Bitcoin Halving Price Prediction $55,000 - $130,000

[THX 1138]

Relaying a message:

Approximately every 4 years the reward that miners receive for finding a block, halves. This event is referred to as the “Bitcoin halving” and was hardcoded by Satoshi Nakamoto into the Bitcoin protocol to enforce its deflationary monetary policy.

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What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?

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This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

You mentioned in your video that some people think the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the coming May 14, 2020 halving. I’m one of the proponents of the theory that the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the May 14, 2020 halving event.

A fundamental causation for my posited re-acceleration hypothesis is because I have analyzed the possibility that the legacy Bitcoin protocol is being “readopted” (analogous to the moonshot in the BTC price when legacy was first adopted in before 2013 and misdirection of adoption onto the impostor Core “soft fork” protocol) as warned by the powers-that-be. And I find evidence of this posited BTC price re-acceleration in the charts and also in the recent actions of some whales (c.f. also the Trilema.com/Dao attacker and what Bakkt did). All of the cryptocosm value will be refocused into the legacy Bitcoin with the coming “poison pill” game theory defense mechanism of the one proof-of-work chain to rule them all.

Below I will discuss some of the evidence of re-acceleration I find in the charts. Click the images to go to their source.

Readers may also be interested in my blog: McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

Let’s start with your chart comparing the 4 year period prior to each of the 2 prior halving events and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event (3 cases total). Note the prior ATH of the current (i.e. top-most on your chart) case was nearer to the start of the four year period analogous to the prior (i.e. middle on your chart) case. Whereas, the final “over the cliff” drop to the bottom and the sudden and steep (i.e. more accelerated both in time and price) out that of that bottom for the current case is more similar to the first (i.e. bottom-most on your chart) case. Also notice for first (i.e. bottom-most) case that the rise in the price before the halving was not as great as for the prior (i.e. middle) case, but the rise after the halving was much more accelerated (both in time and price) for the first (i.e. bottom-most) case as compared to the prior (i.e. middle) case. Thus the BTC price rise after the halving for the current case should be more accelerated than the prior case:



Next let’s refer to your chart comparing the level of the price at each subsequent halving event and the length of the “reaccumulation” (sic) phase before each halving event. Note that the prior (i.e. middle on this chart) case had both a higher price at and longer “reaccumulation” before its succeeding halving event than the first (i.e. left-most on this chart) case. Given an even longer “reaccumulation” before its succeeding halving event for current (i.e. right-most on this chart) case compared to the prior case, the BTC price should be even higher before and right at the coming May 14, 2020 halving as compared to the prior case:



Let’s refer to the stock-to-flows (aka S/F) model below to see that the BTC price at the halving event in the prior case was 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price:



How much higher than the prior case should the price be at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event? Note in the charts below that the BTC price in your “accumulation” and “expansion” phases for the prior case were either below (at the same timing before the halving given by similar shade of green color) or at best only up to the S/F model price:







Whereas, the current case has already achieved 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price in this “accumulation” and “expansion” phase:



Thus we should expect the BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event to be accelerated 1.6 × 1.6 = 2.6 times the ~$8800 S/F model price at the coming halving event. Additionally the current case has even more “reaccumulation” time than the prior case to build an even higher BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event. Thus the price at the coming halving event could be 3 ­– 4 times $8800 or roughly $26 – $35k. Additionally, I’m positing double of (i.e. two times) those prices projections at the halving due to third-order derivative (i.e. the rate of increase in the acceleration) mathematical effects which I don’t want to attempt to explain now.

Another reason the BTC price can front run the S/F model price rise at the halving is because PlanB recently unveiled the model.

