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Author Topic: [CHALLENGE] Who wants to be a millionaire ?  (Read 531 times)
notblox1
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October 25, 2019, 02:12:12 AM
 #21

He started this to test the strategy exactly as he wants to bring it to life and now just tests his luck. Apparently you did not understand the point, it is to risk a small amount of money and get a good win after a lot of rounds.

I did understand what he wants to do do, and I said I doubt that he can bet that high amount.

@tyKiwanuka
Good luck anyway.

Is there any specific bookie you are using?
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October 25, 2019, 02:42:05 AM
 #22

I think you are wasting your time with this kind of bets,  and you cant bet with this high amount online.
Also odds are very low, and they can be lost also
You have to respect other people's strategies, and it's about betting in gambling that depends on their strategy to get good luck.
those who bet on all types of online gambling are already based on prior knowledge to make strategies before betting and hope that the planned strategy will be profitable.

 
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October 25, 2019, 05:21:04 AM
 #23

This won't go even for the 50th bet. Better Op needs to check with a small amount to know the risk he has scheduled in front of him. Even when we go with the increased winning probability we aren't assured with the win. This way I find it really a hard thing to achieve. Playing on different gambling sites I find no gambling site gives way for such a win on consecutive bets. Even yesterday I lost all the campaign payments on Windice which is unexpected, and it happens which is why it is termed gambling is risky.

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October 25, 2019, 12:58:52 PM
Last edit: October 27, 2019, 09:32:21 PM by kworrom
Merited by tyKiwanuka (1)
 #24

In the spirit of your challenge--as an experiment I indiscriminately added ~75 matches that were around 1.05 odds or below that start within the next week. They should all win.  Let's see what happens! https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/lowexperiment/ Will update with the result here.

There seems to be a few common themes in these 1.01-1.05 favorites. Lots of women's sports. Lots of teams who have an economic advantage, a disproportionate amount of money to spend compared to others in their domestic league (for example Real Madrid and Barcelona playing in the Liga ACB). Lots of national competitions where I guess certain countries also have an economic advantage or cultural advantage in developing their program over others.

Also, it's interesting how odds for many of these events seem to be offered only by sportsbooks with seemingly bad reputations... it makes you wonder if they would even honor an underdog upset or call bad odds. If you believe in the favorite-longshot bias idea (https://www.sbo.net/horse-racing/favourite-longshot-bias/) then the odds on backing these underdogs should pay out much worse than the favorites in the long haul.


----update 10/27/19----

Across 100 random bets on favorites around 1.05 odds (https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/lowexperiment/) even though it's a tiny sample, there was a smaller loss betting on heavy favorites than heavy underdogs. The underdogs appear to pay less than they're worth. They have a lower chance to win than their odds imply. Blame the sportsbook... the dog's odds are a ripoff.

Also, there's more variance depending on staking strategy. It was more likely to lose your entire bank when using a continuation betting strategy compared to a fixed bet amount strategy. If someone is trying this for fun (with the intention of not losing), it's worth a reminder that it's probably a bad idea to go all in. There were 6 continuation bet sequences, the shortest bet continuation sequence was 0 (unlucky man), and the longest was 32 (+284% gain) before losing.

Based on this silliness, I'd ultimately call this challenge a success if you...
(1) eventually leave with any profit
(2) are able progress further than 32 consecutive bets

notblox1
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October 25, 2019, 01:29:16 PM
 #25

You have to respect other people's strategies, and it's about betting in gambling that depends on their strategy to get good luck.
those who bet on all types of online gambling are already based on prior knowledge to make strategies before betting and hope that the planned strategy will be profitable.

You also have to respect that I have my own opinion and I can say what I think about his strategy.
If you like it so much ...then you can join him please, I would like to see that...
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October 25, 2019, 01:36:20 PM
 #26

In the spirit of your challenge--as an experiment I indiscriminately added 75 matches that were around 1.05 odds or below that start within the next week. They should all win.  Let's see what happens! https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/lowexperiment/ Will update with the result here.

There seems to be a few common themes in these 1.01-1.05 favorites. Lots of women's sports. Lots of teams who have an economic advantage, a disproportionate amount of money to spend compared to others in their domestic league (for example Real Madrid and Barcelona playing in the Liga ACB). Lots of national competitions where I guess certain countries also have an economic advantage or cultural advantage in developing their program over others.

