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Author Topic: Scarcity is one of the leading factors of Bitcoins value  (Read 724 times)
Wintersoldier
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November 07, 2019, 03:15:44 PM
 #21

It is indeed a factor. The impression that it sends to people is that it is not unlimited and that after years and decades the total supply will remain the same.
Actually, for me, bitcoin being limited letting me think that once there are many people accumulated it. It's the market price will boost way up high as the demand for it increases too much. Though, the next reason for this increase in market price is already stated,

here:
In addition to the limited total supply of Bitcoin is the fact that a significant chunk of it is already lost or forgotten beyond recovery, and that the mining reward is also reduced into half every four years. Scarcity is obviously playing a vital role in the rise of Bitcoin's price value.

It is a clear fact to everyone that there are reasons to trust the market so investments have a huge chance of succeeding if we did not let this great opportunity pass. Thus, scarcity is actually is the main factor to consider bitcoin's market value in the future. Refer to this link for more information regarding bitcoin's volume: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoins-are-there/
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November 07, 2019, 05:42:03 PM
 #22


markets do not change in relation to scarcity (21m) as that 21m number has been a factor for 10 years and has never changed and yet in 2009 when only 2mill were available the price was low. and now with 18m available the price is high.. which is an obvious counter indicator to scarcity

however the 'availability' (supply/demand) of just the custodian hoards of exchanges (1.2m right now of coins on exchanges) affect the price more
aswell as the decision to buy or to mine depending on the cost to mine 1btc vs the price to buy 1btc sways people to do one or the other to a varying degree.

scarcity of 21m is not a point again for emphasis 21m has ben a fixed number all along
its population demand for it (adoption desire) and market availability(market custodial hoards 1.2m NOT the 18m circulation)

You explained it well @franky1 though I also agree with OP's statement, what I meant is that Bitcoin's scarcity has pushed people to be interested on this space which may lead to increase demand for Bitcoin and grow its value. You were right about "markets do not change in relation to scarcity" but we could say that this is just like a stepping stone to drive its demand.

 
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November 08, 2019, 12:00:42 AM
 #23

We're going into that way somehow.
Now that scarcity isn't in the high level, we could expect that many people would try to get some part of Bitcoin and save to the last Bitcoin to be mined. We all know that it won't easily to reach that level, it possibly many years to come, maybe we are died already.
If we look into that scenario, we never expect that prices may still at below $10k, $20k , or $50k...It more than that to see. I don't know if people would still take the risk.
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November 08, 2019, 02:15:34 AM
 #24

This is why many people like and trust bitcoin as a financial solution in the future. Because of bitcoin limited supply and halving
happens every 4 years. This is the reason bitcoin becomes scarcity, but with that the value is getting higher because the supply
is limited but the demand continues to increase. It is different from the continuous fiat work printed every year, making inflation
so great. So from many experts argue the scarcity leading factor of bitcoin value, whose ideas have been implemented from the
start. With so many bitcoins predict bitcoin will rise and return to the price of another $ 20,000.


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November 08, 2019, 08:11:19 AM
 #25

in my opinion limiting the number of bitcoins to only 21 million coins is an effective way to make bitcoin value more expensive in the future. because the amount of bitcoin that is mined every year will be less. and also with this scarcity, bitcoin will never experience inflation. so bitcoin will become a valuable item. so I think this satoshi is the most genius person in this century because it can create bitcoin with all its advantages.

 
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November 08, 2019, 11:12:25 AM
 #26

Yes if smallest unit of bitcoin is one bitcoin but that not really true since 1 bitcoin can be further divided into 100,000,000 sats so what if we convert 21,000,000 bitcoins into sats then it will be 2,100,000,000,000,000 sats which is more than enough even if everyone using bitcoin as their only currency for every payment they make so less number of bitcoin units is not the only reason for price to be hiked.

