Bitcoin Halving Price Prediction $55,000 - $130,000

[gogoi]

Approximately every 4 years the reward that miners receive for finding a block, halves. This event is referred to as the “Bitcoin halving” and was hardcoded by Satoshi Nakamoto into the Bitcoin protocol to enforce its deflationary monetary policy.

In the 2020 Bitcoin halving mining rewards will drop from 12.5 Bitcoins per block, to 6.25 Bitcoins per block.

At the time of the 2020 halving, 18,375,000 Bitcoins will have been mined in total. That’s approximately 85% of the total Bitcoin supply.

What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140. Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

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[ReiMomo]

The count down of the next halving scalability was almost there, https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ link shows, 182 days more to go.

Everyone waiting for the best result on this becoming promising event in bitcoin price, the next halving. But the real fact is no one knows the market situation is and it is an unpredictable price movement. Let's time can tell and will reveal the truth.

Thank you for sharing.

[aardvark15]

Approximately every 4 years the reward that miners receive for finding a block, halves. This event is referred to as the “Bitcoin halving” and was hardcoded by Satoshi Nakamoto into the Bitcoin protocol to enforce its deflationary monetary policy.

In the 2020 Bitcoin halving mining rewards will drop from 12.5 Bitcoins per block, to 6.25 Bitcoins per block.

At the time of the 2020 halving, 18,375,000 Bitcoins will have been mined in total. That’s approximately 85% of the total Bitcoin supply.

What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140. Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

I expect that the price will hold about where it is now until about 3 months before the halving. At that point it will probably gradually increase to double the price by the halving.  This is approximately what happened in 2016.

[gentlemand]

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140.

It didn't happen until well into the following year.

I expect nothing much until 2021 myself but I'm more than willing to be surprised. I think this one will be significant in that inflation will finally fall below the average competently managed fiat currency and it'll gradually dawn on people that there really aren't that many more coins to come.

[batang_bitcoin]

I expect nothing much until 2021 myself but I'm more than willing to be surprised.

I'm also thinking the same thing, I've seen the other halving and didn't do much after it but the next year was a boom. It's no longer surprising if it will reach that price range given by op. It can double the last all-time high but expect that there will be a follow-up drop.

I expect that the price will hold about where it is now until about 3 months before the halving. At that point it will probably gradually increase to double the price by the halving.  This is approximately what happened in 2016.

Yes, that's what happened and the positive effect took place by the next year so probably by 2021.

[gentlemand]

I'm also thinking the same thing, I've seen the other halving and didn't do much after it but the next year was a boom.

It does also of course depend on what the wider economy is up to as well. 2021 is quite a way away and a lot could go tits up by then. All previous price action has happened with the luxury of a pretty much relentless rising tide. At some point that has to falter and then we'll see what's what.

[gabbie2010]

The expected impact due to halving of bitcoin come 2020 would not be impact it may take some time before the expected increase to take place I am of the opinion that it may take effect after six month and the speculated price of $55,000 is more like an exaggeration I would say there would a reasonable pump in the price probably the price would surpass that last ATH in 2017 all these speculations are based on the previous price history

[gogoi]

The expected impact due to halving of bitcoin come 2020 would not be impact it may take some time before the expected increase to take place I am of the opinion that it may take effect after six month and the speculated price of $55,000 is more like an exaggeration I would say there would a reasonable pump in the price probably the price would surpass that last ATH in 2017 all these speculations are based on the previous price history

The move taking place around 6 months after the halving is laid out in the video. Watch it, you will learn a lot. As far as the 55K target, during the next bull market we will greatly surpass that. But seriously take ten minutes and watch the video it is well worth it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

[eaLiTy]

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140. Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

There is no doubt that there was a rise in price of BTCitcoin during every halving event but the main thing you have to notice that the economic situation globally was not stable and the during the initial phase it was well after the recovery phase, but if you access the global economic situation right now it is not that great and if there is a financial crises then these predictions might not happen, there are many factors right now including regulatory talks and other factors and these were not the case during the past halving and hence you cannot always expect the same when these factors change.

[shield132]

In 2012, there was roughly 10x rise in bitcoin's price. In 2016, there was roughly 30x rise. So what about to add them to each other and then halv too? I think 20x rise of current price may be fair cause from this halving. Halving caused huge positive effect on people in both cases and I highly believe this halving will do the same because everyone has almost this expectation that after halving price rises and this expectation + hope + need, really causes rise in price.

[Pearls Before Swine]

Anything is possible, of course, but those prices Op predicted seem outlandish to me.  There was more to those previous price increases surrounding the last two halvings I think, and I would also have expected any change to be priced in beforehand.  If it was that easy to predict a huge increase just because of a halving, it would be like free money for everyone who was interested.  That somehow doesn't ring true to me.

I'm not hoping that bitcoin *won't* get to $100,000 or above, and even $50,000 would make me ecstatic, but there has to be some serious demand, some serious buying in order for that to happen.  So we'll see. 

[gentlemand]

Anything is possible, of course, but those prices Op predicted seem outlandish to me.  There was more to those previous price increases surrounding the last two halvings I think, and I would also have expected any change to be priced in beforehand.  If it was that easy to predict a huge increase just because of a halving, it would be like free money for everyone who was interested.  That somehow doesn't ring true to me.

I well remember the same thoughts about the previous one yet it happened.

I do agree with you though. It seems way too set in stone in many a mind for something that has only happened twice but this one comes at a time where the building blocks are being put in place for a level of onboarding that wasn't conceivable at the first one.

It's also easy to forget that there was an absolute torrent of new coins still arriving and to arrive at the previous ones. There's still a decent amount of course but in 2012 56% of all coins had been mined, then 78% in 2016 and 89% this time. Then it's just under 11% left for 120 years. That's a big arse difference just when demand might reach previously uncharted levels.

I think it's likely there won't be many more halvings that have an actual noticeable effect, will anyone care about a reduction from 0.00152587 to 0.00076293?, but this one could be the biggest of all before its impact starts to fade away beyond pure psychology or nostalgia.

[samcrypto]

In 2012, there was roughly 10x rise in bitcoin's price. In 2016, there was roughly 30x rise. So what about to add them to each other and then halv too? I think 20x rise of current price may be fair cause from this halving. Halving caused huge positive effect on people in both cases and I highly believe this halving will do the same because everyone has almost this expectation that after halving price rises and this expectation + hope + need, really causes rise in price.

There’s a good history about the halving and yes we are expecting a better pump this time and we really hope for that. If we we are going to base the future pump of bitcoin to its history, then it will be more that 50x from its price to day. Its good to be more positive and stay low, expect the reality and be better for tomorrow bitcoin will be the key for our success financially so keep working.

[magneto]

I think it's possible but it's unlikely for sure.

The market capitalisation right now is significantly higher than previous bull markets, which suggests that it'll be significantly harder for markets to move in the upward direction because it would require a significantly higher capital injection within the market.

It still remains to be seen whether or not $20k will be breached this time round, because 5 digits is still posing significant psychological barriers right now.

[gentlemand]

I think it's possible but it's unlikely for sure.

The market capitalisation right now is significantly higher than previous bull markets, which suggests that it'll be significantly harder for markets to move in the upward direction because it would require a significantly higher capital injection within the market.

I really thought that once the price had moved into late 4 figures and 5 figures the percentages of the moves would be radically lower. People would be excited by a couple of hundred bucks. Yet it can still lose or gain 30-40% in a single day just as it could when it was 2 figures.

I don't know what that means, it doesn't seem healthy to me, but the possibility for truly barking moves is still more than alive and kicking.

If we think in terms of market cap and just how thin these markets are then it still doesn't really require huge sums to make giant moves. I expected it to be past that by now but it hasn't changed. It looks like it needs another monstrous move up before it does start to behave in a less shitcoiny manner and even then it might need another one.

[Baofeng]

Maybe the question is when are we going to hit that price?

To be able to get to that range, we need money, fresh blood to pump the market, maybe institutions to enter the picture. But it will be very difficult specially when we tops $20k as this is going to be the big psychological barrier (remember the last time?). But I believed that the money should come in retail or more adoption continents like Africa could be a big place to fuel this, just saying.

[Slow death]

Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

Two years ago, the price has reached the $20,000 because of ICOs, hard fork and the high expectation created about the Futures. If we follow your reasoning, then when the price reaches $55000 months later it will fall much as it did when the price reached $20,000 and then dropped to $ 3000. I see a lot of comments that the price will reach $ 55000, but in my opinion this is a big exaggeration

[goinmerry]

Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

2016 halving..it's like just yesterday. I remember a few months before 2016 halving, everyone always talks about the price increase that might happen after that. And halving now occurs, no big movement on the price for at least months if I remember. Then suddenly at the last quarter of 2017, bitcoin gone wild and established it's new ATH.

I personally believed that's not because of halving but only because others ride the trend. Now for the upcoming halving next year, I will not think of the same since we are now done on the stage of withstanding the negative impacts and all remains are true.

We might not see a sudden increase after the next year 's halving but I'm sure the bitcoin price will establish a new ATH after a year or two.

[proudhon]

Nah, the halving was priced in in that run-up near $14k earlier this year. Once the halving comes and goes and the price is still below $10k, then the real disappointment will set in and we'll see massive sell-offs as people abandon bitcoin en masse. The run for the door is going to be as spectacular to watch as its rise has been. It'll wobble up and down as it continues the greater down trend it's been in, and is clear as day, for the last near 2 years. It might be able sustain an unstable price around $1k. $20k was utter insanity. $10k is pretty absurd.

[wajik-tempe]

Even the supply is less and the difficulty to get bitcoin is twice higher after halving, it will still depends on the demand, it the demands is still the same just like today, i'm sure the price at least doubled from today. And for reaching more than 50k i think it won't happen in near future but a year after the halving, just like the big bull run before, bitcoin halving in 2016 and the price pumped in the next year

[bitsurfer2014]

Now this will be more exciting as the next Bitcoin halving will ultimately prove or disappoint what most people expect - a historic recurrence wherein Bitcoin price soars up after that event!

I personally believe the effects of this next halving will definitely be in a greater magnitude so that I would assume that we will see Bitcoin reach a new ATH again.

[ashmodeus]

well, that price is too high for me .
i saw the explanation on that video and i just confused , he just explain based on previous halving , and calculate percentage , but he didn't think any factor/sentiment from other sides.
i wont believe it , if u want hear my speculation , 19-40k is a perfect price.

[LouVandetta]

I can't wait to see what the effect the halving will have later. Only 181 days to go. As OP mentioned after the halving the price rose quite significantly.
And the last halving that occurred July 2016 took a year and a half to reached the All Time high on late 2017. So I don't think we will gonna see another big pump in 2020.
Might be 2021, still, I might be wrong. But I do hope for the best.

[Reid]

But the price could not be actually told accurately.

Let us make 20k as an example. Yes, it did hit that price but it doesn't mean that it will stay that way.
That pump is most likely an error for me. It doesn't seem to be right at all.

True that miners need the right price for payments in their electric bills but still the demand should show up. If none of those happens then how will there be a good pump?

[Darooghe]

The previous two halvings were followed by jumps up to $1,200 and $19,000. However, it takes months or a year for this effect to be seen. short term effects are due to hype but long term effects are due to the actual decrease in new supply creation. according to experience from other halvings on other coins. If the value doesn’t pick-up, the hashrate/difficulty will adjust to a new lower equilibrium as less profitable mining. So the risk I see is the huge expectations which are associated with this event, and unlike the previous times this time it seems everyone is aware and waiting for the spike to happen.

[alexsandria]

The count down of the next halving scalability was almost there, https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ link shows, 182 days more to go.

Everyone waiting for the best result on this becoming promising event in bitcoin price, the next halving. But the real fact is no one knows the market situation is and it is an unpredictable price movement. Let's time can tell and will reveal the truth.

Thank you for sharing.

I am so excited with this event though I somehow afraid of something. Well, halving never fails, price always pumps right after the halving though no one knows what might come next but if we were to look back halving makes price go sky-rocket, and it always did so we are somehow sure that right after the halving in mid 2020 price will surely increase. In comparison in the real world when supply decreases the demand increases as well as its price.

[maydna]

It's hard to predict if the price will hit that price, although it could be possible to happen when the halving is close from now. We don't have a clue on how high bitcoin prices will reach, and many people making their predictions. Some people say bitcoin will rise so high and perhaps, it will cross more than $20k-$30k because the rewards for the miner reduces.

Perhaps, the price will hit $40k in 2021, but in 2020, the price will start to rise step by step, and it's not increasing in a short time. But who knows that what we expected can happen in the next year.

[Taskford]

The count down of the next halving scalability was almost there, https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ link shows, 182 days more to go.

Everyone waiting for the best result on this becoming promising event in bitcoin price, the next halving. But the real fact is no one knows the market situation is and it is an unpredictable price movement. Let's time can tell and will reveal the truth.

Thank you for sharing.

I am so excited with this event though I somehow afraid of something. Well, halving never fails, price always pumps right after the halving though no one knows what might come next but if we were to look back halving makes price go sky-rocket, and it always did so we are somehow sure that right after the halving in mid 2020 price will surely increase. In comparison in the real world when supply decreases the demand increases as well as its price.

For the long streak of bear market for sure there will be a good thing coming in 2020 and since halving season will came we will gonna experience another skyrocketing price just like what we see on the past halving. And it's good thing to take out the negativity on our mind so that we can create a positive mindset to the person who talks about this but the let see what will happen on future on hopefully we will not fail for our expectations.

[Wexnident]

Well, most of us are probably expecting a similar progression or turn of events just as the past halvings, or at the very least, something similar. Observations could be seen that halvings occur, price goes up and down then suddenly pumps at an insane price. Its honestly quite hard to believe its possible for it to occur a 3rd time, but we all hope as such though.

Assuming that BTC popped off in the past halvings because of the supply being cut off in half, and then another half, we can assume that this halving is the midway, and the rest of the halvings after this year wouldn't impact BTC like what the last halvings did.

If we can say that the last 2 were pumps in price , the 3rd could be a pump or retain, while the rest after the third should be negligible rises or just price retain.

[batang_bitcoin]

I'm also thinking the same thing, I've seen the other halving and didn't do much after it but the next year was a boom.

It does also of course depend on what the wider economy is up to as well. 2021 is quite a way away and a lot could go tits up by then. All previous price action has happened with the luxury of a pretty much relentless rising tide. At some point that has to falter and then we'll see what's what.

We might be far away from that year but I think it's going to build a better economy by next year up to that year and the next would be part of another great history for bitcoin's rise and fall.

