Alright, I made it obvious this time

[anon241469]

Bitcoin is converging to the stock-to-flow model. The paper that I posted to this forum previously, which explained all this, was too long. Here it is, simplified, in very obvious terms and many colorful pictures:

Just a 4 minute read:
https://medium.com/@AJC241469/on-bitcoins-convergence-simplified-part-1-3e521b0b1515

[bitmover]

Why don't you tell us something about your article first? A brief summary

I don't know what you are talking about. If you explained it here in a few words, about 200, more people would get interested and click in your post.

[anon241469]

Why don't you tell us something about your article first? A brief summary

I don't know what you are talking about. If you explained it here in a few words, about 200, more people would get interested and click in your post.

 - Seriously? The article is a summary! It's a 4 minute read! And when you do click it, the first thing you see is a picture and you'll know exactly what it's about: The S/F model.

[ChrisPop]

Nevertheless this is an interesting study and I want to thank you for taking the time to make it and format it nicely in an article. While I'm not very familiar with the stock-to-flow model ( I need to make some research on it) I can clearly see the ideas and patterns spotted in the market. If we continue this trend IMO we can see $1M/unit by 2030.

[anon241469]

Nevertheless this is an interesting study and I want to thank you for taking the time to make it and format it nicely in an article. While I'm not very familiar with the stock-to-flow model ( I need to make some research on it) I can clearly see the ideas and patterns spotted in the market. If we continue this trend IMO we can see $1M/unit by 2030.

 - Thanks, dude! I've just been trying to show this to other people because IMO this is very important. The first paper I wrote was so wordy and had so much math, barely anybody bothered to read it! So I had to make it simple and use a lot of pictures... I guess that was how I should have written it the first time.

The crazy thing is, the really incredible stuff that is implied by this studied isn't even mentioned in that article! If this pattern continues, there is going to be some craaaazzzyyy shit going down in less than a decade.

[bitmover]

.
 - Seriously? The article is a summary! It's a 4 minute read! And when you do click it, the first thing you see is a picture and you'll know exactly what it's about: The S/F model.

Ok, go ahead and do as you wish and ignore any constructive criticism. You are going far spamming your link around

I don't know what s/f is. If I were you, I would make something like:

" Do you know What is S/f model? S is for stocks, F for football, (or  whatever it is lol). It is useful for this and that.

Just paste your introduction or whatever... You are already promoting your article for free , try to put some effort in it.

Or just spam it around if you are satisfied with the results . I will never click such posts.

[MURONDI]

I feel curious about your article, but I don't really understand because the picture isn't clear enough, do you think the current market conditions are converging, ? from that analysis whether the price will go up,?

[Youghoor]

Bitcoin is converging to the stock-to-flow model. The paper that I posted to this forum previously, which explained all this, was too long. Here it is, simplified, in very obvious terms and many colorful pictures:

Just a 4 minute read:
https://medium.com/@AJC241469/on-bitcoins-convergence-simplified-part-1-3e521b0b1515

What is the whole idea behind this article because I just saw diagrams showing the market value of Bitcoin for the past years. What is the specific purpose of this article to both the crypto space and the ecosystem? There is no specific understanding of this article. You just made me waste my time trying to understand this article.

[anon241469]

Bitcoin is converging to the stock-to-flow model. The paper that I posted to this forum previously, which explained all this, was too long. Here it is, simplified, in very obvious terms and many colorful pictures:

Just a 4 minute read:
https://medium.com/@AJC241469/on-bitcoins-convergence-simplified-part-1-3e521b0b1515

What is the whole idea behind this article because I just saw diagrams showing the market value of Bitcoin for the past years. What is the specific purpose of this article to both the crypto space and the ecosystem? There is no specific understanding of this article. You just made me waste my time trying to understand this article.

 - If you read the second sentence of the article then you would know that the entire article is focused on a model of Bitcoin's market value based on its stock-to-flow ratio. The model was first proposed by a guy on Medium called "Plan B" (medium.com/@100trillionUSD). Did you read that sentence?