Also, it's interesting how odds for many of these events seem to be offered only by sportsbooks with seemingly bad reputations... it makes you wonder if they would even honor an underdog upset or call bad odds. If you believe in the favorite-longshot bias idea (https://www.sbo.net/horse-racing/favourite-longshot-bias/) then the odds on backing these underdogs should pay out much worse than the favorites in the long haul.
Seen up your profile which you do have currently 5 picks for today.I would suggest that you should better make your own thread but well in general sense
1.01-1.05 is just on the same spot. 75 matches win steak isnt still that assured but since these are type of experiments then either of these 2 test out
can prove out something.The difference of your system to op is that having multiple bets.

 
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October 25, 2019, 01:46:21 PM
 #27

Good post @kworrom

There seems to be a few common themes in these 1.01-1.05 favorites. Lots of women's sports. Lots of teams who have an economic advantage, a disproportionate amount of money to spend compared to others in their domestic league (for example Real Madrid and Barcelona playing in the Liga ACB). Lots of national competitions where I guess certain countries also have an economic advantage or cultural advantage in developing their program over others.

My bold statement is, that a 1,05 in lets say Handball is way more likely to win than a 1,05 in football. The more room for error there is, the better. In Football one mistake can be crucial, in Handball not so much - you concede a goal because of some mistake, but it doesn't have that much impact, because there is around 50-60 goals scored. Even more so in a sport like Volleyball. You can go on a mental walkabout for a long period of time, but you might still find yourself only down a set. It doesn't matter, if you lose the set 0-25, 10-25 or 23-25, it's still only 0-1 in sets, there is no extra point in beating the shit out of your opponent in one set.

In women sports there is just huge differences regarding fitness, professionalism, mental aspects and whatever. If you take a look at EPL, every player is super fit, they are well coached, take care of their diet etc. The players from the smaller teams are just simply not that talented like players from Liverpool, ManCity, Tottenham. Now in the Womens Premier League on top to not being as talented, the girls from the smaller teams additionally are not as fit, well coached etc. as the girls from the top teams, so the quality gap is much bigger.

In non-mainstream women sports the gaps get even more big and the lower you go, the worse it gets.

Also, it's interesting how odds for many of these events seem to be offered only by sportsbooks with seemingly bad reputations... it makes you wonder if they would even honor an underdog upset or call bad odds. Plus if you believe in the favorite-longshot bias idea (https://www.sbo.net/horse-racing/favourite-longshot-bias/) then the odds on backing these underdogs should pay out much worse than the favorites in the long haul.

Good read, though I have never been into horse racing. The process of setting the odds by starting with the favourites and well known participants and go on from there is the way to go of course. I was following and betting cycling for 15+ years until most of the value had gone due to only one (knowledgeable) bookmaker making their own odds and the rest just copying them. There is 160+ riders in any given cycling race, so could I tell the winning percentage of some scrub from a middle of the pack team ? No. Could I make rather good price predictions for the favourites ? Yes. Now from what I observed, in horse racing there is no such longshots as in cycling. In cycling you see riders priced 100+ all the time. If you have some good reason and/or information to play such longshot, it's not THAT important, if you get @400 or @450. There is a difference, if you get @5 or @6 for a favourite of course (talking longterm here).

In the end it all comes down to value. Depending on your betting style and your mindset, each person has decide for themself what suits him best. I am more of an underdog bettor with my normal bets, without playing too insane odds. A friend of mine thinks that even @10 is kind of low Grin But he has long droughts of losing bet after bet of course, which can wear you down mentally and this should be taken into consideration as well. In betting a lot of ways work, but in the end you can't win longterm without being able to spot valuable odds, be it 1,01 or 10,0.

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October 25, 2019, 02:00:10 PM
 #28

That's a great challenge you do, but I won't be doing that, 100 euro for experiment is such a good amount to me already.
Also, you are like doing a martingale here that you go all in every time and that you need to bet 465 times with consecutive win to make you a millionaire, that's not viable for me actually.

