Bitcoin's Latest "Fall" Was Manipulated

[fabiorem]

I agree. The manipulation was evident.
But like I said before, the sudden pump was also manipulated.

Exchanges have small volumes, so any big money makes some difference.

I also expected the price to keep going up after 12k, which would end the recovery phase and bring the price back to the previous ATH by the end of this year.
When I saw the manipulated fall, I turned pessimist, to avoid more surprises.

[wajik-tempe]

wherever i look today it seems like there are a lot of people who are surprised about the "rise", which doesn't make any sense to me because there is nothing surprising about this rise in my experience.

the only thing that surprised me was the Fall!
when the market was in bull mode and the price was strongly rising and we had the reasonable correction after the $13k record, things were normal. then the dumping came and price fell, that part was surprising. when price entered the $7k range again 2 days ago it was one of the most surprising things after the $3k drop earlier this year. that drop was "manipulated".

this "rise" that we are seeing today is not at all surprising. it was long overdue and should have happened a lot sooner. we are seeing the market correction and coming back to real prices once again.

I think no fall was manipulated, it's just the power of the whales and we have adapted with that.
When a group of whales doing mass selling their bitcoin, the market will shaking for sure and they made people panic and then buy their btc again in dip.
This is already a natural law for crypto that who has big amount of btc can control market movement

[Epochjump]

If you know any whales, ask them! traders with a lot of money can easily manipulate the trading because they easily move prices up or down. the most notable manipulations pump and dump schemes are related to minor altcoins. It’s just simpler to change a price of the unknown small coin with a low price. Bitcoin is manipulated too, but lesser. majority of whales grabbed enough BTC earlier.

Hence it’s not manipulated completely by whales. most of the hard volatility are trader volume. the rest are whales, hedge funds and large investors. they don’t manipulate the price that much, they manipulate it then the traders do the rest of the work. the reason why Bitcoin fell from $20,000, because they whales exited completely, then sold into traders on the down trend. All they had to do was wait. It’s predictable what happens when the whales exit the market, it keeps collapsing as people panic at each level.

I know a LOT of these so called "whales". I posted this in another myopic thread about why and how BTC did this and did that. As I predicted my insight was ignored. It will be ignored here as well. "The only thing people hate more than poetry is the truth". If this helps ONE person understand the truth and stop getting manipulated with the rest of the sheep, I'll be happy. All the sheep in that thread ignored this. I speak from over 30 years of experience on the "inside".


"Just an observation based on 30 + years of being a mortgage backed and Treasuries derivatives trader. Right now BTC is a very non liquid vehicle. It is traded by and followed by a lot of very inexperienced investors and speculators. OP is spot on, except left out the most important piece of his conclusion. The media and social media guppies are extremely gullible and easy to fool and manipulate. We as large institutional traders find so much easy money in  the manipulation of the crypto space namely BTC. The majority of people with money in these assets read, and listen to, and react to this utter "bullcrap" put out there in the media. Most of those stories are deliberate "plants". We call it "Astro Turfing". Large speculators create a very negative fundamental story at or near low points that causes people to sell their holdings and amateur speculators to place shorts in the protocol. All the while we are accumulating massive long positions. The exact opposite is done at the highs. Traders have been establishing short positions in BTC since $ 13,500 ish on down to $9,000.00. It is extremely difficult to buy these shorts back in such large volume let alone establish the opposite long position with the low liquidity. So...we create a narrative by planting stories and postings and Social Media entries etc etc. Then the ducks come quaking. So, we feed them. The same exercise is done in reverse for long positions. I am safe in sharing this here with all of you because truth is, no one will believe me. But, That's the beauty of it. This is done in all markets. It's just easiest in BTC right now. It's been going on in the stock market for decades. A much higher level game. Yesterday's price action was not only very predictable but "set up" as shorts covered their positions and switched to " net long" from $9,000 down to $7,400.00. You would all do well for the time being to buy weakness in the price of BTC. The process is still in play. Then when the "news" is extremely good and price is high, get out. You will be in good company."

[Red-Apple]

So what do think should be the real price by now?

I thought months ago that 12k will be its bottom and price should not go below it.
But it did happen. Yes we could say someone or some group manipulated it to buy more.
They are now in profit so maybe they should go away by now or they could just buy again to make bitcoin more valuable.

to my understanding in any market there is a difference between "real price" and the "bottom". real price is the intrinsic value of the asset that basically indicates its real value. but the current price (which could be higher or lower than real price) is the indication of the market state.
so for example if we say real price is $10 then it can go to $9 but if it does it means it has gone below the intrinsic value and should come back up. and if it goes to $11 it has gone up in a bubble and should come back down.

in case of bitcoin at this time in my opinion $10k is the "real value" and anything below that is undervalue and needs to be corrected.

