The pain of playing unders in Football

[tyKiwanuka]

Does anyone of you play unders in Football ? I basically never did it and the few times I did, I hated it. Who in this world is watching/following a football match and doesn’t want to see goals scored ? Unless you are fan of a team of course and want it to win…..but even then, if your team is leading 2-0 you would be biting your nails and hope your team DOES NOT to score another goal – this is just madness.

The problem with this is, that I think there is loads of value in playing unders, just because people love playing overs and thus the odds are driven down a lot often times. This threads purpose is to get rid of my under-phobia and I will document my possible healing publicly.

I will mainly stick with german competitions (GER1, GER2 and Cup) mixing it up with other leagues every now and then if I stumble across something, in my opinion, worthwhile. If this whole thing isn’t too nerve-wrecking, I will try to play 100 unders and see where I stand after that.

I will start with only 500,- Euro and stake 2% flat to prevent any heart attacks. Will do short write-ups for the bets I am playing.

The first bets for todays cup matches in Germany:

#1 l CUPGER l Kaiserslautern – Nuremberg I under 2,5 l 2,08 l 10,00 Euro l Dafabet
Kaiserslautern sort of underish team, especially at home. For today they will probably park the bus and go on from there. Nuremberg has huge trouble against defensive-minded teams so I don’t see lots of goals scored.

#2 l CUPGER l Wolfsburg – Leipzig l under 2,5 l 2,20 l 9,80 Euro l bwin
Both teams very well organized and with troubles scoring lately. Wolfsburg has played under in 8 of their 13 matches this season and they will probably sit back first and watch how things unfold, while Leipzig isn’t the most confident team in the world right now as well. Their Bundesliga match some days ago in Leipzig ended 1-1.

#3 l CUPGER l Dortmund – Gladbach l under 2,5 l 2,58 l 9,60 Euro l Pinnacle
Dortmund really poor right now, only scored one goal in their last 3 matches, but only conceded twice as well. Gladbach rather underish tendency on travels, Bundesliga match some days ago ended 1-0.

#4 l CUPGER l Düsseldorf – Aue l under 2,5 l 2,30 l 9,41 Euro l Bet365
Aue has surprised me this season. There is lots of goals scored in their matches this season, but I don’t see them doing anything for the game today. They will sit back and look for counter attacks. Düsseldorf is missing some important creative players and are not the most confident team right now, so they will struggle to find the back of the net against this Aue team.

[swogerino]

I think this is a bet that few players like to play it.I think that the reason is easy enough to understand,when playing Under in the moment that a more number of goals are scored the bet is lost while by playing Over your hopes of winning the bet remains alive for a more amount of time and Over happens more than Under I think.I rarely have played Under and almost always have lost the bet so I can understand your pain.The same can be said for both teams to score,when playing yes you have hopes until the end of the game,when playing no if both teams score the bet is lost and that is the reason many players play the yes option.

[Mahanton]

I think this is a bet that few players like to play it.I think that the reason is easy enough to understand,when playing Under in the moment that a more number of goals are scored the bet is lost while by playing Over your hopes of winning the bet remains alive for a more amount of time and Over happens more than Under I think.I rarely have played Under and almost always have lost the bet so I can understand your pain.The same can be said for both teams to score,when playing yes you have hopes until the end of the game,when playing no if both teams score the bet is lost and that is the reason many players play the yes option.

Im not really into betting with under but depending on some games that i do look or feel that wont able to reach up above that point.
I can really feel the pain and the time where your excitement is killing gradually by nervous and thrills when you are already on the boundary
of your bet for it to lost.Base up on experience i do see more in Overs than unders and i do make up some several bet of it back in previous months.

[efialtis]

Man, I am exactly the same - I NEVER bet on unders for all the reasons you mentioned, I hate it - while I am regularly playing overs (actually 90% of my bets are on overs), I cant remember having placed a bet on an under EVER! 

Good luck to you of course - I will come back regularly and see how it goes.

[tyKiwanuka]

#1 l CUPGER l Kaiserslautern – Nuremberg I under 2,5 l 2,08 l 10,00 Euro l Dafabet
#2 l CUPGER l Wolfsburg – Leipzig l under 2,5 l 2,20 l 9,80 Euro l bwin
#3 l CUPGER l Dortmund – Gladbach l under 2,5 l 2,58 l 9,60 Euro l Pinnacle
#4 l CUPGER l Düsseldorf – Aue l under 2,5 l 2,30 l 9,41 Euro l Bet365

