6 Months of Fundamental Opportunities in Bitcoin!!!

[cocoadreamboy]

I make crypto fundamental analysis to identify the speculation in crypto. This is the past 6 months of data with the long and short opportunities. The speculation is easy to see in crypto when you know the creation cost.

My website:

https://www.amsinger.org/

I want more people to use my analysis and understand crypto better and better!

Aaron

Let me know if you have any questions!

Edit:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.new#new

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[Hamphser]

Just so you know we already have users who do some speculation and fundamental analysis here for free. We even share to each other here our own analysis so there's no need to pay for someone over the internet. You are free to join them if you have to and you can find them on this board discussing every matters that would matter obviously.

[cocoadreamboy]

I did post it for free. I have yet to see any true fundamental analysis on this page. Please post any links you have

There is much faulty “technical analysis”.

[exstasie]

Let me know if you have any questions!

Where does your "creation cost" data come from? You realize miners around the world have differing overhead and electricity costs, right? How do we know your data isn't just curve-fitting to make it look useful?

[cocoadreamboy]

Let me know if you have any questions!

Where does your "creation cost" data come from? You realize miners around the world have differing overhead and electricity costs, right? How do we know your data isn't just curve-fitting to make it look useful?

My algo takes the most efficient machine costs ties it with a standard .05kwh price (this includes lease and labor costs as well), and identifies the wholesale cost per coin.

There is an efficiency upgrade that went into effect May 23. So there is no “curve-fitting”

It is how the business side of crypto works.

There is no other way to identify when bitcoin is actually low priced or high priced.

I’ve spent 2 years developing and perfecting this. I want people to benefit from my work. These markets are extremely inefficient, and there is a lot of money to be made by understanding them clearly.

Aaron

Long time no see man. I hope you’ve been well.

[exstasie]

Where does your "creation cost" data come from? You realize miners around the world have differing overhead and electricity costs, right? How do we know your data isn't just curve-fitting to make it look useful?

My algo takes the most efficient machine costs ties it with a standard .05kwh price (this includes lease and labor costs as well), and identifies the wholesale cost per coin.

So you're assuming every miner in the world has the same rental, labor, and other overhead costs? The same electricity costs? Upgrades to the most efficient ASICs on the same timelines?

That's seems way too oversimplified.

There is an efficiency upgrade that went into effect May 23. So there is no “curve-fitting”

I wasn't referring to that specifically. It's the whole premise. You can (and presumably did) keep tweaking your "creation cost" parameters until it intersected with price before a major reversal. You're making oversimplified assumptions and fudging the data to confirm your theory. I really doubt your system can reproduce those results at the next cycle bottom.

I think there is some truth to your theory in general but there are way too many unknowns to make a reliable trading strategy from it.

[cocoadreamboy]

I wasn't referring to that specifically. It's the whole premise. You can (and presumably did) keep tweaking your "creation cost" parameters until it intersected with price before a major reversal. You're making oversimplified assumptions and fudging the data to confirm your theory. I really doubt your system can reproduce those results at the next cycle bottom.

I think there is some truth to your theory in general but there are way too many unknowns to make a reliable trading strategy from it.

This is meant to be a tool for trading. In the same way as earnings reports and P/E ratios are to stocks, this is crypto financials. When stock trading very few pros do not look at earnings and revenue when analyzing a stock.

It’s not everything, but my analysis reviews the fundamental trends of crypto business. Without it there is no way to know the true speculation levels. I don’t want people to buy 13k bitcoin blindly. I want people to feel comfortable buying a creation cost supported bitcoin as it was in February and April.

I made this to help people make the right choices, intelligently.

It is a necessary compliment to any trading strategy

Aaron

[cocoadreamboy]

There is no need to over complicate crypto or trading. Sometimes things are much more simple than they appear

[cocoadreamboy]

I have posted a link to my most recent complete crypto analysis here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.msg52985166#msg52985166

Please check it out. It is my offering to bitcointalk. This forum is amazing, and it does a lot of good.

I want everyone to benefit from my work.

Aaron

[fillippone]

I strongly doubt when you say

I want everyone to benefit from my work.

Firstly you are making your analysis paid, so it’s not everyone, but only “the ones who pays”. That’s legitimate, but different.
Secondly, even assuming you found the magical recipe for successful trading, then trading is not a zero sum game. When I find something that really works, I don’t want to share my statistical hedge over the market with anyone. Sharing your secret means less profit.