[anon241469]

I feel curious about your article, but I don't really understand because the picture isn't clear enough, do you think the current market conditions are converging, ? from that analysis whether the price will go up,?

 - You won't understand my article unless you first understand the model proposed by Plan B (medium.com/@100trillionUSD). If you've never heard of that article, or you don't understand it, then you won't have any idea what my article is talking about. That's why I mention it in the very beginning,

"You all remember this picture, right? If you don’t then you can go read about it on Plan B’s page: PlanB. If you do know what it is, let’s move on."

That's what I wrote. So, again, If you don't know what that picture is then go read about it on Plan B's page.

[airdnasxela]

Why don't you tell us something about your article first? A brief summary

I don't know what you are talking about. If you explained it here in a few words, about 200, more people would get interested and click in your post.

Same thought. The topic is not very clear. First is op didn't include some introduction or summary here in his thread. Second, the article starts with a picture, and asking us if we remembered that picture. You said if we don't know, go to other page which I think not everyone will do since it will took a lot of time instead of giving us short preview about the model.. Personally I don't understand the article because I'm just seeing different graphs without clear and easier-to-understand explanation.  I don't have an idea about stock-to-flow model, and I think the others too so you should have at least started your article with introduction and explaining what really the model is all about.

This is just my opinion so I hope, you take this lightly or suggestion and not as something negative.

[NeuroticFish]

- Seriously? The article is a summary! It's a 4 minute read!

Seriously. Many won't open a link, especially posted by a newbie.
This is a forum. A place people are discussing. What if instead of answering, people would post a link to their own websites?

So the advice to put a couple words here was a valid one.
And instead of countering such advises, be happy it was not reported and deleted for just posting a link.

So again, add more words there. Quote a little. It's for your interest.

[Kprawn]

The picture where you brought the Halving event into the equation shows that the low point at the Halving are increasing, but that the ATH price is

also going down. So the bottom is getting lower, but the ATH is also declining.    That is not good news for the people who bought in 2017 at the

ATH of $18 000+ ... at this trend, they will never recover their losses. I think the 2017 spike in the price was a abnormality and it will most probably

not happen again soon. Looking forward to the next spike in the price after the Halving then, based on your data. 

[lobat999]

- Seriously? The article is a summary! It's a 4 minute read!

Seriously. Many won't open a link, especially posted by a newbie.
This is a forum. A place people are discussing. What if instead of answering, people would post a link to their own websites?

So the advice to put a couple words here was a valid one.
And instead of countering such advises, be happy it was not reported and deleted for just posting a link.

So again, add more words there. Quote a little. It's for your interest.

I believe OP has a previously opened thread - wrote a paper about the convergence of bitcoin toward the stock-to-flow model about the subject matter and he/she maybe excited about his/her findings to present it to the community!

@OP, I hope you would welcome constructive criticisms from other members of the community in the hope that they may find your study interesting. So I guess you need to provide maybe just a little backgrounder about your study to present your idea clearly.

[franky1]

OP's data is flawed beyond belief

all he has done pretty much is claim a chart represents
the market price 2010-2012 multiplied by 10.5m
the market price 2012-2016 multiplied by 5.25m
the market price 2016+ multiplied by 2.65m

what he fails to attribute to the data is the fact that the market price is not of sales of every coin in circulation.
infact the market price chances by $'s for only  couple btc.
exchanges themselves are not hoarding 18m coins today. they are only hoarding 1.2m coins so the supplydemand dynamics of a markets price are not to do with the circulation of 18mill coins..

put simply
a) whether he done the market price multiplied by 10.5m
b) or market price multiplied by 50coin

a) whether he done the market price multiplied by 5.25m
b) or market price multiplied by 25coin

a) whether he done the market price multiplied by 2.65m
b) or market price multiplied by 12.5coin


both charts a and b would show the exact same pattern of price curve and rarity step
the only thing that changes is the legends/labels

things the charts miss are
1. coin creation costs dont double every 4 years and halt at each step(its a fluid transition due to difficulty over time)
2. the market does not have 18m hoard/supply it has about 1.2m supply at present and even back in 2013 with MTGox as the main exchange only having ~900k coins and other exchanges less totalling again around the same 1.2m supply

so sorry dude but you need to add more metrics into your math if you want to actually show stock:flow

