US stock market's annual return is going to be 3~5% p.a. over the next 10 years

[buwaytress]

Just remember, that we will have US stock market bubble burst in the next few years, starting a global recession.

This is guaranteed - after WW2, we have a recession every 7-10 years - the last one finished right before BTC came to existence.

So then even if you will see 3-5% ROI on stocks, be aware that you might lose 50% first.

Yeah and I've heard of people countering this by saying be aware you could lose 95% on Bitcoin first before seeing any gains. They're right of course, and people should be aware in Bitcoin that pullbacks are severe, far more than any other asset they've experienced. This shock is what jolts people out of it.

Worse still if they go into an asset that isn't Bitcoin. The majority are in those 90%+ pullbacks and haven't recovered. At least Bitcoin went -85% but is now at -55%!

[electronicash]

Direct quote ""Economists at investing giant Vanguard predict over the next 10 years annual U.S. stock market returns will likely average 3% to 5%""

The problem is: Are economists trustworthy or they are just trying to shill you their US stock?

And,

Can crypto beat the annual return of general stock market?

What's your prediction on crypto-economy?

almost sure the news are just shilling for the US stocks. all of them from penny stock companies, the industrial companies of dowjones, NYSE to nasdaq and government officials are all being manipulated by media releases every week all to inflate prices and people who kept reading the index every weekend believe all while the company owners are shorting it to them.

the future is crypto. the companies in stocks and bonds may probably shift to blockchain so one day we'll see those companies in cryptoexchanges.

[hello_good_sir]

3-3.5% isn't that good, and I'm not really sure if those numbers are that accurate. Most advanced economies like the US & China have already slowed down in economic growth and I'm not sure how their companies will be able to increase their share prices if the outlook for everything is fairly bleak. The big money is in developing countries now, those ones have a lot of room to grow and look huge.

Crypto is definitely going to be a lot bigger than just 3%, but it could also go to shit, so I wouldn't really compare the 2, not really fair.

See the problem now with Bitcoin and crypto? It's made everyone just think in wholly unrealistic settings. 3% annual return on stocks is a really, really good thing, compounded that's easily over 40% in a decade. In the US that easily overcomes the inflation for US dollar.

Okay, I definitely see your point here, a free 3-3.5% interest for a relatively low-risk investment per year is definitely great for a lot of fiat investments, although with bitcoin often doubling/tripling your money if you're playing your cards right, it's pretty hard to pass up.

I reckon the biggest issue at fault here, is the natural inflation rates that every country goes through per year, which is usually around 2-3%, a lot of people don't end up realizing, but oftentimes, putting your money in a savings account actually loses you money since those rates are lower than inflation, and when your looking at this entire system, you realize, unless your profits are over 2.5% a year, you are likely losing money.

And that is why me and a lot of other people deviate towards crypto-currencies.

[Hydrogen]

Think of all the economists and media personalities predicting catastrohic recession atm.

Then look at the following chart detailing stock performance before, during and after recessions.



My conclusion is the official narrative being hijacked for political, profiteering or assorted motives, as has become common in this era. History suggests real recessions lasting longer than 12 months, and stock market growth, usually do not occur simultaneously. The recession prediction or the stock growth prediction may be inaccurate.

I think they want investors to buy US stocks to suit their own agenda. The prediction is wholly unrelated to actual projected future stock market performance.

[aardvark15]

Direct quote ""Economists at investing giant Vanguard predict over the next 10 years annual U.S. stock market returns will likely average 3% to 5%""

The problem is: Are economists trustworthy or they are just trying to shill you their US stock?

And,

Can crypto beat the annual return of general stock market?

What's your prediction on crypto-economy?

That stock market growth is very low especially considering inflation. Bitcoin and major altcoins should far exceed that because they are deflationary.

[goaldigger]

Direct quote ""Economists at investing giant Vanguard predict over the next 10 years annual U.S. stock market returns will likely average 3% to 5%""

The problem is: Are economists trustworthy or they are just trying to shill you their US stock?