You already won 2 times, good luck for the next 463 bets, hope you win it all.  Grin




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October 25, 2019, 02:01:44 PM
 #29

Bets for low odds and only bets for the sports which you have much knowledge to do so i think this is safe bets although there is no 100% guarantee safe but at least the percentages will more than 90% to won for each bets but i think you have to calculated external factors that because this is gambling so sometimes bets low odds also possibly will loss and the worst part of this strategy is although you won the bets more than 20 times but if you lost at least once time then it will eat all of you initial money

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October 25, 2019, 03:14:21 PM
 #30

I agree with op that it will be more emotional and difficult once the amount reaches to 5 digits (maybe even 4). I tried this many many times playing dice and some other casino games and I didn't have much success. I haven't tried this on sportsbooks. The lowest odds I remembered was betting $400 @1.05 once. I was too confident to win so I made the risk. I won but didn't do it again.

I am not paying attention on very low odds in sportsbooks. I felt it is too risky with immaterial rewards. But because this caught my attention, I tried looking for very low odds.

Manchester City at home, corner 1x2 @1.02 against Aston Villa. I doubt Manchester City can repeat this four hundred times but we're not talking about the same sports and matches though. Grin

Unified boxing champion Katie Taylor @1.03 vs Christina Linardatou. Actually Linardatou's record is 12 wins, only 1 defeat (by decision) and with 6 knckouts. In boxing, a single punch can change the game. I'm scared doing this a hundred times. Grin
         

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October 25, 2019, 05:26:51 PM
 #31

#3 l Handball l WHUN1 l Ferencvaros vs Mosonmagyarovar l 1,03 l 103,98 l Expekt

WON

Bank: 107,10 Euro
W-L: 3-0
Average odds: 1,02

#4 l Football l NED2 l Grafschaap vs Dordrecht l lay 0-0 l 1,02 (lay @42) l 107,10 l Betfair

Over 0,5 is always a bit tricky, sometimes even the most overish games on paper finish 0-0 out of the blue. Dordrecht is conceding a lot this season and Graafschap is huge favourite for this match sitting only at around 1,30ish. Graafschap’s last home match already finished with a scoreless draw, so I hope this rather unusual scoreline for NED2 in general won’t happen two times in a row in the same stadium.

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October 25, 2019, 06:03:58 PM
 #32

Three wins in a row, this is expected at 1.02 odds.

Once you get to a couple dozen wins in a row you'll be beating the odds.

That being said, if you somehow manage to pull this off and make $1 million while recording your bets in this thread religiosly, this thread will go down in history as one of the most epic on Bitcointalk.

Good luck, you will need it.

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October 25, 2019, 06:52:22 PM
 #33

#4 l Football l NED2 l Grafschaap vs Dordrecht l lay 0-0 l 1,02 (lay @42) l 107,10 l Betfair

WON

Bank: 109,57 Euro
W-L: 4-0
Average odds: 1,02

#5 l Am. Football l NCAAF l Alabama+Clemson l Home win parlay l 1,04 l 109,57 l Leonbets

#1 and #2 ranked teams at home against unranked teams. Handicap for both over -30. Since both games start nearly at the same time and Leonbets has highest odds for both (some bookies don't even offer ML) one can parlay these two, which I will do. Can't see any upset here, though miracles happen from time to time in College Football Cheesy


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October 25, 2019, 07:49:20 PM
 #34

#4 l Football l NED2 l Grafschaap vs Dordrecht l lay 0-0 l 1,02 (lay @42) l 107,10 l Betfair

WON

Bank: 109,57 Euro
W-L: 4-0
Average odds: 1,02

#5 l Am. Football l NCAAF l Alabama+Clemson l Home win parlay l 1,04 l 109,57 l Leonbets

#1 and #2 ranked teams at home against unranked teams. Handicap for both over -30. Since both games start nearly at the same time and Leonbets has highest odds for both (some bookies don't even offer ML) one can parlay these two, which I will do. Can't see any upset here, though miracles happen from time to time in College Football Cheesy



Great going bro, already you reach four steps in goal and i wish you reach your final step as soon as possible, and here my sad story just now happened where I placed a bet in Southampton VS Leicester game 1st half goals totals under 4.5 selected odds as 1.15 but I lose my bet in final two minutes.

 
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October 25, 2019, 08:25:39 PM
Last edit: October 25, 2019, 08:53:49 PM by STT
 #35

I agree with op that it will be more emotional and difficult once the amount reaches to 5 digits (maybe even 4).
          