Perhaps, the price will hit $40k in 2021, but in 2020, the price will start to rise step by step, and it's not increasing in a short time. But who knows that what we expected can happen in the next year.

We have the same concept in our minds that gradually it shall rise by next year to 2021.

[pooya87]

Nah, the halving was priced in in that run-up near $14k earlier this year. Once the halving comes and goes and the price is still below $10k, then the real disappointment will set in and we'll see massive sell-offs as people abandon bitcoin en masse. The run for the door is going to be as spectacular to watch as its rise has been. It'll wobble up and down as it continues the greater down trend it's been in, and is clear as day, for the last near 2 years. It might be able sustain an unstable price around $1k. $20k was utter insanity. $10k is pretty absurd.

you sound like kuwakduck (RIP) here

the run-up to $14k in my view was the result of the reverse-bubble burst which caused a big surge of money coming back in and shoot the price up. the $10k price is just the bare minimum after the recovery which should be acting as the launching price level for the next bull run.
halving will only be the catalyst that could possibly shorten the accumulation time needed before the next rising phase begins.

[BigBos]

I think there are so many people who expect halving, and most of them speculate that the price will exceed ATH bitcoin in 2017. This can be bad, and good when the results are out. however, I do not think that prices will be far to the moon. I was very grateful when the price was above $ 15k in 2020. But, in this case, I don't assume that the price of bitcoin can reach $ 55,000 without showing a positive trend at the beginning of the year to come.

[Lucius]

the run-up to $14k in my view was the result of the reverse-bubble burst which caused a big surge of money coming back in and shoot the price up.

One of the more sensible explanation for April 2019 pump, especially considering that some claim that it was actually Bakkt who caused it by buying 100k BTC for their service.

Since OP is just copy/pasted some info about halving the only thing worth commenting on is price after the last two halvings. There is no doubt that in both cases a rather large pump occurred, but only after a while, not instantaneously at halving time. The question that is worth billions of dollars is whether the story will repeat itself or this time it may take an unexpected turn?

Considering the past and present price, the next ATH could be at least x10 or x20 from the current price which brings us to the numbers close to $100k or maybe even $200k. But we also know that the correction will be brutal, and it can delete up to 90% of the maximum value.

[marcous]

Approximately every 4 years the reward that miners receive for finding a block, halves. This event is referred to as the “Bitcoin halving” and was hardcoded by Satoshi Nakamoto into the Bitcoin protocol to enforce its deflationary monetary policy.

In the 2020 Bitcoin halving mining rewards will drop from 12.5 Bitcoins per block, to 6.25 Bitcoins per block.

At the time of the 2020 halving, 18,375,000 Bitcoins will have been mined in total. That’s approximately 85% of the total Bitcoin supply.

What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140. Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

doesn't deny that Halving does affect prices, but many observers of the world crypto especially traders who previously felt the fluctuation of Bitcoin prices which rose dramatically felt it wouldn't be the same as 2017. due to the fact that Bitcoin prices are holding up with high prices only briefly, namely when the end of 2017 alone. If we back in 2018, still remember the price down so low.

[dark08]

I think there are so many people who expect halving, and most of them speculate that the price will exceed ATH bitcoin in 2017. This can be bad, and good when the results are out. however, I do not think that prices will be far to the moon. I was very grateful when the price was above $ 15k in 2020. But, in this case, I don't assume that the price of bitcoin can reach $ 55,000 without showing a positive trend at the beginning of the year to come.

I agree to you dude most people think that this coming halving bitcoin price will be spike so high like what happen on the previous halving but everything can be change in directionbecause bitcoin is a full of suprises its better tobe observant to avoid doing any mistake.

[smyslov]

The count down of the next halving scalability was almost there, https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ link shows, 182 days more to go.

Everyone waiting for the best result on this becoming promising event in bitcoin price, the next halving. But the real fact is no one knows the market situation is and it is an unpredictable price movement. Let's time can tell and will reveal the truth.

Thank you for sharing.

That's still many days to get as many Bitcoin as you can, majority of the people that's include me believe that there will be a major pump and we are 100% that there will going to be one, but people are predicting a very high price I'd like to be moderate and realistic I will be happy if it reaches $25000, but will be excited if it surpass my own prediction.

[gogoi]

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140.

It didn't happen until well into the following year.

I expect nothing much until 2021 myself but I'm more than willing to be surprised. I think this one will be significant in that inflation will finally fall below the average competently managed fiat currency and it'll gradually dawn on people that there really aren't that many more coins to come.

Good analysis. Similar to wait is laid out in the video as well. Price should trade sideways slightly up into $11,400 and the increase in price should not occur until 6-18 months after the halving. Of course this is only based off of the last two halving cycles we have to go off of but nevertheless the base case.

[beerlover]

Maybe on the other halving? I mean right now the cost of bitcoin is around 8 thousand dollars, I am not entirely sure how they calculate it because the cost is different everywhere depending on how much you spent on the rig as well but in the end we can say the minimum it could go is around 5-6 thousand dollars and the max is around 10 thousand if you have a horrible setup with a high electricity cost.

So, if you get it to halving how the hell could the cost make it go to $55k to $130k? It is not possible, even on the greatest of possibilities it is around 20 thousand dollars and that is a really high stretch. So all we have right now is $55k to $130k all because people hyped up the bitcoin halving way more than they should and we are predicting on that?

[jets567]

If the history repeat then we might pass the ATH of Bitcoin though its not guarantee because we still need more investment and demand for Bitcoin to push the price but I'm very postive that 2020 will bring a good year for crypto market that is why I keep holding my Bitcoin until the halving is finished.

[cryptoangel]

I think there are so many people who expect halving, and most of them speculate that the price will exceed ATH bitcoin in 2017. This can be bad, and good when the results are out. however, I do not think that prices will be far to the moon. I was very grateful when the price was above $ 15k in 2020. But, in this case, I don't assume that the price of bitcoin can reach $ 55,000 without showing a positive trend at the beginning of the year to come.

I agree to you dude most people think that this coming halving bitcoin price will be spike so high like what happen on the previous halving but everything can be change in directionbecause bitcoin is a full of suprises its better tobe observant to avoid doing any mistake.

Bitcoin is hard to predict the future direction so it make more surprise on every bull run. But it is volatile crypto currency so anytime it will raise and back to previous stage on future days. I think 2017 is the great year on crypto market so rapid hype was occur in the market and next year is unpredictable so wait and see what will happen on upcoming years.

[THX 1138]

Relaying a message:

Approximately every 4 years the reward that miners receive for finding a block, halves. This event is referred to as the “Bitcoin halving” and was hardcoded by Satoshi Nakamoto into the Bitcoin protocol to enforce its deflationary monetary policy.

[…]

What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?

[…]

This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

You mentioned in your video that some people think the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the coming May 14, 2020 halving. I’m one of the proponents of the theory that the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the May 14, 2020 halving event.

A fundamental causation for my posited re-acceleration hypothesis is because I have analyzed the possibility that the legacy Bitcoin protocol is being “readopted” (analogous to the moonshot in the BTC price when legacy was first adopted in before 2013 and misdirection of adoption onto the impostor Core “soft fork” protocol) as warned by the powers-that-be. And I find evidence of this posited BTC price re-acceleration in the charts and also in the recent actions of some whales (c.f. also the Trilema.com/Dao attacker and what Bakkt did). All of the cryptocosm value will be refocused into the legacy Bitcoin with the coming “poison pill” game theory defense mechanism of the one proof-of-work chain to rule them all.

Below I will discuss some of the evidence of re-acceleration I find in the charts. Click the images to go to their source.

Readers may also be interested in my blog: McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

Let’s start with your chart comparing the 4 year period prior to each of the 2 prior halving events and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event (3 cases total). Note the prior ATH of the current (i.e. top-most on your chart) case was nearer to the start of the four year period analogous to the prior (i.e. middle on your chart) case. Whereas, the final “over the cliff” drop to the bottom and the sudden and steep (i.e. more accelerated both in time and price) out that of that bottom for the current case is more similar to the first (i.e. bottom-most on your chart) case. Also notice for first (i.e. bottom-most) case that the rise in the price before the halving was not as great as for the prior (i.e. middle) case, but the rise after the halving was much more accelerated (both in time and price) for the first (i.e. bottom-most) case as compared to the prior (i.e. middle) case. Thus the BTC price rise after the halving for the current case should be more accelerated than the prior case:



Next let’s refer to your chart comparing the level of the price at each subsequent halving event and the length of the “reaccumulation” (sic) phase before each halving event. Note that the prior (i.e. middle on this chart) case had both a higher price at and longer “reaccumulation” before its succeeding halving event than the first (i.e. left-most on this chart) case. Given an even longer “reaccumulation” before its succeeding halving event for current (i.e. right-most on this chart) case compared to the prior case, the BTC price should be even higher before and right at the coming May 14, 2020 halving as compared to the prior case:



Let’s refer to the stock-to-flows (aka S/F) model below to see that the BTC price at the halving event in the prior case was 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price:



How much higher than the prior case should the price be at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event? Note in the charts below that the BTC price in your “accumulation” and “expansion” phases for the prior case were either below (at the same timing before the halving given by similar shade of green color) or at best only up to the S/F model price:







Whereas, the current case has already achieved 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price in this “accumulation” and “expansion” phase:



Thus we should expect the BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event to be accelerated 1.6 × 1.6 = 2.6 times the ~$8800 S/F model price at the coming halving event. Additionally the current case has even more “reaccumulation” time than the prior case to build an even higher BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event. Thus the price at the coming halving event could be 3 ­– 4 times $8800 or roughly $26 – $35k. Additionally, I’m positing double of (i.e. two times) those prices projections at the halving due to third-order derivative (i.e. the rate of increase in the acceleration) mathematical effects which I don’t want to attempt to explain now.

Another reason the BTC price can front run the S/F model price rise at the halving is because PlanB recently unveiled the model.

Note I think the anonymous PlanB might be an agent (or an unwitting tool) of the bastard global elite who created Bitcoin are organizing the SegWit attack. PlanB (or someone at Twitter and Medium) banned and censored me from commenting on his Twitter and Medium blogs because I was getting too close to revealing these truths. I posit he has released this model to cause the market to front run the model and thus help achieve their goal of a nosebleed, moonshot BTC before the halving so that the hashrate difficulty will be so high when they initiate the SegWit donations attack that the Core protocol fork-off chain will become so slow that perhaps only a new block found every week or month. To drive the Core protocol fork-off to ~$0 price and complete their objective of surreptitiously concentrating most of the BTC in their own hands.

Also your projection for the ATH price after the coming halving is much, much too low. As I explained above, there is a reacceleration tweening between the prior and first cases. In those cases, the ATH price reached 3 and 10 times the S/F model price. Given the S/F model price will be $104k in 2021, the peak ATH should be at least $300k – $1 million. And there is a front running acceleration, so that peak ATH price could be attained as early as the end of 2020 so that McAfee doesn’t have to eat his dick. C.f. also my blog: McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

The current state of the RSI is indicating a sudden rise in the price is imminent analogous to 2013 (not 2017) for the reasons I explained above:

https://twitter.com/davthewave/status/1195128691099160576

I thus expect the rise in the BTC price to mimic the entire year of 2013 from this point forward. A moonshot rise pre-halving, then a dip with the SegWit attack killing Core and focusing the cryptocosm on legacy Bitcoin, then legacy Bitcoin rising above $300k before the end of 2020.

I really thought that once the price had moved into late 4 figures and 5 figures the percentages of the moves would be radically lower. People would be excited by a couple of hundred bucks. Yet it can still lose or gain 30-40% in a single day just as it could when it was 2 figures.

I don't know what that means, it doesn't seem healthy to me, but the possibility for truly barking moves is still more than alive and kicking.

If we think in terms of market cap and just how thin these markets are then it still doesn't really require huge sums to make giant moves. I expected it to be past that by now but it hasn't changed. It looks like it needs another monstrous move up before it does start to behave in a less shitcoiny manner and even then it might need another one.

Plausible reasons:

• Refer to my above readoption and thus reacceleration theory (which I know you think is loony and conspiratorial).
• The IRS ruled that spending any amount of digital virtual currency is a taxable event, thus hopeless for Bitcoin being adopted more as a currency.
• Bitcoin is being prepped as a 666 global reserve currency, to be used by $billionaires only. The coming SegWit attack will kickoff and destroy all the minions who think they own some cryptocurrency but will soon find out they do not.
• "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." (i.e. acceleration or second derivatives):
  
  https://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-09-15/albert-bartlett-on-message-about-exponential-growth-to-the-end/
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI1C9DyIi_8
  
  With exponential growth, the lily pond can be 50% covered on the 29th day and on the morning of the 30th day, 100% covered with lilies.
  
  Just because we can’t “see” visually the fact that the price is about to soon obviously front run the halving, does not mean the front running isn’t glaringly obvious mathematically. The front running is very well developed already. Most of you just can’t “see” it so glaringly yet because your eyes are not visualizing math.

For the price objectives and timing over the next months until the Bitcoin halving event, I recently wrote in private email several days ago before the drop below $8600 and before LTC had dropped below $60:

IMPORTANT. MAKE SURE YOU READ THIS.

Strangely the fractal pattern at the current juncture for LTC/USD could be correlated to either early to mid Feb 2019 or Jan 10 2019. It appears LTC may be accelerating in time (but not in proportional price) compared to the prior fractal pattern earlier this year. So perhaps LTC will not decline below $60 again in 2019.

Whereas, BTC appears to not be accelerating in time but is accelerating in proportional price.

By proportional price, I mean compare the price rises from the prior $22 and $3102 bottoms as the difference in price from the bottom divided by the price drop from the cliff edge at $56 and $6550.

The calculation shows that LTC is 93% and BTC is 260% (2.6X) of the proportional price rises thus far compared to the prior fractal.

Thus I compute projected prices for LTC of $82, $116, and $158. And for BTC  three consecutive monthly highs of $13k, $21k, and $32k.

But those prices do not have to occur at the same time, especially not the $82.

It seems the only way to fulfill the 0.01 LTC/BTC target is for LTC/USD to hit $82 while BTC/USD drops to $8200. Then the $116 can occur with a rocket shot in BTC to $13k. I was expecting that rocket shot at start of February, but everything may be accelerating in time.

Recently @infofront cited a Twitter post that said the LTC miners are preparing to disconnect their machines and pumping the LTC price so they can get out and liquidate their mining equipment (and LTC) at the best prices. Apparently they expect BTC dominance to return soon and they want to cash out.