....
4. if there were 2,100,000,000,000,000 units. and someone buggd the code an 'destroyed' it down to just 2100 nits. demand would rise


Wrong assumption. If someone bugged the code in whatever way that changes supply, demand would fall.

Quote

5. if core devs STUPIDLY!! implemented 'millisats' (1000x unit supply(btc with 12 decimals)) demand would fall


Wrong again. How can Core "implement"? Core makes makes the code, but who puts it into effect? Core?

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November 08, 2019, 11:49:27 AM
 #27

It's true that when the supply is limited then the demand for any product will increase for sure. so that Bitcoin is getting a demandable factor in these days, I think not only the scarcity but also the profit-generating issue is another reason for increasing the demand for this Bitcoin these days, but Bitcoin helving may not bring always a good impact on this system because people are getting afraid sometimes about the Bitcoin helving, sometimes it makes us happy but most of the time people are really confused about the happening in terms of the price of Bitcoin. but if a regulation process would be set up in this system then this volatility might be reduced.

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November 08, 2019, 06:00:15 PM
Last edit: November 09, 2019, 07:56:12 AM by teosanru
 #28

Scarcity has been a major price riser for most of the commodities around such as gold, silver but these were actually having some other qualities such as their lusture and their ability to be used as ornaments. They have been used as ornaments for more than 1000 years. Bitcoin actually on the other hand is nothing but a piece of code. It's utility is in processing payments swiftly around any corner of the world along with pretty much anonymity. Now if value of bitcoin is merely increased due to scarcity then it won't go much far. People have to adopt it as their currency and only then you can see certain increase in the value of bitcoin. Scarcity won't be a leading factor of Bitcoin Value for very long.

However, Even though I have the opinion I stated above. People have made proper analysis and thesis on how Price can be elastic due to scarcity and flow.
Fillipone here gave a very nice analysis on Bitcoin Stock to Flow: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5191012.0 which was based on this Analysis by PlanB https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

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November 09, 2019, 05:45:39 PM
 #29

If half of all BTC is lost than prices will be cut in half. If you hold 1 BTC you will be able to buy twice as much with it but no new money was created. basically the guy who lost it or died, gave everyone holding Bitcoin a tiny bit of his wealth. If he had 1 million dollars in BTC and dies without giving out his private keys, that 1 million dollars is divided among all holders of BTC as a percentage of total supply they own.

So the price of Bitcoin should rise as there are fewer of them. If the market value of all circulating Bitcoin is constant taking money out of circulation will raise the value of what is left, until the overall value of the market is the same. However, The only thing missing is the psychology. Right now the majority of the world's population believe gold has value and they trust that it will maintain it. each year more people realize that with Bitcoin but this is not going to happen overnight or even in a year or probably even a decade.
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November 09, 2019, 06:04:22 PM
 #30

scarcity is indeed one of the leading factors of bitcoin value
but you do not see people queing to buy some rare but useless shitcoins , it is all about a combination of factors
bitcoin has a limited supply and a deflationary mechanism inbuilt in it , this all leads to every coin to increase in value as the time passes by
this is due to the fact that less and less "new" coins are mined and the old ones  slowly decrease in numbers
people lose their keys and access to their wallets , forget their passwords etc.
some experts think that 20% of the total supply of bitcoins is lost already , many of the addresses with copious amounts of bitcoins on them are dormant
lets hope that the status quo stays and we see no sudden dumping of the huge stashes that haven't been moved since 2010-2011
not even talking about the 1 mil coins that belong to Satoshi , even if  100.000 coins are sold in one day it could crash the price completely

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November 12, 2019, 11:21:22 AM
 #31

21 million cap in my opinion is not about scarcity and price but instead it is more about having a clear maximum supply and a clear predefined plan for distribution of that supply. this design was specifically chosen to fix the problem with fiat system where there is absolutely no cap and no predefined plan of supply creation. the government can print as much money as they like and that causes inflation among a lot of other economical issues.

as a side product of that, we get the scarcity and with a limited supply and an increasing demand we get the rising price. of course it should not be forgotten that the demand is an important part of that rise otherwise we have altcoins with much smaller supply that are not only worth less than bitcoin but they are losing value as time goes by even though they are supposedly scarce too.

