Never below 10K again... well that didn't stick - Food for thought

[Steamtyme]

There are no price predictions here it's just something I've been thinking on a lot in the last month or so. During the last price run-up, countless predictors and TA personalities were saying this over and over. Once we close over 10K you'll never see a 4 digit BTC again. Well here we are 2 months later and we are below 8k.

This just shows that a chart tells you what you really want to see. They all obviously saw the other side of the trend and would mention the chance,  but went with what they were biased towards. Some of these folks are perma-bulls, some constantly bearish. Overall they see an upward trend in the long term but rarely see eye to eye on the short term. There is a reason people get wrecked trading or pull massive gains, there is no way to know for sure what is going to happen.

The only thing through all of this that makes sense, is the dollar cost averaging strategy. When you go to buy into a speculative market, best not to jump all in at once. Especially if you aren't sure you can hold out for the long term. I can't find it at the moment but about a while ago I saw a chart showing that you would be profitable even if you started buying in at the ATH, if you had continued to DCA, throughout 2018 into 2019.

Here is a different article I just found though that covers the same idea. https://www.bitcoinforbeginners.io/cryptocurrency-guide/dollar-cost-averaging-investment-strategy-bitcoin/

[Lucius]

Personally, I think it's really stupid to ever use the word "never" when it comes to Bitcoin, this is just one example that shows this. When in April (2019) price jump from $4k to $5k in very short time, and when we witnessed the $10k pump, some "experts" were convinced that this was the beginning of a new large pump that would very easily result with new ATH ($20K+). Of course, something like that couldn't have happened, nor would it happen before halving next year.

I'm pretty sure (though I'll never say never), that price will never go below $1000, but I think that even after next ATH (which can be x10), it is still possible to return bellow $10k after correction.

Regarding investing, it makes some sense that even if you buy at $20k (you are theoretically at a loss), by buying after that at low ($3000) you can nullify some losses (in fiat value) if you sell at right time. Bitcoin has always been a smart investment for the long term, it's just a matter of how much money and patience one has to come out as a winner.

[dodgrad]

If there is no disaster, then people who bought at ATH will definitely earn on their investment. Someday..
I do not know, who using TA said that the price will increase? Everyone I know and use TA has said to me and is constantly saying that the BTC price will go down. Some say that to $5k- $6k and others even that to $3k- $4k. I personally see positive moods on the market, so I honestly doubt that the price will drop to $7k.

[tokeweed]

It's just people (mostly noobs) being irrational.  And that's alright...  But the thing I hate about it tho is the hypocrisy of maxis and how they treat people who hold or trade alts.  Everybody's the same...  We're all pumping our bags and going for number go up. 

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Heh heh.  I think at one point I thought and probably even wrote that bitcoin wasn't going to dip below $10k, at least not in the near future--and that was only a few months ago when it was above that price.  Oh well.  I did buy some bitcoin in the past couple of days, though not much and looking at the price this morning, it's already dropped below what I bought it at.

I'm not concerned, however.  As I write this, bitcoin is at $7603 and while that was about a $400 drop since I went to bed last night, it still could have been much worse.  I don't know if this is that "typical" end of year selling that I keep reading about, but it's possible.  The same thing often happens in the stock market, even though it isn't even December yet.  If bitcoin doesn't recover this year, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that 2020 will be a much better year than this one.

Man....think about it.  Bitcoin is still picking up the pieces from 2017's irrational exuberance.  That's why I don't want to see a crazy bull market like that one ever again.

[panganib999]

We can't really blame them though. Having the hope of reaching another ATH pushes the people to spread the word to others, infecting them with their optimism. Probably thinking that this could actually help in pushing BTC above the market. I was honestly one of those who HOPED for it to actually stay at the very least in 8k. Just went and checked it earlier and it already dropped to 7.8k. Was kind of lucky to sell my coins when it was still around 8.5k though.

Personally, I think it's really stupid to ever use the word "never" when it comes to Bitcoin, this is just one example that shows this.

Most of the still attractive market should never use the word never, and since BTC is still in its progressive phase, such a term should indeed not be used. It would most probably be more fitting when it is used once every BTC has been mined, creating a stabilizing factor for the volatility of BTC in the market.

[mu_enrico]

A wise man says: "Newbs should not trust random dude from Youtube and Twitter." These people are paid shill and have little or no real trading knowledge.

It is clear enough that no one can predict the future. Just unfollow/unsubscribe their accounts, and you will become a happier person. Buy some (if you have idle money), then forget it for a while until you hear good news from mainstream media.

[jakelyson]

Dollar cost averaging is a good investment strategy if you have the discipline to regularly dedicate a part of your money into bitcoin. You will always have the average price. But most noobs will be too scared to buy when the price is tanking and FOMO when it is soaring.

 

[adzino]

A wise man says: "Newbs should not trust random dude from Youtube and Twitter." These people are paid shill and have little or no real trading knowledge.

