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Brazil: Serie A :

Flamengo have 5 games left to play, everyone else playing this weekend has 6, so 18 points still up for grabs as a maximum.

Top 4 qualify for Copa Libertadores group stage, next two for the Copa second stage and the following six team will play Copa Sudamericana next season, Athletico Paranaense are exempt from these calculations as they already have a Copa Libertadores group stage spot courtesy of winning the Copa do Brasil, so, for example, if they finish top six, places down to 7th will qualify for Copa Libertadores. Bottom four are relegated.

Tie breakers are points, number of wins, goal difference, goals scored, h2h ................in that order.

A few words about all the Saturday/Sunday games.......

Fluminense- Atletico Mineiro

Fluminense are 17th, one point from safety, but we have spoken of them often as having more ability/talent than most teams we usually find near the foot of the table at this stage of the season and they are top scorers amongst the bottom 7. Back in September I wrote .......... Flu's last two home starts illustrate what they are capable of and their unpredictable nature, they beat Copa Libertadores contenders Internacional 2-1 and lost 1-0 to struggling CSA, in the first they "won" attempts 22-15, on target 6-4, big chances 3-1, hit woodwork 1-0 , attempts inside box 14-5, passes 640-412 , completions 89%-84%, in the second, for the same categories they were 33-5, 12-3, 3-0, 1-0, 16-3, 686-344, 91%-73%. They were worthy winners of the first and could not lose the second with those numbers again even if they tried ! Looking at their stats for the 15 games played it is difficult not to see them as midtable level.

Atletico are six points above the drop zone and whilst they have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 , they have collected 5 points from the three most recent to stop the rot and end a dire run of results. AMG were 4th with six wins through ten rounds, subsequently they went 4-4-11 (1X2) scoring at the rate of 0.95 goals per game, until the very recent upturn. They are winless in 11 on the road, scoring just 7 goals and I doubt they can match the motivation of Flu today, especially given that the host entertain second placed Palmeiras in their next home start.

Flu are good, or maybe it is more true to say, at their best, through the middle third of games, they have scored 12 goals between the 31st and 45th minute, with 18 of 32 coming during the 31st- 60th period, 10/16 through this third of the game in home starts. This gives an interesting angle to "in play" betting, with AMG having a 1-6 goal difference on the road between the 31st and 45th minute.

In running options are "obvious", but I will suggest 2 units Fluminense -0.5 ball 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket.

Santos- Sao Paulo

This is a derby fixture with only 70 km separating the two teams. Santos are 3rd eight points clear of 4th and with absolutely no reason to play for anything other than the win. SP are 5th, four points adrift of 4th and three ahead of Inter and Corinthians the other teams battling for Copa spots and those two meet in SP today.

Santos are traditionally strong at home, with a 62-18-11 (1X2) record and 63.1% win rate since the start of 2015, scoring an average of 1.86 goals across those 91 games. They tend to start on the front foot too, with a 17-4 home first half goal difference this season. SP have only conceded 12 away goals all season, but 7 have come before the break and they trailed at HT in derby games with both Corinthians (1-0) and Palmeiras (2-0). Santos have looked the better team this season and the league table agrees, albeit maybe not to the same level as what we have seen with our own eyes, typical of some comments about them were the following from the first of an early season trio of games (league and cup) with Bahia ............. Bahia got into the SP area FAR too easily and the movement of the visiting forwards was too slick and quick for the home backline and defenders were losing their man time and time again.
There has been far too little substance in the SP attacks, as they are set up to (overly) protect that backline , they have failed to score in 7/12 starts and in the first half in just one of nine games, with Santos so strong at home before the break, that feels like the best way to approach this.

1.75 units Santos -0.5 ball 2.79 first half betting asian line/Sportmarket.

Corinthians - Internacional

These two are tied on 49 points, they are six clear of Bahia in 8th, so at least one should qualify for Copa Libertadores, with currently 6th placed Athletico Paranaense out of the equation ( see above). Inter hold the edge by virtue of having won two more games than Corinthians.

Easy to see this being a tight hard fought encounter given the league positions, how these two play and what is at stake and the last 20 h2h meetings have averaged 1.95 goals and only one has produced more than three goals, so a shoot out would surprise. Not a game I like or have any strong feelings about , so I will leave it there.