And,

Can crypto beat the annual return of general stock market?

What's your prediction on crypto-economy?

Its pretty low rate to grow your money but of course it is more safe compare to crypto. Cryptomarket can make your money double in just a month, and the average i think is that above 20% or more especially with good coins. Economist wants to boost the market of US to prevent any crisis again, but since people are more educated nowadays, stocks is a slow way of making money but still reliable.

[alyssa85]

Direct quote ""Economists at investing giant Vanguard predict over the next 10 years annual U.S. stock market returns will likely average 3% to 5%""

The problem is: Are economists trustworthy or they are just trying to shill you their US stock?

And,

Can crypto beat the annual return of general stock market?

What's your prediction on crypto-economy?

They're just projecting from the present into the future.

The reality is that the bull market is now old and tired and just needs a shock to bring it down. Or just needs enough people just cashing out for their retirement to start a selling spree.

[ChrisPop]

The problem with all these predictions is that they don't account for inflation. The US dollar inflation is rougly around 1.50%/year that means that 3-5%/year return will be around 1-2%. Most people think that stocks tend to raise over time in value, but is that true? I would say no.. most people look at the S&P 500 which is an index that is ever changing. They are switching stocks, not keeping those forever. Then where do you put the inflation? This is not financial advice and should not be interpreted in that way but in my opinion Bitcoin is a much better play.

[alexsandria]

Direct quote ""Economists at investing giant Vanguard predict over the next 10 years annual U.S. stock market returns will likely average 3% to 5%""

Predictions once again. Still unsure with this though if it became real then US stock market were good to put the invest with.

The problem is: Are economists trustworthy or they are just trying to shill you their US stock?

Depending on who claim such idealism. Though big names are not trustworthy as well. Sometimes they made silly predictions.

Can crypto beat the annual return of general stock market?

What's your prediction on crypto-economy?

They already did specially way back in december 2017. Well if you have alts to hodl back then and sell it during such heavenly situation you have already beaten up stock market annual return. In addition, there is an incoming halving in mid 2020, thus, we might experience again an outbreak in the market.

[South Park]

Direct quote ""Economists at investing giant Vanguard predict over the next 10 years annual U.S. stock market returns will likely average 3% to 5%""

The problem is: Are economists trustworthy or they are just trying to shill you their US stock?

And,

Can crypto beat the annual return of general stock market?

What's your prediction on crypto-economy?

They're just projecting from the present into the future.

The reality is that the bull market is now old and tired and just needs a shock to bring it down. Or just needs enough people just cashing out for their retirement to start a selling spree.

This is probably the right answer, those kind of models most of the time assume a linear kind of growth for stocks and we know stocks do not move like that, what this probably indicates is that the bull run of stocks is most likely over and we are about to see a crash in that market during the next years, this will make the price of most of stocks to be undervalued and while a great deal of investors are going to lose money this will create an opportunity for those with cash reserves to take advantage of it and buy many great stocks at good prices.

[ntsdm1]

Direct quote ""Economists at investing giant Vanguard predict over the next 10 years annual U.S. stock market returns will likely average 3% to 5%""

The problem is: Are economists trustworthy or they are just trying to shill you their US stock?

And,

Can crypto beat the annual return of general stock market?

What's your prediction on crypto-economy?

To be honest, I don’t know what capitalization of the US stock market is. Therefore, I simply have nothing to compare with.But the topic is very relevant.Indeed, many Americans in order to reduce the payment of taxes spend in the second half of December a lot of money to buy shares.

[magneto]

Why is this even worth talking about? I don't get it.

3-5% seems like a fair amount to put the average growth at, given the fact that over the very long run, this seems to be some sort of equilibrium rate of return on equities anyhow. It can actually be quite a pessimistic outlook given that we can see stock markets rise in double digits in years with strong economic growth.

Whether this is accurate or not is could be up to debate, but it's certainly not an attempt to "shill" anything.