BTC/USD may decline to $8200 before end of November with LTC rising to $82 as the very short altcoin season bleeds BTC for a month only. Then BTC slowly rising to $9600 before end of 2019. Then a rocket shot to $13k on Armstrong’s ECM turn date in the start of January. With LTC rising to $116. Then $158 and $21k in February. In March BTC hits $32k and LTC and all altcoins are declining. In April BTC goes supernova to $50+k. My target for a spike high was $78k.

Let’s revisit what may end up being a very, very important blog, perhaps even more important than Plan B’s stock-to-flows model:

https://medium.com/@positivecrypto/the-golden-ratio-multiplier-c2567401e12a

Focus on this chart:



Interestingly at the recent $13.8k high, the ratio to the 350 DMA was 2.4. That places it between the red and purple lines. Which thus corresponds to a tweening between the peaks in Q3 2012 and Q3 2013. Whereas the corresponding peak in 2015 commensurately before the halving was only up to the green line, so current fractal pattern is not corresponding to the 5 multiplier. And if we do get a rocket shot into the May (actually late April) 2020 halving, then the chart is going to look very fractally similar to the 2013 rocket shot.

So this means (as I had posited previously) that the multiplier for the coming peak in late April 2020 should be between 8 and 13. The 350 DMA is currently $7k and will rise to greater than $10k. Even if the multiplier does decline to 3 as that blog posits, that is still going to be in excess of $30k for the peak. So perhaps my $32k will be the peak and perhaps the rocket shot to $13k will not begin until February 2020.

However, I assert that the legacy Bitcoin is being readopted, which will cause a stampede effect and thus a reversion to the 8 or perhaps 10 multiplier. Again 8 would place it near to my $78k expectation.

Also the above linked Medium blog gives a very useful metric for timing the ATH, when the 111 DMA crossed over 2 multiplied by the 350 DMA. We should remember to watch for that. So estimating now roughly when the 3.5 month average price is higher than somewhere above $20+k. So if we take my 3 consecutive month price estimates $13k, $21k, and $32k and presuming some acceleration along the way to average is weighted more towards the lower prices. Also those are peak prices, with dips in between. And the 350 DMA is likely to be higher than $10k. So a quick moon shot to $50+k in April after a dip from $32k in March, is within the realm of mathematical possibility.

$32k is the minimum for the ATH before May 2020, presuming my thesis is correct that the price will be pumped in advance of a posited SegWit attack at the halving.

Interestingly the 350 DMA should be ~8+k by early January, so a 1.6 multiplier would be $13k. By February should be $8.5+k thus 2 to 2.4 multiplier provides my $21k target (remember the tweening). By March $9 – $10k, so the 3 – 4 multiplier will provide my $32k target.

My current scenario after studying carefully the fractal pattern correlation. The current U-shaped correction appears to be roughly 71% of the duration of the prior one earlier this year.

BTC should bottom on this current retracement below $8500 by Nov. 24. The ideal target is $8200. LTC will retrace to somewhere between $57 and $60.

On ~Nov 24, a spike up for LTC and BTC to ~$70 and ~$8700. Then a decline over next several days to $60 – $64 and $8 – $8.4k. Then another spike up on ~Dec. 5 to ~$75 and $9.7k. Then a decline over next couple of days to ~$65 and ~$8.5k. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up for LTC coupled with a slow rise for BTC to ~$80 and $8.7k. Then slow rise by ~Dec. 22 to ~$83 and $8.9k.

Thus I see LTC/BTC reaching only a maximum of 0.0093, although perhaps 0.0098 is possible on some intraday spike divergence for LTC and BTC. I would probably sell LTC at $80 and thus 0.0092 is likely the best I could achieve. Given an entry at 0.0069, that would be a 33% gain in BTC, if repurchasing BTC immediately after selling LTC. Those who entered at 0.006 might get a 50% gain in BTC if they time it perfectly.

Another strategy might be to sell maybe half at $75 and then if LTC drops to $65 repurchase for a 15% gain, else (if LTC does not drop) purchase BTC for ~$8.5k (because it seems BTC must drop otherwise it can’t rise to $8.7k), so that is still a 27% gain in BTC is purchased LTC when LTC/BTC was 0.0069.

Frankly only a 33% potential gain (relative to BTC) is not all that incredibly enticing given the risk of the volatility of LTC. Timing may be end up elusive.

GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS

I did the same calculations for GRS and it’s about 3X leveraged in price compared to the prior fractal earlier this year. On ~Nov 24, GRS should rise to ~0.27 which if BTC is $8700, then GRS/BTC will be 0.000031. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up ~$0.48, and thus GRS/BTC 0.000055. So I think GRS/BTC has better leverage and can double your BTC, but you must have your sell limit orders waiting because the spikes can be completed in a couple of hours sometimes. A strategy would be to sell maybe half at $0.27 and attempt to reload at $0.23 or purchase BTC at $8700.

In this scenario, the rocket shot is timed perfectly with Armstrong’s monumental ECM turn date, so ~Jan 1, 2020, a rocket shot to ~$116 and ~$12.5k. That will be the last chance to trade LTC for BTC. BTC may have an intraday (or next day) spike low of $11k. So if you sold at say $110 and repurchased $11.5k, that would be 0.096, thus increasing potential BTC gains to 40% (if purchased when LTC/BTC is 0.0069) or 65% if entered when LTC/BTC was 0.006. But that’s going to be some chaotic timing. Hope the exchanges don’t get slammed.

In this scenario, during the rest of January LTC will decline to ~$86 and BTC will oscillate but reach a peak of $13k. I wonder if we will get another flash crash in late January to $10k this time, mimicking the flash crash in April 2019.

In this timing scenario, before Feb 12 (2020), BTC will spike up again to $21k. Within a week a decline to perhaps ~$17.3k. Then another rocket shot to ~$32k by ~March 2.

The market would be somewhat confused at this point because the ATH would have been significantly exceeded well before the halving. Thus I would expect some sort of deeper and slightly longer correction. Maybe back to $21k again to throw many off the train who are looking to repurchase below the 2017 $20k ATH before the halving currently targeted for May 14:

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

That and including the uncertainty about whether the price will indeed go higher than ~$32k before any SegWit attack is why I will probably take all the cash I am going to need at $32k, then perhaps repurchase half of what I sold if the price drops to say $21k before the halving. Also I will be keeping my eye on the 111 DMA vs. twice the 350 DMA as mentioned in my prior email. Such an extended decline might be necessary to keep that 111 DMA from prematurely crossing down under twice the 350 DMA.

So then in April suddenly a moonshot to $50+k. Again my target is $78k but I will reaccess at that time after looking at all factors including where is the 350 DMA at that juncture.

[Oceat]

If the history repeat then we might pass the ATH of Bitcoin though its not guarantee because we still need more investment and demand for Bitcoin to push the price but I'm very postive that 2020 will bring a good year for crypto market that is why I keep holding my Bitcoin until the halving is finished.

Everyone could predict their own price but nobody knows when and what is the actual price after halving because usually halving occur mostly in December or maybe in 2021 in December. This is how volatile and complicated the Bitcoin itself while nobody knows the exact date of that said $55,000 - $130,000. It's just too exaggerated to give a random numbers while the market price today is under $9,000.

[bL4nkcode]

That price is too steep, though it might happen but not on 2020, BTC value don't go high overnight if we will take a look back on after every halving. Even there's course it drops few days after the halving though not quite low. We should expect price will surge or might even decline 6-9 months after the halving.
But hoping it will not disappoint the community

[Duzter]

That price is too steep, though it might happen but not on 2020, BTC value don't go high overnight if we will take a look back on after every halving. Even there's course it drops few days after the halving though not quite low. We should expect price will surge or might even decline 6-9 months after the halving.
But hoping it will not disappoint the community

Every halving hasn't shown immediate growth with bitcoins followed by altcoins. From my view there will be growth as the past time, which is sure and beyond that I expect certain percentage of growth based on the adoption that has taken place all around in a short term. The decline doesn't go after 6-9 months, probably this starts immediately as whales prepare to panic the market and profit out of it.

[1Referee]

So, if you get it to halving how the hell could the cost make it go to $55k to $130k? It is not possible, even on the greatest of possibilities it is around 20 thousand dollars and that is a really high stretch. So all we have right now is $55k to $130k all because people hyped up the bitcoin halving way more than they should and we are predicting on that?

The price has always been front running the hashrate, which if given enough time, will come back closer to the actual cost of mining depending on the difficulty at that time. The bigger the difference between the cost of mining and the price, the more incentive miners have to sell and close that gap. It's literally a race to be the fastest seller within the mining space.

Hashrate is lagging behind the price development up to six months depending on how willing Bitmain & Co are to send out the purchased hardware. That's why the hashrate can keep going up while the price has been going down for a good while. In case there is no price recovery, that hashrate will be withdrawn again, which is what we witnessed in 2018. I'm pretty sure that people still remember the fud about a looming death spiral.

[darkangel11]

That price is too steep, though it might happen but not on 2020, BTC value don't go high overnight if we will take a look back on after every halving. Even there's course it drops few days after the halving though not quite low. We should expect price will surge or might even decline 6-9 months after the halving.
But hoping it will not disappoint the community

55k is definitely not too high if you look at the history of Bitcoin. Even 100k is not too high.
In 2017 we went from 900 to 20k in a year. When we broke previous ATH we went times 20! Breaking 20k would take us to 200k if it happens again. I know we can't compare because it takes a lot more money to reach those levels but when we were below 1 k people were talking about the 2013 bull market and saying the same thing that we went from 300 to 1000 in a month but a 3x rise from ATH won't happen because it's a lot of money. Do you even remember today what people were saying when we were going through 3k? No? I don't remember it too because it was so fast.

[aardvark15]

At the halving g I predict the price will be around $20,000. Over the course of the next year after the halving, I predict that the price will rise to greater than $100,000.

[boltz]

If this price happens then we will all dance like crazy and I hope we gonna trow a bitcoin party on every local boards in order to celebrate this milestone! Bitcoin halv will not trigger that huge bull run tho but it will fuel it with necessary to burst over 40k$ for sure and from then anything can happen as we can stabilize around 50-60k$ or we can go over 100k$ in a moment! Some says that in 2023 Bitcoin will be 200k$ and my friends thinks as well and so far they predicted the price quite nicely.

[barabarian1]

if bitcoin has the same cycle as 2012 and 2016 then of course in 2020 bitcoin might be able to reach a new ATH of $ 100,000. of course all bitcoin holders and users expect bitcoin to get to the moon in 2020 after dividing in May.
I also hope that the price of bitcoin will be bull but I don't expect it to be too high. because if I expect too high then I will be disappointed our price I expect does not match reality. I speculate the price of bitcoin to $ 30,000 after halving. if later the price of bitcoin can be higher, of course I am very grateful.

[pooya87]

the run-up to $14k in my view was the result of the reverse-bubble burst which caused a big surge of money coming back in and shoot the price up.

One of the more sensible explanation for April 2019 pump, especially considering that some claim that it was actually Bakkt who caused it by buying 100k BTC for their service.

Since OP is just copy/pasted some info about halving the only thing worth commenting on is price after the last two halvings. There is no doubt that in both cases a rather large pump occurred, but only after a while, not instantaneously at halving time. The question that is worth billions of dollars is whether the story will repeat itself or this time it may take an unexpected turn?

Considering the past and present price, the next ATH could be at least x10 or x20 from the current price which brings us to the numbers close to $100k or maybe even $200k. But we also know that the correction will be brutal, and it can delete up to 90% of the maximum value.

i believe that the more we move forward as the market size grows, the less drastic the big swings are going to be. meaning both rises and falls are going to happen in a more reasonable percentages. it is about more adoption and more packed order books that makes it so that when a big buy or a sell take place the price wouldn't jump up or down 30%!
so with that logic this upcoming rally price should go up to about $300k since last time price went up from $150 (the bottom) to $19900 which is 13166%. with the current bottom being $3200 that means reaching $424,512 which if it becomes smaller we should reach $300k instead

[bitvalak]

It's hard to predict numbers, which is clear there will always be interesting surprises after halving occurs.
It takes 4-8 months after halving the surprise will be seen. The current price I think is still very reasonable to buy.

[samuraijin]

The count down of the next halving scalability was almost there, https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ link shows, 182 days more to go.

Everyone waiting for the best result on this becoming promising event in bitcoin price, the next halving. But the real fact is no one knows the market situation is and it is an unpredictable price movement. Let's time can tell and will reveal the truth.

Thank you for sharing.

180 days from now let big investors catch a lot of small traders who sell cheap bitcoin at this time, I think they are still playing until now to catch cheap bitcoin before halving happens, so I just sit smoking cigarettes to see price movements at the end of this year too , will they continue to play with current prices pushing lower or vice versa? all waiting for that

[error08]

There is no doubt about bitcoin price will be skyrocket once again after the halving, and seeing some prediction where the price might be headed makes people excited about it.
Even the last ATH is a big number for a digital currency, we have witnessed a miracle but it will be repeated again in 2020.
There is nothing rational to do except stockpiling more bitcoin into your wallet before it gets too expensive for us and people will complain and regret didn't buy it when it below $10K.

[daarul50]

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140. Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

the problem is :

in 2012 and 2016 halving, people still put a lot of doubts in bitcoin saying bitcoin will have zero value, majority did not believe that bitcoin will be worthy in the future and then the price skyrocketed, proven they all wrong.
nowadays majority so over confident about the upcoming bitcoin halving making speculation it will worth 5 to 20times from the current price , guess what should happen? the price fall down , prove the majority wrong?

a little bit confusing , i just don't want to act over confidently , it was never safe for your health  

[Lucius]

so with that logic this upcoming rally price should go up to about $300k since last time price went up from $150 (the bottom) to $19900 which is 13166%. with the current bottom being $3200 that means reaching $424,512 which if it becomes smaller we should reach $300k instead

Personally, I'm also thinking in that direction, some things have to change, but it will take time to reach price stability. We can see how easy it is to pump or bring down the price, the market is still very small, and the total MC is just some $150 billion, which is a very insignificant figure compared to the gold or the stock market.

I have nothing against your logic, $300k would be impressive, and even half of it would be an incredible amount. But I always ask myself who or what will drive the next big pump, where the money will come from, will ordinary small investors get caught up in the FOMO trap again?

