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Author Topic: A Rational Price For BTC  (Read 366 times)
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October 25, 2019, 10:38:16 PM
 #21

so you think bitcoin price movements can be very expensive depending on the level of difficulty of mining and increasing the hash makes sense, bitcoin can also increase when there is good news that can trigger traders to buy bitcoin like the current condition of bitcoin prices at the exchange who have started to increase prices.

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October 25, 2019, 10:41:49 PM
 #22

Setting bitcoins price on hash is not gonna work.
Bitcoin is just like anything in our daily or online market everything is dictated by the law of supply and demand this is the one who contributes big time om bitcoins price growth from time to time.

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October 25, 2019, 10:49:56 PM
 #23

Why are you making your own price?

Create your own world if you want that to happen.
What difference does it have with those who can control the market if you are doing that?
There is no more freedom in it.
All should rely on how people will use it, if they like it, demands and supply. You could always speculate but never be a dictator of everything.

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October 25, 2019, 11:22:35 PM
Last edit: October 27, 2019, 08:28:02 PM by SapphireSpire
 #24

Toady we have nice move price Bitcoin! How do you feel it?
The current market price is around $8.4k but the hash rate is 90ehs.

90ehs / $0.01 = $9k so I think it's about 7% under-valued.
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October 26, 2019, 12:21:58 AM
 #25

I believe bitcoin price always depend on the market status. The law of supply and demand will always be the factor of the price. The decision of every coin holder whether to hold or to sell will affect the market price.

 
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October 26, 2019, 12:42:14 AM
 #26

I believe bitcoin price always depend on the market status. The law of supply and demand will always be the factor of the price. The decision of every coin holder whether to hold or to sell will affect the market price.
That will never change, even if this catches on.
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October 26, 2019, 10:30:58 PM
 #27

Why are you making your own price?
Because the market price is arbitrary.

Quote from: danherbias07
Create your own world if you want that to happen.
What difference does it have with those who can control the market if you are doing that?
Nobody can control the market but we can at least minimize arbitrary influence by adopting a reasonable pricing formula.

Quote from: danherbias07
There is no more freedom in it.
All should rely on how people will use it, if they like it, demands and supply.
You could always speculate but never be a dictator of everything.
Speculation isn't freedom.
It severely limits utility.
Consumers don't want to buy it and merchants don't want to trade with it.
There is more freedom without speculation.
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October 27, 2019, 05:58:08 PM
 #28

The current market price is around $8.4k but the hash rate is 90zhs.

90zhs / $0.01 = $9k so I think it's about 7% under-valued.

Fixing the ratio at $100 per EH/s is completely arbitrary. You have no basis for that ratio.

Furthermore, the hash rate has risen much more quickly than the price because of technological advances, so the proper price varies wildly depending on when you fix it.

If you fixed the ratio a year ago when the hash rate was about 50 EH/s and the price was $7.5k, you would say that the current price should be $15k.
If you fixed the ratio two years year ago when the hash rate was about 10 EH/s and the price was about $8k, you would say that the current price should be $80k.
If you fixed the ratio 5 years year ago when the hash rate was about 0.3 EH/s and the price was about $400, you would say that the current price should be $120k.

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October 27, 2019, 07:08:18 PM
 #29

not to mention that in the end the only deciding factor is the demand for bitcoin. it can continue to have the same hashrate and as long as the demand continues rising the price will too. and vice versa, meaning if demand decreased, even if the hashrate remains the same, price will fall.
Demand is the only thing that drives the price of bitcoin, i have seen many correlation between the price and the hash rate but the fact is that people tend to spend more money in mining tools only if the price of bitcoin is going up and hence we see that the hash rate is higher whenever there is a rally in bitcoin. In short hash rate is directly proportional to the price of bitcoin or the expected price.

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October 27, 2019, 07:42:06 PM
 #30

You can create a formula based on hash rate, but it won't be rational to anyone looking at it outside of the crypto community. 

I have always said that bitcoin is not like a stock, where an analyst can look at the company's earnings, dividend, growth rate, the CEO's salary, and all sorts of other variables in order to come up with a price that the stock should be selling for.  And even when analysts do come up with a price, there's usually much disagreement about it and it may be completely wrong.

Bitcoin doesn't have intrinsic value based on electricity consumption, hash rates, or anything else.  It's value is derived purely by supply and demand--any attempt to say what bitcoin should be selling for is just delusional IMO, and no offense to OP here.  I bet if you do use OP's method, the price you get will not be what the market says it should be 99.999% of the time, and if that's true the method would be worthless.  Again, no offense.

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October 27, 2019, 07:54:32 PM
Merited by The Pharmacist (2)
 #31

You can create a formula based on hash rate, but it won't be rational to anyone looking at it outside of the crypto community.

It won't be rational, period. Hash rate security obviously underpins Bitcoin's value, but it would be silly to try and produce some mathematical formula like this.

Increasing hash rate simply indicates increased mining investments or efficiency improvements. Miners themselves are speculators. They are investing in mining operations because they expect higher prices. Like all investors, they are prone to over-speculation. Simply put, sometimes they are wrong about the market.

Hash rate had been continually increasing throughout 2018, up until the November crash. Then we had 3 successive drops in difficulty. This clearly shows that miners respond to price, not the other way around. So I think the OP's approach is a bad one.

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October 27, 2019, 09:10:40 PM
 #32

It won't be rational, period. Hash rate security obviously underpins Bitcoin's value, but it would be silly to try and produce some mathematical formula like this.
You could devise a more sophisticated algorithm including other metrics but it would also be more complicated.