Gremio- Flamengo

This is the fixture I touched upon in midweek, ahead of Flamengo's derby with Vasco ..............

The Clássico dos Milhões is one of the biggest derby games in Brazil and will be the last Rio derby for either team this season. Champions elect Flamengo have a 10 point lead at the top of the table and an awesome home record, going 31-3-4 here in their last 38 starts in the league, which is an astonishing 81.58% win rate. Of those 31 wins, 19 have come along with a clean sheet, 10 by conceding a single goal and two with two goals allowed and, 21 by 2+ , meaning that they have won 55.26% of those 38 games by at least two goals. That suggests they are value today at odds of close to evens to win by 2, but we have a lot more to consider.

First up, this is that big derby game and form often goes out of the window in these and one of those 7 games Fla failed to win in that incredible sequence was a 1-1 draw with Vasco last season, also, there is that 10 point lead and Flamengo do not need to win, as long as they keep ticking over they will be crowned champions in the next couple of weeks and it would need two wins for Fla (today and away to Gremio, a very tough fixture, on Sunday) , combined with a loss for Palmeiras, to get it all done this weekend . Further, Vasco are decent on the road , a 5-5-6 away record and only 17 goals conceded is very good for a mid table team in Serie A and comfortably the best outside the Copa Libertadores places. Above all else and, this is hanging over Flamengo like the Sword of Damocles, is the Copa Libertadores final with defending champions River Plate in 10 days time, which will now take place in Lima, Peru, the original venue of Santiago in Chile having been officially changed just two days ago. That means a lot of plans being altered and a six hour flight from Rio, but I guess the clubs knew this was likely for some time.

Anyway, a very tough build up to that for Flamengo with a fierce derby today against a rival who will offer no quarter and then the two hour flight down to Porto Alegre to face a Gremio team out for revenge after Fla beat them 5-0 in the Copa semi final second leg in Rio just three weeks ago. They know that River Plate will be fresher and just asked just to play one game in build up and the Argentine side will doubtless rotate for that and look only towards the final, Fla seem unlikely to do likewise, as incredible as that might sound. Head Coach Jorge Jesus has simply refused to rest players and apart from veteran full backs Rafinha and Filipe Luis being allowed the occasional game off, it has been full strength almost every game and has it has worked so well, it is difficult to see him changing that policy at this late stage. I can understand it for tonight, but surely there has to be some temptation to mix things up on Sunday in a game where the opposition feels hurt and humiliated and it would not take much to see the contest boil over. Anyway, regardless of what Jesus decides, a Copa Libertadores final is a big thing and once in a lifetime, if they are lucky, for most players . It is only the second ever final for Fla, the other coming in 1981 and no one wants to miss out and that will be at the back, maybe even forefront, of the mind of most players as they take to the field tonight and Sunday.

As strong as Flamengo have been as host, they are now playing their biggest rival and with that fixture directly ahead of their biggest single game in almost four decades ! Also, Vasco have conceded just a single goal in five + games (490+ minutes) on the road ,not conceded more than one goal in 11 straight away games and they have lost just two of 10 of these derbies as the visiting side , conceding only 7 goals total. All things considered, best value for me with .........

Gremio are 4th, but might well be the second best team in Brazil this season, losing in the Copa do Brasil semi final on penalties and at the same stage of the Copa Libertadores to Fla in that aforementioned game. They have often rotated in the league giving the cups priority and I do not doubt they could have had another 6-8 more Serie A points on board without that. Therefore, the loss to Fla was not only hugely disappointing, but humiliating, in their last 24 starts, Gremio have conceded a maximum of one goal 20 times, allowed 2 on three occasions and that five to Fla ! They will definitely be out for revenge, the visitors would doubtless like to take something from today, but priority has to be the game in Peru next week and avoiding injuries and the 4-4 draw with Vasco in midweek was not normal, they had only conceded more than a single goal once in their 23 previous starts and then only two and no one will convince me that Fla were not heavily distracted and we can expect more of the same today.

Fla have a trio of key players suspended in Willian Arao, Gerson and Bruno Henrique, which leaves them short in central midfield, the three have 22 goals and 10 assists between them in the league, each played in that oft mentioned Copa Libertadores game with Henrique scoring the breakthrough goal.