[Inkdatar]

It's hard to predict numbers, which is clear there will always be interesting surprises after halving occurs.
It takes 4-8 months after halving the surprise will be seen. The current price I think is still very reasonable to buy.

The predicted price above is really high, and indeed we cannot foretell and difficult to judge this early if what price could reach when there is halving to happen. The good thing to do for some is to accumulate btc who knows price possibly could pump again. It is good for us who truly waits for bitcoin predicted price above to reach of course many users could benefit this skyrocket in the market.

[pixie85]

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140. Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

the problem is :

in 2012 and 2016 halving, people still put a lot of doubts in bitcoin saying bitcoin will have zero value, majority did not believe that bitcoin will be worthy in the future and then the price skyrocketed, proven they all wrong.
nowadays majority so over confident about the upcoming bitcoin halving making speculation it will worth 5 to 20times from the current price , guess what should happen? the price fall down , prove the majority wrong?

a little bit confusing , i just don't want to act over confidently , it was never safe for your health  

The price has no mind of its own and it doesn't want to do anything or prove anyone wrong. People see the halving as a catalyst for growth because of math.
If the reward gets halved the value of new coins will have to double.

Even if the price of the existing coins will not miners won't sell new coins for 8k USD but will want to make some money mining them and wait until the price is at least 16k. This will create a shortage of supply and those who decide to buy will have to buy from holders not from miners.

[Hamphser]

It's hard to predict numbers, which is clear there will always be interesting surprises after halving occurs.
It takes 4-8 months after halving the surprise will be seen. The current price I think is still very reasonable to buy.

The predicted price above is really high, and indeed we cannot foretell and difficult to judge this early if what price could reach when there is halving to happen. The good thing to do for some is to accumulate btc who knows price possibly could pump again. It is good for us who truly waits for bitcoin predicted price above to reach of course many users could benefit this skyrocket in the market.

I'm not do sure if after the halving there would be a price hike after that because if you look at the previous halving it takes more than a month or a year before the bitcoin skyrocketed. So that being said, the price that OP predicted was way too much if he only think it would happen in just a single day. The price of bitcoin need to walk a thousand miles first before it could actually grow to what others have expected.

[Wexlike]

It's hard to predict numbers, which is clear there will always be interesting surprises after halving occurs.
It takes 4-8 months after halving the surprise will be seen. The current price I think is still very reasonable to buy.

The predicted price above is really high, and indeed we cannot foretell and difficult to judge this early if what price could reach when there is halving to happen. The good thing to do for some is to accumulate btc who knows price possibly could pump again. It is good for us who truly waits for bitcoin predicted price above to reach of course many users could benefit this skyrocket in the market.

I'm not do sure if after the halving there would be a price hike after that because if you look at the previous halving it takes more than a month or a year before the bitcoin skyrocketed. So that being said, the price that OP predicted was way too much if he only think it would happen in just a single day. The price of bitcoin need to walk a thousand miles first before it could actually grow to what others have expected.

Is anyone still doubting that the 7.5 to 10k spike was a wrong direction squeeze?

Short and long squeezes happen simply as a result of an over-leveraged market. Both right-direction (short squeeze in bull market / long squeeze in bear market) and wrong-direction (short squeeze in bear marke / long squeeze in bull market) are probably about equally likely to occur.

Most people get caught up in the direction of the squeeze as an indicator: "It's going up because the shorts are being punished for being wrong". This leads them to believe the correct direction going forward must be whatever direction the squeeze was in, as if the truth finally came out. But the squeeze itself holds little truth to it.

[veleten]

halving does impact the price growth , but it is not a switch-like increase
i.e. the price growth is usually delayed and you can't really say that 500 to 20.000$ growth was due to halving since the events were very far away on the time scale , over 7 months in total
I think that 10-20x increase potential is very real , although the figures could be way less due to the high base value this time
if we start from 7-8.000$ price , we could get to 25-30.000$ after the halving, but the figures like 55-130.000$ while possible
are not too realistic at the moment , but if BAKKT increases volumes and there are more positive contributing factors and faster adoption ,  we could see 100.000$ easily
the problem how sustainable that  level would be and I don't want to see the 10-20k dollars daily price swings if it happens

[buwaytress]

I got a bit lost to be honest after readoption and reacceleration. Probably true to some extent in past halvings but surely by now, anyone remotely interested in investment, money, bitcoin or gold, would already have known about May 2020 a long time ago. Unlike past halvings, this one is probably the most talked about, most anticipated, and most hyped.

It seems to be expectations will fail to deliver when it comes to Bitcoin price! Not to say there won't be an effect, but to me, that's come into play already.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

The count down of the next halving scalability was almost there, https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ link shows, 182 days more to go.

I happened to look up when exactly the next halving is taking place before seeing your post, but thanks for posting the info.  People are talking about it a lot here, but they usually don't mention the exact date.

Can't argue that price increases have happened after the last two halvenings, but I'm skeptical as to whether we're going to see another huge bull run come next May.  I've always thought that these should be priced in well beforehand, and I'm not sure that they aren't.  I remember writing that in quite a few threads back in 2016, and noticing that nothing really extraordinary happened immediately after the halving.  The huge run-up in price only started to happen at the start of 2017, and in my mind it's questionable as to whether this was due to the halving, which was in July 2016.

I'm not trying to downplay the importance of this, and I do hope bitcoin sees some upward momentum next year--but I'm not hoping for a repeat of 2017 which saw bitcoin get to levels that weren't sustainable.  If the halving produces that kind of bubble, I could do without it.  Slow and steady gains are much, much better.

[Febo]

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140. Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

But the $20000 Bitcoins happened 1.5 years after halving. One and half year is a lot of time.If price changed a bit a week latter it was far from $20000.  Problem I see people are making FOMO about halving and dont even mention this fact. Noobs then believe 2019 will be new 2017. I hope there are not that many that believe this will happen in short 6 weeks.

[rdluffy]

You guys make some count looking the past and you think 1 to 10 is equal to 10 to 100, but it's not

After halvings, BTC done a good job and got pumped, but in the past, this is not a guaratee of future
And it's not that easy to jump to this price you're saying, 55k or 130k looks impossible in a near future, it needs a lot of money, not only charts from the past

[LordShanken]

I wonder if the price increase will occur after halving or before? So far, the price increase has always after, but it would not be a surprise to me if this time whales did something different and pump the price before and later dropped it. What do you think guys?
About the level that can rise, for sure between $50k - $100k

[veleten]

I wonder if the price increase will occur after halving or before? So far, the price increase has always after, but it would not be a surprise to me if this time whales did something different and pump the price before and later dropped it. What do you think guys?
About the level that can rise, for sure between $50k - $100k

the increase everybody is lookinb for , the one with hundreds percents in it usually happens after the halving
but it could as well start rising before the halving too , just not as much
there is no guarantee , historical data is a good source of information , but things could go very differently
any scenario could happen , for example big news before the halvening and the price goes through the roof and then corrected and goes down and so on

[Clement Kaliyar]

But the $20000 Bitcoins happened 1.5 years after halving. One and half year is a lot of time.If price changed a bit a week latter it was far from $20000.  Problem I see people are making FOMO about halving and dont even mention this fact. Noobs then believe 2019 will be new 2017. I hope there are not that many that believe this will happen in short 6 weeks.

Everyone is looking for a pump and so is the reason everyone is having their charts and prediction but none of these will be far from the truth, every market will rise eventually but you cannot expect that to happen every couple of years, many countries are planning to regulate the market and who know what all restrictions we will be facing in the future, i hope the market will rally once again but i am not expecting the steep rise we had in 2017.

[THX 1138]

Relaying a message:

It's just too exaggerated to give a random numbers while the market price today is under $9,000.

McAfee’s Dick Math may be based on point-set topology. Also re-read the lengthy post I made in this thread.

The legacy BTC price is likely going to $1 million in 2020, but I posit the official Bitcoin Core (which is actually an impostor) is going towards ~$0 after the SegWit “anyone can spend” donations to the miners attack at the May 2020 halving event if Craig Wright fulfills his Long-term advance notice. Craig is indeed a fake Satoshi and his BSV is probably a red-herring, but his warning is probably reality. Read the linked threads entirely to learn why.

55k is definitely not too high if you look at the history of Bitcoin. Even 100k is not too high.
In 2017 we went from 900 to 20k in a year. When we broke previous ATH we went times 20! Breaking 20k would take us to 200k if it happens again. I know we can't compare because it takes a lot more money to reach those levels but when we were below 1 k people were talking about the 2013 bull market and saying the same thing that we went from 300 to 1000 in a month but a 3x rise from ATH won't happen because it's a lot of money. Do you even remember today what people were saying when we were going through 3k? No? I don't remember it too because it was so fast.

Everyone forgets, incorrectly thinks Bitcoin’s price is decelerating, and gets lulled to sleep. Here is a mathematical model of what you are referring to:

McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

i believe that the more we move forward as the market size grows, the less drastic the big swings are going to be. meaning both rises and falls are going to happen in a more reasonable percentages. it is about more adoption and more packed order books that makes it so that when a big buy or a sell take place the price wouldn't jump up or down 30%!
so with that logic this upcoming rally price should go up to about $300k since last time price went up from $150 (the bottom) to $19900 which is 13166%. with the current bottom being $3200 that means reaching $424,512 which if it becomes smaller we should reach $300k instead

Everyone seems to think Bitcoin is decelerating, but it’s actually accelerating. My theory as to why is because of the upcoming readoption of legacy Bitcoin and the destruction of the Bitcoin Core imposter soft-fork, thus focusing wealth as most people are kicked off of Bitcoin and their BTC is donated to the miners. Whales never sell, thus the liquid float will decrease. Everyone seems to think Bitcoin needs to scale transaction volume, but I posit that was never the intended purpose of Bitcoin when the global elite created it.

My (and apparently McAfee’s) theory is you are being deceived by mismatching your comparisons of peaks from different topological sets. See the above link to McAfee’s Dick Math.

Your $300k is also my lowest level target for 2020. But $1+ million may be more likely if you believe the (unpublished) math McAfee claims.

in 2012 and 2016 halving, people still put a lot of doubts in bitcoin saying bitcoin will have zero value, majority did not believe that bitcoin will be worthy in the future and then the price skyrocketed, proven they all wrong.
nowadays majority so over confident about the upcoming bitcoin halving making speculation it will worth 5 to 20times from the current price , guess what should happen? the price fall down , prove the majority wrong?

Instead I posit that everyone will be destroyed by the SegWit attack at the halving and then the price will go much, much higher than anyone expects. But this attack is going to hoist huge income taxes on everyone due to the free airdrop of the Core tokens when it is forced to hard fork-off.

The majority is always wrong, but never in exactly the same way. New tricks are the up the sleeves of our slave masters who created the 666 Bitcoin.

[Wexlike]

But the $20000 Bitcoins happened 1.5 years after halving. One and half year is a lot of time.If price changed a bit a week latter it was far from $20000.  Problem I see people are making FOMO about halving and dont even mention this fact. Noobs then believe 2019 will be new 2017. I hope there are not that many that believe this will happen in short 6 weeks.

Everyone is looking for a pump and so is the reason everyone is having their charts and prediction but none of these will be far from the truth, every market will rise eventually but you cannot expect that to happen every couple of years, many countries are planning to regulate the market and who know what all restrictions we will be facing in the future, i hope the market will rally once again but i am not expecting the steep rise we had in 2017.

Oh come on, are you basically saying China will ban Bitcoin again ?  I'm way more curious how the internet shutdown of Iran might affect all Bitcoin enthusiasts in that country.

[blckhawk]

That price is quite feasible to believe than other predictions, although we're still not sure. Another thing to note is that the bubble won't happen immediately after the halving, but rather several months after it happened. As of now, the price steadily hovers around 8k$ and even though it might experience dumps, I'm not that worried and still anticipate for the guaranteed price uptrend.

[tbterryboy]

I expect so much positivity from this next halving and do you know why? Having studied how halving has affected the value of bitcoin positively for two consecutive period now, I am sure that many people would have been convinced now that they next having will surely make the same positive impact on the value of bitcoin, and that event is what people would not like to miss out at all as many of the old and new investor will start rushing to buy bitcoin at any slight opportunity they get to buy at cheaper rate starting form next year after the new year celebration.

From this action alone, I expect the value of bitcoin to cross over the last all time high prior to when the having will occur and shortly after the halving, I also expect that the value will surge to almost 2x of the last all time high also.

[Taskford]

That price is quite feasible to believe than other predictions, although we're still not sure. Another thing to note is that the bubble won't happen immediately after the halving, but rather several months after it happened. As of now, the price steadily hovers around 8k$ and even though it might experience dumps, I'm not that worried and still anticipate for the guaranteed price uptrend.

In my opinion it normally happens since  there are so many factors that we needed consider by now and although we  are experiencing the stable price at   8k$ or maybe we can see a more dump to 7k$ but most provably we can see a price change when the halving nearly comes although it's not a guaranteed speculation since this is all talk but we try to see the halving history and  how it works provably we will get a positive outputs on what great opportunity  for holders to come next year.

[Wysi]

That price is quite feasible to believe than other predictions, although we're still not sure. Another thing to note is that the bubble won't happen immediately after the halving, but rather several months after it happened. As of now, the price steadily hovers around 8k$ and even though it might experience dumps, I'm not that worried and still anticipate for the guaranteed price uptrend.

If we look at the past yes there had been pump post halving but right now it's not the same situation because we have not experienced any major dump in a while and market is somewhat stable except fluctuations of couple of hundred dollars in a while, which is a good sign for sure but we need to be prepared to cope up with the situation even if the value does not pump post halving instead of panic selling. Even I personally feel that the value will increase as its been a while since we have a major pump.

[akmal1984]

I wonder if the price increase will occur after halving or before? So far, the price increase has always after, but it would not be a surprise to me if this time whales did something different and pump the price before and later dropped it. What do you think guys?
About the level that can rise, for sure between $50k - $100k

I think the price increase will still occur after halving.If it happened before maybe the case for hardfork huh.However, I don't see bitcoin going to 50k usd after halving.You may know now that crypto prices are pressured by regulation.It is likely that bitcoin will only be at 20k usd after halving

[bitbunnny]

But the $20000 Bitcoins happened 1.5 years after halving. One and half year is a lot of time.If price changed a bit a week latter it was far from $20000.  Problem I see people are making FOMO about halving and dont even mention this fact. Noobs then believe 2019 will be new 2017. I hope there are not that many that believe this will happen in short 6 weeks.

