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Author Topic: Arbitrage on sportsbetting is possible?  (Read 230 times)
bearexin
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November 05, 2019, 07:08:12 PM
Merited by RealMalatesta (1)
 #1

Honestly, I am not sure the term arbitrage is right to use here. But, I am about to ask:

Will it be profitable if we bet on both the side of a sport but in different gambling house with different odds. Definitely one team will win so that I will get profits which will be covering the losses in another house? Given that I am betting same amount of money on both of the houses.

Let me explain with example:
2 gambling houses : House-A and House-B
2 sport team : Team-1 and Team-2

House-A is showing odd of 3.5 for the betting of, if Team-1 wins.
House-B is showing odd of 4.0 for the betting of, if Team-2 wins.

Now, I bet on Team-1 in House-A and on Team-2 in House-B for the amount of $10 each.

Team-1 wins.

I will lose $10 in House-B but I will get $30+ from House-A.

Now, my balance must have grown from $20 to $30+

Where or what I am missing out here or are you already doing this? Roll Eyes
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barbara44
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November 05, 2019, 07:14:12 PM
 #2

Good imagination Grin.

Do you think will it be that easy to get odds like that? I mean the real catch in your "strategy" must be the odds.

Usually people do predict in a same way (betting on strong team) because they do predict based of past performances. Still, people do go betting on other side (betting on weak side) due to personal reasons like "showing patriotism" or "my favorite player plays there so I want that underdog to win".

If 2 different group of people predict differently BUT again in different houses then you may go for "arbitrage" betting.

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November 05, 2019, 07:23:54 PM
Merited by SyGambler (2)
 #3

It will be very profitable if you do this. The problem is, you won't find these kind of odds Grin Some 15 years ago you could earn good money with just playing surebets, but nowadays this is a pretty hard business.

With more or less centralized odds, the amount of surebets have gone down a lot. And the sure % you can make has also gone down.

Bookmakers don't like surebetters, so the longer you do this, the more problems will arise, e.g. bookmakers closing your account or limiting you to ridiculous low limits. And since most surebets are found between the non-asian bookmakers, you are in dire need of accounts with these bookmakers.

There is also some risk involved of losing most of your bank even though this way of betting is considered to be "sure". That is when either one bookmaker decides to void your bet out of the blue or when you bet on sports where there are different rules for the sports. For example in Tennis, if a player retires, one bookmaker might void your (winning) bet, while with the other bookmaker your bet stands and you lose your stake there.

There are lots of websites with surebets, if you google for it, here is one example: https://www.oddsportal.com/sure-bets/

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November 05, 2019, 09:19:51 PM
 #4

There's a few sports bettors here who did this way of betting before, they even had their own thread to share the bets with everyone but it didn't last that long because like what the guys above said it's difficult to look for both odds that are guaranteed to profit. Also I agree with tyKi said, some sportsbook doesn't welcome gamblers who does this bets I remember there was a new sportsbook that had good odds than most sportsbook and someone used their odds to make an arbitrage bet and his account was limited.

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November 05, 2019, 10:22:13 PM
 #5

Where or what I am missing out here or are you already doing this? Roll Eyes

You don't miss anything if it will happen in reality.

You can't find such odds today between sportsbook to sportsbook.

But the door is always open for you to test it. Come back here and see what will be the result. Smiley

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November 06, 2019, 02:31:39 AM
 #6

There's a few sports bettors here who did this way of betting before, they even had their own thread to share the bets with everyone but it didn't last that long because like what the guys above said it's difficult to look for both odds that are guaranteed to profit. Also I agree with tyKi said, some sportsbook doesn't welcome gamblers who does this bets I remember there was a new sportsbook that had good odds than most sportsbook and someone used their odds to make an arbitrage bet and his account was limited.

Yeah I recall DarkStar_ coming up with something like that and I admit it was not much profitable but free money is money so can't complain that.

However I do have a question, regarding sportsbook not welcoming such bets- what if we are betting on on the selections on different sportsbook? I think that will be allowed right?

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November 06, 2019, 03:23:53 AM
 #7

It's pretty imaginitive to evem hope for these kinds of odds tbh. Dude, just look at various events happening in bettings and you'd see that such odds never happen, even across betting platforms. Plus, the losing sports betting site would surely go bankrupt if ever it continues such progress of setting odds. Its like your asking gambling sites to let everyone profit, which is not gonna happen. Its each man for their own here.

 
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November 06, 2019, 04:58:06 AM
 #8

House-A is showing odd of 3.5 for the betting of, if Team-1 wins.
House-B is showing odd of 4.0 for the betting of, if Team-2 wins.

Good luck with those odds. More accurate might be 1.99 and 2.03, for a solid 0.49% profit. It's possible, but expecting to make more than maybe 2% best case is completely unrealistic today. 300% will give you a voided bet because clearly one side has a price error and leave you with one side of the "arbitrage" uncovered.

However I do have a question, regarding sportsbook not welcoming such bets- what if we are betting on on the selections on different sportsbook? I think that will be allowed right?