1.75 units Gremio -0.75 ball 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket.

Athletico Paranaense- Botafogo

Hosts have nothing much to play for since winning the Copa Do Brasil ( see above) but they are one of the better teams in Brazil, relaxed and they have subsequently gone 6-6-1 (1X2) losing only to leaders Flamengo, who have been carrying all before them, in that sequence CAP faced six (at the time) top 6 teams and took 12 points from losing positions which hardly suggests a team going through the motions. As a host they are as strong as anyone and last month I noted ........... They are also VERY good as host and have a 71% (22) win rate through 31 games here in Curitiba in the league , averaging 2.11 goals per game and a couple of the games they failed to win in that sequence came inbetween two legged cup ties, they rarely lose as host when fully committed.

Botafogo got that much needed win over Avai on Monday .........

Botafogo are struggling too, they are in the final relegation spot and only a win will take them out and actually above two teams, so a huge incentive. It was hard to see them in this situation earlier in the season, they were 9th last season and through 10 rounds this time round 6th, 20 rounds 10th, but they are 2-0-9 subsequently and have scored just 7 goals in that sequence. Having said all that, they are 7-1-7 at home, which compares favourably enough with Avai's 12 road losses and Bota won the reverse fixture 2-0. Of those seven wins here in Rio, six have come by a single goal, Avai's 12 away day defeats have seen six by one goal and five by exactly two, so few real hammerings, just the one and that at Gremio who are a very good team. Next two home starts (they have only three remaining after today) for Bota are Corinthians and Internacional, who are both fighting for top 6, so things will not get any easier and if you cannot beat Avai under these circumstances then perhaps you do not deserve to stay up. Botafogo are no longer a major player and did spend one recent season in Serie B, but they are usually top 10 (7 of last 8 campaigns in the top flight) and have (almost) double the points of Avai (33 to 17) and their need is great.

They won that 2-0 but are not safe yet, however, this will be far tougher and Botafogo have already lost 11 times on the road (12/17 away starts) and they have not won here in Curitiba in 9 visits, failing to score in six.

Bahia- Palmeiras

Bahia are 9th , six points off the two teams directly above them and those Copa Libertadores dreams, which looked like coming true just a month or two ago, have all but disappeared and they have taken just 9 points from a possible 33.

Palmeiras are second and ahead of a trip to Vasco da Gama 9 days ago I wrote about them still hopeful of taking the title race down to the wire ......

I bigged Vasco up in the middle of last month ahead of a home game with Fortaleza and also spoke about their previous game which was with Avai, so all useful for today's trio of games ..............

Avai and Vasco da Gama played out a very disappointing 0-0 draw in Florianópolis in midweek, until late it looked like only Vasco were really trying to win and for the second game in a row they will be disappointed not to have scored, they played well and created chances in both (other was a 1-0 home loss to a strong Santos team) and their +24 ITB numbers from their last six starts highlight that and those are top 4-5 not 14th place stats, they are not in those lofty positions however and lie just 5 points above the drop zone and will be looking to stop the rot here. Fortaleza got their desired result in midweek, beating the bottom club Chapecoense 2-0, but have two home games next week, which might take precedence as they have travelled SP-Fortaleza-Rio in the last eight days which will be 11,000 km + by this evening. Smaller teams have to pick their battles to survive in Brazil and you feel that Fortaleza's was on Wednesday and then, lie ahead. Vasco have some very talented offensive players who's abilities have not fully been reflected in goals , I was very taken with 17 yo Talles Magno and 20 yo Marrony against Santos, playing as two of the front three , Marrony is available again and I hope they return to the three up top, Talles only turned 17 in June, he is a ridiculous talent, can play anywhere in a front three and I guess, has half of Europe watching his progress, despite playing only 900+ minutes of first team football.

Avai are and were in big trouble and think they are going to survive by playing for 0-0 for 80 minutes and trying to win in the final 10, that is ok if you are playing Flamengo, but they do the same even against a fellow struggler and midweek was the final straw, how can you show so little ambition ? If you are not good enough, fine, but give yourself a chance and for 90 minutes , not 10 !

