CHART 2016 VS 2019

[Ziskinberg]

I like to believe that your analysis will happen but at the same time I also have to get myself ready for a possible big dump.
It's been a while since we see a good market movement for BTC that's why people are longing for another bull run to arrive and hopefully it will happen so soon.

If btc will touch $12, 000, well and good, it could happen just like what it did this year where it touched $13,000, we are not far from now, if BTC did it from $3K+, it could certainly make it from $8K + .

[Theb]

Might be a similar pattern last three years ago but it doesn't guarantee that it will repeat itself on what had happened during that time. You still need to treat each pattern as a unique case where you don't need to consider anything about its past movements prior to that pattern, the pattern/formation can still either make or break depending on the supporting indicators such like what you have given which is RSI and others like volume and MACD. It's a good thing that you have recognized the falling wedge pattern now but it's not good that you are analyzing it in a way that you are comparing it's historical price movement and basing your analysis on it.

Maybe you are right but always remember this fractal have a possibility to repeat itself no one know what will happen to bitcoin price in a couple of hours, days, week or months.
Many people are expecting a good price run before the 2020 halving but like what a said no one will know what will happen.

But as a trader would you really bet on that "possibility" to happen or will you base your trade on what the current scenario is telling you? This is what I hate about historical price action comparisons, they always pull out what had happened two to five years ago and say that "because this had happened in the past this will surely happen in the future since they have similar movements" yes candles might have the similar position but does it tell everything? Of course not you still need consider what the chart is telling you now than what the chart has told you in the past.

[AakZaki]

$8300- $8400 has been skipped, it looks like this decline will continue around $7500- $7700.  because I see from a number of indicators it still shows a falling trend.  and if you go up it might still be waiting at the beginning of the year  and I don't think there's good news about bitcoin right now.

[Iceblast]

we must try to think critically about the chat patterns of the increase and decrease in graphics. because if we know the increase might be the same. but a different year of making the increase could be on a different path. but if indeed it can happen and is true, we will face the best situation of crypto in the future.

[NewRanger]

$8300- $8400 has been skipped, it looks like this decline will continue around $7500- $7700.  because I see from a number of indicators it still shows a falling trend.  and if you go up it might still be waiting at the beginning of the year  and I don't think there's good news about bitcoin right now.

i see bitcoin price will down again below 7500 - 7700 .   i found first resistance on around $7270 . this is strong support that will tested again as valid support or not.  and the worst scenario  bitcoin price could hit $5700 again which is on this level already be strong /  key support. in chandlestik analisys, there is no reversal sign at all. on big time frame , bitcoin and other coin still in bearish trend.maybe bitcoin price on $5700 will touched again before halving, maybe this next or early next year. we need triger to make bitcoin price still again.

[k@suy]

$8300- $8400 has been skipped, it looks like this decline will continue around $7500- $7700.  because I see from a number of indicators it still shows a falling trend.  and if you go up it might still be waiting at the beginning of the year  and I don't think there's good news about bitcoin right now.

I am not sure if bitcoin will make an ATH again like what it has been happen years ago , bitcoin price continues to fall, the chart says that bitcoin value is falling down unlike what it has been happened on 2016, by next year second quarter I think it will go up again there is a possibility but I have mo assurance on it only trust is all I have.

[BitcoinsGreat]

$8300- $8400 has been skipped, it looks like this decline will continue around $7500- $7700.  because I see from a number of indicators it still shows a falling trend.  and if you go up it might still be waiting at the beginning of the year  and I don't think there's good news about bitcoin right now.

Bitcoin may dump in the short run but in the bigger time frame it will rise high and broke its previous records. The problem is that when bitcoin prices start to fall, people become disappointed and never look at the big picture. The bitcoin prices cannot straight go up, there will be a lot of pump and dump in between.

[carlfebz2]

Might be a similar pattern last three years ago but it doesn't guarantee that it will repeat itself on what had happened during that time. You still need to treat each pattern as a unique case where you don't need to consider anything about its past movements prior to that pattern, the pattern/formation can still either make or break depending on the supporting indicators such like what you have given which is RSI and others like volume and MACD. It's a good thing that you have recognized the falling wedge pattern now but it's not good that you are analyzing it in a way that you are comparing it's historical price movement and basing your analysis on it.

When it comes to RSI- i do always check out for divergence which do have a solid confirmation for possible switch of trend.
Checking out past or histories of patterns is common for you as a trader yet you can make this as a reference but it is bad
to rely and presume that things would happen again because we all know that crypto is really very unpredictable.

[BitHodler]

The problem is that when bitcoin prices start to fall, people become disappointed and never look at the big picture. The bitcoin prices cannot straight go up, there will be a lot of pump and dump in between.

Well said. In a market people look at how the price behaves to determine what the actual state of the asset is, which means that as long as the price is going up, people are likely to consider it a fantastic asset to invest in.

The problem with a lot of those who entered this space in 2017 is that they saw the price increase significantly for months straight, which they apparently believed that it was very normal for crypto.

Initially they made some decent paper gains, but these gains turned into severe paper losses, especially for those who kept holding their coins because the general sentiment within crypto is to keep holding....