Increasing hash rate simply indicates increased mining investments or efficiency improvements. Miners themselves are speculators. They are investing in mining operations because they expect higher prices. Like all investors, they are prone to over-speculation. Simply put, sometimes they are wrong about the market.
It's never wrong to mine for Bitcoin.

Hash rate had been continually increasing throughout 2018, up until the November crash. Then we had 3 successive drops in difficulty. This clearly shows that miners respond to price, not the other way around. So I think the OP's approach is a bad one.
What it shows is that the market is volatile because the most important metric of the blockchain is also the most ignored.
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October 27, 2019, 09:32:53 PM
 #33

Increasing hash rate simply indicates increased mining investments or efficiency improvements. Miners themselves are speculators. They are investing in mining operations because they expect higher prices. Like all investors, they are prone to over-speculation. Simply put, sometimes they are wrong about the market.
It's never wrong to mine for Bitcoin.

Not true. How about if you spend more mining a bitcoin than the market will pay for it? That's why miners were shutting down in November-December 2018, because the crash made them unprofitable. Those miners expected price to rise and they were very wrong.

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October 27, 2019, 10:52:57 PM
 #34

Increasing hash rate simply indicates increased mining investments or efficiency improvements. Miners themselves are speculators. They are investing in mining operations because they expect higher prices. Like all investors, they are prone to over-speculation. Simply put, sometimes they are wrong about the market.
It's never wrong to mine for Bitcoin.

Not true. How about if you spend more mining a bitcoin than the market will pay for it? That's why miners were shutting down in November-December 2018, because the crash made them unprofitable. Those miners expected price to rise and they were very wrong.

Nobody said you have to keep selling as you mine it. When you choose to mine you know you're in for the long run. Like hodler who moves his coins out of the exchange and into a wallet generated offline then prints a paper wallet and hides it. He's not going to dig out and compromise his paper wallet every time the price dips below the price he paid. A miner can also keep mining and holding.

10k is a very rational price. We shouldn't put labels on it but it seems fair to pay this much.

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October 27, 2019, 11:29:33 PM
 #35

It's never wrong to mine for Bitcoin.

Not true. How about if you spend more mining a bitcoin than the market will pay for it? That's why miners were shutting down in November-December 2018, because the crash made them unprofitable. Those miners expected price to rise and they were very wrong.

Nobody said you have to keep selling as you mine it. When you choose to mine you know you're in for the long run.

Anyone can baghold if they want to. That's not the point.

The OP's idea implies miners dictate the market price. That essentially means that miners collectively are always right in their market speculations, and as long as hash rate keeps rising, so will price.

I was just pointing out how that's not true. Therefore you can't extrapolate price or value from the hash rate. Miners are guessing just like the rest of us.

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October 27, 2019, 11:55:17 PM
 #36

Or maybe it is just the opposite.
Hashrates are being driven by bitcoin price, what about that!
If bitcoin price rises then more miners will join and hashrates will rise, if bitcoin price falls then some miners will leave and hashrates will fall.

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October 28, 2019, 04:15:28 AM
 #37

I don't understand how you related hash rates to the current price for BTC. I'm pretty sure that like every other coin out there, BTC price is determined by simple supply and demand though. Even if we do think of Rational Price as something different from normal price, determining it based on Hash rates seems to be wrong. The recent news and events affect supply and demand so if we kind of force it, we can say that it indirectly affects the price and thats quite a legitimate explanation.
Besides, Miners are just like us, speculating on BTC price. I doubt they could set the price of BTC depending on hash rates involved even if they wanted to.

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October 28, 2019, 07:23:12 AM
 #38

BTC price is determined by simple supply and demand though.
True, but if supply and demand is influenced entirely by idle speculation
and whim then the market price represents anything but the real price.

For the price to be real, the market must derive the price from tangible metrics.
Buyers and sellers may not always agree on what that is exactly but everyone
should have an accurate approximation, i.e. by using the same or a similar formula.
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October 28, 2019, 07:35:49 AM
 #39

Or maybe it is just the opposite.
Hashrates are being driven by bitcoin price, what about that!
If bitcoin price rises then more miners will join and hashrates will rise, if bitcoin price falls then some miners will leave and hashrates will fall.


It could be like this, but i'm not sure people are only mine it when the price is high.
If based on your opinion, the miners who still mine when the price still low and no other people mine it, they will get much.
And when the price is up, they will sell.
But i think, bitcoin miners will always mine whatever the price will be, so i think the rise of hashrate is not the reason why bitcoin price pump.

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October 28, 2019, 07:40:40 AM
 #40

Or maybe it is just the opposite.
Hashrates are being driven by bitcoin price, what about that!
If bitcoin price rises then more miners will join and hashrates will rise, if bitcoin price falls then some miners will leave and hashrates will fall.


It could be like this, but i'm not sure people are only mine it when the price is high.
If based on your opinion, the miners who still mine when the price still low and no other people mine it, they will get much.
And when the price is up, they will sell.
But i think, bitcoin miners will always mine whatever the price will be, so i think the rise of hashrate is not the reason why bitcoin price pump.
According to recent news I heard about mining. Mining hash rate increase after the dump of bitcoin. Meaning that miners is still hopeful about the price of bitcoin ddspite the downtrend of price. This might be some factor to be consider. Seeing miners that still positive gives boost to the investor to invest more. I'm not telling that its the main reason but just a factor to be consider.

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