Vasco have gone 3-2-1 subsequently and the 11 points gave taken them to 11th and safety, the loss came here in Rio versus Gremio who are of a similar level to Palmeiras, most would say today's opposition is tougher. I am not 100% convinced of that, but do feel that Vasco might think they have done enough for now and after a brief blip, Palmeiras have won 3 in a row and 5/6 and are perhaps unfortunate that Flamengo are so good as they still trail them by 8 points. However, they are certainly not giving up with 24 points up for grabs and with Fla still to travel to the teams in second and third , the leaders also have a Copa Libertadores final in Chile in 17 days time versus the defending champions, that comes just days after they play Palmeiras and there is a danger that Flamengo will get distracted. Anyway a chance to put some pressure on the leader with Fla playing a derby game tomorrow.

Vasco are without both starting defensive midfielders in Bruno Gomes and Richard due to suspension, the latter has played almost every minute of games available since coming back into the team on Matchday 10, but have lost the last three he has missed without scoring and was defensive MOTM when the two teams met in the reverse fixture.

They won that 2-1 , but drew 1-1 in their derby game with Corinthians in their only subsequent start, however, Flamengo also dropping two points in midweek kept the dream alive and Palmeiras know what a tough game the leader has today. Palmeiras have won on 4 of 5 visits here to Lauro Freitas ("winning" the second half in the last two), they have a -5 first half road goal difference this season, but are +6 after the break and if news comes through at the half (the two games kick off at the same time) that Fla are losing or at least not winning, Palmeiras should be very motivated for the second half.

Gremio-Palmeiras double is tempting and makes a lot of sense and I will be very keen on Palmeiras late in this game if they need a result and Fla are struggling, think I will wait until the break before getting involved.

Fortaleza- CSA

CSA are 18th , six points and two wins from safety with a 1-3-12 road record, back to back promotions have caught up with them and they have looked doomed from early summer.

They came up with Fortaleza who were champions and 9 points better in B and this time round are 10 ahead, four clear of the drop zone with one more win likely to go a long way to securing survival. They will be looking for those three points here, with their next two starts against Copa teams and they will be buoyed by a 2-0 win in the reverse fixture. Fortaleza tend to hit the ground running as host with a +7 first half goal difference which falls to -3 in the second period. CSA are a nightmarish 0-14 ( scored-conceded) on the road through the first 45 minutes and with Fortaleza having led at the break (1-0 and 2-0) in the last two league h2h meetings, that surely looks the way to go.

Jonathan Gomez ,5 goals and three assists for CSA, which is a lot of goal threat to be missing from a team who have only scored 21 goals is suspended. Also absent is first choice defensive midfielder Dawhan which is a position CSA are not exactly flush in, they have taken only one point from the seven games in which he played 15 minutes or less, scoring just a single goal.

Fortaleza half time -0.5 ball 2.24 or 90 minutes -1 ball 2.04 , either for 1.75 units, you can choose, I marginally prefer the former.

Chapecoense- Ceara

There is a lot of sympathy for Chapecoense because of the Colombian plane crash and many will be sorry to see them depart Serie A, but that looks a done deal now as they sit in 19th , effectively 14 points from safety and I suspect plans for next season have long been made for second tier level.

Ceara survived by 4 points last season, their first back in the top flight and they would be delighted with a repeat. They currently lie sixth from the bottom, two points above the relegation zone, but with two "big name clubs" immediately below them and with their next four starts (and only five remain after today) versus top 8 teams and it is all too easy to see things getting a little uneasy, if they are not so already, without a win today. The visitors are 2-2-12 on the road which doesn't offer too much encouragement, but those numbers start to go out of the window over the closing weeks of the season when motivation, heart and desire are the overriding factors to consider. They might be happy with a point, especially if Fluminense ( see above) come up short on Saturday, but we are not expecting that and anyway, better to take the points whilst they are available.

1.75 units Ceara -0.5 ball 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket.

There are a few (not as many as usual) international call ups, only one of real note is the Athletico Paranaense goalkeeper Santos (bit confusing !), CAP have lost 4/7 in his absence, 6/25 (none of the last 12) when he has started. Enough to put me off the host in that game at low, albeit understandable odds.

Best of luck all.