[Finestream]

We have the same theory that the drop was manipulated but I also think that anything which results to sudden pump could also be cause of pure manipulation. Just like what happened recently when BTC pump as high as $10K or more, that's only in a single day and I'm afraid of the possibility that it will dump again. I would rather like to see a constant good price movement that so it would create a strong market and this would result to less volatility, which less risky investing in crypto.

[arwin100]

wherever i look today it seems like there are a lot of people who are surprised about the "rise", which doesn't make any sense to me because there is nothing surprising about this rise in my experience.

the only thing that surprised me was the Fall!
when the market was in bull mode and the price was strongly rising and we had the reasonable correction after the $13k record, things were normal. then the dumping came and price fell, that part was surprising. when price entered the $7k range again 2 days ago it was one of the most surprising things after the $3k drop earlier this year. that drop was "manipulated".

this "rise" that we are seeing today is not at all surprising. it was long overdue and should have happened a lot sooner. we are seeing the market correction and coming back to real prices once again.

I think no fall was manipulated, it's just the power of the whales and we have adapted with that.
When a group of whales doing mass selling their bitcoin, the market will shaking for sure and they made people panic and then buy their btc again in dip.
This is already a natural law for crypto that who has big amount of btc can control market movement

The Hype slowly fades and I expect that to came since for sure many people are just been hyped for the Chinese government statement and provably they sold there coins since some of them earned some percentage of there bough lt coins. But I'm also sure that there's a bounce back of this since remember we have halving coming and many big whales will accumulate since they know the price would rise for that time to come.

[fabiorem]

"Just an observation based on 30 + years of being a mortgage backed and Treasuries derivatives trader. Right now BTC is a very non liquid vehicle. It is traded by and followed by a lot of very inexperienced investors and speculators. OP is spot on, except left out the most important piece of his conclusion. The media and social media guppies are extremely gullible and easy to fool and manipulate. We as large institutional traders find so much easy money in  the manipulation of the crypto space namely BTC. The majority of people with money in these assets read, and listen to, and react to this utter "bullcrap" put out there in the media. Most of those stories are deliberate "plants". We call it "Astro Turfing". Large speculators create a very negative fundamental story at or near low points that causes people to sell their holdings and amateur speculators to place shorts in the protocol. All the while we are accumulating massive long positions. The exact opposite is done at the highs. Traders have been establishing short positions in BTC since $ 13,500 ish on down to $9,000.00. It is extremely difficult to buy these shorts back in such large volume let alone establish the opposite long position with the low liquidity. So...we create a narrative by planting stories and postings and Social Media entries etc etc. Then the ducks come quaking. So, we feed them. The same exercise is done in reverse for long positions. I am safe in sharing this here with all of you because truth is, no one will believe me. But, That's the beauty of it. This is done in all markets. It's just easiest in BTC right now. It's been going on in the stock market for decades. A much higher level game. Yesterday's price action was not only very predictable but "set up" as shorts covered their positions and switched to " net long" from $9,000 down to $7,400.00. You would all do well for the time being to buy weakness in the price of BTC. The process is still in play. Then when the "news" is extremely good and price is high, get out. You will be in good company."

Would you recommend getting rid of DCA strategy?
Thanks to this strategy I bought some fractions of BTC above 11k.
I was aiming for a 100% profit at least. Should I aim lower, lets say 20%?
I will not sell anything right now, because the last price I bought was above the current one.

[BrewMaster]