This is also pretty much why it takes so much mining power to solve the algorithms. The distribution is split so many times due to all the miner in more of a fairway then fiat ever was. Fiat is not released t the public in exchange for any sort of proof of work but rather printed out as you said indefinitely as much as they see fit and who knows how often they do it behind closed doors. This is why crypto rules since you cannot hide such activity (not that you can print out bitcoin) due to the nature of the transparency of the blockchain.

Bitcoin you are told the rules upfront. You know what to expect and you know the supply. hell you even know the supply rate and how many transactions and movement is going on whenever you wish, no wonder the government doesn't want crypto ^^ They know they can no longer hide their corrupt financial dealings.

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November 14, 2019, 04:24:00 PM
 #32

That has always been the main thing, bitcoin being scarce is one of the things that makes it valuable. If you check the two things that determine value in the economy, it is scarcity and utility and bitcoin has these two. That's the main things that are making bitcoin to be more desirable than other assets like gold.
 
As for the utility, just like some experts will always say, it has the potential to be a more efficient commodity. Another good reason people should like bitcoin is that it is decentralized, though I know that has its own downsides as well, being decentralized means that bitcoin cannot be tumbled by corruption.
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November 14, 2019, 04:52:08 PM
 #33

I believe that there may be a correlation between the halvening and the price bubbles that seem to happen every 4 years. As the mining reward drops, Bitcoins are more scare and it leads to a price increase that eventually rises exponentially until the bubble pops.
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November 14, 2019, 05:14:34 PM
 #34

Wrong again. How can Core "implement"? Core makes makes the code, but who puts it into effect? Core?

core already implemented many things.
have you not realised that core regulated other dev groups out of BTC.. or do you still want to remain ignorant of history. even when gmax himself told you so recently

if core is the 'reference client' literally the CORE of the network. what do you think people are going to follow.
have you even realised how much control or power core have. or are you really trying to deny it still.

P.S core.. or more specifically matt corrallo changed some checking mechanisms in the last couple years and guess who approved it, gmax. and guess what that change done. made it possible to double spend.. luckily people realised it. but guess what had to occur.. no it was not a just release a client without the bug and let people download it.. but instead plead to core to change their code, where core asked the bug finder to keep quiet about it. and then LATER core eventually got round to releasing a fix.

yep asking people they have to download core as the solution because god forbid if the bug finder released his own fix core would go mental and call it as many names under the sun as they could think of

before even bothering to reply. just ask yourself, are you about to press the reply button for
a. defend a dev reputation
b.deny history of occurances without independant research
c. deny history of occurances because someone pro core said told you what to believe
d. reply just to be sarcastic and poke the bear as usual
or maybe
e. done some independant research without pro-core influence
f. actually think about things from a critical thinking perspective of the btc networks security without core defence mantra

if the answer sounds long the lines of a,b,c,d dont even bother.. i heard all your fan club speaches

P.S
devs are already doing it LN but LN's millisats are not compatible with BTC's sats. which is why the pegging locked transactions are at play between the TWO SEPARATE NETWORKS
(an LN payment is not a BTC transaction)

core devs hope to soon add 4 more decimals to btc so that btc and LN match to really mak it APPEAR as if its all the same thing, before too many people wise up that its 2 separate networks using 2 different units of account and 2 different 'ledger' formats

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Please do your own research & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. many people replying with insults but no on-topic content substance, automatically are 'facepalmed' and yawned at
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November 14, 2019, 05:26:40 PM
 #35

anyway bitcoins values( function) has always been '21mill btc' even though the number of decimals over the years have changed.
yep bitcoin 2009 didnt have 8 decimals
and in a few years wont have 8 decimals

but bitcoins value(price) is not based on the 18m in circulation. nor the potential 21m circulation.. bitcoins price value is based on cost of mining and the market rate where the supply is around 1.2m deposited in exchanges and put on order lines

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November 14, 2019, 06:44:06 PM
 #36

Yes scarcity, as in limited supply, aka. deflationary coin. There is of course the way it works, how it runs code and not just obey the whims of an individual or a group of individuals that could change the rules at any point to fit their "needs". Node decentralization.