[poptok1]

so sorry dude but you need to add more metrics into your math if you want to actually show stock:flow

I guess you have franked yourself this time, friend.
There is no doubt that bitcoin has stock flow, almost everything that changes/fluctuates has it.
Question is, did OP extracted correct conclusion from such analysis?
If I'm not mistaken, he is correlating the fact of stock-flow growth, with bitcoins price growth. Based on supply and demand law, this only seems like a correct interpretation however according to the definitions, one unit value does not necessary follow the model of growth while a very specific scenario is at play, that is instability of the market. This was discovered by Copernicus centuries ago!
As you have noted, market cap is actually stable, around 1.2m, so this is really looking like bitcoin is and will follow the flow pattern that OP is predicting. It's value should grow in correlation with the market, because supply is shrinking and the demand remains roughly the same.

[anon241469]

OP's data is flawed beyond belief

...

so sorry dude but you need to add more metrics into your math if you want to actually show stock:flow

 - You have no idea what you're talking about, and your English writing skills are so poor that it's hard to understand your criticism. If you don't understand the stock-to-flow model then that's fine, but you really can't provide any constructive criticism until you understand it.

[anon241469]

Why don't you tell us something about your article first? A brief summary

I don't know what you are talking about. If you explained it here in a few words, about 200, more people would get interested and click in your post.

Same thought. The topic is not very clear. First is op didn't include some introduction or summary here in his thread. Second, the article starts with a picture, and asking us if we remembered that picture. You said if we don't know, go to other page which I think not everyone will do since it will took a lot of time instead of giving us short preview about the model.. Personally I don't understand the article because I'm just seeing different graphs without clear and easier-to-understand explanation.  I don't have an idea about stock-to-flow model, and I think the others too so you should have at least started your article with introduction and explaining what really the model is all about.

This is just my opinion so I hope, you take this lightly or suggestion and not as something negative.

 - Well, to be fair, the title is actually quite concise, so if you read the title then you would know what the article is about. If you know what the word "convergence" means, and you see the title is called "On Bitcoin's Convergence," then that kinda already tells you what the article is about, right? And the article starts with the picture of the thing toward which Bitcoin is converging! Seriously, you people are complaining "I don't know what this is about," well that's not my fault! Maybe you should educate yourself! I provided the link to the article that will give you the educational foundation that you need to understand the article, but instead of clicking you just respond with "I don't know what you are talking about."

Well.... sorry, I'm not going to type all of Plan B's paper into this forum. I'm really quite surprised you've never heard of the stock-to-flow model.

[anon241469]

so sorry dude but you need to add more metrics into your math if you want to actually show stock:flow

I guess you have franked yourself this time, friend.
There is no doubt that bitcoin has stock flow, almost everything that changes/fluctuates has it.
Question is, did OP extracted correct conclusion from such analysis?
If I'm not mistaken, he is correlating the fact of stock-flow growth, with bitcoins price growth. Based on supply and demand law, this only seems like a correct interpretation however according to the definitions, one unit value does not necessary follow the model of growth while a very specific scenario is at play, that is instability of the market. This was discovered by Copernicus centuries ago!
As you have noted, market cap is actually stable, around 1.2m, so this is really looking like bitcoin is and will follow the flow pattern that OP is predicting. It's value should grow in correlation with the market, because supply is shrinking and the demand remains roughly the same.

 - To be more correct, it was Plan B who correlated the stock-to-flow with bitcoin's market value. The article that I posted merely demonstrated that bitcoin's market value appears to be converging toward the value implied by the model.

[anon241469]

Alright, I copied and pasted an explanation:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5200284.0