BTC Halving Effect???

[Lirnan]

I'm still a newbie and I'm confused.

Bitcoin halving is expected in May, 2020. From what I've been reading about halving, it seems that it should have a positive effect on any crypto coins pricing.

Today I read about Litecoin/LTC halving on August 5, 2019 and the halving effect after three months is negative, it's down 30% since the halving.

Is that also what can be expected of the Bitcoin halving?

[Lirnan]

Here's a three month chart showing the drop in price.
https://i.postimg.cc/ydz8sLYT/LTC-Halving-Effect.jpg

[avikz]

If I speak from an economics background, bitcoin halving is expected to rise its price! Because this is deflationary in nature which decreases the supply of it and increases it purchasing power. However, cryptocurrencies are not designed to fit into the definition of standard money so no one can assure you about the outcome! What everyone is doing is, speculation! It sometime goes right and sometime goes wrong! You already have an example, Litecoin. Which didn't come out as expected after halving and the price is in the red zone. Whoever is saying that bitcoin's price will go higher after the halving, they are all speculating and no one is certain about what's going to happen! So don't get confused and don't try to get an answer! Probably you will get it all wrong!

[hugeblack]

Today I read about Litecoin/LTC halving on August 5, 2019 and the halving effect after three months is negative, it's down 30% since the halving.
Is that also what can be expected of the Bitcoin halving?

This chart shows in a simplified manner the effects of Bitcoin halving in the past years.

You can read more here ---> Bitcoin Halving: Price Effects and Historical Relevance.
halving is one factor that may affect the price, but it will not have a direct impact, perhaps it will take more than a year.
So if you want to buy based on that factor, you should keep in mind that you will need patience for about a year or two.
The short-term effect can often be negative.

[cr1776]

The halving reduces the new supply of bitcoin by half.  A decrease in new supply could result in an increase in price if demand remains the same since there are fewer new coins available to satisfy that demand.  

Will it result in an increase in fiat price?  No one knows for sure, however after the previous halvings the fiat price of bitcoin has increased significantly.  Not immediately, of course, but that is probably because people are aware of the impact on supply and plan for it, then when it doesn't happen immediately they worry and sell.

So in short, no one knows the future and while it has happened in the past, there are no guarantees it will do so going forward.  If you do believe in the benefits of a decentralized, censorship resistant, non-state actor control currency, payment system, and asset then whether or not the fiat price immediately rises is less important that what has happened over the last 10+ years. 

The simple result of the halving is that if new supply decreases and demand stays flat (or increases), then the price will rise.

[Wintersoldier]

Here's my understanding of how it works, those that will be affected negatively are the miners, their usual payment will be cut off in half, so instead of gaining the full amount of payment for the processes, it will then be halved. On the other hand, since the miner's fee is halved, they will sell their bitcoin at a higher price. As a result, hodlers of bitcoin will benefit from this demand as they will also sell their bitcoin at higher market prices.

[TGD]

It might be a double edge sword for bitcoin holders. It's undeniably that bitcoin might increase price because the difficulty of mining it will double so BTC supply growth will decrease and appling the supply and demand rule, BTC will pump but on the other hand, BTC miner might shift to other coin because it will be harder for them to mine BTC it will consume more power to mine same amount of BT that they are currently mining. If miners shift then its the end for BTC since no one will verify transaction, BTC blockchain will be clogged by pending transaction.

[BrewMaster]

Bitcoin halving is expected in May, 2020. From what I've been reading about halving, it seems that it should have a positive effect on any crypto coins pricing.

there is no obligations to rise so you can't say "should" here. people are speculating it will rise based on two things.
first is the previous two halvings that bitcoin had in the past 10 years. each of them had a big rise before the halving and after a month or two led to a huge rise.
and second is the fact that it slows down the production of bitcoin by 50% and that injection of new supply in the market changes the balance between supply and demand and can lead to a rise.

Today I read about Litecoin/LTC halving on August 5, 2019 and the halving effect after three months is negative, it's down 30% since the halving.

you can not compare bitcoin with an altcoin.
bitcoin has usages hence "demand" while altcoins do not. so when their supply is halved there is no demand to help any rise. instead what halving of an altcoin does is that it reduces the earning potential of miners and as they leave the coin loses security and value over time.
there are also a lot of other things in play when it comes to altcoins such as their pumped bubbles bursting, their hype being over, ... and in case of LTC it is a copy of bitcoin so it really isn't something special to have that much potential!

[Jet Cash]

The block mining reward will have a decreasing influence on the value of Bitcoin. As coins are removed from the available pool that was created when the genesis block was laid, the rewards from transaction fees will replace them. We may also see investment houses increasing their block mining activities. After all, what better way is there to move Bitcoin between investment wallets than by using your own mined blocks. It frees you from government restrictions for a start.

[Lirnan]

Thanks to all for your sage advice.

With credit given to Digital Asset Management Corp for the original chart in regard to halving (I modified it a bit),
https://i.postimg.cc/gJQ16H0B/BTC-Halving-Potential.jpg

BTW, off topic, the website Preview link does not work for me, neither does the Insert Image link.

[posi]

I'm still a newbie and I'm confused.

Bitcoin halving is expected in May, 2020. From what I've been reading about halving, it seems that it should have a positive effect on any crypto coins pricing.