They'll still ban/limit you eventually if it's the type of the book to do so. Your bets will usually always have value and show that you are a consistent winner, and soft books don't want those players.

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November 06, 2019, 06:48:31 AM
 #9

I think that this topic is not discussed as much as it should in a gamblers circle like this zone of the forum.Arbitrage in sport betting is possible but only if you do it with some friends and you talk all day with each other through social media which is easy nowadays.After all of you doing research on which game has different odds in different bookmakers you start playing each one placing a bet in a different bookmaker.

Like that African proverb says,if you want to go fast go alone but if you want to go far go together.

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November 06, 2019, 08:02:03 AM
 #10

It is completely possible op, but there are risks involved as @tyKiwanuka mentioned. If you wish to reduce risks, you need to bet one half on Pinnacle and the other half on a soft-book.

It's possible, but expecting to make more than maybe 2% best case is completely unrealistic today. 300% will give you a voided bet because clearly one side has a price error and leave you with one side of the "arbitrage" uncovered.
Have to disagree with the 2% unrealistic part since it is possible to find 2-3% regularly these days through sites like Bitedge etc.

Almost 3% right here : https://bitedge.com/sports-betting-tools-and-resources/crypto-betting-edge-alerts/

Apart from that, I agree with everything else.

 
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November 06, 2019, 08:36:45 AM
 #11

Honestly, I am not sure the term arbitrage is right to use here. But, I am about to ask:

Will it be profitable if we bet on both the side of a sport but in different gambling house with different odds. Definitely one team will win so that I will get profits which will be covering the losses in another house? Given that I am betting same amount of money on both of the houses.

Let me explain with example:
2 gambling houses : House-A and House-B
2 sport team : Team-1 and Team-2

House-A is showing odd of 3.5 for the betting of, if Team-1 wins.
House-B is showing odd of 4.0 for the betting of, if Team-2 wins.

Now, I bet on Team-1 in House-A and on Team-2 in House-B for the amount of $10 each.

Team-1 wins.

I will lose $10 in House-B but I will get $30+ from House-A.

Now, my balance must have grown from $20 to $30+

Where or what I am missing out here or are you already doing this? Roll Eyes


Two-odds are technically possible. But what big money can you play with? The difference will be minimal. So, I think you can earn very small amount of money with this way.

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November 07, 2019, 12:54:19 AM
Merited by SyGambler (2)
 #12

It's possible, but expecting to make more than maybe 2% best case is completely unrealistic today. 300% will give you a voided bet because clearly one side has a price error and leave you with one side of the "arbitrage" uncovered.
Have to disagree with the 2% unrealistic part since it is possible to find 2-3% regularly these days through sites like Bitedge etc.

Almost 3% right here : https://bitedge.com/sports-betting-tools-and-resources/crypto-betting-edge-alerts/

Apart from that, I agree with everything else.

Have you tried playing a Bitedge arb? From what I've seen, it either relies on 1xbit (scam) or has incorrect odds (or maybe they shifted extremely quickly) around 99% of the time. That one involves Sportsbet too, so expect to be limited for all future bets pretty much on their book if you play that arb. I guess 2% is a bit low but more realistic given how few Bitcoin books there are. With fiat books, I've heard up to 5%.

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November 07, 2019, 06:48:20 AM
 #13

Will it be profitable if we bet on both the side of a sport but in different gambling house with different odds.



Books never post flipped lines unless a typo or error is made. Bets made under those circumstances are null and void. The best method to arbitrage sports betting imo is via utilizing multi team parlays.



The 8.465 parlay on the top needed Demetrious Johnson to finish.

The 38.168 parlay on the bottom needed Henry Cejudo. Demetrious Johnson's opponent.

Its not necessarily feasible to hit these long odds consistently but the 38x parlay on the bottom did hit. Hedging with parlays can also be successful in terms of ARB. Chasing odds across different sportsbooks isn't a cost effective use of time, in my opinion. It takes less than 30 consecutive winning bets at even odds to compound interest $0.01 into more than a million dollars. Profit potential of sports betting is extremely high. Odds will usually not be the biggest bottleneck in regards to earning potential. Accuracy and consistency are the biggest obstacles and the area where most will see the biggest benefits in terms of time and effort based investment.

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November 07, 2019, 07:14:30 AM
 #14

The best method to arbitrage sports betting imo is via utilizing multi team parlays.
This basically reduces the risk associated with parlays to a small degree, but does not nullify it completely like arbing which is why this is not the best method. It is only effective during the final round of a parlay where you can hedge to acquire guaranteed profits.

It takes less than 30 consecutive winning bets at even odds to compound interest $0.01 into more than a million dollars.
You need to be one of the best punters in the world to be able to guess 20-25 even odds correctly without any errors in order to turn 1 cent into a million. Unrealistic. This is why parlays always favor the house though I enjoy placing them for fun.

