Trump Impeachment Public Hearings [serious discussion]

[dupeddonk]

...
Ok.  I won't assume you are defending Trump anymore unless you say so explicitly, sorry.  There wasn't any sort of bad faith argument on my part though, the "descriptive phrases" you used are also being used to argue why Trump shouldn't be impeached, and this is a thread about the Impeachment hearings, so I think my assumption that you were presenting a defense was reasonable.  

Thanks. Earlier I was "defending Trump," when it was suggested two consecutive events implied causality and hence guilt.

Two consecutive events can imply guilt.  Are you saying that they can't?

[Spendulus]

...
Ok.  I won't assume you are defending Trump anymore unless you say so explicitly, sorry.  There wasn't any sort of bad faith argument on my part though, the "descriptive phrases" you used are also being used to argue why Trump shouldn't be impeached, and this is a thread about the Impeachment hearings, so I think my assumption that you were presenting a defense was reasonable.  

Thanks. Earlier I was "defending Trump," when it was suggested two consecutive events implied causality and hence guilt.

Two consecutive events can imply guilt.  Are you saying that they can't?

 Well, read that section and tell us what you think?

[TECSHARE]

Two consecutive events can imply guilt.  Are you saying that they can't?

You mean like Biden's son getting a high paying job at a company being investigated for corruption after his dad threatens to have the lead prosecutor fired and hold back aid if they don't? Good point.

[dupeddonk]

Two consecutive events can imply guilt.  Are you saying that they can't?

You mean like Biden's son getting a high paying job at a company being investigated for corruption after his dad threatens to have the lead prosecutor fired and hold back aid if they don't? Good point.

Yeah.  The BS Joe Biden pulled def implies guilt.

[bluefirecorp_]

The deflection from the opposition is funny to say the least. Trump's going down for his crimes.

Soon(tm), he'll be impeached in the house. The senate won't convict, but he'll lose the election in 2020. After that, it's open season for all his crimes.

He'll be in courts the rest of his life if he doesn't fake his death like Epstein did.

[Spendulus]

Two consecutive events can imply guilt.  Are you saying that they can't?

You mean like Biden's son getting a high paying job at a company being investigated for corruption after his dad threatens to have the lead prosecutor fired and hold back aid if they don't? Good point.

No, that is two consecutive events along with other data. Biden himself links the two events as cause and effect of his action.

[TwitchySeal]

I think FiveThirtyEight does of pretty good job of building models based on all the major poll results over time and explaining how the models work.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Should the Impeachment Inquiry Proceed:


Should Trump Be Impeached or Impeached and Removed from Office:


General Support of Impeachment

[Spendulus]

I think FiveThirtyEight ....

So, regardless of the facts, impeach?

[TwitchySeal]

So, regardless of the facts, impeach?

No. 

[squatz1]

--SNIP OF 538 STUFF--

I think these are pretty insane to look at for a second. 45 percent of Americans (which is a large portion of Americans) think that the Impeachment inquiry should end right now. That's pretty much all the support that a President needs to win the electoral college in the modern time. This is without a doubt why Trump thinks he's going to be able to win with just his base, some Republicans, and a couple indys to win.

Yes I do know there is the other half -- the 55 percent of Americans that think this should proceed. But I EXPECTED the 'should this proceed' question to be at least 70-30 and maybe support for impeachment to be around the ballpark of 50-50. But this is pretty crazy to truly look at.

Shows that there is truly a silent portion of the population that does support this President, and doesn't really care about the wrongs he commits. We'll see in the coming days, weeks, months if that is going to hold.

[TwitchySeal]

--SNIP OF 538 STUFF--

I think these are pretty insane to look at for a second. 45 percent of Americans (which is a large portion of Americans) think that the Impeachment inquiry should end right now. That's pretty much all the support that a President needs to win the electoral college in the modern time. This is without a doubt why Trump thinks he's going to be able to win with just his base, some Republicans, and a couple indys to win.