Well, this was pretty poor This under-phobia seems to be a nasty disease and the curing might take some time. The unders in Kaiserslautern and Düsseldorf were already on life support at halftime, when 2 goals each were already scored. So these going over was no surprise. Leipzig led only 1-0 at half-time, but Wolfsburg decided to field their womens team for the second half, so Leipzig dominated at will from then on and won 6-1 in the end. Dortmund under looked good until 71st minute with no goals. But 3 goals in 9 minutes destroyed that under too. 7/8 matches went over in the cup matches today. Better luck next time hopefully

Bank: 461,19 Euro
W/L: 0-4
Yield: -100%

[LTU_btc]

Oh, man, sorry for your loses. Cup matches are risky to bet in general, not only when we talk about unders.
Same like people above, I also rarely bet on unders and main reasons why is already said by you. I bet on it sometimes, but my win % doesn't looks good at all. While I bet on overs frequently and I can't complain much about my results.
Wish you better luck in further bets. It will be interesting to follow your progress.

[mu_enrico]

I don't recommend playing under for cup (or elimination) matches because the mindset of both teams is like "I must win, or I'm out" then "f*ck this sh*t" mode.

You could try to play under in league matches, by looking at the historical stats, the goal scored, goal conceded, etc. I still remember a moment when (for example) Manchester United under Mourinho, when they were called Drawchester.

[bering]

I can see all of your bets were lost because most of match have the score over than 2 goals if we talking about options bets then compare to the odds between unders and overs indeed playing unders have high odds but it's risky for me although bets for popular match or big match but i had failed to do so and bets unders currently is not my option again unless bets for live match but my bets results during bets for this option was very bad

[tyKiwanuka]

#5 l GER2 l Regensburg - Osnabrück l under 2,5 l 2,17 l 9,22 Euro l SBO

Osnabrück failed to score in their last 4 matches and I doubt they will be able to score today. On the other hand they are pretty stable defensively, never conceiding a lot. In total they have 8 unders out of 11 matches played. Regensburg is no scoring machine. They lost some good players in summer break and still looking to find their rhythm. I see a low scoring game with the most likely outcomes being 0-0, 1-0 or 2-0.

[Pmalek]

Look at it this way. Just because your team is leading 2:0 it doesn't mean that they can score a third goal. And you wouldn't want the team you support to concede a goal either because a 2:1 can easily be turned around to a 2:2 as well.

Regarding unders, there are leagues where they occur quite often. For example in the French 2nd league - Ligue 2.
In contrast to the french league, stay away from the Dutch 2nd league - Eerste Divisie, that one is famous for many goals and both teams scoring. Finding a under could have great value there. 

[Haunebu]

It all comes down the league and the team and their current form. I usually focus on moneyline bets since I achieved maximum success with them, but I have achieved limited success with various prop bets including unders by doing my research.

Example : https://www.soccervista.com/soccer_leagues_ordered_by_number_of_goals.php

I love this site and I highly recommend it to anyone searching for soccer statistics.

[tyKiwanuka]

#5 l GER2 l Regensburg - Osnabrück l under 2,5 l 2,17 l 9,22 Euro l SBO

3-3, I guess even a monkey could do better, unders just suck big time

Bank: 451,97 Euro
W/L: 0-5
Yield: -100%

But I have to get to 100 bets, lets see how long it takes until I find a winner.

#6 l GER2 l Aue - Heidenheim l under 2,5 l 2,06 l 9,04 Euro l SBO
#7 l GER2 l Fürth - Darmstadt l under 2,5 l 2,00 l 8,86 Euro l SBO
#8 l GER2 l St. Pauli - Karlsruhe l under 2,5 l 2,19 l 8,68 Euro l SBO

Going with under in all GER2 matches on Saturday as all those teams are underish teams in my book (Aue is pretty overish this season, but normally they are clear under team). Often times when two underish teams meet, there is some kind of goal festival, hope this is not the case tomorrow.

For GER1, I took these unders:

#9 l GER1 l Leverkusen - Gladbach l under 2,5 l 2,73 l 8,51 Euro l Pinnacle
I wouldn't be surprised to see loads of goals here, but those under odds are very good. Gladbach on away games has a tendency for unders and Leverkusen wasn't very sharp offensively lately.

#10 l GER1 l Frankfurt - Bayern l under 3,5 l 2,03 l 8,34 Euro l SBO
Bayern isn't super confident at the moment, they won the last 3 games, but played poorly. There weren't a lot of matches going over 3,5 when Bayern visited Frankfurt in recent years and I don't see a lot of goals this year as well.

[mitchr4]

It's too risky to take under 2.5 in big matches especially if a strong team against a weak team will make a lot of goals. Why not take under 3.5/3 is a little safe even though the odds are smaller between @1.3-1.5 and it would be better if you make a parlay.