 
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November 07, 2019, 08:40:57 AM
 #15


Have to disagree with the 2% unrealistic part since it is possible to find 2-3% regularly these days through sites like Bitedge etc.

Almost 3% right here : https://bitedge.com/sports-betting-tools-and-resources/crypto-betting-edge-alerts/

Apart from that, I agree with everything else.

bit-edge arbs are mostly inaccurate in my experience , I have been really following their alerts for several months and managed to get only one real arb with 0.8% ROI as I remember

and Darkstar has a valid point with 1xbit , I tried 1xbit in the past and you don't even need arbitrage to profit with them cause they have tons of value lines and you can find them by  comparing the lines with pinnacle
they have tons of arbs that bitedge doesn't post , but what's the point since you will get scammed at the end ?

they closed my account with a little bit over 0.1 BTC stuck , I was able to withdraw more actually in the past so I didn't really lose money with them but they can close your account anytime

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November 07, 2019, 08:47:27 AM
 #16

Arbitrage is possible but this is very hard to do.

It's like you are gambling without any risk, you are just finding a line that you can take advantage that ensures you profit regardless of the result of your bet. It's actually one of the most interesting topic that I want to learn when I was new in sports betting, but this kind of betting requires time and effort and you need to build a working system that will monitor different sportsbook so you can spot the difference, I just believe its possible but I don't think its doable by most gamblers who like to try.

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November 07, 2019, 09:34:05 AM
 #17

I opened a topic some time ago that tackled surebets, but with Betfair trading and some strategy which a guy was claiming to have developed (or just taking advantage of some bug in the markets): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5195284

You can still do some kind of arbritage between Betfair and Orbit (and all those other Betfair powered exchanges), but it's risky, if your Orbit account gets closed as you will have all the money there and lose with Betfair.

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November 07, 2019, 10:10:04 AM
 #18

Darkstar has a valid point with 1xbit , I tried 1xbit in the past and you don't even need arbitrage to profit with them cause they have tons of value lines and you can find them by  comparing the lines with pinnacle
they have tons of arbs that bitedge doesn't post , but what's the point since you will get scammed at the end ?
I never use 1xbit for betting. I have used Bitedge alerts successfully for arbing between sites like Betbtc and Sportsbet. Also, I stated Bitedge as an example. It is possible to find 2-3% arbing opportunities through sites like Surebet, Betburger etc.

You can still do some kind of arbritage between Betfair and Orbit (and all those other Betfair powered exchanges), but it's risky, if your Orbit account gets closed as you will have all the money there and lose with Betfair.
Arbitrage between exchanges? Possible, but the opportunities are very limited for obvious reasons. Softs and sharp bookie arbing is always the better option which comes with its own risks.

 
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November 07, 2019, 10:46:19 AM
 #19

You can still do some kind of arbritage between Betfair and Orbit (and all those other Betfair powered exchanges), but it's risky, if your Orbit account gets closed as you will have all the money there and lose with Betfair.
Arbitrage between exchanges? Possible, but the opportunities are very limited for obvious reasons. Softs and sharp bookie arbing is always the better option which comes with its own risks.

On the contrary, the possibilities are endless. If you were out to do harm on Orbit and the likes and they would pay you without a doubt, you can get them broke in a heartbeat. In reality this only works to a certain extent and is highly risky - you can accumulate huge winnings in your Orbit account without any sweat, but they won't pay out your winnings most likely.

Take a dive into their business model and you will see. There were even better possibilities with the first Betfair mirrored exchanges that appeared some years ago. They were greedy af (and a bit stupid too), so they were broke pretty soon and had to shut down as soon as some sharps exploited them and their greed.

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November 07, 2019, 08:52:42 PM
 #20

#1 This basically reduces the risk associated with parlays to a small degree, but does not nullify it completely like arbing which is why this is not the best method. It is only effective during the final round of a parlay where you can hedge to acquire guaranteed profits.

#2 You need to be one of the best punters in the world to be able to guess 20-25 even odds correctly without any errors in order to turn 1 cent into a million. Unrealistic. This is why parlays always favor the house though I enjoy placing them for fun.


#1  Keep in mind this isn't theoretical vaporware strategy I'm discussing. Its something I actively utilize that has been effective. Arbitrage is a very protectionist strategy in algorithmic trading. Its effective mainly under a predefined set of circumstances, which one is not likely to find outside of HFT/dark pools. The most reliable ARB strategy for crypto was cross platform ARB where bitcoin would be bought on exchanges and sold on african exchanges where its price was 20% or higher.

For sports betting, props are another common method of attempting ARB. Its easy to get greater than +100 odds on both sides of a match utilizing props.

#2  In the latter half of 2018, I had a winning stretch where I went something like 25-3. Difficulty level is much higher in 2019. Its not that hard to hit 20 or more consistent wins. What's difficult is scaling back the frequency of bets, to a point where you're betting exclusively on plays you're 99.9% certain will win. This could mean making only 1 bet per month or less, having to restrain yourself, which not everyone has the self control or discipline to do.



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