Yes I do know there is the other half -- the 55 percent of Americans that think this should proceed. But I EXPECTED the 'should this proceed' question to be at least 70-30 and maybe support for impeachment to be around the ballpark of 50-50. But this is pretty crazy to truly look at.

Shows that there is truly a silent portion of the population that does support this President, and doesn't really care about the wrongs he commits. We'll see in the coming days, weeks, months if that is going to hold.

This is all fair, imo - although I question the silent majority part.  If you think you know what they think, they aren't really silent...even if they haven't said anything.

The most interesting takeaway, imo,  is not the actual numbers, just the shift in opinion after each event.

Mueller Report: Not a big shift.
Mueller Testimony: Not a big shift.
Ukraine Scandal: Obvious big shift.

[Spendulus]

....
Mueller Report: Not a big shift.
Mueller Testimony: Not a big shift.
Ukraine Scandal: Obvious big shift.

Wait...

So now there's an actual "Ukraine Scandal?"

I learned something today.

Have they decided what is in the box labeled Ukraine Scandal?

[TwitchySeal]

....
Mueller Report: Not a big shift.
Mueller Testimony: Not a big shift.
Ukraine Scandal: Obvious big shift.

Wait...

So now there's an actual "Ukraine Scandal?"

I learned something today.

Have they decided what is in the box labeled Ukraine Scandal?

Let's keep this as a serious discussion thread.  I'd like to respond to you seriously, but it's clear your questions aren't serious.

Please don't take this as an attack on you, it's nothing personal, but knock it off with the passive aggressive/bad faith arguments.  There are plenty of other threads for that.

If you have a point to make, just make it.

[squatz1]

--SNIP OF 538 STUFF--

I think these are pretty insane to look at for a second. 45 percent of Americans (which is a large portion of Americans) think that the Impeachment inquiry should end right now. That's pretty much all the support that a President needs to win the electoral college in the modern time. This is without a doubt why Trump thinks he's going to be able to win with just his base, some Republicans, and a couple indys to win.

Yes I do know there is the other half -- the 55 percent of Americans that think this should proceed. But I EXPECTED the 'should this proceed' question to be at least 70-30 and maybe support for impeachment to be around the ballpark of 50-50. But this is pretty crazy to truly look at.

Shows that there is truly a silent portion of the population that does support this President, and doesn't really care about the wrongs he commits. We'll see in the coming days, weeks, months if that is going to hold.

This is all fair, imo - although I question the silent majority part.  If you think you know what they think, they aren't really silent...even if they haven't said anything.

The most interesting takeaway, imo,  is not the actual numbers, just the shift in opinion after each event.

Mueller Report: Not a big shift.
Mueller Testimony: Not a big shift.
Ukraine Scandal: Obvious big shift.

I don't mean silent in the sense that they keep all their views to themselves, I say silent in the sense that they keep to themselves. They're not going to be out in the streets protesting, they're not going to be on social media talking about things, they're not those types of people. They're going to impose their will at the 2020 pres election.

Also in regards to the polling shift : We're not going to know if this is a temporary bump until a few weeks / months from now. It could normalize if nothing comes out of this or the GOP is able to spin it well.

We'll see.

[TwitchySeal]

Four witnesses scheduled for tomorrow:


Morning Hearing:

Jennifer Williams
- Mike Pence's special adviser for Europe and Russia

Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman
- National Security Council


Afternoon Hearing:

Kurt Volker
- Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO
- Former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine (resigned in September)

Timothy Morrison
- National Security Council member, "Russia Expert"

[dupeddonk]

Four witnesses scheduled for tomorrow:


Morning Hearing:

Jennifer Williams
- Mike Pence's special adviser for Europe and Russia

Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman
- National Security Council


Afternoon Hearing:

Kurt Volker
- Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO
- Former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine (resigned in September)

Timothy Morrison
- National Security Council member, "Russia Expert"

Tomorrow will probably not be that interesting.  Wed and Thurs will be more revealing with the GOPs witness and Mike Pences aid.