[cocoadreamboy]

[quote author=fillippone link=topic=5199245.msg53004242#msg53004242 date=1573070351

Firstly you are making your analysis paid, so it’s not everyone, but only “the ones who pays”. That’s legitimate, but different.
Secondly, even assuming you found the magical recipe for successful trading, then trading is not a zero sum game. When I find something that really works, I don’t want to share my statistical hedge over the market with anyone. Sharing your secret means less profit.


[/quote]

If I owned a hedge fund that would be correct, but I am a human being man... I’m not a selfish person. It’s not magical. It is simply crypto financials.

A professional decides what analysis to take into account. I don’t understand your anger or position.

[Gyrsur]

you missed the train, right? but your prices are too high, IMHO.  

EDIT: maybe you will consider my advise. learn about Bitcoin. spend time here with posting useful stuff or help Newbies to answer their questions. and after some time try to join a signature campaign and earn some sats over time. you seem very young to me and therefore i guess time will work in favor for you with Bitcoin.

[fillippone]

A professional decides what analysis to take into account. I don’t understand your anger or position.

Ah!
No anger at all.
Don’t worry, I am not casting judgements, and if I were doing that, you could legimately ignore those.
But if you are selling services you are doing for profit, not for the love of the forum.
No problem with profit.
A little problems with hypocrisy.

[th3nolo]

If I owned a hedge fund that would be correct, but I am a human being man... I’m not a selfish person. It’s not magical. It is simply crypto financials.
A professional decides what analysis to take into account. I don’t understand your anger or position.

I think it's because you use the same narrative of many people who say they want to help others, but what they want is money.
If you are not selfish, why not allow a free trial of your service.

[cocoadreamboy]

you missed the train, right? but your prices are too high, IMHO.  

EDIT: maybe you will consider my advise. learn about Bitcoin. spend time here with posting useful stuff or help Newbies to answer their questions. and after some time try to join a signature campaign and earn some sats over time. you seem very young to me and therefore i guess time will work in favor of you with Bitcoin.

Lol i spent all my crypto profits for 2 years developing these analytics lol I was screaming at my neighbors during February to buy btc.

I know my prices are a bit high, but it is a professional service and subscribers will need to know that only people that pay will get the continual view of them.

I am the proverbial broke artist now, but if I had anything I would be buying litecoin by the buckets dca in of course

[Gyrsur]

you missed the train, right? but your prices are too high, IMHO.  

EDIT: maybe you will consider my advise. learn about Bitcoin. spend time here with posting useful stuff or help Newbies to answer their questions. and after some time try to join a signature campaign and earn some sats over time. you seem very young to me and therefore i guess time will work in favor of you with Bitcoin.

Lol i spent all my crypto profits for 2 years developing these analytics lol I was screaming at my neighbors during February to buy btc.

I know my prices are a bit high, but it is a professional service and subscribers will need to know that only people that pay will get the continual view of them.

I am the proverbial broke artist now, but if I had anything I would be buying litecoin by the buckets dca in of course

you are a liar on cocaine. get down to earth, homie. 

[cocoadreamboy]

Ah!
No anger at all.
Don’t worry, I am not casting judgements, and if I were doing that, you could legimately ignore those.
But if you are selling services you are doing for profit, not for the love of the forum.
No problem with profit.
A little problems with hypocrisy.

Businesses must make profit, and I’m sick of eating rice lol

You can catch up to my current analysis for free here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.msg52985166#msg52985166

I put it up for free because I do love this forum. I also put up a lot of topics about how you shouldn’t buy bitcoin at 13k in late June also.

I don’t want people to get screwed, but I have to protect the interests of my clients as well. Life is balance.

Aaron

[cocoadreamboy]

I think it's because you use the same narrative of many people who say they want to help others, but what they want is money.
If you are not selfish, why not allow a free trial of your service.

You can see my analysis for free here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.msg52985166#msg52985166

Plus there is a discount for bitcointalk peeps.

Happy to help,

Aaron

[Gyrsur]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5174101

this is your second attempt to sell something to the people?

next time you try to sell your grandma too? 

[Gyrsur]

Ah!
No anger at all.
Don’t worry, I am not casting judgements, and if I were doing that, you could legimately ignore those.
But if you are selling services you are doing for profit, not for the love of the forum.
No problem with profit.
A little problems with hypocrisy.

Businesses must make profit, and I’m sick of eating rice lol

You can catch up to my current analysis for free here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.msg52985166#msg52985166

I put it up for free because I do love this forum. I also put up a lot of topics about how you shouldn’t buy bitcoin at 13k in late June also.

I don’t want people to get screwed, but I have to protect the interests of my clients as well. Life is balance.

Aaron

LOL, you try to collect email addresses and sell them later to advertisers.