In short, the "no surprises" is an integral part of Bitcoin's value, along with limited supply. And of course, its technology that ensures its both safe and available; where there is no central authority that could be toppled to make it disappear.

Bitcoin complete is the sole reason it has the highest value in the market. Some people still don't get this, they cannot comprehend a non regulated coin is more valuable than a regulated one, precisely because there can never be surprises.

Your government can make you very poor overnight, as long as they wield the power to do so. Bitcoin takes that power away.

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November 15, 2019, 12:54:12 AM
 #37

Exactly mate, this is the point of BTC. The scarcity was one of the main reasons why it was seen as so popular, and a better payment option then some fiat currencies, a lot of people dislike inflation and if you are just not able to print more money, that entire factor is reduced and becomes impossible.

21 million market is perfect, this combined with the constant halving means that we will never need to worry about prices being an issue, or even running out of BTC for 30 or so years to come.

That's certainly true, mate. Satoshi designed Bitcoin to be a scarce cryptocurrency for a very good reason. With scarcity, you obtain a greater level of demand among worldwide investors. The less there is of an specific asset, the more valuable it'll be. This is just like Gold, where it's extremely scarce compared to other precious metals like Silver or Copper. Bitcoin resembles Gold, because it's very scarce relative to Fiat. National currencies experience constant inflation which turns out to be bad for the economy itself. But, a scarce cryptocurrency like Bitcoin, could benefit everyone in the process as it tends to become more valuable with each "halving event".

Despite this, 21 million coins in existence may not seem to be enough these days for the whole world. Luckily, Bitcoin's divisibility allows people to send fractions of a coin which is something not possible with Fiat. In the future, we could be sending "satoshis" instead of Bitcoins as it becomes extremely valuable by then. Imagine 10 "satoshis" being the equivalent of 10 cents (USD). We're still far from experiencing such scenario since we haven't reached the total of 21 million coins mined across the Blockchain. But rest assured, that Bitcoin will keep going as miners will earn from fees than the block reward itself. All in all, scarcity truly drives the value of Bitcoin towards new ATHs. Just my thoughts Grin

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November 15, 2019, 06:09:34 AM
 #38

It is obvious that you have some link to Vertex.Market and eToro if you look at your post history. You start threads with a whole wall of text and then you mention either eToro or Vertex.Market in your conclusion.  Roll Eyes

I am not saying that the content is rubbish, but it would have been a lot easier just to put that in your signature if you wanted to spam the forum with free advertisement.  Roll Eyes

Sorry, if I burst your bubble, but it is quite obvious what you are doing.  Roll Eyes

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November 15, 2019, 07:10:27 AM
 #39

yes scarcity I think is the main factor that makes bitcoin a valuable item. the number of requests and users is always increasing while the limited number of bitcoins will make bitcoin value more expensive in the future. and also bitcon will not experience inflation so it is not surprising if some people now trust bitcoin more than fiat money which is always eroded by inflation. when mass adoption of bitcoin can be achieved bitcoin will be a great alternative payment tool.

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November 15, 2019, 07:20:34 AM
 #40

We don't need to wait to feel how the situation it would be as 86% of bitcoin have already hit the market. Of the 21 million bitcoins in total, more than 18 million are already in supply. Bitcoin generation after the 2020 halving would further decrease. So we can assume bitcoin would be traded similar to the way we are having now. The decrease in mining generation should complement by the increase in price to retain the miners.

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