"Just an observation based on 30 + years of being a mortgage backed and Treasuries derivatives trader. Right now BTC is a very non liquid vehicle. It is traded by and followed by a lot of very inexperienced investors and speculators. OP is spot on, except left out the most important piece of his conclusion. The media and social media guppies are extremely gullible and easy to fool and manipulate. We as large institutional traders find so much easy money in  the manipulation of the crypto space namely BTC. The majority of people with money in these assets read, and listen to, and react to this utter "bullcrap" put out there in the media. Most of those stories are deliberate "plants". We call it "Astro Turfing". Large speculators create a very negative fundamental story at or near low points that causes people to sell their holdings and amateur speculators to place shorts in the protocol. All the while we are accumulating massive long positions. The exact opposite is done at the highs. Traders have been establishing short positions in BTC since $ 13,500 ish on down to $9,000.00. It is extremely difficult to buy these shorts back in such large volume let alone establish the opposite long position with the low liquidity. So...we create a narrative by planting stories and postings and Social Media entries etc etc. Then the ducks come quaking. So, we feed them. The same exercise is done in reverse for long positions. I am safe in sharing this here with all of you because truth is, no one will believe me. But, That's the beauty of it. This is done in all markets. It's just easiest in BTC right now. It's been going on in the stock market for decades. A much higher level game. Yesterday's price action was not only very predictable but "set up" as shorts covered their positions and switched to " net long" from $9,000 down to $7,400.00. You would all do well for the time being to buy weakness in the price of BTC. The process is still in play. Then when the "news" is extremely good and price is high, get out. You will be in good company."

i don't really think anybody who has been around for at least a couple of ups and downs (which usually happen every month) would have a hard time believing this! sometimes it is too obvious what is happening with the way market moves. specially during times when a price move is accompanied by mass media and social media hype. for example during the drop from $6k to $3k we read on the internet that about 5 or 6 countries have banned bitcoin (an obvious lie of course) but it proves how the FUD works.

[Dart18]

And I though all corrections are just going downwards.
Good to see some changes in the market. Correct the price if it does fall too deep and somehow increase without even demands and buyers or any reasons at all.
But truly, how come there are more downwards correction than the vice versa.
Why is it that the price of bitcoin looks like it is too much whenever its value is getting higher?

[Epochjump]

"Just an observation based on 30 + years of being a mortgage backed and Treasuries derivatives trader. Right now BTC is a very non liquid vehicle. It is traded by and followed by a lot of very inexperienced investors and speculators. OP is spot on, except left out the most important piece of his conclusion. The media and social media guppies are extremely gullible and easy to fool and manipulate. We as large institutional traders find so much easy money in  the manipulation of the crypto space namely BTC. The majority of people with money in these assets read, and listen to, and react to this utter "bullcrap" put out there in the media. Most of those stories are deliberate "plants". We call it "Astro Turfing". Large speculators create a very negative fundamental story at or near low points that causes people to sell their holdings and amateur speculators to place shorts in the protocol. All the while we are accumulating massive long positions. The exact opposite is done at the highs. Traders have been establishing short positions in BTC since $ 13,500 ish on down to $9,000.00. It is extremely difficult to buy these shorts back in such large volume let alone establish the opposite long position with the low liquidity. So...we create a narrative by planting stories and postings and Social Media entries etc etc. Then the ducks come quaking. So, we feed them. The same exercise is done in reverse for long positions. I am safe in sharing this here with all of you because truth is, no one will believe me. But, That's the beauty of it. This is done in all markets. It's just easiest in BTC right now. It's been going on in the stock market for decades. A much higher level game. Yesterday's price action was not only very predictable but "set up" as shorts covered their positions and switched to " net long" from $9,000 down to $7,400.00. You would all do well for the time being to buy weakness in the price of BTC. The process is still in play. Then when the "news" is extremely good and price is high, get out. You will be in good company."

Would you recommend getting rid of DCA strategy?
Thanks to this strategy I bought some fractions of BTC above 11k.
I was aiming for a 100% profit at least. Should I aim lower, lets say 20%?
I will not sell anything right now, because the last price I bought was above the current one.

I am a strong believer in Dollar Cost Averaging. Personally I weight purchases to be larger quantities as price moves lower. The only caveat being that your target market is in a legitimate log term bull trend. Which I also strongly believe BTC to be. But I have also used the same approach in exiting longs as the hype and fluff gets overheated. Presently in "accumulation mode" Or DCA as you put it. The view is that today's BTC is for all intents and purposes the same BTC we've had for 4-5 years now. Same scale, same lack of use cases and same slowness. It also get's very expensive and very inefficient in high volume metrics. So it's overall price band is $2,000 - $19,000. Fair Value lies somewhere in between but that is not static. I assess current fundamentals and adjust "range expectation" according to overall atmosphere. We can be reasonably sure though that it is not worth north of $15,000 and it's very cheap below $7,000 in current fundamentals. Yes this can change in a heart beat but as a general rule this approach works.

[figmentofmyass]

I agree. The manipulation was evident.
But like I said before, the sudden pump was also manipulated.

