The pain of playing unders in Football

[tyKiwanuka]

#12 l UCL l Dortmund – Inter l under 2,5 l 2,07 l 8,81 Euro l Pinnacle
#13 l UCL l Valencia – Lille l under 2,5 l 1,83 l 8,64 l Pinnacle

Two losers again. Valencia under looked rather good for a long time, but Lille just imploded in the latter stages.

Bank: 423,12 Euro
W/L: 2-11
Yield: -65,46%

I like two unders from todays CL matches.

#14 l UCL l Bayern - Olympiacos l Olympiacos under 0,5 l 2,22 l 8,46 Euro l Pinnacle
Slightly different bet this time, but I like it very much. Bayern sacked Kovac and Flick has taken over as interim coach. Bayern are sitting comfortably at the top of the table in their group and their main goal in the next few games is to play more organized and get some stability in defense (though they are missing Hernandez and Süle). Bayern won't go all out here and open space for Olympiacos - they have the big match against in Dortmund in mind, so after having probably a 2-0 lead, they will sit back and save their energies. Olympiacos will have a hard time scoring here.

#15 l UCL l Atalanta - ManCity l under 3,5 l 1,81 l 8,29 Euro l Pinnacle
ManCity is in the same situation as Bayern, not form-wise, but table-wise. They will take first place in this extremely weak group. And they have bigger things coming up in the next days, e.g. playing Liverpool on Sunday. So they won't waste any energy here, probably rotating a bit. We saw yesterday with Liverpool what happens then. ManCity will want to control the game, maybe take the lead and then sit back to get back to UK asap and prepare for Liverpool. They might be even satisfied with a draw here, a loss won't do no harm as well in the end.

[Krislaw]

It's too risky to take under 2.5 in big matches especially if a strong team against a weak team will make a lot of goals. Why not take under 3.5/3 is a little safe even though the odds are smaller between @1.3-1.5 and it would be better if you make a parlay.

Under 3.5 is also risky. Remember Liverpool vs Arsenal game? You wouldn't have expected such numbers of goals. I would rather bet on half time goals or bet under 2.5 against a weak team.

[Naida_BR]

It's too risky to take under 2.5 in big matches especially if a strong team against a weak team will make a lot of goals. Why not take under 3.5/3 is a little safe even though the odds are smaller between @1.3-1.5 and it would be better if you make a parlay.

Under 3.5 is also risky. Remember Liverpool vs Arsenal game? You wouldn't have expected such numbers of goals. I would rather bet on half time goals or bet under 2.5 against a weak team.

In general under is very risky. The most combinations of teams prove that the matches are going to end up with an over.
Only in the case where both teams are of bad quality and they dont have strong attackers can end up in under.

[Sahyadri]

Does anyone of you play unders in Football ? I basically never did it and the few times I did, I hated it. Who in this world is watching/following a football match and doesn’t want to see goals scored ? Unless you are fan of a team of course and want it to win…..but even then, if your team is leading 2-0 you would be biting your nails and hope your team DOES NOT to score another goal – this is just madness.

The problem with this is, that I think there is loads of value in playing unders, just because people love playing overs and thus the odds are driven down a lot often times. This threads purpose is to get rid of my under-phobia and I will document my possible healing publicly.

I will mainly stick with german competitions (GER1, GER2 and Cup) mixing it up with other leagues every now and then if I stumble across something, in my opinion, worthwhile. If this whole thing isn’t too nerve-wrecking, I will try to play 100 unders and see where I stand after that.

I will start with only 500,- Euro and stake 2% flat to prevent any heart attacks. Will do short write-ups for the bets I am playing.

The first bets for todays cup matches in Germany:

#1 l CUPGER l Kaiserslautern – Nuremberg I under 2,5 l 2,08 l 10,00 Euro l Dafabet
Kaiserslautern sort of underish team, especially at home. For today they will probably park the bus and go on from there. Nuremberg has huge trouble against defensive-minded teams so I don’t see lots of goals scored.