Note I think the anonymous PlanB might be an agent (or an unwitting tool) of the bastard global elite who created Bitcoin are organizing the SegWit attack. PlanB (or someone at Twitter and Medium) banned and censored me from commenting on his Twitter and Medium blogs because I was getting too close to revealing these truths. I posit he has released this model to cause the market to front run the model and thus help achieve their goal of a nosebleed, moonshot BTC before the halving so that the hashrate difficulty will be so high when they initiate the SegWit donations attack that the Core protocol fork-off chain will become so slow that perhaps only a new block found every week or month. To drive the Core protocol fork-off to ~$0 price and complete their objective of surreptitiously concentrating most of the BTC in their own hands.

Also your projection for the ATH price after the coming halving is much, much too low. As I explained above, there is a reacceleration tweening between the prior and first cases. In those cases, the ATH price reached 3 and 10 times the S/F model price. Given the S/F model price will be $104k in 2021, the peak ATH should be at least $300k – $1 million. And there is a front running acceleration, so that peak ATH price could be attained as early as the end of 2020 so that McAfee doesn’t have to eat his dick. C.f. also my blog: McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

The current state of the RSI is indicating a sudden rise in the price is imminent analogous to 2013 (not 2017) for the reasons I explained above:

https://twitter.com/davthewave/status/1195128691099160576

I thus expect the rise in the BTC price to mimic the entire year of 2013 from this point forward. A moonshot rise pre-halving, then a dip with the SegWit attack killing Core and focusing the cryptocosm on legacy Bitcoin, then legacy Bitcoin rising above $300k before the end of 2020.

I really thought that once the price had moved into late 4 figures and 5 figures the percentages of the moves would be radically lower. People would be excited by a couple of hundred bucks. Yet it can still lose or gain 30-40% in a single day just as it could when it was 2 figures.

I don't know what that means, it doesn't seem healthy to me, but the possibility for truly barking moves is still more than alive and kicking.

If we think in terms of market cap and just how thin these markets are then it still doesn't really require huge sums to make giant moves. I expected it to be past that by now but it hasn't changed. It looks like it needs another monstrous move up before it does start to behave in a less shitcoiny manner and even then it might need another one.

Plausible reasons:

• Refer to my above readoption and thus reacceleration theory (which I know you think is loony and conspiratorial).
• The IRS ruled that spending any amount of digital virtual currency is a taxable event, thus hopeless for Bitcoin being adopted more as a currency.
• Bitcoin is being prepped as a 666 global reserve currency, to be used by $billionaires only. The coming SegWit attack will kickoff and destroy all the minions who think they own some cryptocurrency but will soon find out they do not.
• "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." (i.e. acceleration or second derivatives):
  
  https://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-09-15/albert-bartlett-on-message-about-exponential-growth-to-the-end/
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI1C9DyIi_8
  
  With exponential growth, the lily pond can be 50% covered on the 29th day and on the morning of the 30th day, 100% covered with lilies.
  
  Just because we can’t “see” visually the fact that the price is about to soon obviously front run the halving, does not mean the front running isn’t glaringly obvious mathematically. The front running is very well developed already. Most of you just can’t “see” it so glaringly yet because your eyes are not visualizing math.

For the price objectives and timing over the next months until the Bitcoin halving event, I recently wrote in private email several days ago before the drop below $8600 and before LTC had dropped below $60:

IMPORTANT. MAKE SURE YOU READ THIS.

Strangely the fractal pattern at the current juncture for LTC/USD could be correlated to either early to mid Feb 2019 or Jan 10 2019. It appears LTC may be accelerating in time (but not in proportional price) compared to the prior fractal pattern earlier this year. So perhaps LTC will not decline below $60 again in 2019.

Whereas, BTC appears to not be accelerating in time but is accelerating in proportional price.

By proportional price, I mean compare the price rises from the prior $22 and $3102 bottoms as the difference in price from the bottom divided by the price drop from the cliff edge at $56 and $6550.

The calculation shows that LTC is 93% and BTC is 260% (2.6X) of the proportional price rises thus far compared to the prior fractal.

Thus I compute projected prices for LTC of $82, $116, and $158. And for BTC  three consecutive monthly highs of $13k, $21k, and $32k.