Exchanges have small volumes, so any big money makes some difference.

you said it yourself---this is a low volume, low liquidity market. how do you distinguish between big money moving the market by virtue of illiquidity, and manipulation?

maybe a whale sold to USD on coinbase pro over the past couple months, and panic bought when he saw the market moving into the $8000s again, then the rest of the market followed. is that manipulation? or just a lot of panic buying into thin order books?

[1Referee]

I also expected the price to keep going up after 12k, which would end the recovery phase and bring the price back to the previous ATH by the end of this year.

It's not going to go up that fast, mainly so because of how we're facing significant declines during the december month. I expect a wave up, which I'll sell into mid to end november, then buy back somewhere in the first months of the new year. It's not likely that the market is going to bahave differently this time, and of course expect tax sales to happen.

People speculating on a visit of the ath of $20,000 before the end of the year will be very disappointed, and they have only themselves to blame for.

Yes, the price activity is bullish currently, but that doesn't imply that we're going to break through the $14,000 level just yet. Open up the carts and look at where this year's bull run peaked out. You'll see that it respected the highest monthly close in the history of Bitcoin. We'll need more than a few months to chew through the selling around that level.

[STT]

Manipulated says to me something like fraud or corruption, possibly undisclosed fractional reserves which might be ok in FIAT but would be news on markets here.    I dont think it was any of those things, somebody(s) who had Bitcoin to sell put it into the market and it caused others to sell also.    It might also be some who sold at the start of the move then made the move to buy back what they had sold for the now lower price, this kind of activity would be normal.  Bitcoin would fit in with just about every other market if thats what caused the moves because people are always trying to remove weak hands from the market.  Its the fault of the speculators if they either cannot hold because they were on leverage and a small deposit or they choose to have a tight stop loss on position, this is playground stuff and games happen in open free markets.
   I wont be that surprised if people keep selling off on price near 10k, but they are taking a risk there because 10k by itself isnt important.   Risk vs profit sounds just fair trade, we have to let people decide prices however suits them best.    BTC is really difficult compared to FOREX or many markets because it doesn't pause for the night or weekends but possibly that gives it an extra and advantage over the conventional market price systems.

I keep thinking maybe its not Bitcoin which is the manipulated one, perhaps we now live in a time of volatility but they delivered so many sleeping pills to dollar based markets to keep things calm nobody notices but we see the jumps and drops on the front line right here.

[error08]

I know a LOT of these so called "whales".

"Just an observation based on 30 + years of being a mortgage backed and Treasuries derivatives trader. Right now BTC is a very non liquid vehicle. It is traded by and followed by a lot of very inexperienced investors and speculators.

The media and social media guppies are extremely gullible and easy to fool and manipulate. We as large institutional traders find so much easy money in  the manipulation of the crypto space namely BTC.

Whales, manipulation, social media FUDs seem the main reason for bitcoin's extreme volatility.
It can't reach a higher market capitalization as long as people don't recognize the fundamental technology of bitcoin being an alternative online payment without any government interference.
Bitcoin as an object of manipulation by whales and traders, in this case, the real price of bitcoin should be measured based on mining costs efficiency, which is above $7500 nowadays.

[Epochjump]

I know a LOT of these so called "whales".

"Just an observation based on 30 + years of being a mortgage backed and Treasuries derivatives trader. Right now BTC is a very non liquid vehicle. It is traded by and followed by a lot of very inexperienced investors and speculators.

The media and social media guppies are extremely gullible and easy to fool and manipulate. We as large institutional traders find so much easy money in  the manipulation of the crypto space namely BTC.

Whales, manipulation, social media FUDs seem the main reason for bitcoin's extreme volatility.
It can't reach a higher market capitalization as long as people don't recognize the fundamental technology of bitcoin being an alternative online payment without any government interference.
Bitcoin as an object of manipulation by whales and traders, in this case, the real price of bitcoin should be measured based on mining costs efficiency, which is above $7500 nowadays.

I couldn't agree more. A bit of a rudderless boat for now. So for me the near term probability is as you say. But, if we're talking about a 5 year horizon, I'm confident that we will look back on these levels and shake our heads.Seems analogous to early internet development. Truth be told, there are developers, coders and people dedicated to the transactional side of this amazing protocol, that don't look at or care about the price. It is their contributions that will drive it to much higher levels. BTC WILL change and it will be for the better. It's the real deal.

[figmentofmyass]

I also expected the price to keep going up after 12k, which would end the recovery phase and bring the price back to the previous ATH by the end of this year.