#2 l CUPGER l Wolfsburg – Leipzig l under 2,5 l 2,20 l 9,80 Euro l bwin
Both teams very well organized and with troubles scoring lately. Wolfsburg has played under in 8 of their 13 matches this season and they will probably sit back first and watch how things unfold, while Leipzig isn’t the most confident team in the world right now as well. Their Bundesliga match some days ago in Leipzig ended 1-1.

#3 l CUPGER l Dortmund – Gladbach l under 2,5 l 2,58 l 9,60 Euro l Pinnacle
Dortmund really poor right now, only scored one goal in their last 3 matches, but only conceded twice as well. Gladbach rather underish tendency on travels, Bundesliga match some days ago ended 1-0.

#4 l CUPGER l Düsseldorf – Aue l under 2,5 l 2,30 l 9,41 Euro l Bet365
Aue has surprised me this season. There is lots of goals scored in their matches this season, but I don’t see them doing anything for the game today. They will sit back and look for counter attacks. Düsseldorf is missing some important creative players and are not the most confident team right now, so they will struggle to find the back of the net against this Aue team.

Although the returns on betting for the unders are high but also they come with high risk too. I generally go for the overs and with the majority but there was this time when i was confident about one of the unders to win and they did which got me good returns. Post that I played with unders but lost all. So now I go with the majority although less rewarding but the win is sure atleast ! wishing you good luck on this ! 

[tyKiwanuka]

#14 l UCL l Bayern - Olympiacos l Olympiacos under 0,5 l 2,22 l 8,46 Euro l Pinnacle
#15 l UCL l Atalanta - ManCity l under 3,5 l 1,81 l 8,29 Euro l Pinnacle

Two in a row. Feels like Christmas being early. Maybe I can put together some streak

Bank: 440,16 Euro
W/L: 4-11
Yield: -44,59%

#16 l UEL l Möchengladbach - Roma l under 2,5 l 2,27 l 8,80 Euro l Pinnacle
Mönchengladbach are leading the table in Bundesliga, but in UEL they have been pretty poor so far with 0-2-1. Not sure, if they are THAT interested in UEL as it always means a distraction for the main goal of doing good in domestic league. Mönchengladbach has some injury woes, especially upfront, where Plea, Thuram and Embolo are injured. Embolo will be sidelined, while Thuram and Plea could see limited time on the pitch, but won’t be at 100%. Rome is probably satisfied with a draw here and won’t push relentlessly. So I see good value in these odds.

#17 l UEL l Wolfsburg - Gent l under 2,5 l 2,20 l 8,63 Euro l Pinnacle
Wolfsburg were a bit shaky in their last matches. Their opponents were able to score 9 on them in the last two matches, which is very unusual. It has to be noted though, that those goals came from powerhouses Dortmund and Leipzig – Gent is not in that category. So for today I think Wolfsburg wants to find some defensive stability again and keep a clean sheet. They are no goal scoring machine, so lets see, if they can make this game an over on their own.

[tyKiwanuka]

#16 l UEL l Möchengladbach - Roma l under 2,5 l 2,27 l 8,80 Euro l Pinnacle
#17 l UEL l Wolfsburg - Gent l under 2,5 l 2,20 l 8,63 Euro l Pinnacle

A bit unlucky with the under in Mönchengladbach, 2-1 was scored in 95th minute only The unders often look good until half-time, but always go over in second half. Looks good for some trading.

Bank: 422,73 Euro
W/L: 4-13
Yield: -50,96%

#18 l GER2 l Dresden - Wehen l under 2,5 l 2,33 l 8,45 Euro l SBO
As I wrote earlier, Wehen is taking a more defensive approach lately and it has paid off so far. Dresden, apart from the cup match in Berlin, has huge trouble scoring, while doing pretty good defensively. Two poor teams with troubles scoring, but also not conceding a lot in a very important match are good ingredients for under here. Good value from my point of view.

The other two matches in GER1 & GER2 look overish, so no bets there.

[tyKiwanuka]

#18 l GER2 l Dresden - Wehen l under 2,5 l 2,33 l 8,45 Euro l SBO

No sweat here, 1-0.