I would split the bet up rather just one amount one bet.  'how easy it is to become a millionaire with betting'   Never thought this because the odds have to be against me for the house or operation running the game to make a profit but the only way I know is to place a bet and lay away the risk then benefit from various bonus offers given.   Otherwise its just a case of spotting odds where the crowd is wrong, glory supporting a big team or something which is at least occasionally possible; none of that adds upto a plan for a million really and I dont see a low risk route to that except by guessing really long odds on a combination bet.
  

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October 25, 2019, 11:53:13 PM
 #36

I agree with op that it will be more emotional and difficult once the amount reaches to 5 digits (maybe even 4).
          

I would split the bet up rather just one amount one bet.  'how easy it is to become a millionaire with betting'   Never thought this because the odds have to be against me for the house or operation running the game to make a profit but the only way I know is to place a bet and lay away the risk then benefit from various bonus offers given.   Otherwise its just a case of spotting odds where the crowd is wrong, glory supporting a big team or something which is at least occasionally possible; none of that adds upto a plan for a million really and I dont see a low risk route to that except by guessing really long odds on a combination bet.
  
He can divide if the capital reaches even with 4 digits to speed up the process somehow.Even though winnings aren't really that big
compared on on spot one bet but this way do lessen up the risk on losing up all the amounts he hardly able to reach.This will take time
if we do decide to stick up with this odds.Slowly but surely? Most likely but as said where theres no guarantee on winning anytime even on the
smallest odd where you do bet.

 
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kworrom
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October 25, 2019, 11:56:39 PM
Last edit: October 26, 2019, 12:47:58 AM by kworrom
 #37

..I dont see a low risk route to that except by guessing really long odds on a combination bet.
The challenge is actually a form of a combination bet, it's very similar. It's known as a mechanical parlay. What is this? With a normal parlay you'd choose X amount of games and add them to your bet slip. This is all fine and dandy, but what if you wanted to combine future events with no odds posted, or combine props that are normally not allowed? A mechanical parlay is where you place one bet and roll the winnings into consecutive bets. For example, say you wanted to create a parlay betting against the (absolutely atrocious) Miami Dolphins in the NFL for their first five games. Another example of this is if you took a player in a tennis tournament, say Rafa Nadal at Roland-Garros (where he is dominant), and bet on him to win every match, rolling the winnings into the next match. This may pay out more than betting on Nadal outright in futures to win the tournament.

Agreed, it's definitely a long shot to make 10,000X on any investment. This is essentially a 466 leg parlay, each leg with 1.02 avg odds. So far so good though, 0.8% towards the goal. I'd hold off on deciding which island to purchase: https://www.privateislandsonline.com/ Praia do Algodão looks like a nice place to settle Grin
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October 26, 2019, 09:50:55 AM
 #38

In the spirit of your challenge--as an experiment I indiscriminately added ~75 matches that were around 1.05 odds or below that start within the next week. They should all win.  Let's see what happens! https://pastebin.com/zh8AK6Xr https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/lowexperiment/ Will update with the result here.

Looks like one team already layed an egg Grin



Those short odds in Basketball are not worth it anyway imo, unless you really know those teams and have some information about injuries, motivation etc. Every now and then a team has a streaky shooting day, where they basically can't miss and the other team has an off-day. Nothing to do about that then. I would only thouch those kind of odds in womens Basketball (and for home teams).

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October 26, 2019, 12:36:52 PM
 #39

In the spirit of your challenge--as an experiment I indiscriminately added ~75 matches that were around 1.05 odds or below that start within the next week. They should all win.  Let's see what happens! https://pastebin.com/zh8AK6Xr https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/lowexperiment/ Will update with the result here.

Looks like one team already layed an egg Grin



Those short odds in Basketball are not worth it anyway imo, unless you really know those teams and have some information about injuries, motivation etc. Every now and then a team has a streaky shooting day, where they basically can't miss and the other team has an off-day. Nothing to do about that then. I would only thouch those kind of odds in womens Basketball (and for home teams).
So you do say that you would exclude out womens basketball out of your selections?
Seems like this one would follow  on the first one.


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tyKiwanuka
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October 26, 2019, 12:46:22 PM
 #40

So you do say that you would exclude out womens basketball out of your selections?

No. In general I would be careful with low odds in Basketball, unless you know your stuff. If I had to touch low odds in Basketball without deeper knowledge about the teams and league, I would look for home teams in womens Basketball in smallish leagues.

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