Everyone is looking for a pump and so is the reason everyone is having their charts and prediction but none of these will be far from the truth, every market will rise eventually but you cannot expect that to happen every couple of years, many countries are planning to regulate the market and who know what all restrictions we will be facing in the future, i hope the market will rally once again but i am not expecting the steep rise we had in 2017.

Oh come on, are you basically saying China will ban Bitcoin again ?  I'm way more curious how the internet shutdown of Iran might affect all Bitcoin enthusiasts in that country.

No, China will not ban Bitcoin  no matter what some say and the situation in Iran might get complicated although I beleive that Bitcoin enthusiasts will find their way.
Regarding the price rise expectations are not real and far exaggerated as always but it's nice to see that people are optimists. However, many of them will end in bitter disappointment.

[AliMan]

That price is quite feasible to believe than other predictions, although we're still not sure. Another thing to note is that the bubble won't happen immediately after the halving, but rather several months after it happened. As of now, the price steadily hovers around 8k$ and even though it might experience dumps, I'm not that worried and still anticipate for the guaranteed price uptrend.

In my opinion it normally happens since  there are so many factors that we needed consider by now and although we  are experiencing the stable price at   8k$ or maybe we can see a more dump to 7k$ but most provably we can see a price change when the halving nearly comes although it's not a guaranteed speculation since this is all talk but we try to see the halving history and  how it works provably we will get a positive outputs on what great opportunity  for holders to come next year.

There's no problem with talking in brilliant expectations with speculative projections, but the reality will disappoint us when it doesn't take place. Once halving will occur randomly, all potential price predictions will likely be going to happen because the volatile market always changes in an unpredictable trend. That would be unstoppable when green days happened for cryptocurrency. Always stay focus on monitoring, don't listen to FUD, since it was pulling us down towards regrets when we try to catch their deceptive ideas.

[Lanatsa]

But the $20000 Bitcoins happened 1.5 years after halving. One and half year is a lot of time.If price changed a bit a week latter it was far from $20000.  Problem I see people are making FOMO about halving and dont even mention this fact. Noobs then believe 2019 will be new 2017. I hope there are not that many that believe this will happen in short 6 weeks.

Everyone is looking for a pump and so is the reason everyone is having their charts and prediction but none of these will be far from the truth, every market will rise eventually but you cannot expect that to happen every couple of years, many countries are planning to regulate the market and who know what all restrictions we will be facing in the future, i hope the market will rally once again but i am not expecting the steep rise we had in 2017.

Oh come on, are you basically saying China will ban Bitcoin again ?  I'm way more curious how the internet shutdown of Iran might affect all Bitcoin enthusiasts in that country.

No, China will not ban Bitcoin  no matter what some say and the situation in Iran might get complicated although I beleive that Bitcoin enthusiasts will find their way.
Regarding the price rise expectations are not real and far exaggerated as always but it's nice to see that people are optimists. However, many of them will end in bitter disappointment.

Sometimes seeing those too much optimism towards btc prices are already irritating imho. They don't even consider on putting up speculations on reaching or breaking
the previous ATH's first before going to those hundred of thousands when it comes to price.

Im not really that negative towards price but we should really be realistic because too much hope will just really give out deeper disappointment.

[alyssa85]

The rule of the market is generally "buy on the rumour, sell on the news" or "buy in anticipation, sell on confirmation".

So there might be a price rise in the run up to the halvening (see the price rise that happened just before the litecoin halvening in August), and then a sell-off as it happens.

Complicating things is that there are some unhappy people out there who bought when bitcoin was at the all-time high of around $18,000 - $20,000. If they see the price approach that again they will rush to sell "to get their money back" and relieve the mental pain they've had all this time due to their current loss. So we might see another sell-off as bitcoin approaches $20,000 again.

[el kaka22]

Why do people really make these insane claims without really thinking about what will happen in the next few thousands? Like we are not even at 10 thousand dollars right now and everyone is talking about how the bitcoin price is this and that and so forth and focus on the 6+ month period and more importantly talk about the 50k+ prices and 250k+ prices and all the other weird stuff instead of talking about the prices of when will it be 12k or 15k.

I understand people want to get rich quick and when it reaches 55k to 130k some people will be really rich so everyone wants to talk about that so that people would actually believe it and work for it but the reality is that there are not that many chances of bitcoin not stopping on the way to those prices for a long time, so we should focus on the earlier spikes instead of those insane highs.

[Dart18]

Yeah but that 20k is not the real deal right?
I very much would like to make those predictions happen but there is just too many doubts by now.
They also consider the whales faking the dump and pump and just manipulate it the other way around. Vice versa of what happened the last halving and the other.

Also, consider the large amount of FUD that is being spread.
How about the news of Google being the bitcoin killer.

[barota]

yes i think your predection are logic ; and prices bitcoin have a good chance for reach 130000 usd per btc as new high price . halving have lot of thing that help prices for rise like thos positive thing decrease reward mining to half
so for this reason prices can stable eaisly above 55000 usd per btc always

[Visbay]

Yeah but that 20k is not the real deal right?
I very much would like to make those predictions happen but there is just too many doubts by now.
They also consider the whales faking the dump and pump and just manipulate it the other way around. Vice versa of what happened the last halving and the other.

Also, consider the large amount of FUD that is being spread.
How about the news of Google being the bitcoin killer.

Yes having this much increase is price looks doubtful to me but who knows what Will happen next I think we all should cross our fingers and pray about the increase in price faster. Gradually we are improving allot and this much rise will take so long as you said whales are all ready to make a disturbance in the market with huge purchasing or huge selling we only can hope for the best.

[LordShanken]

Recently, I have read the statements of some analyst who say that in the case of the upcoming halving it can be completely different. This means that there does not have to be a price increase, but another bear market. All because the hashrate falls and many miners turn off their mining rigs. When the reward will be halved, hashrate may fall even more and the market may collapse.

[Wilhelm]

OP price prediction is close to my guess. I would believe between $50k and $70k with a short burst to an insane ATH.

[kapalmabur]

OP price prediction is close to my guess. I would believe between $50k and $70k with a short burst to an insane ATH.

now also the price of bitcoin has fallen sharply to $ 7900, this is the last support if we look, I believe bitcoin can reach $ 50000, but we have to get through this,
if the price of bitcoin is now down again, I don't think it will be reached, we just look and observe the movements of bitcoin this time

[Wilhelm]

OP price prediction is close to my guess. I would believe between $50k and $70k with a short burst to an insane ATH.

now also the price of bitcoin has fallen sharply to $ 7900, this is the last support if we look, I believe bitcoin can reach $ 50000, but we have to get through this,
if the price of bitcoin is now down again, I don't think it will be reached, we just look and observe the movements of bitcoin this time

Remind yourself that the halving has always been the lowest point on the exponential curve.
So once the halving passes the fun will begin. 

[Wilhelm]

Bitcoin holders will surely smile after halving because history always repeat itself so shall it be come 2020. But my major concern now is that will the impact of halving on Bitcoin influence other altcoins like ethereum, Bitcoin Cash? Or one should convert altcoins to Bitcoin before the event.

My experience is that Bitcoin usually takes the lead and a select few altcoins follow.
Once close the the Bitcoin ATH it will be much harder to buy or sell Bitcoin. Then people resort to altcoins that will remain increasing.
Then the collapse happens and everyone gets the hammer.

Play your altcoin purchases right and you can make a higher percentage of profit. However your risk profile is way higher so get off the train in time.

[gogoi]

Relaying a message:

Approximately every 4 years the reward that miners receive for finding a block, halves. This event is referred to as the “Bitcoin halving” and was hardcoded by Satoshi Nakamoto into the Bitcoin protocol to enforce its deflationary monetary policy.

[…]

What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?

[…]

This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

You mentioned in your video that some people think the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the coming May 14, 2020 halving. I’m one of the proponents of the theory that the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the May 14, 2020 halving event.

A fundamental causation for my posited re-acceleration hypothesis is because I have analyzed the possibility that the legacy Bitcoin protocol is being “readopted” (analogous to the moonshot in the BTC price when legacy was first adopted in before 2013 and misdirection of adoption onto the impostor Core “soft fork” protocol) as warned by the powers-that-be. And I find evidence of this posited BTC price re-acceleration in the charts and also in the recent actions of some whales (c.f. also the Trilema.com/Dao attacker and what Bakkt did). All of the cryptocosm value will be refocused into the legacy Bitcoin with the coming “poison pill” game theory defense mechanism of the one proof-of-work chain to rule them all.

Below I will discuss some of the evidence of re-acceleration I find in the charts. Click the images to go to their source.

Readers may also be interested in my blog: McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

Let’s start with your chart comparing the 4 year period prior to each of the 2 prior halving events and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event (3 cases total). Note the prior ATH of the current (i.e. top-most on your chart) case was nearer to the start of the four year period analogous to the prior (i.e. middle on your chart) case. Whereas, the final “over the cliff” drop to the bottom and the sudden and steep (i.e. more accelerated both in time and price) out that of that bottom for the current case is more similar to the first (i.e. bottom-most on your chart) case. Also notice for first (i.e. bottom-most) case that the rise in the price before the halving was not as great as for the prior (i.e. middle) case, but the rise after the halving was much more accelerated (both in time and price) for the first (i.e. bottom-most) case as compared to the prior (i.e. middle) case. Thus the BTC price rise after the halving for the current case should be more accelerated than the prior case:



Next let’s refer to your chart comparing the level of the price at each subsequent halving event and the length of the “reaccumulation” (sic) phase before each halving event. Note that the prior (i.e. middle on this chart) case had both a higher price at and longer “reaccumulation” before its succeeding halving event than the first (i.e. left-most on this chart) case. Given an even longer “reaccumulation” before its succeeding halving event for current (i.e. right-most on this chart) case compared to the prior case, the BTC price should be even higher before and right at the coming May 14, 2020 halving as compared to the prior case:



Let’s refer to the stock-to-flows (aka S/F) model below to see that the BTC price at the halving event in the prior case was 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price:



How much higher than the prior case should the price be at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event? Note in the charts below that the BTC price in your “accumulation” and “expansion” phases for the prior case were either below (at the same timing before the halving given by similar shade of green color) or at best only up to the S/F model price:

6Qo.png[/img]

Whereas, the current case has already achieved 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price in this “accumulation” and “expansion” phase:



Thus we should expect the BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event to be accelerated 1.6 × 1.6 = 2.6 times the ~$8800 S/F model price at the coming halving event. Additionally the current case has even more “reaccumulation” time than the prior case to build an even higher BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event. Thus the price at the coming halving event could be 3 ­– 4 times $8800 or roughly $26 – $35k. Additionally, I’m positing double of (i.e. two times) those prices projections at the halving due to third-order derivative (i.e. the rate of increase in the acceleration) mathematical effects which I don’t want to attempt to explain now.

Another reason the BTC price can front run the S/F model price rise at the halving is because PlanB recently unveiled the model.

Note I think the anonymous PlanB might be an agent (or an unwitting tool) of the bastard global elite who created Bitcoin are organizing the SegWit attack. PlanB (or someone at Twitter and Medium) banned and censored me from commenting on his Twitter and Medium blogs because I was getting too close to revealing these truths. I posit he has released this model to cause the market to front run the model and thus help achieve their goal of a nosebleed, moonshot BTC before the halving so that the hashrate difficulty will be so high when they initiate the SegWit donations attack that the Core protocol fork-off chain will become so slow that perhaps only a new block found every week or month. To drive the Core protocol fork-off to ~$0 price and complete their objective of surreptitiously concentrating most of the BTC in their own hands.

Also your projection for the ATH price after the coming halving is much, much too low. As I explained above, there is a reacceleration tweening between the prior and first cases. In those cases, the ATH price reached 3 and 10 times the S/F model price. Given the S/F model price will be $104k in 2021, the peak ATH should be at least $300k – $1 million. And there is a front running acceleration, so that peak ATH price could be attained as early as the end of 2020 so that McAfee doesn’t have to eat his dick. C.f. also my blog: McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

The current state of the RSI is indicating a sudden rise in the price is imminent analogous to 2013 (not 2017) for the reasons I explained above:

https://twitter.com/davthewave/status/1195128691099160576

I thus expect the rise in the BTC price to mimic the entire year of 2013 from this point forward. A moonshot rise pre-halving, then a dip with the SegWit attack killing Core and focusing the cryptocosm on legacy Bitcoin, then legacy Bitcoin rising above $300k before the end of 2020.

I really thought that once the price had moved into late 4 figures and 5 figures the percentages of the moves would be radically lower. People would be excited by a couple of hundred bucks. Yet it can still lose or gain 30-40% in a single day just as it could when it was 2 figures.

I don't know what that means, it doesn't seem healthy to me, but the possibility for truly barking moves is still more than alive and kicking.

If we think in terms of market cap and just how thin these markets are then it still doesn't really require huge sums to make giant moves. I expected it to be past that by now but it hasn't changed. It looks like it needs another monstrous move up before it does start to behave in a less shitcoiny manner and even then it might need another one.

Plausible reasons:

• Refer to my above readoption and thus reacceleration theory (which I know you think is loony and conspiratorial).
• The IRS ruled that spending any amount of digital virtual currency is a taxable event, thus hopeless for Bitcoin being adopted more as a currency.
• Bitcoin is being prepped as a 666 global reserve currency, to be used by $billionaires only. The coming SegWit attack will kickoff and destroy all the minions who think they own some cryptocurrency but will soon find out they do not.
• "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." (i.e. acceleration or second derivatives):
  
  https://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-09-15/albert-bartlett-on-message-about-exponential-growth-to-the-end/
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI1C9DyIi_8
  
  With exponential growth, the lily pond can be 50% covered on the 29th day and on the morning of the 30th day, 100% covered with lilies.
  
  Just because we can’t “see” visually the fact that the price is about to soon obviously front run the halving, does not mean the front running isn’t glaringly obvious mathematically. The front running is very well developed already. Most of you just can’t “see” it so glaringly yet because your eyes are not visualizing math.

For the price objectives and timing over the next months until the Bitcoin halving event, I recently wrote in private email several days ago before the drop below $8600 and before LTC had dropped below $60:

IMPORTANT. MAKE SURE YOU READ THIS.

Strangely the fractal pattern at the current juncture for LTC/USD could be correlated to either early to mid Feb 2019 or Jan 10 2019. It appears LTC may be accelerating in time (but not in proportional price) compared to the prior fractal pattern earlier this year. So perhaps LTC will not decline below $60 again in 2019.

Whereas, BTC appears to not be accelerating in time but is accelerating in proportional price.