But those prices do not have to occur at the same time, especially not the $82.

It seems the only way to fulfill the 0.01 LTC/BTC target is for LTC/USD to hit $82 while BTC/USD drops to $8200. Then the $116 can occur with a rocket shot in BTC to $13k. I was expecting that rocket shot at start of February, but everything may be accelerating in time.

Recently @infofront cited a Twitter post that said the LTC miners are preparing to disconnect their machines and pumping the LTC price so they can get out and liquidate their mining equipment (and LTC) at the best prices. Apparently they expect BTC dominance to return soon and they want to cash out.

BTC/USD may decline to $8200 before end of November with LTC rising to $82 as the very short altcoin season bleeds BTC for a month only. Then BTC slowly rising to $9600 before end of 2019. Then a rocket shot to $13k on Armstrong’s ECM turn date in the start of January. With LTC rising to $116. Then $158 and $21k in February. In March BTC hits $32k and LTC and all altcoins are declining. In April BTC goes supernova to $50+k. My target for a spike high was $78k.

Let’s revisit what may end up being a very, very important blog, perhaps even more important than Plan B’s stock-to-flows model:

https://medium.com/@positivecrypto/the-golden-ratio-multiplier-c2567401e12a

Focus on this chart:



Interestingly at the recent $13.8k high, the ratio to the 350 DMA was 2.4. That places it between the red and purple lines. Which thus corresponds to a tweening between the peaks in Q3 2012 and Q3 2013. Whereas the corresponding peak in 2015 commensurately before the halving was only up to the green line, so current fractal pattern is not corresponding to the 5 multiplier. And if we do get a rocket shot into the May (actually late April) 2020 halving, then the chart is going to look very fractally similar to the 2013 rocket shot.

So this means (as I had posited previously) that the multiplier for the coming peak in late April 2020 should be between 8 and 13. The 350 DMA is currently $7k and will rise to greater than $10k. Even if the multiplier does decline to 3 as that blog posits, that is still going to be in excess of $30k for the peak. So perhaps my $32k will be the peak and perhaps the rocket shot to $13k will not begin until February 2020.

However, I assert that the legacy Bitcoin is being readopted, which will cause a stampede effect and thus a reversion to the 8 or perhaps 10 multiplier. Again 8 would place it near to my $78k expectation.

Also the above linked Medium blog gives a very useful metric for timing the ATH, when the 111 DMA crossed over 2 multiplied by the 350 DMA. We should remember to watch for that. So estimating now roughly when the 3.5 month average price is higher than somewhere above $20+k. So if we take my 3 consecutive month price estimates $13k, $21k, and $32k and presuming some acceleration along the way to average is weighted more towards the lower prices. Also those are peak prices, with dips in between. And the 350 DMA is likely to be higher than $10k. So a quick moon shot to $50+k in April after a dip from $32k in March, is within the realm of mathematical possibility.

$32k is the minimum for the ATH before May 2020, presuming my thesis is correct that the price will be pumped in advance of a posited SegWit attack at the halving.

Interestingly the 350 DMA should be ~8+k by early January, so a 1.6 multiplier would be $13k. By February should be $8.5+k thus 2 to 2.4 multiplier provides my $21k target (remember the tweening). By March $9 – $10k, so the 3 – 4 multiplier will provide my $32k target.

My current scenario after studying carefully the fractal pattern correlation. The current U-shaped correction appears to be roughly 71% of the duration of the prior one earlier this year.

BTC should bottom on this current retracement below $8500 by Nov. 24. The ideal target is $8200. LTC will retrace to somewhere between $57 and $60.

On ~Nov 24, a spike up for LTC and BTC to ~$70 and ~$8700. Then a decline over next several days to $60 – $64 and $8 – $8.4k. Then another spike up on ~Dec. 5 to ~$75 and $9.7k. Then a decline over next couple of days to ~$65 and ~$8.5k. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up for LTC coupled with a slow rise for BTC to ~$80 and $8.7k. Then slow rise by ~Dec. 22 to ~$83 and $8.9k.