It is clear enough that no one can predict the future. Just unfollow/unsubscribe their accounts, and you will become a happier person. Buy some (if you have idle money), then forget it for a while until you hear good news from mainstream media.

True, your "newbs" shouldn't randomly trust a dude from youtube or twitter, but this does not mean that you will end up unsubscribing from him or anything like that. They do give suggestions, but it is your responsibility to find out and analyse what he or she is saying. All I am trying to say is, instead of blindly trusting and following someone, do your part of work which is learning more about that thing through different sources.

[Febo]

There are no price predictions here it's just something I've been thinking on a lot in the last month or so. During the last price run-up, countless predictors and TA personalities were saying this over and over. Once we close over 10K you'll never see a 4 digit BTC again. Well here we are 2 months later and we are below 8k.

$10k is a lot of money for one Bitcoin. We are less then a year from bottom. In last cycle 11 months after bottom so in December 2015 price was at armoured $400, so  1/3 of previous ATH.   That would give us sub $7000 price right now. We are exactly where we should be. $10000 is reserved for next year.

[Slow death]

When the price went up from $7400 to over $9200 in a few days, I said to my friend, "Don't worry, that was pump because of what the president of China said" he said I was wrong and that the reason for the increase from $ 7400 to over $ 9200 was related to futures. Today the price is back at $7500 and interestingly after this news:

Markets Crash After Reports That Binance's Shanghai Office Closed in Crypto Crackdown

the price dropped from $7850 to $7500 in just a few minutes. it can be clear evidence that the price just increased a lot from $7400 to over $9200 in a few days because of what the president of china said. People are seeing that China has not changed its position and because of this they are dumping their coins

[clickerz]

If there is no disaster, then people who bought at ATH will definitely earn on their investment. Someday..
I do not know, who using TA said that the price will increase? Everyone I know and use TA has said to me and is constantly saying that the BTC price will go down. Some say that to $5k- $6k and others even that to $3k- $4k. I personally see positive moods on the market, so I honestly doubt that the price will drop to $7k.

It is very possible that it can go as low below $7,000.  This may be if more people are cashing for the holiday season. Of course, more people will be needing fiat or cash. But I think it is normal, price may go up and down depending on supply and demand and some events affecting the crypto world.

[bitbunnny]

Never say never and when it comes to Bitcoin nothing is impossibe. We can never say what is the lowest or the highest level that Bitcoin price can go to.
Now it's around 7500$ but doesn't mean it can't go lower. 10000$ isn't some kind of magic boundary that can't be crossed and both ways.

[legendster]

I saw that phrase being passed around in the Wall observer thread a few days ago. I think thats where it caught on from. However, the thing that was accelerating Bitcoin's price, the Libra news, it has its own set of hindrances and stuff to deal with. Once that resolves, chances are high still, things will pick up the pace again.

Until then you will see some fluctuations like these, wilder perhaps, but I do not reckon it would drop below the $3k levels which were solidified back in late 2016.

[wheelz1200]

There are no price predictions here it's just something I've been thinking on a lot in the last month or so. During the last price run-up, countless predictors and TA personalities were saying this over and over. Once we close over 10K you'll never see a 4 digit BTC again. Well here we are 2 months later and we are below 8k.

This just shows that a chart tells you what you really want to see. They all obviously saw the other side of the trend and would mention the chance,  but went with what they were biased towards. Some of these folks are perma-bulls, some constantly bearish. Overall they see an upward trend in the long term but rarely see eye to eye on the short term. There is a reason people get wrecked trading or pull massive gains, there is no way to know for sure what is going to happen.

The only thing through all of this that makes sense, is the dollar cost averaging strategy. When you go to buy into a speculative market, best not to jump all in at once. Especially if you aren't sure you can hold out for the long term. I can't find it at the moment but about a while ago I saw a chart showing that you would be profitable even if you started buying in at the ATH, if you had continued to DCA, throughout 2018 into 2019.

Here is a different article I just found though that covers the same idea. https://www.bitcoinforbeginners.io/cryptocurrency-guide/dollar-cost-averaging-investment-strategy-bitcoin/

Exactly.  I say it all the time, give me 10 predictions of peoe with TA say we are going up, and I can find 10 saying we will go down.  In a game where thousands of peoe "guess" future prices, mathematically some people have to be right.  There is no bearing on this guess just that they were on the right side of this one.  Buy incrementally with what you have to lose and you should be sitting fine when all the dust settles.

[1Referee]

I prefer to focus on where the higher time frame moving averages are, and these hover somewhere between $4000-$6000 which is far away from the $10,000 level.

I personally never use the word never within crypto, but I would be comfortable saying that we, with a high degree of certainty, won't see sub $10,000 levels again when most moving averages hover somewhere above that level. The 200MA on the weekly that helped Bitcoin bottom out at $31xx is currently still below $5000 (~$4880 to be more precise).