By proportional price, I mean compare the price rises from the prior $22 and $3102 bottoms as the difference in price from the bottom divided by the price drop from the cliff edge at $56 and $6550.

The calculation shows that LTC is 93% and BTC is 260% (2.6X) of the proportional price rises thus far compared to the prior fractal.

Thus I compute projected prices for LTC of $82, $116, and $158. And for BTC  three consecutive monthly highs of $13k, $21k, and $32k.

But those prices do not have to occur at the same time, especially not the $82.

It seems the only way to fulfill the 0.01 LTC/BTC target is for LTC/USD to hit $82 while BTC/USD drops to $8200. Then the $116 can occur with a rocket shot in BTC to $13k. I was expecting that rocket shot at start of February, but everything may be accelerating in time.

Recently @infofront cited a Twitter post that said the LTC miners are preparing to disconnect their machines and pumping the LTC price so they can get out and liquidate their mining equipment (and LTC) at the best prices. Apparently they expect BTC dominance to return soon and they want to cash out.

BTC/USD may decline to $8200 before end of November with LTC rising to $82 as the very short altcoin season bleeds BTC for a month only. Then BTC slowly rising to $9600 before end of 2019. Then a rocket shot to $13k on Armstrong’s ECM turn date in the start of January. With LTC rising to $116. Then $158 and $21k in February. In March BTC hits $32k and LTC and all altcoins are declining. In April BTC goes supernova to $50+k. My target for a spike high was $78k.

Let’s revisit what may end up being a very, very important blog, perhaps even more important than Plan B’s stock-to-flows model:

https://medium.com/@positivecrypto/the-golden-ratio-multiplier-c2567401e12a

Focus on this chart:



Interestingly at the recent $13.8k high, the ratio to the 350 DMA was 2.4. That places it between the red and purple lines. Which thus corresponds to a tweening between the peaks in Q3 2012 and Q3 2013. Whereas the corresponding peak in 2015 commensurately before the halving was only up to the green line, so current fractal pattern is not corresponding to the 5 multiplier. And if we do get a rocket shot into the May (actually late April) 2020 halving, then the chart is going to look very fractally similar to the 2013 rocket shot.

So this means (as I had posited previously) that the multiplier for the coming peak in late April 2020 should be between 8 and 13. The 350 DMA is currently $7k and will rise to greater than $10k. Even if the multiplier does decline to 3 as that blog posits, that is still going to be in excess of $30k for the peak. So perhaps my $32k will be the peak and perhaps the rocket shot to $13k will not begin until February 2020.

However, I assert that the legacy Bitcoin is being readopted, which will cause a stampede effect and thus a reversion to the 8 or perhaps 10 multiplier. Again 8 would place it near to my $78k expectation.

Also the above linked Medium blog gives a very useful metric for timing the ATH, when the 111 DMA crossed over 2 multiplied by the 350 DMA. We should remember to watch for that. So estimating now roughly when the 3.5 month average price is higher than somewhere above $20+k. So if we take my 3 consecutive month price estimates $13k, $21k, and $32k and presuming some acceleration along the way to average is weighted more towards the lower prices. Also those are peak prices, with dips in between. And the 350 DMA is likely to be higher than $10k. So a quick moon shot to $50+k in April after a dip from $32k in March, is within the realm of mathematical possibility.

$32k is the minimum for the ATH before May 2020, presuming my thesis is correct that the price will be pumped in advance of a posited SegWit attack at the halving.

Interestingly the 350 DMA should be ~8+k by early January, so a 1.6 multiplier would be $13k. By February should be $8.5+k thus 2 to 2.4 multiplier provides my $21k target (remember the tweening). By March $9 – $10k, so the 3 – 4 multiplier will provide my $32k target.

My current scenario after studying carefully the fractal pattern correlation. The current U-shaped correction appears to be roughly 71% of the duration of the prior one earlier this year.

BTC should bottom on this current retracement below $8500 by Nov. 24. The ideal target is $8200. LTC will retrace to somewhere between $57 and $60.

On ~Nov 24, a spike up for LTC and BTC to ~$70 and ~$8700. Then a decline over next several days to $60 – $64 and $8 – $8.4k. Then another spike up on ~Dec. 5 to ~$75 and $9.7k. Then a decline over next couple of days to ~$65 and ~$8.5k. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up for LTC coupled with a slow rise for BTC to ~$80 and $8.7k. Then slow rise by ~Dec. 22 to ~$83 and $8.9k.

Thus I see LTC/BTC reaching only a maximum of 0.0093, although perhaps 0.0098 is possible on some intraday spike divergence for LTC and BTC. I would probably sell LTC at $80 and thus 0.0092 is likely the best I could achieve. Given an entry at 0.0069, that would be a 33% gain in BTC, if repurchasing BTC immediately after selling LTC. Those who entered at 0.006 might get a 50% gain in BTC if they time it perfectly.

Another strategy might be to sell maybe half at $75 and then if LTC drops to $65 repurchase for a 15% gain, else (if LTC does not drop) purchase BTC for ~$8.5k (because it seems BTC must drop otherwise it can’t rise to $8.7k), so that is still a 27% gain in BTC is purchased LTC when LTC/BTC was 0.0069.

Frankly only a 33% potential gain (relative to BTC) is not all that incredibly enticing given the risk of the volatility of LTC. Timing may be end up elusive.

GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS

I did the same calculations for GRS and it’s about 3X leveraged in price compared to the prior fractal earlier this year. On ~Nov 24, GRS should rise to ~0.27 which if BTC is $8700, then GRS/BTC will be 0.000031. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up ~$0.48, and thus GRS/BTC 0.000055. So I think GRS/BTC has better leverage and can double your BTC, but you must have your sell limit orders waiting because the spikes can be completed in a couple of hours sometimes. A strategy would be to sell maybe half at $0.27 and attempt to reload at $0.23 or purchase BTC at $8700.

In this scenario, the rocket shot is timed perfectly with Armstrong’s monumental ECM turn date, so ~Jan 1, 2020, a rocket shot to ~$116 and ~$12.5k. That will be the last chance to trade LTC for BTC. BTC may have an intraday (or next day) spike low of $11k. So if you sold at say $110 and repurchased $11.5k, that would be 0.096, thus increasing potential BTC gains to 40% (if purchased when LTC/BTC is 0.0069) or 65% if entered when LTC/BTC was 0.006. But that’s going to be some chaotic timing. Hope the exchanges don’t get slammed.

In this scenario, during the rest of January LTC will decline to ~$86 and BTC will oscillate but reach a peak of $13k. I wonder if we will get another flash crash in late January to $10k this time, mimicking the flash crash in April 2019.

In this timing scenario, before Feb 12 (2020), BTC will spike up again to $21k. Within a week a decline to perhaps ~$17.3k. Then another rocket shot to ~$32k by ~March 2.

The market would be somewhat confused at this point because the ATH would have been significantly exceeded well before the halving. Thus I would expect some sort of deeper and slightly longer correction. Maybe back to $21k again to throw many off the train who are looking to repurchase below the 2017 $20k ATH before the halving currently targeted for May 14:

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

That and including the uncertainty about whether the price will indeed go higher than ~$32k before any SegWit attack is why I will probably take all the cash I am going to need at $32k, then perhaps repurchase half of what I sold if the price drops to say $21k before the halving. Also I will be keeping my eye on the 111 DMA vs. twice the 350 DMA as mentioned in my prior email. Such an extended decline might be necessary to keep that 111 DMA from prematurely crossing down under twice the 350 DMA.

So then in April suddenly a moonshot to $50+k. Again my target is $78k but I will reaccess at that time after looking at all factors including where is the 350 DMA at that juncture.

What's going on everyone. Would love some feedback and thoughts on this post.

Let's discuss.

[tenakha]

Approximately every 4 years the reward that miners receive for finding a block, halves. This event is referred to as the “Bitcoin halving” and was hardcoded by Satoshi Nakamoto into the Bitcoin protocol to enforce its deflationary monetary policy.

In the 2020 Bitcoin halving mining rewards will drop from 12.5 Bitcoins per block, to 6.25 Bitcoins per block.

At the time of the 2020 halving, 18,375,000 Bitcoins will have been mined in total. That’s approximately 85% of the total Bitcoin supply.

What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140. Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

If the analysis were that easy...
We are all aware of the different nature of BTC. So we do not know what will happen until or after halving. Maybe the price will go down as it does today, maybe it will increase as unexpected. The previous ones had an impact on the price, and I hope we will get the same result from the next halving. For now, the important thing is whether the price will reach $6900 level and the next moves.

[gogoi]

Approximately every 4 years the reward that miners receive for finding a block, halves. This event is referred to as the “Bitcoin halving” and was hardcoded by Satoshi Nakamoto into the Bitcoin protocol to enforce its deflationary monetary policy.

In the 2020 Bitcoin halving mining rewards will drop from 12.5 Bitcoins per block, to 6.25 Bitcoins per block.

At the time of the 2020 halving, 18,375,000 Bitcoins will have been mined in total. That’s approximately 85% of the total Bitcoin supply.

What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140. Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

If the analysis were that easy...
We are all aware of the different nature of BTC. So we do not know what will happen until or after halving. Maybe the price will go down as it does today, maybe it will increase as unexpected. The previous ones had an impact on the price, and I hope we will get the same result from the next halving. For now, the important thing is whether the price will reach $6900 level and the next moves.

The best pro athletes also make the sports they excel out look easy. The truth is there is nothing easy about it.

Same here. Nothing easy about it.

[Wexlike]

If the analysis were that easy...
We are all aware of the different nature of BTC. So we do not know what will happen until or after halving. Maybe the price will go down as it does today, maybe it will increase as unexpected. The previous ones had an impact on the price, and I hope we will get the same result from the next halving. For now, the important thing is whether the price will reach $6900 level and the next moves.

Well, we just reached $6900. Curious how it will go from here.

[bbc.reporter]

If the analysis were that easy...
We are all aware of the different nature of BTC. So we do not know what will happen until or after halving. Maybe the price will go down as it does today, maybe it will increase as unexpected. The previous ones had an impact on the price, and I hope we will get the same result from the next halving. For now, the important thing is whether the price will reach $6900 level and the next moves.

Well, we just reached $6900. Curious how it will go from here.

It might also occur similar to litecoin after its halving where some of the miners shutdown and the hashrate went down. I reckon it might begin the question if fees alone can secure bitcoin.

[romero121]

If the analysis were that easy...
We are all aware of the different nature of BTC. So we do not know what will happen until or after halving. Maybe the price will go down as it does today, maybe it will increase as unexpected. The previous ones had an impact on the price, and I hope we will get the same result from the next halving. For now, the important thing is whether the price will reach $6900 level and the next moves.

Well, we just reached $6900. Curious how it will go from here.

It might also occur similar to litecoin after its halving where some of the miners shutdown and the hashrate went down. I reckon it might begin the question if fees alone can secure bitcoin.

There was big expectation by the time of halving. What we expected and what happened with litecoin is entirely different. Those two past halving gave good market pumping, but the present market scenario is different and there is increased market demand as very little number is to be mined compared to the previously mined bitcoins. This time the growth should be much higher than the past, but as of now there is hard to predict what gonna happen by the days before and after halving.

[bbc.reporter]

@romero121. However, there might also not be an increase in demand after the halving. This is not automatic. Do you not see the argument that it might occur similar to litecoin? It will reduce miners' earnings and it might cause some of them to shutdown.

[Bezobraznike]

@romero121. However, there might also not be an increase in demand after the halving. This is not automatic. Do you not see the argument that it might occur similar to litecoin? It will reduce miners' earnings and it might cause some of them to shutdown.

    Some of us are just optimistic, and we have every right to be. Demand doesn't need to increase, it's enough to stay the
same and the price will rise with decreasing the supply.
    Deep inside every person on this forum have some optimistic prediction for the price of Bitcoin after the halving. We are
accumulating satoshis and we hope for the best outcome. The halving is getting closer, so in 6 months we will see what
will happen after the halving.

[Furious 7]

The count down of the next halving scalability was almost there, https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ link shows, 182 days more to go.

Everyone waiting for the best result on this becoming promising event in bitcoin price, the next halving. But the real fact is no one knows the market situation is and it is an unpredictable price movement. Let's time can tell and will reveal the truth.

Thank you for sharing.

Despite the fact that it is some how difficult to predict the future price during or after halving it is believe that history do repeat itself. And you take a vivid look at what has happened during halving in the past you will come to realize that they might replicate of the past incidents.

I am sure history will repeat itself, every 4 years after Halving happens, the price of Bitcoin is always pump very high, We can look at the previous Halving where in 2017 (a year after Halving) and I think the same Pump will occur in 2021, a year after Halving.

Yep also needs a process to reach ATH especially when every halving happens in a few months there will be a pumping I'm so sure about that but we have to wait in the right time, especially when market conditions like this are still many speculating about the price of bitcoin that will soar high but not in fact this year.

[bbc.reporter]

@romero121. However, there might also not be an increase in demand after the halving. This is not automatic. Do you not see the argument that it might occur similar to litecoin? It will reduce miners' earnings and it might cause some of them to shutdown.

    Some of us are just optimistic, and we have every right to be. Demand doesn't need to increase, it's enough to stay the
same and the price will rise with decreasing the supply.
    Deep inside every person on this forum have some optimistic prediction for the price of Bitcoin after the halving. We are
accumulating satoshis and we hope for the best outcome. The halving is getting closer, so in 6 months we will see what
will happen after the halving.

I disagree. Decreasing supply also might cause some miners to shutdown, leaving bitcoin with less hashrate without increasing the price.

I reckon that we should stop and analyze the situation without following the permabull echo chamber blindly.

[btc78]

i would be happy even we only break the 20$ grant last 2017 ,i dont want to frustrate myself looking for much higher because i know there will the the change of system this coming halving.
there will be abusing that happen from the biggest investors just like what they are doing in the market movement from the start.

[DeathAngel]

i would be happy even we only break the 20$ grant last 2017 ,i dont want to frustrate myself looking for much higher because i know there will the the change of system this coming halving.
there will be abusing that happen from the biggest investors just like what they are doing in the market movement from the start.

Once the halving takes effect & there are less coins on the market the previous ATH will smashed. 2021 is going to be epic.

[johnwest]

Everyone is just hoping that this will be true and the price reach may be 7x or 8x of previous all time high. I feel the halving will be a great positive point for the crypto community and we may see another new rally towards ATH.