Thus I see LTC/BTC reaching only a maximum of 0.0093, although perhaps 0.0098 is possible on some intraday spike divergence for LTC and BTC. I would probably sell LTC at $80 and thus 0.0092 is likely the best I could achieve. Given an entry at 0.0069, that would be a 33% gain in BTC, if repurchasing BTC immediately after selling LTC. Those who entered at 0.006 might get a 50% gain in BTC if they time it perfectly.

Another strategy might be to sell maybe half at $75 and then if LTC drops to $65 repurchase for a 15% gain, else (if LTC does not drop) purchase BTC for ~$8.5k (because it seems BTC must drop otherwise it can’t rise to $8.7k), so that is still a 27% gain in BTC is purchased LTC when LTC/BTC was 0.0069.

Frankly only a 33% potential gain (relative to BTC) is not all that incredibly enticing given the risk of the volatility of LTC. Timing may be end up elusive.

GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS

I did the same calculations for GRS and it’s about 3X leveraged in price compared to the prior fractal earlier this year. On ~Nov 24, GRS should rise to ~0.27 which if BTC is $8700, then GRS/BTC will be 0.000031. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up ~$0.48, and thus GRS/BTC 0.000055. So I think GRS/BTC has better leverage and can double your BTC, but you must have your sell limit orders waiting because the spikes can be completed in a couple of hours sometimes. A strategy would be to sell maybe half at $0.27 and attempt to reload at $0.23 or purchase BTC at $8700.

In this scenario, the rocket shot is timed perfectly with Armstrong’s monumental ECM turn date, so ~Jan 1, 2020, a rocket shot to ~$116 and ~$12.5k. That will be the last chance to trade LTC for BTC. BTC may have an intraday (or next day) spike low of $11k. So if you sold at say $110 and repurchased $11.5k, that would be 0.096, thus increasing potential BTC gains to 40% (if purchased when LTC/BTC is 0.0069) or 65% if entered when LTC/BTC was 0.006. But that’s going to be some chaotic timing. Hope the exchanges don’t get slammed.

In this scenario, during the rest of January LTC will decline to ~$86 and BTC will oscillate but reach a peak of $13k. I wonder if we will get another flash crash in late January to $10k this time, mimicking the flash crash in April 2019.

In this timing scenario, before Feb 12 (2020), BTC will spike up again to $21k. Within a week a decline to perhaps ~$17.3k. Then another rocket shot to ~$32k by ~March 2.

The market would be somewhat confused at this point because the ATH would have been significantly exceeded well before the halving. Thus I would expect some sort of deeper and slightly longer correction. Maybe back to $21k again to throw many off the train who are looking to repurchase below the 2017 $20k ATH before the halving currently targeted for May 14:

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

That and including the uncertainty about whether the price will indeed go higher than ~$32k before any SegWit attack is why I will probably take all the cash I am going to need at $32k, then perhaps repurchase half of what I sold if the price drops to say $21k before the halving. Also I will be keeping my eye on the 111 DMA vs. twice the 350 DMA as mentioned in my prior email. Such an extended decline might be necessary to keep that 111 DMA from prematurely crossing down under twice the 350 DMA.

So then in April suddenly a moonshot to $50+k. Again my target is $78k but I will reaccess at that time after looking at all factors including where is the 350 DMA at that juncture.

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[Oceat]

If the history repeat then we might pass the ATH of Bitcoin though its not guarantee because we still need more investment and demand for Bitcoin to push the price but I'm very postive that 2020 will bring a good year for crypto market that is why I keep holding my Bitcoin until the halving is finished.

Everyone could predict their own price but nobody knows when and what is the actual price after halving because usually halving occur mostly in December or maybe in 2021 in December. This is how volatile and complicated the Bitcoin itself while nobody knows the exact date of that said $55,000 - $130,000. It's just too exaggerated to give a random numbers while the market price today is under $9,000.

