

 you can get loose on low odds but what about on higher odds ? no difference for me at all  . you can loose or win no matter what bets/odds your using  but who wouldnt want to become a millionaire ?  maybe this strat of the op is the key to achieve that

[maydna]

Placing 100 euro every day is too risky, especially for me. It's not about the odds or anything, but it's about the money you have to place the bets. If you have a lot of money, then 100 euro will not be a problem. But I believe 100 euro will be worth for other people and I don't think that they will risk 100 euro every day to gamble. Perhaps, if the money is not too big as the OP says, I think people will place the bet, but they will not do that every day. I could only say good luck to you OP, hope you can win every day.

[tyKiwanuka]

#2 l Football l UEL l Sevilla vs Dudelange l Sevilla 1X (lay Dudelange @50) l 1,02 l 102,00 l Betfair

WON

Bank: 103,98 Euro
W-L: 2-0
Average odds: 1,02

#3 l Handball l WHUN1 l Ferencvaros vs Mosonmagyarovar l 1,03 l 103,98 l Expekt

H2H from the last years 8-0, 250-147 goals, always won with at least 10+, handicap for tomorrow is around that mark too.

[dunfida]

Placing 100 euro every day is too risky, especially for me. It's not about the odds or anything, but it's about the money you have to place the bets. If you have a lot of money, then 100 euro will not be a problem. But I believe 100 euro will be worth for other people and I don't think that they will risk 100 euro every day to gamble. Perhaps, if the money is not too big as the OP says, I think people will place the bet, but they will not do that every day. I could only say good luck to you OP, hope you can win every day.

When you do able to read up the word "Challenge" then it simply tells that op is trying to reach up some goal.
Big amount or not for other people but he do like to bet on low odds or simply high chance of winning.
As i can see above he do bet up 100 euro each time he do see some line. 2 times in a row is normal and im wondering on how many
games he would able to bust up that 100 euro of his.

[kworrom]

This challenge is too hard and will only lead to frustration. The problem is with your staking strategy. Simply it is too greedy. If you go all in every time you will eventually lose. Why not instead try to risk 2% (or less) of your bank per bet? Give yourself a chance to be wrong and still work towards your million euro profit goal. It's cruel to expect yourself to be perfect even if you are not actually risking anything. I bet you will not get past 100 wagers made. Prove me wrong.

Just because the market price on a sporting event is 1.02 doesn't mean that it literally has a 98% chance of happening like in a dice game with no house edge. There are so many unknowns. The odds can be skewed due to heavy bets on only one side. A player can get injured or have a hidden injury going into the match that gets aggravated. A player's equipment can fail catastrophically. The weather can randomly affect the outcome. A referee can make a wrong call. A coach can decide to rest impact players before or during the match due to looking ahead in schedule. Players can under perform, over perform, and get straight up lucky. What this challenge will remind you is that historical results don't guarantee future results, and the market can post odds that are quite off (so don't trust what the market says automatically, come with your own odds and then compare to the market). Crazy stuff happens.

What I would like to see you do is come up with and share your own odds for these 1.01-1.05 bets. Share how much value is in these in your opinion. Should that 1.02 be 1.01? 1.005? 1.0001? What goes into your probability assessment? It would make it more interesting if you were actually placing these bets, risking real money or BTC, and how this would affect your decision making. It would also be more interesting if you instead started with 1 million euros and attempted to use this strategy to reach 2 million euros (with the sportsbook or exchange betting limits in place). Internally, somewhat, you might already sense that this strategy is a dead end since you aren't risking anything, and this is a smart choice. In any case, good luck!

[Ararbermas]

Honestly that amount is very high for every bet " 100 euro ". and its very risky mate in my own opinion because you know every results in gambling are very unpredictable . And it can cause regrets afterwards.  If i were you,  if you just want to try you luck.  Then go first with a small amount.   Because its very unacceptable especially you lost that kind of amount suddenly, wherein just like a blink of an eye.  Well unless if you want to try that amount  just for fun.  Lol

[tyKiwanuka]

Already looking forward to the shit-storm after losing the first bet

Most people didn't even bother to read the opening post and/or just unloaded their signature campaign garbage posts, so I won't bother engaging in a discussion with them.

This challenge is too hard and will only lead to frustration. The problem is with your staking strategy. Simply it is too greedy.

Of course it is, I am aware of that and thats why this is just for fun.

I bet you will not get past 100 wagers made. Prove me wrong.

I would be surprised, if I even get to 50

Just because the market price on a sporting event is 1.02 doesn't mean that it literally has a 98% chance of happening like in a dice game with no house edge. There are so many unknowns. The odds can be skewed due to heavy bets on only one side. A player can get injured or have a hidden injury going into the match that gets aggravated. A player's equipment can fail catastrophically. The weather can randomly affect the outcome. A referee can make a wrong call. A coach can decide to rest impact players before or during the match due to looking ahead in schedule. Players can under perform, over perform, and get straight up lucky. What this challenge will remind you is that historical results don't guarantee future results, and the market can post odds that are quite off (so don't trust what the market says automatically, come with your own odds and then compare to the market). Crazy stuff happens.

I know all this, I've seen it all. In my long betting career I have lost the most safe 1,01 bets and won insane gambles on 100+ odds. But till now I haven't had a losing year.

What I would like to see you do is come up with and share your own odds for these 1.01-1.05 bets. Share how much value is in these in your opinion. Should that 1.02 be 1.01? 1.005? 1.0001? What goes into your probability assessment? It would make it more interesting if you were actually placing these bets, risking real money or BTC, and how this would affect your decision making. It would also be more interesting if you instead started with 1 million euros and attempted to use this strategy to reach 2 million euros (with the sportsbook or exchange betting limits in place). Internally, somewhat, you might already sense that this strategy is a dead end since you aren't risking anything, and this is a smart choice. In any case, good luck!

Most likely there is not much value in the odds I am playing, but this is not what it is about in the end. It's about picking winners, so I am not looking for valuable odds in first place opposed to what I do with my "normal" betting, which is not public. Feel free to open any kind of your own challenge - 1 million to 2 million or whatever - and I will curiously follow.

So I wish everyone a happy following and hope you enjoy seeing me failing, which will happen 99,999999999999%