[darkangel11]

Everyone is just hoping that this will be true and the price reach may be 7x or 8x of previous all time high. I feel the halving will be a great positive point for the crypto community and we may see another new rally towards ATH.

When the majority is talking about it all the time it usually doesn't happen. I can already tell you that if we keep seeing this "when pump when lambo" attitude towards halving it will end with a major disappointment. The reason for it being that this fake hype makes a lot of newbies enter the market and all of them just want to exit to fiat. THey want to buy Bitcoin with their 10k savings and after a month exit with 15k never to return making it harder and harder to break psychological barriers like 10k.

[nanaimogold]

i would be happy even we only break the 20$ grant last 2017 ,i dont want to frustrate myself looking for much higher because i know there will the the change of system this coming halving.
there will be abusing that happen from the biggest investors just like what they are doing in the market movement from the start.

Exactly my friend. I am more interested in bitcoin crossing its all time high of $20k than making new records at x3 of ath. Although previous history of bitcoin during halving had a tremendous return but we can't still overlook other variables that might take its toll on the price as well. So I will generally buy some btc and keep an open mind

[TitanGEL]

Everyone is just hoping that this will be true and the price reach may be 7x or 8x of previous all time high. I feel the halving will be a great positive point for the crypto community and we may see another new rally towards ATH.

When the majority is talking about it all the time it usually doesn't happen. I can already tell you that if we keep seeing this "when pump when lambo" attitude towards halving it will end with a major disappointment. The reason for it being that this fake hype makes a lot of newbies enter the market and all of them just want to exit to fiat. THey want to buy Bitcoin with their 10k savings and after a month exit with 15k never to return making it harder and harder to break psychological barriers like 10k.

I do not think that so because for me bitcoin cannot easily achieve $55000 per each. I think it is exaggerated and for me achieving its previous all time is possible. The bitcoin has support and resistance. If the price breakout to its current resistance then there will be another resistance. We should be aware that the area of resistance are the area of the sellers so the price are having tough time to surpass it. I do not expect too much in the price of bitcoin and I just keep monitoring its price movement.

[buwaytress]

I disagree. Decreasing supply also might cause some miners to shutdown, leaving bitcoin with less hashrate without increasing the price.

I reckon that we should stop and analyze the situation without following the permabull echo chamber blindly.

I think miners are completely dependent on income, from what I've seen in the past year and a half. And that's not as much to do with the exact economics of selling bitcoin, but on how much they can keep the operations afloat for, versus how much they've got in the bank. I still believe miners actually try to time their sells and then actually have enough in the bank to operate at a theoretical loss. They're always selling either at a high.

Other way is contractually via OTC. Once that contract runs out and they can't negotiate a good price, then it's all over until they can.

That's totally not scientific, by the way, the way my gut sees it now.

[ultrloa]

Everyone is just hoping that this will be true and the price reach may be 7x or 8x of previous all time high. I feel the halving will be a great positive point for the crypto community and we may see another new rally towards ATH.

When the majority is talking about it all the time it usually doesn't happen. I can already tell you that if we keep seeing this "when pump when lambo" attitude towards halving it will end with a major disappointment. The reason for it being that this fake hype makes a lot of newbies enter the market and all of them just want to exit to fiat. THey want to buy Bitcoin with their 10k savings and after a month exit with 15k never to return making it harder and harder to break psychological barriers like 10k.

I do not think that so because for me bitcoin cannot easily achieve $55000 per each. I think it is exaggerated and for me achieving its previous all time is possible. The bitcoin has support and resistance. If the price breakout to its current resistance then there will be another resistance. We should be aware that the area of resistance are the area of the sellers so the price are having tough time to surpass it. I do not expect too much in the price of bitcoin and I just keep monitoring its price movement.

So do I and never think that to be happen since if we look back on what's happening today for sure it will hunt down the mindset of the people and whenever we can see a big price up then the sells will follow since we already encounter those things up and those given numbers is so huge which really not possible to pass on right now. Maybe it's best for us to monitor the flows and instead of thinking about impossible things we should focus on the current condition.

[pixie85]

I do not think that so because for me bitcoin cannot easily achieve $55000 per each. I think it is exaggerated and for me achieving its previous all time is possible. The bitcoin has support and resistance. If the price breakout to its current resistance then there will be another resistance. We should be aware that the area of resistance are the area of the sellers so the price are having tough time to surpass it. I do not expect too much in the price of bitcoin and I just keep monitoring its price movement.

Support and resistance cease don't matter when there's hype and FOMO. Did you see resistance levels at play on the way to 20 thousand in 2017?

When we broke 3000 it was all crazy hype fomo market with the price going up by 1000 dollars every few days with almost no pullbacks and corrections. We could be at 50 thousand in less than 6 months of a fomo market.

[CryptoBry]

Everyone is just hoping that this will be true and the price reach may be 7x or 8x of previous all time high. I feel the halving will be a great positive point for the crypto community and we may see another new rally towards ATH.

There is more chance that indeed the coming May 2020 rewards halving can pull some tricks on Bitcoin I think this is already a foregone conclusion, but we can't determine is how much percentage of possible pump will there be. And that is something that we should be excitedly watching for. Right now, there is this industry-side expectancy so it can even be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Of course, there will always be people who have other opinions and that is just fine since we are really in a market all determine by the demand and supply as well as some big and small manipulations, admittedly.

[DevilSlayer]

It is possible but it will take a time, bitcoin will not easily achieve that $55,000 per each. I think it will be a months or even years. But one thing is sure and it is the growing the value and the power of bitcoin. The halving will cause the market reversal where if the bitcoin is still bearish next year we will see that it will form a market reversal chart and the bearish market will become a bullish market.

[adaseb]

Out of all the bitcoins that are mined everyday which according to,
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/

Is around $16 million per day. Doesn't mean that those $16 million are market sold every single day.

Most mining farms are large and professional organizations and they've been mining for years and have tons of capital for electrical and equipment. Most of the farms probably only sell during strong bull markets and just hold during a bear market. Sure its not all the farms but most of them operate this way.

I think with alts like ETH its different because its more retail focused, so they need to sell their ETH to pay for their 1080Ti GPUs and their electricity, however bitcoin is generally more oriented with professionals instead of the beginning retail miners.

So the day after the halving doesn't necessarily mean that there will be $8 million dumped per day from $16 million.

[MI6]

It is possible but it will take a time, bitcoin will not easily achieve that $55,000 per each. I think it will be a months or even years. But one thing is sure and it is the growing the value and the power of bitcoin. The halving will cause the market reversal where if the bitcoin is still bearish next year we will see that it will form a market reversal chart and the bearish market will become a bullish market.

$55000 if only because halving maybe not really enough to reach. Maybe after it, need a months or a years for bitcoin price to reach even $50000. For me, maybe i wouldn't expect that high because will need a lot of money to pump bitcoin into that price.

[lienfaye]

It is possible but it will take a time, bitcoin will not easily achieve that $55,000 per each. I think it will be a months or even years. But one thing is sure and it is the growing the value and the power of bitcoin. The halving will cause the market reversal where if the bitcoin is still bearish next year we will see that it will form a market reversal chart and the bearish market will become a bullish market.

$55000 if only because halving maybe not really enough to reach. Maybe after it, need a months or a years for bitcoin price to reach even $50000. For me, maybe i wouldn't expect that high because will need a lot of money to pump bitcoin into that price.

Many have said the price of btc will skyrocket after the halving but we cant rely too much with those predictions. History might repeat itself but still no one knows if this is still the case for the next halving. Its better to have our own analysis about it so we are prepared whatever the outcome is.

[AakZaki]

I think that the price of BTC is too fast to reach the price you mentioned, because 2019 is not over.  I'm not pessimistic, just I don't think that's right.  halving moment is still far away we need to see again what will happen next year.  and hope that BTC can be as we hoped.

[stadus]

With what I observe in the market now, I don't think we will reach that high even with the upcoming halving.
I'd rather be conservative with my prediction and I am hoping that the upcoming halving will somehow bring some hype in the market again and the hype would be enough to bring the price to its ATH and maybe surpass it, but at the range of $55,000 - $130,000, I highly doubt we will achieve that in just a short period of time.

You attached a link which is a video, I'll watch that to know how its possible to reach at that high prediction.

[longyenthanh]

$55000 price prediction is unjustified for Bitcoin. We are yet to reach an agreed upon stable price of bitcoin. I don’t know what impact this coin halving will have on price of bitcoin but at-least bitcoin wont be going to 50,000 $. I suggest all to stay away from such predictions. Almost all have gone wrong.

[altcointalk14]

There is another thread which says bitcoin may go down to $5500 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5210171.0 and this thread saying bitcoin may go to $55000. $5500 seem more feasible then $55000. For me coin halving is just a buzz word and we wont see any hike in price due to that event. Just buy whenever you think is righ time to buy.

[BChydro]

Out of all the bitcoins that are mined everyday which according to,
Is around $16 million per day. Doesn't mean that those $16 million are market sold every single day.
Most mining farms are large and professional organizations and they've been mining for years and have tons of capital for electrical and equipment. Most of the farms probably only sell during strong bull markets and just hold during a bear market. Sure its not all the farms but most of them operate this way.

The reason they are professionals is because of the huge amount of capital investment required to start one and they will liquidate the coins in a strategical way rather than dumping the coins just like that as they want the market to grow to have a sustained profit in the long run and most of the sales will be done without the coins entering the exchanges.

I think with alts like ETH its different because its more retail focused, so they need to sell their ETH to pay for their 1080Ti GPUs and their electricity, however bitcoin is generally more oriented with professionals instead of the beginning retail miners.

It depends upon the kind of investment and the bank balance of the miner and hence you cannot predict that perfectly as you do not need a large investment like ASIC to purchase these GPU and you can run a decent farm without much investment in the past but now i have no idea about the difficulty level.

[Oneandpure]

There is another thread which says bitcoin may go down to $5500 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5210171.0 and this thread saying bitcoin may go to $55000. $5500 seem more feasible then $55000. For me coin halving is just a buzz word and we wont see any hike in price due to that event. Just buy whenever you think is righ time to buy.

Every one have own prediction although not have correct prediction about bitcoin price up above $55k and bitcoin will goes down under $5500, right now is not chance to heard with many fake prediction with bitcoin because almost of bitcoin prediction not true and give fake prediction with bitcoin price never corresponding whit how much price prediction.

[diazepam666]

Bitcoin price and halving are really close each other.
Reason is marketplace value of bitcoin is always shows its potential at the halving time due to that people are expecting bitcoin to reach the next peak value in the market.
But still we are not aware that it will reach to such value.

[monineklutak]

$55000 price prediction is unjustified for Bitcoin. We are yet to reach an agreed upon stable price of bitcoin. I don’t know what impact this coin halving will have on price of bitcoin but at-least bitcoin wont be going to 50,000 $. I suggest all to stay away from such predictions. Almost all have gone wrong.

$ 55,000 is difficult for Bitcoin to be able to achieve in this short of time, this is still not normal, the prediction is very off the mark, if Bitcoin cannot break through strong resistance at $ 19,000 we won't be able to see $ 55k- $ 100k

[MI6]

It is possible but it will take a time, bitcoin will not easily achieve that $55,000 per each. I think it will be a months or even years. But one thing is sure and it is the growing the value and the power of bitcoin. The halving will cause the market reversal where if the bitcoin is still bearish next year we will see that it will form a market reversal chart and the bearish market will become a bullish market.

$55000 if only because halving maybe not really enough to reach. Maybe after it, need a months or a years for bitcoin price to reach even $50000. For me, maybe i wouldn't expect that high because will need a lot of money to pump bitcoin into that price.

Many have said the price of btc will skyrocket after the halving but we cant rely too much with those predictions. History might repeat itself but still no one knows if this is still the case for the next halving. Its better to have our own analysis about it so we are prepared whatever the outcome is.

Speculations can help us to make decision with our investment. Only help and we can use it to make our own analysis. I think yes price can be skyrocket, but no one can fixed to know when and how much it will reach. As long we prepare for worst thing that can be happen, we are ready for it.

[Sterbens]

It is possible but it will take a time, bitcoin will not easily achieve that $55,000 per each. I think it will be a months or even years. But one thing is sure and it is the growing the value and the power of bitcoin. The halving will cause the market reversal where if the bitcoin is still bearish next year we will see that it will form a market reversal chart and the bearish market will become a bullish market.

$55000 if only because halving maybe not really enough to reach. Maybe after it, need a months or a years for bitcoin price to reach even $50000. For me, maybe i wouldn't expect that high because will need a lot of money to pump bitcoin into that price.

Many have said the price of btc will skyrocket after the halving but we cant rely too much with those predictions. History might repeat itself but still no one knows if this is still the case for the next halving. Its better to have our own analysis about it so we are prepared whatever the outcome is.

Speculations can help us to make decision with our investment. Only help and we can use it to make our own analysis. I think yes price can be skyrocket, but no one can fixed to know when and how much it will reach. As long we prepare for worst thing that can be happen, we are ready for it.

In fact, I cannot conclude that speculation is true. I prefer to wait for speculations that are not clear, even the experts cannot judge the results correctly.
Invest in doing it with your own and indeed if halving happens, many will consider it a sharp spike, but that hasn't been confirmed either.

[bitbunnny]

Another exaggerated prediction, that is all I can comment.
I think that expectations from halving are too high. It might influence the price in positive way, however that will probably be on short term and on a smaller scale. I don't expect some huge price jump and especialy not price range of 55000$ or more, I.don't think that is likely at all.

[free-bit.co.in]

2020 won't be a magic year for Bitcoin, I expect $15k in best scenario and in the worst case between $8k-$10k. It will be a long and slow year for Bitcoin. 2021 will be more realistic that things start moving up, well we will see!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

2020 won't be a magic year for Bitcoin, I expect $15k in best scenario and in the worst case between $8k-$10k. It will be a long and slow year for Bitcoin. 2021 will be more realistic that things start moving up, well we will see!

Full agree with this, 2021 is the year we really start to rally. It’s going to take a while for the reduced number of coins on the market due to the halving takes effect (as seen post previous halvings).

[minersday]

Come on guys, let us face the reality for once. Where is such a huge money coming from to push bitcoin price to such an insane level. I think even if we are going to see a rise in value it will rise to $15K and nothing else. Everybody can make a prediction about the price of bitcoin but let's do so with some sense of seriousness looking at its development and adoption.

[free-bit.co.in]

Come on guys, let us face the reality for once. Where is such a huge money coming from to push bitcoin price to such an insane level. I think even if we are going to see a rise in value it will rise to $15K and nothing else. Everybody can make a prediction about the price of bitcoin but let's do so with some sense of seriousness looking at its development and adoption.