[bL4nkcode]

That price is too steep, though it might happen but not on 2020, BTC value don't go high overnight if we will take a look back on after every halving. Even there's course it drops few days after the halving though not quite low. We should expect price will surge or might even decline 6-9 months after the halving.
But hoping it will not disappoint the community

[Duzter]

That price is too steep, though it might happen but not on 2020, BTC value don't go high overnight if we will take a look back on after every halving. Even there's course it drops few days after the halving though not quite low. We should expect price will surge or might even decline 6-9 months after the halving.
But hoping it will not disappoint the community

Every halving hasn't shown immediate growth with bitcoins followed by altcoins. From my view there will be growth as the past time, which is sure and beyond that I expect certain percentage of growth based on the adoption that has taken place all around in a short term. The decline doesn't go after 6-9 months, probably this starts immediately as whales prepare to panic the market and profit out of it.

[1Referee]

So, if you get it to halving how the hell could the cost make it go to $55k to $130k? It is not possible, even on the greatest of possibilities it is around 20 thousand dollars and that is a really high stretch. So all we have right now is $55k to $130k all because people hyped up the bitcoin halving way more than they should and we are predicting on that?

The price has always been front running the hashrate, which if given enough time, will come back closer to the actual cost of mining depending on the difficulty at that time. The bigger the difference between the cost of mining and the price, the more incentive miners have to sell and close that gap. It's literally a race to be the fastest seller within the mining space.

Hashrate is lagging behind the price development up to six months depending on how willing Bitmain & Co are to send out the purchased hardware. That's why the hashrate can keep going up while the price has been going down for a good while. In case there is no price recovery, that hashrate will be withdrawn again, which is what we witnessed in 2018. I'm pretty sure that people still remember the fud about a looming death spiral.

[darkangel11]

That price is too steep, though it might happen but not on 2020, BTC value don't go high overnight if we will take a look back on after every halving. Even there's course it drops few days after the halving though not quite low. We should expect price will surge or might even decline 6-9 months after the halving.
But hoping it will not disappoint the community

55k is definitely not too high if you look at the history of Bitcoin. Even 100k is not too high.
In 2017 we went from 900 to 20k in a year. When we broke previous ATH we went times 20! Breaking 20k would take us to 200k if it happens again. I know we can't compare because it takes a lot more money to reach those levels but when we were below 1 k people were talking about the 2013 bull market and saying the same thing that we went from 300 to 1000 in a month but a 3x rise from ATH won't happen because it's a lot of money. Do you even remember today what people were saying when we were going through 3k? No? I don't remember it too because it was so fast.

[aardvark15]

At the halving g I predict the price will be around $20,000. Over the course of the next year after the halving, I predict that the price will rise to greater than $100,000.

[boltz]

If this price happens then we will all dance like crazy and I hope we gonna trow a bitcoin party on every local boards in order to celebrate this milestone! Bitcoin halv will not trigger that huge bull run tho but it will fuel it with necessary to burst over 40k$ for sure and from then anything can happen as we can stabilize around 50-60k$ or we can go over 100k$ in a moment! Some says that in 2023 Bitcoin will be 200k$ and my friends thinks as well and so far they predicted the price quite nicely.

[barabarian1]

if bitcoin has the same cycle as 2012 and 2016 then of course in 2020 bitcoin might be able to reach a new ATH of $ 100,000. of course all bitcoin holders and users expect bitcoin to get to the moon in 2020 after dividing in May.
I also hope that the price of bitcoin will be bull but I don't expect it to be too high. because if I expect too high then I will be disappointed our price I expect does not match reality. I speculate the price of bitcoin to $ 30,000 after halving. if later the price of bitcoin can be higher, of course I am very grateful.

[pooya87]

the run-up to $14k in my view was the result of the reverse-bubble burst which caused a big surge of money coming back in and shoot the price up.