Bank: 433,96 Euro
W/L: 5-13
Yield: -41,25%

Lots of matches on Saturday of course, lets see, if we can make some bucks with those hated unders.

#19 l GER2 l Sandhausen - Fürth l under 2,5 l 1,90 l 8,68 Euro l SBO
Sandhausen is the most underish team in GER2. If possible, they would probably sign a 0-0 pre-match every time. Just very ugly and boring football, 2-10 over/under this season. Fürth plays more under than over as well. They have a few good offensive players, but still only score 1,16 goals per game. H2H @Sandhausen is also in huge favour of the under - only one over in 7 games played, last two matches finished 0-0 each, which is also a very likely result this time. Odds for Fürth win are pretty high btw; if there is a winner, it should be Fürth, so pricing them at 3,35 (Pinnacle) is wrong imo and gives good value.

#20 l GER2 l Osnabrück - Stuttgart l under 2,5 l 2,38 l 8,51 Euro l Pinnacle
After failing to score for four consecutive games, Osnabrück finally broke the spell and put three into the net last round in Regensburg, but don't let that fool you. They are struggling a lot offensively, the midfielders are not very creative, but their defense is fine. Stuttgart has some off-days defensively from time to time, but this Osnabrück team won't give them too many headaches. Lets see, if Stuttgart can score three here.

#21 l GER1 l Hertha - Leipzig l under 2,5 l 2,51 l 8,34 Euro l Pinnacle
The stats point to a clear over here. Combined these two teams played 15-5 over/under this season in Bundesliga and 4-0 in cup matches. H2H has tons of goals too with results like 5-0 / 2-6 / 2-3 / 1-4. And still I like the under with these odds in this spot. Hertha is struggling lately and Leipzig was in Russia mid-week for their CL match and had a lot of matches recently anyway and some fatigue is to be expected. So I am hoping that Leipzig tries to get the three points with minimal effort here, a draw wouldn't be the end of the world for them too.

#22 l GER1 l Bayern - Dortmund l under 3,5 l 1,81 l 8,17 Euro l Dafabet
Bayern didn't convince me against Olympiacos. They were pretty toothless and would have gotten into some more trouble against stronger opposition, but Oly just came for a 0-0 and later even continued defending a 0-1, showing no offensive efforts whatsoever. Bayern will still look for defensive stability first and Dortmund often has performed poorly when travelling to Munich. So I don't see some goalfest here, but it can happen of course.

[tyKiwanuka]

#19 l GER2 l Sandhausen - Fürth l under 2,5 l 1,90 l 8,68 Euro l SBO
#20 l GER2 l Osnabrück - Stuttgart l under 2,5 l 2,38 l 8,51 Euro l Pinnacle
#21 l GER1 l Hertha - Leipzig l under 2,5 l 2,51 l 8,34 Euro l Pinnacle
#22 l GER1 l Bayern - Dortmund l under 3,5 l 1,81 l 8,17 Euro l Dafabet

Hard business this under business Lots of matches go way over.

Bank: 420,52 Euro
W/L: 6-16
Yield: -41,02%

In GER1 there is now 71,9% of games going over and 28,1% going under since the start of the season. Insane numbers and I doubt this will continue. So I will play every game in GER1 under from now on without explanation.

In GER2 there have been 51,3% of games going over and 48,7% going under, so pretty balanced.

#23 l GER2 l Darmstadt - Regensburg l under 2,5 l 2,23 l 8,41 Euro l SBO
Under-team against over-team. Darmstadt is very limited offensively and Regensburg isn't the team that can easily score against a well organised defensive-minded team. Last season both matches ended 1-1 and I expect a similar result for tomorrow.

#24 l GER1 l Mönchengladbach - Werder l under 2,5 l 2,74 l 8,24 Euro l Pinnacle
#25 l GER1 l Wolfsburg - Leverkusen l under 2,5 l 2,11 l 8,08 Euro l SBO
#26 l GER1 l Freiburg - Frankfurt l under 2,5 l 2,31 l 7,92 Euro l Pinnacle

[Swordsoffreedom]

In GER1 there is now 71,9% of games going over and 28,1% going under since the start of the season. Insane numbers and I doubt this will continue. So I will play every game in GER1 under from now on without explanation.