In the end, people should be happy that the price isn't going to the moon in one go. The longer the price hovers somewhere below the $10,000 level the more time you have to add to your position every single month.

[STT]

Never say never was not just a James Bond movie but a good term of phrase to remember always everything is possible.   I'am more bearish when people start to get a little too hyper, its far better when BTC gets a rise despite worries and possible negatives.   I think that is because the waves of negatives and shaky weak hands holding BTC do sell their holdings but are selling into a tide of buying hence both market edges are met within the positive trend.
    A hyper market is not selling off properly and getting rid of the negatives in the price properly, it stores up future sellers and accumulates into a bigger negative later.    That might be where we are at now, with selling occuring and to some extent required to rid ourselves of weaker holders who meant only to speculate or even worse borrowed or fractional type holdings.   Though the price is falling now, its not a damaging movement long term in my view and I dont discount it finding 10k in future again.
   BTC price has alot more depth to it then people give credit for, thats my take that its moving and dragging back some previous gains but it can turn and be positive again once its expended negative momentum.

[Pearls Before Swine]

I personally never use the word never within crypto, but I would be comfortable saying that we, with a high degree of certainty, won't see sub $10,000 levels again when most moving averages hover somewhere above that level.

I'm not sure I would agree with your technical analysis, but that's my bias against it speaking.  I wouldn't say I was absolutely sure bitcoin wouldn't drop below $10,000 again when it was above that level some months ago back in July and August of 2018, but I was confident that we might not see $7500 again.  Obviously I was wrong, but what does it matter?  I still believe in bitcoin and now I can buy it at a much lower price. 

Exactly.  I say it all the time, give me 10 predictions of peoe with TA say we are going up, and I can find 10 saying we will go down.

I'm not alone, then.  This is why I prefer not to stare at charts when trying to decide whether to make an investment, especially in crypto.  Past prices aren't a great indicator of what something is going to do in the future *unless* there's clearly some momentum behind whatever it is we're talking about.  When bitcoin was above $10,000, that was not the case.  Anyhow, I'm hodling and I'm sure bitcoin isn't going to stay this low for long.  Actually I'm not sure at all, but I doubt it's going to and I've put my money where my mouth is.

[shield132]

Personally, I think it's really stupid to ever use the word "never" when it comes to Bitcoin, this is just one example that shows this. When in April (2019) price jump from $4k to $5k in very short time, and when we witnessed the $10k pump, some "experts" were convinced that this was the beginning of a new large pump that would very easily result with new ATH ($20K+). Of course, something like that couldn't have happened, nor would it happen before halving next year.

I'm pretty sure (though I'll never say never), that price will never go below $1000, but I think that even after next ATH (which can be x10), it is still possible to return bellow $10k after correction.

Regarding investing, it makes some sense that even if you buy at $20k (you are theoretically at a loss), by buying after that at low ($3000) you can nullify some losses (in fiat value) if you sell at right time. Bitcoin has always been a smart investment for the long term, it's just a matter of how much money and patience one has to come out as a winner.

Some "experts" also were saying in past that bitcoin will reach 10K, 20K in 1-2 year and they were saying this when price was 400-600$. People were laughing at them, they couldn't imagine if it was possible to reach unreachable 1K, nothing to talk about further rises but seems those "experts" were right.
If bitcoin's price will go below 1000$, it means it will also go down to 100$ and this coin will die which I don't want to happen. To be fair current price of bitcoin still high too, why do we need 20K? Bitcoin at 7k usd easily matches what users need, 20K was what caused huge rise in transactions and also stuck of them in time.

[Steamtyme]

I agree with the sentiments of people regarding the words "never" it's crazy to think like that in a market where individuals hold thousands of coins. They honestly can do as they please with the market and people are just subject to dealing with it.
I really only wrote this as for a while I was really getting into trying to learn more about TA, but have sort of lost the desire. It was more for thesake of learning than anything, as I'm not overly concerned with the price day to day, hell even month to month. I gripe a bit here or there if I sell/buy something right before a run-up, but funnily enough don't care as much when I'm on the right side of things.
I'm definitely more in favor of slow reasonable growth that make sense, it really only benefits a small segment of users when things start to swing 15-40% in short frames. I guess that could be that I don't really hold much, nor do I have much in the way of Fiat to inject into building my reserves up. I've sort of moved to a small amount of people who actually try to talk about news and businesses and the perceived impact whether negative or positive for the overall environment.
I will admit I did sort of get sucked into the idea that this was going to be something similar to 2017 on a smaller scale. I wasn't excited about it though, I would have sold some and waited to buy back in. If it never dropped I would have just carried on holding the mining rewards. I still find myself talking to people about why I am involved with BTC, and they always bring up the perceived loss of value from the ATH, without an understanding of the FOMO that drove it. They tend to just think I'm on the kool-aid or something.