One of the more sensible explanation for April 2019 pump, especially considering that some claim that it was actually Bakkt who caused it by buying 100k BTC for their service.

Since OP is just copy/pasted some info about halving the only thing worth commenting on is price after the last two halvings. There is no doubt that in both cases a rather large pump occurred, but only after a while, not instantaneously at halving time. The question that is worth billions of dollars is whether the story will repeat itself or this time it may take an unexpected turn?

Considering the past and present price, the next ATH could be at least x10 or x20 from the current price which brings us to the numbers close to $100k or maybe even $200k. But we also know that the correction will be brutal, and it can delete up to 90% of the maximum value.

i believe that the more we move forward as the market size grows, the less drastic the big swings are going to be. meaning both rises and falls are going to happen in a more reasonable percentages. it is about more adoption and more packed order books that makes it so that when a big buy or a sell take place the price wouldn't jump up or down 30%!
so with that logic this upcoming rally price should go up to about $300k since last time price went up from $150 (the bottom) to $19900 which is 13166%. with the current bottom being $3200 that means reaching $424,512 which if it becomes smaller we should reach $300k instead

[bitvalak]

It's hard to predict numbers, which is clear there will always be interesting surprises after halving occurs.
It takes 4-8 months after halving the surprise will be seen. The current price I think is still very reasonable to buy.

[samuraijin]

The count down of the next halving scalability was almost there, https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ link shows, 182 days more to go.

Everyone waiting for the best result on this becoming promising event in bitcoin price, the next halving. But the real fact is no one knows the market situation is and it is an unpredictable price movement. Let's time can tell and will reveal the truth.

Thank you for sharing.

180 days from now let big investors catch a lot of small traders who sell cheap bitcoin at this time, I think they are still playing until now to catch cheap bitcoin before halving happens, so I just sit smoking cigarettes to see price movements at the end of this year too , will they continue to play with current prices pushing lower or vice versa? all waiting for that

[error08]

There is no doubt about bitcoin price will be skyrocket once again after the halving, and seeing some prediction where the price might be headed makes people excited about it.
Even the last ATH is a big number for a digital currency, we have witnessed a miracle but it will be repeated again in 2020.
There is nothing rational to do except stockpiling more bitcoin into your wallet before it gets too expensive for us and people will complain and regret didn't buy it when it below $10K.

[daarul50]

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140. Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

the problem is :

in 2012 and 2016 halving, people still put a lot of doubts in bitcoin saying bitcoin will have zero value, majority did not believe that bitcoin will be worthy in the future and then the price skyrocketed, proven they all wrong.
nowadays majority so over confident about the upcoming bitcoin halving making speculation it will worth 5 to 20times from the current price , guess what should happen? the price fall down , prove the majority wrong?

a little bit confusing , i just don't want to act over confidently , it was never safe for your health  

[Lucius]

so with that logic this upcoming rally price should go up to about $300k since last time price went up from $150 (the bottom) to $19900 which is 13166%. with the current bottom being $3200 that means reaching $424,512 which if it becomes smaller we should reach $300k instead

Personally, I'm also thinking in that direction, some things have to change, but it will take time to reach price stability. We can see how easy it is to pump or bring down the price, the market is still very small, and the total MC is just some $150 billion, which is a very insignificant figure compared to the gold or the stock market.

I have nothing against your logic, $300k would be impressive, and even half of it would be an incredible amount. But I always ask myself who or what will drive the next big pump, where the money will come from, will ordinary small investors get caught up in the FOMO trap again?

[Inkdatar]

It's hard to predict numbers, which is clear there will always be interesting surprises after halving occurs.
It takes 4-8 months after halving the surprise will be seen. The current price I think is still very reasonable to buy.

The predicted price above is really high, and indeed we cannot foretell and difficult to judge this early if what price could reach when there is halving to happen. The good thing to do for some is to accumulate btc who knows price possibly could pump again. It is good for us who truly waits for bitcoin predicted price above to reach of course many users could benefit this skyrocket in the market.