They said that too when people where saying we will see $1000 per BTC when the price was just $100.. It was unreal for me too...but we won't see a dramatic rise in 2020, halving takes time to take it into calculation of the price!

Adoption is rising from small business trying to get to into the BTC wagon and even government owned  business. Like in Croatia, Croatian Post office is buying Crypto (BTC,ETH and so on) and you get cash, later they will introduce that you can buy Crypto from them too. Currently they exchange Crypto in 55 places in whole Croatia!

https://thebitcoinnews.com/croatian-post-now-offers-crypto-exchange-service-at-55-branches/

We won't see a $55k BTC price anytime soon, but we can expect things to get interesting later in 2021!

When I look 1 year back and take a look now, Bitcoin has spread quite a bit in this time span!!

 

[bitcoindusts]

2020 won't be a magic year for Bitcoin, I expect $15k in best scenario and in the worst case between $8k-$10k. It will be a long and slow year for Bitcoin. 2021 will be more realistic that things start moving up, well we will see!

Same here, I also think $15k would be the highest BTC price this year.  I think the halving hype is not enough to push BTC to its new heights.  Aside from that there are lots of shorters in the market, they tend to short their trades when they see a 10% to 20% profit.  If traders wanted Bitcoin to really go high and break its ATH, they should hoard their BTC and sell when it hits the mark ($20k+).

[buwaytress]

Are you guys following the Bitcoin Halving Countdown?

Not really, but it's been burnt into my mind from every other counter showing it;)

I was hoping to see a lot more people say the halving would be a non-event (since Bitcoin does love proving people wrong) but I think this halving could also be the first where the most people say it's going to push BTC into a rally. OF course, it's also probably the first where prominent voices think it'll be a silent tree falling in the forest. Morgan Creek is the perfect example, both co-founders totally at odds with each other in their view of halving (Pomp says not priced in, Williams says non-event).

[gogoi]

Approximately every 4 years the reward that miners receive for finding a block, halves. This event is referred to as the “Bitcoin halving” and was hardcoded by Satoshi Nakamoto into the Bitcoin protocol to enforce its deflationary monetary policy.

In the 2020 Bitcoin halving mining rewards will drop from 12.5 Bitcoins per block, to 6.25 Bitcoins per block.

At the time of the 2020 halving, 18,375,000 Bitcoins will have been mined in total. That’s approximately 85% of the total Bitcoin supply.

What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140. Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

[italianMiner72]

i think 130K usd still too much...
but according to the stock to flow analysis, maybe we can approach 100000usd
for the previous bitcoin halving seem it worked great...
but all of us know, the history, is not sure, it will repeat itself!

take a look at the chart below.

[d3nz]

Another exaggerated prediction, that is all I can comment.
I think that expectations from halving are too high. It might influence the price in positive way, however that will probably be on short term and on a smaller scale. I don't expect some huge price jump and especialy not price range of 55000$ or more, I.don't think that is likely at all.

And that would be a big jump and we don't know yet if the bitcoin's value will still rise up to $15,000 or more, we just need to wait and take advantage of the market's flow. Even thou there is a lot of prediction we just always need to accumulate and I am really expecting a rise in the value of bitcoin because the halving is near and once the reward will be in half then a few miners may only mine it since it could be not profitable for them because of the electricity consumed in bills.

And better to check the value of bitcoin every hour since it is going up or down as of today.

[Twinkledoe]

Another exaggerated prediction, that is all I can comment.
I think that expectations from halving are too high. It might influence the price in positive way, however that will probably be on short term and on a smaller scale. I don't expect some huge price jump and especialy not price range of 55000$ or more, I.don't think that is likely at all.

And that would be a big jump and we don't know yet if the bitcoin's value will still rise up to $15,000 or more, we just need to wait and take advantage of the market's flow. Even thou there is a lot of prediction we just always need to accumulate and I am really expecting a rise in the value of bitcoin because the halving is near and once the reward will be in half then a few miners may only mine it since it could be not profitable for them because of the electricity consumed in bills.

And better to check the value of bitcoin every hour since it is going up or down as of today.

The OP's price prediction is too much. Though we are not to believe everyone's speculation, but some newbies are sometimes gullible enough to believe what they are reading. And then later on, they will curse that person for having wrong prediction because they lost money. Everyone can have their prediction but it doesn't mean that you need to believe of all this crap. If btc will rise at least twice its value now, we will be grateful but if not, that's fine.

[LordShanken]

Are you guys following the Bitcoin Halving Countdown?

We all know that the halving event will be in mid-May, so no countdown is needed, just a regular calendar.
The biggest question is whether the bull run starts now and the new ATH will be above $100k, or if it is a bull trap now and the bull run will start as always after halving, and the BTC price will fight for $ 50k .. 

[Jiyens3]

It is possible but it will take a time, bitcoin will not easily achieve that $55,000 per each. I think it will be a months or even years. But one thing is sure and it is the growing the value and the power of bitcoin. The halving will cause the market reversal where if the bitcoin is still bearish next year we will see that it will form a market reversal chart and the bearish market will become a bullish market.

$55000 if only because halving maybe not really enough to reach. Maybe after it, need a months or a years for bitcoin price to reach even $50000. For me, maybe i wouldn't expect that high because will need a lot of money to pump bitcoin into that price.

Many have said the price of btc will skyrocket after the halving but we cant rely too much with those predictions. History might repeat itself but still no one knows if this is still the case for the next halving. Its better to have our own analysis about it so we are prepared whatever the outcome is.

Speculations can help us to make decision with our investment. Only help and we can use it to make our own analysis. I think yes price can be skyrocket, but no one can fixed to know when and how much it will reach. As long we prepare for worst thing that can be happen, we are ready for it.

In fact, I cannot conclude that speculation is true. I prefer to wait for speculations that are not clear, even the experts cannot judge the results correctly.
Invest in doing it with your own and indeed if halving happens, many will consider it a sharp spike, but that hasn't been confirmed either.

yes all speculation is just an opinion, you can not fully trust on it. better to make your decision because your decision has own risk . for me better to see condition on the market than follow the speculations from people

each halving bitcoin price can not predict and always reach new ATH (you can see in the history), so maybe the next halving will reach new ATH again but can not make sure how much.

[Visbay]

Are you guys following the Bitcoin Halving Countdown?

We all know that the halving event will be in mid-May, so no countdown is needed, just a regular calendar.
The biggest question is whether the bull run starts now and the new ATH will be above $100k, or if it is a bull trap now and the bull run will start as always after halving, and the BTC price will fight for $ 50k .. 

Yes, this is really bad to make people fool by giving such baseless predictions without any serious motive. According to me bitcoin is having the potential to rise and it increases more than double in a short time but according to the current analysis price will cross only $20k this year and it will take more than 5 years to rise this much. We better keep waiting with determinants.

[Darooghe]

In my opinion it’s fairly safe to say that Bitcoin will still be at the attention of the cryptocurrency industry and investors in 2020 with the upcoming Bitcoin halvening in May. a halvening happens roughly every 4 years, and historically it have resulted in a bull run. The Bitcoin halving in 2012 heralded a bull run in 2013, and the halving in 2016 made way for the historic bull run of 2017 where Bitcoin reached its highest ever price of $20,000. I think this time we hit $60,000 easily.

[ubercool]

My best guess would be between 50000$ to 75000$, but as many of the community members predict, it'll be after the halving rather than before. So end of 2020 and 2021 would be a bull tide for BTC and I'm just thinking that at least 10% of that positive movement should go to alts, only then we'll survive. Otherwise all the alt holders will just bleed in this situation.

[fravia]

After the price recovery to be fair I have regained a little bit of money. Probably the pumps were high in past halvings to some degree, but certainly by now anyone remotely interested in finance, capital, bitcoin or gold would have known about May 2020 halving a long time ago. This is probably the most talked about, most anticipated, and most hyped, unlike past halvings. It seems expectations will fail when it comes to the price of Bitcoin... Not to say it's not going to be an influence, but to me it's already coming into play

[gogoi]

i think 130K usd still too much...
but according to the stock to flow analysis, maybe we can approach 100000usd
for the previous bitcoin halving seem it worked great...
but all of us know, the history, is not sure, it will repeat itself!

take a look at the chart below.

While I have 130K as my fair priced target (stock to flow has 110k) the important piece to consider is that markets tend to overshoot themselves both to the upside and downside.

Take a look at the chart you provided and prior to the 1st halving and during the 1st halving price reached beyond the upper bound of the stock 2 flow chart.

During the 2nd cycle reached the upper bound.

If during the coming 3rd halving cycle prices again reached or exceeds the upper bound that places price close to $350,000.

Now again markets tend to overshoot to the upside and downside.

An -85% correction from the peak if it were 350k places Bitcoin back down to $52,500 in the bear before recovering toward fair price of S2F $110,000 before the 4th halving cycle.

[gogoi]

Another exaggerated prediction, that is all I can comment.
I think that expectations from halving are too high. It might influence the price in positive way, however that will probably be on short term and on a smaller scale. I don't expect some huge price jump and especialy not price range of 55000$ or more, I.don't think that is likely at all.

You think the performance of the last two halving cycles were anomalies. What do you base that off of pure speculation or intuition?

[buwaytress]

You think the performance of the last two halving cycles were anomalies. What do you base that off of pure speculation or intuition?

I can't speak personally for the first halving event, but in 2012, when almost 50% of all BTC had already been mined, I always wonder about how big the markets truly were, how distributed, how much the actual volume really was when you took away wash numbers and bots (who had to be super rife in those days). Price had to be a lot easier to manipulate then, so I always take those numbers with a pinch of salt.

Here's a piece of history: the miner, and his gear, that found the block to trigger the first halving event;) :

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=168342.0

[thecodebear]

I generally agree with the 55k to 130k prediction. I mean that is a huge range haha, but I'd be very surprised if the peak of the next boom is not in that range. The global economic crisis caused by the pandemic sets everything back a bit I think, because when people have less money to spend that means less money goes into bitcoin. I think we'll probably see the next peak in 2022, basically 2 to 3 years from now. I think there is a small chance it breaches $100k, then in euphoria jumps to like $120k in the days that follow before crashing. But at this point I think its more likely we see mid to high 5 digits as the next peak. I think a little bit of institutional money will flow into Bitcoin during the current market cycle, but it's not gonna follow the price to the peak and then get burned on the crash, it'll get out early in the mid-to-high 5 digits which I think will stall the bull run. For a more narrow prediction I'd say $60k - $90k will be the peak of this market cycle in less than 3 years.

[mahilchii]

I generally agree with the 55k to 130k prediction. I mean that is a huge range haha, but I'd be very surprised if the peak of the next boom is not in that range. The global economic crisis caused by the pandemic sets everything back a bit I think, because when people have less money to spend that means less money goes into bitcoin. I think we'll probably see the next peak in 2022, basically 2 to 3 years from now. I think there is a small chance it breaches $100k, then in euphoria jumps to like $120k in the days that follow before crashing. But at this point I think its more likely we see mid to high 5 digits as the next peak. I think a little bit of institutional money will flow into Bitcoin during the current market cycle, but it's not gonna follow the price to the peak and then get burned on the crash, it'll get out early in the mid-to-high 5 digits which I think will stall the bull run. For a more narrow prediction I'd say $60k - $90k will be the peak of this market cycle in less than 3 years.

Its not a huge range we can call it as beyond the limit, nowadays people's predictions are like blunders they give whatever they want. They are just blindly updating without analysing the market startegy...

I just wanted to let them know how crypto works, it's very simple when there's a demand in coin the price will automatically go up...

[gentlemand]

The global economic crisis caused by the pandemic sets everything back a bit I think, because when people have less money to spend that means less money goes into bitcoin.

Imagine proposing the situation we've ended up in now when this thread was started in November. You'd be accused of being a pisspoor slash fiction hack.

We're either well and truly on the precipice of something cataclysmic or we're going to be dragged back from the edge and spurt some major relief all over the place. I am impressed at how well BTC's price has held up but I also think we're in a bit of a disbelief stage still.  I wouldn't want to make any calls about anything at present.

[Spaffin]

We're either well and truly on the precipice of something cataclysmic or we're going to be dragged back from the edge and spurt some major relief all over the place. I am impressed at how well BTC's price has held up but I also think we're in a bit of a disbelief stage still.  I wouldn't want to make any calls about anything at present.

At its core, the expectations of cryptocurrency users have not changed since November 2019, when this theme was created until today.  There were constant forecasts that Bitcoin would improve its performance in the cryptocurrency market, but no one imagined what was happening around the world today.  Until recently, I very much hoped for another halving of 2020, which would provoke a shortage of Bitcoin in the market, which would lead the entire cryptocurrency market to stable growth, but somehow coronavirus destroys all plans and hopes not only in the cryptocurrency market, but also in relation to  to any business in the world.  but nonetheless, I believe that during the period of deep economic crisis that awaits us in the near future, it is the cryptocurrency market that should become a lifeline for many investors and businessmen.

[thecodebear]

We're either well and truly on the precipice of something cataclysmic or we're going to be dragged back from the edge and spurt some major relief all over the place. I am impressed at how well BTC's price has held up but I also think we're in a bit of a disbelief stage still.  I wouldn't want to make any calls about anything at present.

At its core, the expectations of cryptocurrency users have not changed since November 2019, when this theme was created until today.  There were constant forecasts that Bitcoin would improve its performance in the cryptocurrency market, but no one imagined what was happening around the world today.  Until recently, I very much hoped for another halving of 2020, which would provoke a shortage of Bitcoin in the market, which would lead the entire cryptocurrency market to stable growth, but somehow coronavirus destroys all plans and hopes not only in the cryptocurrency market, but also in relation to  to any business in the world.  but nonetheless, I believe that during the period of deep economic crisis that awaits us in the near future, it is the cryptocurrency market that should become a lifeline for many investors and businessmen.

I mean the halving is still taking place haha, its still gonna cause the same general effect as it would have, which is to limit new supply and therefore put upward pressure on the price in the months and years to come. Its just that the March 12th panic sell and the fact that tons of people aren't gonna have jobs for a while means there is less money in Bitcoin and will be for a while, so likely this market cycle will be extended by the pandemic. For example, hypothetically if we were gonna see the height of the bull market in 2021, maybe we'll see it in 2022 now instead. You are right though that the expectations haven't really changed, just the timeline is likely moved back a bit.