Its not easy, its only ever probability and it comes in stages of confirmation. Right now I think we are quite positive going into this weekend and I'll keep that opinion so long as we close above 7400 for this weekly bar.
I base that confidence on the way we are moving between negative trends, its possible for it to reverse but if we do confirm above that previous negative trend then we have reflect that positive sentiment by expecting further gains to occur overall.
So blue line is 2 day average, its held that and it is purely a short term measure of a positive move. Its reasonable to take a trade when we hold that, 7900 is next target and I guess just holding this area is quite positive. Anything from 7600 to 7400 seems where to watch for price acting positively.