[Claudiu.Pana]

From a close observation, I came to know a very similar pattern of both year for this time, that's why I also assumed that November and December would be the most suitable time to invest and trade in this platform, not only that but also Bitcoin price will automatically increase when this time comes, From my joining to this platform, I have a belief that Bitcoin price will increase at an increasing rate but 2017 was a mystery, Basically, people want Bitcoin value as like as 2017 but it's not the base of this platform, definitely it was a flook, but the price will increase for sure, so 2020 will be the most exciting year.

Invest carefully, usually people cashout during this period as well.. prices tend to rise but they boom really fast.. of course, this is based my observation. Trade Safe!

[nelson4lov]

Invest carefully, usually people cashout during this period as well.. prices tend to rise but they boom really fast.. of course, this is based my observation. Trade Safe!

People won't often withdraw at this time of the year. It's more of a tradition to save up money from the beginning of the year and then towards the end of the year, they withdraw it. Same goes for Bitcoin users too. But if there one thing I'm quite sure of, it's the fact that the price would take a positive turn (probably a big move) in the days, weeks or even month leading up to the block halving event in may. Bitcoin could find a new base price as miners  would need higher prices for btc in order to meet up their costs. Also the inflation rate will be slashed by half (~50%).

Reasons why I'm bullish:

• Less amount of bitcoin being added to the current supply
• Higher demand + mimers would require higher prices to break even or even profit.
  
• The halving event is a milestone event and at such, the price would reflect such event

Some say this might be Bitcoin's biggest move so I'll stick around to find out.

[Malamok101]

As we see in the past of years bitcoin is still grow up, And its a big oppurtunity the importance of bitcoin to all since 2016 pump and dump till 2019. But its a big step you to predict what will happen in the next next year.

[sarmrakib]

Its look like the chart is almost same as it was at year 16 .However there is no certainty that market will go through as it was in 16. The crypto market is an uncertain platform .We can just predict here with our own experience and research .I hope the market will get a pump and if we could find any strong uptrend it could hit 12k$ .Now we need to eye on the market what happen on there.

[gabbie2010]

If history would repeat itself with respective to the price of bitcoin then we are in for another bullish run based on the technical analysis of the OP my concern is that as we are approaching the end of the year hodlers might withdraw or exchange some of their bitcoin to fiat so as to buy stuffs for Christmas invariably might lead to fall in the price of bitcoin implying that the price might likely defies the TA.

[goaldigger]

Its look like the chart is almost same as it was at year 16 .However there is no certainty that market will go through as it was in 16. The crypto market is an uncertain platform .We can just predict here with our own experience and research .I hope the market will get a pump and if we could find any strong uptrend it could hit 12k$ .Now we need to eye on the market what happen on there.

Technically the same trend but it can change anytime and the trend can still change because bitcoin are more active this year compare to 2016 and we know that the price moves depends on the behavior of the seller and buyer. If we go the same path this year, then we will see the big price if not then we must prepare for that and believe that bitcoin will survive this long bear trend.

[Hamphser]

If history would repeat itself with respective to the price of bitcoin then we are in for another bullish run based on the technical analysis of the OP my concern is that as we are approaching the end of the year hodlers might withdraw or exchange some of their bitcoin to fiat so as to buy stuffs for Christmas invariably might lead to fall in the price of bitcoin implying that the price might likely defies the TA.

I think history would like to repeat itself and it could be somehow resemble the previous halving before bull run. I don't want to think this is just a coincidence but everything looks like the same. It would probably going to repeat the history itself. 2020 may not be the bullish year but 2021 is the year for real bull run.

[Reid]

Shouldn't it be compared with the 2015 - 2016 chart vs the 2019-2020 chart which is not there yet?
Same halving timeline right? Just my opinion though.

But you still did great digging that kind of chart and putting all those lines.
Hoping the same thing could happen so that all this FUD that I have been reading will just be erased tomorrow or in a week.
They are somehow suffocating with negativity.

[inthelongrun]

it is reminiscing to remember because bitcoin closed very profitable in 2016 and 2017. 2018 was a bad year but bitcoin closed better and showed signs of life and what's next to come in 2019. Corrections already happened after that months of bullish trend this year so I guess bitcoin closes this year again better than this month. I am not expecting too much growth as we only have 40 days to end this year. $13,000 and i'm good with it.

[aardvark15]

It’s an interesting comparison but I still don’t think we will see a big increase this year. I think it’s going to happen after the mining block reward gets cut in half. Or at least it will begin a little ahead of that which is in May 2020.

[pundit]

The same pattern for 2016 with 2019
First form an ascending triangle then fall and sideways rise up to a few percent and now form a falling wedge pattern
I think support of $ 8300- $ 8400 is very strong, we will probably touch $ 12000 soon .. !!
What do you think..?

I actually did not notice it. I think this is a great analysis to predict some future movement of Bitcoin. Although it is not certain where would it move to still we need find the most probable moves. History repeats so does chart patterns. We soon may find a bull move in BTC price. Do not expect this bull move to come in few days or month, it may take 1 year, 2 years or more but it will come.