How does this make sense? Ok, I get it that 71.9% is above expectations and more than last season. But that doesn't mean that future games will be mostly unders in order to lower this percentage. I checked some stats and average number of goals per match fluctuates quite a lot from season to season so maybe 2019/2020 will simply be full of goals.

Bundesliga stats from SoccerSTATS:

Code:

Season		Goals per match		Games with over 2.5 goals
2015/2016	2.83			55.9%
2016/2017	2.87			54.9%	
2017/2018	2.79			52.0%
2018/2019	3.18			62.4%

[tyKiwanuka]

How does this make sense? Ok, I get it that 71.9% is above expectations and more than last season. But that doesn't mean that future games will be mostly unders in order to lower this percentage. I checked some stats and average number of goals per match fluctuates quite a lot from season to season so maybe 2019/2020 will simply be full of goals.

Bundesliga stats from SoccerSTATS:

Code:

Season		Goals per match		Games with over 2.5 goals
2015/2016	2.83			55.9%
2016/2017	2.87			54.9%	
2017/2018	2.79			52.0%
2018/2019	3.18			62.4%

It probably doesn't make any sense at all from a statistical point of view tbh. I don't put too much emphasis on statistics normally though; more going with what I see on the pitch and doing my own analysis. There is teams that are under teams in my book, but have been overish a lot this season, so I expect these teams to slow down with the overs and get to 50/50 with over/under.
These teams are: Mainz, Hertha, Freiburg, Köln, Augsburg, Düsseldorf, Schalke, Paderborn (Paderborn is over-team normally, but don't belong in GER1 quality-wise). Frankfurt is 9-1, Dortmund 9-2, Leipzg 8-3 - a bit too much as well, so expect them to go maybe 50/50 from now on.

So, thats already 60% of teams for which I expect a more underish tendency in the upcoming weeks. Now I could just pick the games with these teams involved, but it's only a few games, where one of these teams is not involved, so why not play them all.

I am only using tiny stakes here to get used to playing unders, since I think there is often value in under odds as I explained in the opening post. Till now, can't say that I was very successful. Probably poor pick selection, maybe just bad timing, who knows. But to get a feel for it, this has been very valuable so far for me. I didn't expect to make huge gains right from the get-go. The positive things is, that I am more relaxed now, when watching a football match and having a bet on the under. So this is already an improvement But could also get worse again when I start to stake more on unders

[tyKiwanuka]

#23 l GER2 l Darmstadt - Regensburg l under 2,5 l 2,23 l 8,41 Euro l SBO
#24 l GER1 l Mönchengladbach - Werder l under 2,5 l 2,74 l 8,24 Euro l Pinnacle
#25 l GER1 l Wolfsburg - Leverkusen l under 2,5 l 2,11 l 8,08 Euro l SBO
#26 l GER1 l Freiburg - Frankfurt l under 2,5 l 2,31 l 7,92 Euro l Pinnacle

Two goals in 88th and 90th minute in Darmstadt ruined the day a bit, but at least didn't lose more. There was even a fourth goal scored in Darmstadt, so it was 3 goals in 6 minutes, crazy.

Bank: 423,21 Euro
W/L: 8-18
Yield: -33,91%

#27 l GER2 l Karlsruhe - Aue l under 2,5 l 2,13 l 8,46 Euro l Dafabet
Aue has slowed down a bit after a fantastic start of the season. They are usually very defensive-minded, especially on away games. They will be satisfied with a draw here and won't push for 3 points. Karlsruhe has had some crazy games this season, but they are normally not playing very offensively as well and like to sit back. I expect a boring game with a 1-1 draw in the end.

[tyKiwanuka]

#27 l GER2 l Karlsruhe - Aue l under 2,5 l 2,13 l 8,46 Euro l Dafabet

Bit lucky here, as with 1-1 an awarded penalty by the referee was taken away by VAR again.