It's not going to go up that fast, mainly so because of how we're facing significant declines during the december month. I expect a wave up, which I'll sell into mid to end november, then buy back somewhere in the first months of the new year. It's not likely that the market is going to bahave differently this time, and of course expect tax sales to happen.

People speculating on a visit of the ath of $20,000 before the end of the year will be very disappointed, and they have only themselves to blame for.

you never know. december 2011, 2016, and 2017 were very bullish months. q1 2013 and 2017 uptrended pretty hard as well.

i think we were all pretty surprised by the way the market ripped through $6k and $10k earlier this year. maybe something like that could happen again. i'm not expecting it but i'm also keeping an open mind.

[KennyR]

I also expected the price to keep going up after 12k, which would end the recovery phase and bring the price back to the previous ATH by the end of this year.

It's not going to go up that fast, mainly so because of how we're facing significant declines during the december month. I expect a wave up, which I'll sell into mid to end november, then buy back somewhere in the first months of the new year. It's not likely that the market is going to bahave differently this time, and of course expect tax sales to happen.

People speculating on a visit of the ath of $20,000 before the end of the year will be very disappointed, and they have only themselves to blame for.

you never know. december 2011, 2016, and 2017 were very bullish months. q1 2013 and 2017 uptrended pretty hard as well.

i think we were all pretty surprised by the way the market ripped through $6k and $10k earlier this year. maybe something like that could happen again. i'm not expecting it but i'm also keeping an open mind.

Yes, almost every year the last month's of the year turns bullish. To what extent this is going to make change in the market can be known based on the growth carried forward to the falling year. This year there is more chances for the growth to take place by the end month and carried to 2020 as it is a big year for bitcoin due to the halving.

[Epochjump]

From an institutional trading perspective, we are looking at the halving as providing 2 significant opportunities. 1) As we are currently in accumulation mode, ( buying significant lots of BTC on any exaggerated weakness ) with the expectation of some type of " Pre-Halving Rally '. We do not expect this rally to be overly powerful. Hopefully above $10,000.00 to $12,000.00. 2) Between 10k-12k longs will be liquidated and between 12k and 14k shorts will be established. Likely the "Pre-halving" rally will catch many BTC buyers/holders off-guard as they expect too much from it. Just like LTC, they will liquidate on weakness, Miners will sell massive positions to pay their expenses and many poorly managed mining farms will submarine. Difficulty will plunge. THEN will be the opportunity of a lifetime.

Caveat Emptor; This prognostication is based on current fundamentals and metrics. Like the previous poster stated. This could change. If there is a breakthrough in Lightning Network or use cases, ie; Amazon accepts BTC as a means of payment, then we will adjust. For now though...this is the plan.

[bitbunnny]

We have the same theory that the drop was manipulated but I also think that anything which results to sudden pump could also be cause of pure manipulation. Just like what happened recently when BTC pump as high as $10K or more, that's only in a single day and I'm afraid of the possibility that it will dump again. I would rather like to see a constant good price movement that so it would create a strong market and this would result to less volatility, which less risky investing in crypto.

If we accept that theory about price and market manipulation I would really like to know who has such power to manipulate the price. And don't say that whales did that.
Also, if Bitcoin base is decentralization, independency and freedom how come that the price is manipulated all the time? Then there is really no big difference compared to fiat.

[Epochjump]

We have the same theory that the drop was manipulated but I also think that anything which results to sudden pump could also be cause of pure manipulation. Just like what happened recently when BTC pump as high as $10K or more, that's only in a single day and I'm afraid of the possibility that it will dump again. I would rather like to see a constant good price movement that so it would create a strong market and this would result to less volatility, which less risky investing in crypto.

If we accept that theory about price and market manipulation I would really like to know who has such power to manipulate the price. And don't say that whales did that.
Also, if Bitcoin base is decentralization, independency and freedom how come that the price is manipulated all the time? Then there is really no big difference compared to fiat.

I will offer this. I believe the "manipulation" mantra is over exaggerated. It's just that when fundamentals are neutral to stagnant, and the asset is iliquid, it lends itself to short term movement within certain ranges. BTC is in exactly that scenario now. Add to that the fact that there is so much bad information out there and things can be circulated without any vetting or verification. We live in a society where far too many people believe everything they read on the computer or hear in the news and believe it. Most of it is complete garbage. It becomes easier to "Astro Turf " the playing field and create False information, buzz and fear. Large institutional money recognizes this and takes full advantage of it. Of course. Once BTC catches more use cases, rapid growth and larger user base, this becomes increasingly more difficult. IMHO.