[pixie85]

Right after the first halving in 2012, the Bitcoin price rose from $12 to $140. Weeks after the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin started a rally that propelled its price from $582 to $20,000.

the problem is :

in 2012 and 2016 halving, people still put a lot of doubts in bitcoin saying bitcoin will have zero value, majority did not believe that bitcoin will be worthy in the future and then the price skyrocketed, proven they all wrong.
nowadays majority so over confident about the upcoming bitcoin halving making speculation it will worth 5 to 20times from the current price , guess what should happen? the price fall down , prove the majority wrong?

a little bit confusing , i just don't want to act over confidently , it was never safe for your health  

The price has no mind of its own and it doesn't want to do anything or prove anyone wrong. People see the halving as a catalyst for growth because of math.
If the reward gets halved the value of new coins will have to double.

Even if the price of the existing coins will not miners won't sell new coins for 8k USD but will want to make some money mining them and wait until the price is at least 16k. This will create a shortage of supply and those who decide to buy will have to buy from holders not from miners.

[Hamphser]

It's hard to predict numbers, which is clear there will always be interesting surprises after halving occurs.
It takes 4-8 months after halving the surprise will be seen. The current price I think is still very reasonable to buy.

The predicted price above is really high, and indeed we cannot foretell and difficult to judge this early if what price could reach when there is halving to happen. The good thing to do for some is to accumulate btc who knows price possibly could pump again. It is good for us who truly waits for bitcoin predicted price above to reach of course many users could benefit this skyrocket in the market.

I'm not do sure if after the halving there would be a price hike after that because if you look at the previous halving it takes more than a month or a year before the bitcoin skyrocketed. So that being said, the price that OP predicted was way too much if he only think it would happen in just a single day. The price of bitcoin need to walk a thousand miles first before it could actually grow to what others have expected.

[Wexlike]

It's hard to predict numbers, which is clear there will always be interesting surprises after halving occurs.
It takes 4-8 months after halving the surprise will be seen. The current price I think is still very reasonable to buy.

The predicted price above is really high, and indeed we cannot foretell and difficult to judge this early if what price could reach when there is halving to happen. The good thing to do for some is to accumulate btc who knows price possibly could pump again. It is good for us who truly waits for bitcoin predicted price above to reach of course many users could benefit this skyrocket in the market.

I'm not do sure if after the halving there would be a price hike after that because if you look at the previous halving it takes more than a month or a year before the bitcoin skyrocketed. So that being said, the price that OP predicted was way too much if he only think it would happen in just a single day. The price of bitcoin need to walk a thousand miles first before it could actually grow to what others have expected.

Is anyone still doubting that the 7.5 to 10k spike was a wrong direction squeeze?

Short and long squeezes happen simply as a result of an over-leveraged market. Both right-direction (short squeeze in bull market / long squeeze in bear market) and wrong-direction (short squeeze in bear marke / long squeeze in bull market) are probably about equally likely to occur.

Most people get caught up in the direction of the squeeze as an indicator: "It's going up because the shorts are being punished for being wrong". This leads them to believe the correct direction going forward must be whatever direction the squeeze was in, as if the truth finally came out. But the squeeze itself holds little truth to it.

[veleten]

halving does impact the price growth , but it is not a switch-like increase
i.e. the price growth is usually delayed and you can't really say that 500 to 20.000$ growth was due to halving since the events were very far away on the time scale , over 7 months in total
I think that 10-20x increase potential is very real , although the figures could be way less due to the high base value this time
if we start from 7-8.000$ price , we could get to 25-30.000$ after the halving, but the figures like 55-130.000$ while possible
are not too realistic at the moment , but if BAKKT increases volumes and there are more positive contributing factors and faster adoption ,  we could see 100.000$ easily
the problem how sustainable that  level would be and I don't want to see the 10-20k dollars daily price swings if it happens