Bank: 432,77 Euro
W/L: 9-18
Yield: -28,62%

Will pick some unders for the international matches, until the domestlc leagues start again. So here we go.

#28 l Czech Republic - Kosovo l under 2,5 l 1,97 l 8,66 Euro l SBO
Crucial match here this evening. Kosovo won the home leg 2-1 and both teams fight for second spot in this group behind England sitting only 1 point apart. I think both teams will be fine with a draw here, though they surely would love to take the 3 points. With a win, Czech Republic would already qualify, but it won't be easy against this Kosovo team, that only lost once (against England) in more than 2 years. A draw means Czech Republic still has one point advantage over Kosovo and they will travel to their showdown in last round against poor Bulgaria. If Kosovo loses, they are out, so I think they will take very cautious approach, just park the bus and pray for a win in last round against then most likely already qualified England, while hoping for some pride from bulgarian side to not lose against in last home match against Czech Republic. I see a very tactical game, where both teams put their emphasis on just not to lose.

[tyKiwanuka]

#28 l Czech Republic - Kosovo l under 2,5 l 1,97 l 8,66 Euro l SBO

0-0 HT, 2-1 FT, never happens, when I play overs

Bank: 424,11 Euro
W/L: 9-19
Yield: -31,16%

#29 l Romania - Sweden l under 2,5 l 1,67 l 8,48 Euro l Dafabet
A draw would probably feel like a win for Sweden. Will keep them at second place and would 99% mean the qualification for EC with a home game against Faroe Islands on the horizon, where 3 safe points are to be expected. Sweden, if needed, can be a super hard nut to crack defensively and I expect them wanting to keep a clean sheet for whatever it takes this evening. Romania are no worldbeaters offensively, so don't see them scoring here. 0-0 is super likely here imo.

#30 l Bosnia - Italy l under 2,5 l 1,96 l 8,31 Euro l SBO
By the time this match is played, Bosnia is probably already out of contention, as Finland is expected to beat Liechtenstein and book their spot in EC. Italy is already qualified and will finish the group in first place. So this match will be more of a friendly one. Italy probably couldn't care less about this match and I am doubting Bosnia will be super motivated after hearing the news from Finland prior to kick-off.

[Assface16678]

Man, I am exactly the same - I NEVER bet on unders for all the reasons you mentioned, I hate it - while I am regularly playing overs (actually 90% of my bets are on overs), I cant remember having placed a bet on an under EVER! 

Good luck to you of course - I will come back regularly and see how it goes.

Playing football is enjoying and also cheering on your favorite team and player in their play. Some of us are not just watching playing football to make some thrill in playing we are betting on the different groups with good odds and make us also some profit and also we are satisfied with watching too. Usually, we want some huge profit by just waging a lot of money or assets but sometimes in the under, because if the odds are 90% above and the under are 10% below, and you bet in under it makes you a more significant profit because on that percentage or odds. Still, sometimes it was not good if you think they cannot win the game; you are playing with a significant risk of loss.

[uray]

Does anyone of you play unders in Football ? I basically never did it and the few times I did, I hated it.  

If there is a game between two teams that have a good defense and a world class goal keeper then you cannot expect many goals, the beauty of the game is different and i am not interested in a one sided goal fest and as a fan i like good matches and the tactics during the match gives me the kick as a fan and most of the times i go under and won a lot and sometimes i lost and it is part and parcel of a sports.

[tyKiwanuka]

#29 l Romania - Sweden l under 2,5 l 1,67 l 8,48 Euro l Dafabet
#30 l Bosnia - Italy l under 2,5 l 1,96 l 8,31 Euro l SBO

Bank: 421,48 Euro
W/L: 10-20
Yield: -30,16%

#31 l Azerbaijan - Wales l under 2,5 l 1,69 l 8,43 Euro l Dafabet
Wales needs the three points badly here. A draw would still keep them alive in this group, but chances to qualify for EC would be next to zero then. Both teams are pretty poor offensively, while Wales at least has an ok-ish defense. Don't see Azerbaijan scoring here today and Wales will probably be happy with defending a 1-0 lead until the final whistle.