Today I read about Litecoin/LTC halving on August 5, 2019 and the halving effect after three months is negative, it's down 30% since the halving.

Is that also what can be expected of the Bitcoin halving?

The condition of Litecoin halving can not be use to judge or prediction what will happen during bitcoin halving and the reason why Litecoin yield a negative result instead of positives is because it don't have massive user base level like before, when Charlie decision didn't poison the coin holder and investors mind.
Nevertheless, most altcoin will surge in price when the halving effect take over the market but is not every altcoin that's good for investment.

[mindrust]

It is basic supply an demand stuff.

In May/2020 the block reward for bitcoin will be half of what it is now. Block rewards are being distributed among the miners in every ~10 minutes and miners sell these coins to cover their costs which create inflation. Miners will be having half of the block rewards which means they'll be dumping half of what they do now which is expected as a increase in price.

[YuginKadoya]

Bitcoin will not end up just like Litecoin did even if I am speculating the supply will surely lessen after the Halving that is why I believe the price will rise and many enthusiasts are expecting the price of Bitcoin to pump after the Halving that is why even if the Halving will be a negative the price will surely have a small pump at price because there will be more buying it because they are suspecting the Halving to increase its price.

[lionheart78]

Bitcoin will not end up just like Litecoin did even if I am speculating the supply will surely lessen after the Halving that is why I believe the price will rise and many enthusiasts are expecting the price of Bitcoin to pump after the Halving that is why even if the Halving will be a negative the price will surely have a small pump at price because there will be more buying it because they are suspecting the Halving to increase its price.

It will end like Litecoin halving but the hype effect will be longer than 3 months.  If we look at the history of Bitcoin, it takes about more than a year before the halving hype diminish.  We can also look at the Bitcoin four year cycle pattern wherein the halving hype effect lasted for more than a year before the bear hit the market.

[MURONDI]

if demand remains or increases when bitcoin supply decreases, in theory it can have a positive impact on the price of bitcoin, but the fact is sometimes different, because we never know the will of everyone, the trade was full of surprises, and no one can guess it accurately.

[Chain Clash]

Yeah, Litecoin dropped as the entire market dropped. Also the halving itself is expected to have a bigger impact on Bitcoin because the current market supply is being created by miners selling their rewards. There is generally not a lot of supply in Bitcoin that is being actively traded, so a reduction in supply (at constant demand) should drive the price up.

This can of course be covered by other events, so it's hard to rely on the halving driving price up all by itself.

[ralle14]

It will end like Litecoin halving but the hype effect will be longer than 3 months.  If we look at the history of Bitcoin, it takes about more than a year before the halving hype diminish.  We can also look at the Bitcoin four year cycle pattern wherein the halving hype effect lasted for more than a year before the bear hit the market.

The future effects of the halving for Bitcoin won't always be longer, the previous ones did but we can't say it'll be the same for all of the future halving events.

Bitcoin will increase in price just before halving because of the forthcoming scarcity of bitcoin as miner's reward will be reduced by half.

The price could increase just a few months before the halving but it's usually the other way around the significant increases happen after.

Thanks to all for your sage advice.

With credit given to Digital Asset Management Corp for the original chart in regard to halving (I modified it a bit),


BTW, off topic, the website Preview link does not work for me, neither does the Insert Image link.

The insert image works once you're rank is above newbie, here i'll quote it for the others to see.

[squatter]

I'm still a newbie and I'm confused.

Bitcoin halving is expected in May, 2020. From what I've been reading about halving, it seems that it should have a positive effect on any crypto coins pricing.

Today I read about Litecoin/LTC halving on August 5, 2019 and the halving effect after three months is negative, it's down 30% since the halving.

Is that also what can be expected of the Bitcoin halving?

To an extent, probably yes. Upcoming halvings are usually seen as a psychological reason to buy or hold. Once they're over, the hype is gone.

You can't view Litecoin's post-halving decline in a vacuum, though. From the start of 2019 to late June, it rose 390% in price. A correction was inevitable. Given that these heights were reached just several weeks before the halving, it's no surprise that price declined so much afterwards.

[gantez]

If I speak from an economics background, bitcoin halving is expected to rise its price! Because this is deflationary in nature which decreases the supply of it and increases it purchasing power. However, cryptocurrencies are not designed to fit into the definition of standard money so no one can assure you about the outcome! What everyone is doing is, speculation! It sometime goes right and sometime goes wrong! You already have an example, Litecoin. Which didn't come out as expected after halving and the price is in the red zone. Whoever is saying that bitcoin's price will go higher after the halving, they are all speculating and no one is certain about what's going to happen! So don't get confused and don't try to get an answer! Probably you will get it all wrong!

And you are quite right. It is actually suppose to cause an increase because of maybe more demand which should have originally happened from economics on regulated market but we have seen that maybe because of bitcoin freedom or decentralization, price can go anyway.

[pixie85]

The halving will increase the price in the long run but there doesn't have to be a pump right before or right after it.

The value of mined coins will be greater bou for that value to influence all the coins in existence we may have to wait.

People are looking at past halvings and trying to guess what will happen next and for that reason it can be different this time. Bitcoin usually does something unexpected.