[ralle14]

It's too risky to take under 2.5 in big matches especially if a strong team against a weak team will make a lot of goals. Why not take under 3.5/3 is a little safe even though the odds are smaller between @1.3-1.5 and it would be better if you make a parlay.

Doing parlays with smaller odds is not the best because it only takes one to lose everything.  Straight bets is always better even if OP is mostly getting losses and only wins like 1-3 times at least he's winning some of it back while on parlays this isn't always possible unless he always win most of his leg then cashes out those parlays before the losing leg comes in. I'm guessing OP is forcing himself to take odds above 2 because it only takes a 50% win rate to recover while on lower odds you'll need to go slightly above since you're getting less. 

[tyKiwanuka]

It's too risky to take under 2.5 in big matches especially if a strong team against a weak team will make a lot of goals.

That would mean that it's un-risky to take over 2,5 in these kind of games, no ? Wonder why everyone is still going to work every day.

I'm guessing OP is forcing himself to take odds above 2 because it only takes a 50% win rate to recover while on lower odds you'll need to go slightly above since you're getting less. 

Not forcing myself, but sticking with under 2,5 mainly and you won't find lots of odds below 2,00 for under 2,5 in german leagues

#6 l GER2 l Aue - Heidenheim l under 2,5 l 2,06 l 9,04 Euro l SBO
#7 l GER2 l Fürth - Darmstadt l under 2,5 l 2,00 l 8,86 Euro l SBO
#8 l GER2 l St. Pauli - Karlsruhe l under 2,5 l 2,19 l 8,68 Euro l SBO
#9 l GER1 l Leverkusen - Gladbach l under 2,5 l 2,73 l 8,51 Euro l Pinnacle
#10 l GER1 l Frankfurt - Bayern l under 3,5 l 2,03 l 8,34 Euro l SBO

Well, found at least one under this time Lots of goals were scored in GER1+GER2 yesterday - only 2 unders in 9 games with an average of 3,89 goals per game.

Bank: 427,16 Euro
W/L: 1-9
Yield: -79,64%

Only one under for today that I like out of 5 matches:

#11 l GER2 l Wehen - Hamburg l under 2,5 l 2,57 l 8,54 Euro l Pinnacle

Wehen promoted this season and learned that their offensive-minded playing style won't work in this league. So they switched to a more defensive approach. And it paid off, they are 2-2-0 since then with 1-3 over/under. Last two matches finished 0-0. I don't think they will score today against powerhouse Hamburg. If Hamburg manages to score 3 then is to be seen.

[tyKiwanuka]

#11 l GER2 l Wehen - Hamburg l under 2,5 l 2,57 l 8,54 Euro l Pinnacle

Found another winner here. Was pretty comfortable as Wehen scored the equalizer only in injury time. Hamburg could have scored a dozen here, but were just too pathetic to put the ball over the line.

Bank: 440,57 Euro
W/L: 2-9
Yield: -59,43%

Adding two matches from Champions League here:
 
#12 l UCL l Dortmund – Inter l under 2,5 l 2,07 l 8,81 Euro l Pinnacle
I expect Inter to play ultra-defensively. All they want is probably  a draw here. If they happen to lose, they should take care not losing the H2H as it might be important in the end. Dortmund isn’t convincing me lately and I expect thm to have a hard time scoring here.

#13 l UCL l Valencia – Lille l under 2,5 l 1,83 l 8,64 l Pinnacle
Very important match for both. While Valencia could eventually live with a draw, Lille needs to win here badly to have any hope for promotion to the Playoffs. Problem is, they are probably too weak to get anything going in Mestalla and opening a shootout with the hosts might not be a good idea. Both teams weren’t very successful in finding the back of the net of their opponents in this years CL campaign scoring only 2 goals each so far. Expecting both teams to take a more careful approach at first with the game being more open the closer we get to the final whistle, but that may be too late for 3+ goals.

[Naida_BR]

I avoid gambling on unders in football.
In my opinion, there is not any point in betting for an under. It is not fan at all and you get stressed everytime a team tries to score a goal. Football is about watching a lot of goals scored in a match and not the opposite.

[pleasureteam]

I would say skip German leagues to go under 2.5 goals. German and for example dutch leagues are known for lots of goals.
I sometimes like to gamble unders as well but mostly Italian, Spanish and French leagues.

[rdbase]

Agreed with the poster who said unders for goals in any league is very risky.
I barely bet on german league games but most of the time I see over 2 goals scored by each team every time.

[LbtalkL]

I bet on under sometimes but it depends on the teams who are playing. If they are evenly match probably they cant score that much if both teams defense is good. Or both teams are not really good I bet under too but if a strong team versus weak team not a chance I will go over.