#32 l Russia - Belgium l under 2,5 l 2,14 l 8,26 Euro l SBO
These odds are too high for my liking. Both teams already qualified and they have scored a lot against poorish competition in this group. But they also didn't concede a lot - only 5 goals in total. This is a friendly match in the end and I don't see them going all out here in coldish weather.

#33 l Austria - North Macedonia l under 2,5 l 2,43 l 8,10 Euro l Pinnacle
Austria only needs a draw to qualify, while North Macedonia needs all three to keep their hopes, and the hopes of Slovenia and Israel, alive. So Austria won't go all out here and North Macedonia will sit back first too and only open up in the latter stages of this match, giving Austria opportunities for counter attacks. Could get goal-ish at the end, but lets see, odds for under are good.

[Webetcoins]

Does anyone of you play unders in Football ? I basically never did it and the few times I did, I hated it.  

If there is a game between two teams that have a good defense and a world class goal keeper then you cannot expect many goals, the beauty of the game is different and i am not interested in a one sided goal fest and as a fan i like good matches and the tactics during the match gives me the kick as a fan and most of the times i go under and won a lot and sometimes i lost and it is part and parcel of a sports.

Match is only fun as long as both opponents have equal level of skills. Though I enjoy goals but that does not mean simple ones. When a good amount of effort is done, only then the goal becomes a thrilling one. We can expect such output from only few teams like FC Barcelona and Real Madrid. Even La Liga is not as much fun as it used to be in the past years. Still the craze and excitement is there.

[tyKiwanuka]

#31 l Azerbaijan - Wales l under 2,5 l 1,69 l 8,43 Euro l Dafabet
#32 l Russia - Belgium l under 2,5 l 2,14 l 8,26 Euro l SBO
#33 l Austria - North Macedonia l under 2,5 l 2,43 l 8,10 Euro l Pinnacle

A 90+3 goal from North Macedonia made this another losing day.

Bank: 410,94 Euro
W/L: 11-22
Yield: -31,23%

A lot of games, where there is nothing to play for today, so only one under, that I like.

#34 l Luxembourg - Portugal l under 3,5 l 1,87 l 8,22 Euro l Dafabet
Win and in it is for Portugal. Depending on the result of the parallel game between Serbia and Ukraine, a draw or loss might be suffice as well, but Portugal surely won't rely on that. Luxembourg has shown some good progress over the years and are quite competitive nowadays for their standards. Portugal is often playing down to their competition and this Luxembourg team is no walk in the park. First leg ended 3-0 in Portugal. Weather in Luxemburg is rather shitty, so I don't see a lot of goals here. Don't think Luxembourg will score and lets see, if Portugal can score 4 here.

[AniviaBtc]

Oh, man, sorry for your loss. Cup matches are risky to bet in general, not only when we talk about under.
Same like people above, I also rarely bet on under and the main reasons why is already said by you. I bet on it sometimes, but my win % doesn't look good at all. While I bet on overs frequently and I can't complain much about my results.
Wish you better luck in further bets. It will be interesting to follow your progress.

It is natural in betting that you need to accept your damages because nothing is certain when it comes to that. Just accept and move on before that thing makes you mad and stressed. Cup matches are unstable and inconsistent for you to raise your bet at a high level.

Just place your bet on the side with a high percentage of winning. Easy as that, overs are the best option but not always. But they have higher possibilities of winning.

Better luck next time.

[tyKiwanuka]

#34 l Luxembourg - Portugal l under 3,5 l 1,87 l 8,22 Euro l Dafabet

Bank: 418,09 Euro
W/L: 12-22
Yield: -27,92%

Adding another one for today.

#35 l Bulgaria - Czech Republic l under 2,5 l 2,09 l 8,36 l SBO
Czech Republic probably had a huge party after their win over Kosovo and securing qualification. I guess they couldn’t care less about this match. Bulgaria themselves are pretty poor and only managed to score 5 goals in 7 matches. There will be no spectators in Sofia today, which tends to lead to more underish outcomes in general.