[squatz1]

Four witnesses scheduled for tomorrow:


Morning Hearing:

Jennifer Williams
- Mike Pence's special adviser for Europe and Russia

Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman
- National Security Council


Afternoon Hearing:

Kurt Volker
- Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO
- Former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine (resigned in September)

Timothy Morrison
- National Security Council member, "Russia Expert"

Only on here who I think is going to be pretty interesting is Kurt Volker, though it seems like he's going to make the statement that he didn't know that ukraine aid was tied to investigations of Biden (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/18/us/politics/trump-impeachment.html)

Unsure of what the info the others are potentially going to be present.

ALSO: About the Trump impeachment polls, seems like Indys and Republicans dont think Trump should be impeached, while Democrats (laregely) think he should be. I think the poll data I reasing says 80 percent of Republicans think Trump SHOULDN'T be impeached, 55 percent of Indys think he shouldnt, while 15 percent of Dems think he shouldn't.

[PrimeNumber7]

I think it is pretty clear that Vindman is the source to the person who filed the whistleblower complaint. He would not directly answer a question about if he knew if anyone who spoke to the press about the phone call. He also refused to answer questions about who he spoke to about the phone call, using a bogus claim that he didn’t have to answer. 

The more the hearings go on, the  more obvious it becomes that this is a partisan exercise. I would not be surprised if Democrats lose votes when they vote on articles of impeachment. I would put the chances of articles of impeachment failing to pass to be at least 40%.

[TwitchySeal]

I think it is pretty clear that Vindman is the source to the person who filed the whistleblower complaint. He would not directly answer a question about if he knew if anyone who spoke to the press about the phone call. He also refused to answer questions about who he spoke to about the phone call, using a bogus claim that he didn’t have to answer.  

The more the hearings go on, the  more obvious it becomes that this is a partisan exercise. I would not be surprised if Democrats lose votes when they vote on articles of impeachment. I would put the chances of articles of impeachment failing to pass to be at least 40%.

Yeah, it's pretty clear that the guy Vindman told but wasn't allowed to name is the whistle blower.

The identity of the whistle blower is irrelevant though.  Even if Hillary Clinton were the whistle blower, it wouldn't change the fact that the report was deemed credible by the IG and that most of the claims have been corroborated by credible witnesses.  Harping on exposing the whistle blowers identity is just a distraction.

Hearing #2 of the day starts in a few minutes.

[squatz1]

I think it is pretty clear that Vindman is the source to the person who filed the whistleblower complaint. He would not directly answer a question about if he knew if anyone who spoke to the press about the phone call. He also refused to answer questions about who he spoke to about the phone call, using a bogus claim that he didn’t have to answer.  

The more the hearings go on, the  more obvious it becomes that this is a partisan exercise. I would not be surprised if Democrats lose votes when they vote on articles of impeachment. I would put the chances of articles of impeachment failing to pass to be at least 40%.

Yeah, it's pretty clear that the guy Vindman told but wasn't allowed to name is the whistle blower.

The identity of the whistle blower is irrelevant though.  Even if Hillary Clinton were the whistle blower, it wouldn't change the fact that the report was deemed credible by the IG and that most of the claims have been corroborated by credible witnesses.  Harping on exposing the whistle blowers identity is just a distraction.

Hearing #2 of the day starts in a few minutes.

I think the portion about the whistleblower is that the GOP wants to know if Trump had someone actively working against him in the White House -- which is most likely true, I mean there have been reports that his CoS and his Sec of State (former ones) had tried to recruit Nikki Haley to join them to stop Trump and save the country. So I wouldn't be surprised if he was actively working against the President.

Their whole thing is if they can find out that the whistleblower hated Trump, they can spin this as a story of a disgruntled employee and try to shy away from the Ukraine stuff. Makes a little bit of sense.