No, Bitcoin’s Circulating Supply is Not 18 Million

[cheezcarls]

A recent analysis from CoinMetrics hints that over 1,500,000 Bitcoins could permanently be out of the total circulation. While BTC’s active supply should currently be over 18 million, the quantity fell short.

Notably, on October 19 this year, 18 million BTC officially entered circulation, which happened at block 600,000. At this time, the community began cheering up as it highlighted “the end of the inflation process for Bitcoin.” However, things aren’t as they appear. The supply reportedly fell short which brought on a sense of fear, where are these lost coins going?

Source link for the news here

I honestly don't know what you guys are thinking about this one. Do you actually agree that Bitcoin's circulating supply is not 18 million? Do you guys believe that these 1,500,000 BTCs are actually lost?

I know that some of you may have different reactions to this one. I would love hearing out your thoughts and opinions about this one guys. Thanks in advance.

[franky1]

bitcoins circulating supply is not 18m.
things like 'satoshi's stash' and other coins not moved for years indicate they are lost.

however even say a 16m-21m number is of immaterial importance when it comes to the market price

markets do not have 16m of coins hoarded in them to cause price movements. the estimates are below 2mill coins are hoarded on exchanges affecting the market price.

[bitsurfer2014]

There has been some kind of news like this before and until now it is still a subject for debate on what is the correct circulation supply of BTC! We could only account for "lost coins" if we are very certain that its not possible to retrieved them and be integrated into the total circulating  supply but until then, I believe these findings are mostly based on assumptions and I guess they have no concrete methodology to arrived at such figures!

[darkangel11]

There has been some kind of news like this before

Yes there was and it struck a similar debate every time.

In 2017 they were saying that 2.5 million is lost + 1 mill of Satoshi's coins that are out of circulation.
Now it's only 1.5 mill lost? The number is decreasing. In 2022 expect them to come up with another random number. Maybe 4 million this time?
Source: https://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/

[tsaroz]

There has been some kind of news like this before

Yes there was and it struck a similar debate every time.

In 2017 they were saying that 2.5 million is lost + 1 mill of Satoshi's coins that are out of circulation.
Now it's only 1.5 mill lost? The number is decreasing. In 2022 expect them to come up with another random number. Maybe 4 million this time?
Source: https://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/

The coins are ever decreasing. The statistics are not 100% correct as they might be considering the unmoved coins as out of circulation that could also be a wallet of whale hodling.
The statistics may depend on how far in history they are looking and how much wallets they are referring to. There could even be thousands of hundred of satoshi left in abandoned wallets.

[JeromeTash]

This whole circulating supply thing is just misconception... Because, at the end of the day the so called number of coins that are in circulation is even much lower than people assume. So to me Number of Mined coins is not the circulating Supply

Also, You can't really know how many coins have been lost. Coins staying in the wallet for the last 6-9 years does not mean someone lost the private keys. Someone could just be having so much faith in bitcoin that they don't want to move the coins at all.
The circulating supply thing is just bullshit IMO, and we shouldn't care much about it.

[Youghoor]

A recent analysis from CoinMetrics hints that over 1,500,000 Bitcoins could permanently be out of the total circulation. While BTC’s active supply should currently be over 18 million, the quantity fell short.

Notably, on October 19 this year, 18 million BTC officially entered circulation, which happened at block 600,000. At this time, the community began cheering up as it highlighted “the end of the inflation process for Bitcoin.” However, things aren’t as they appear. The supply reportedly fell short which brought on a sense of fear, where are these lost coins going?

Source link for the news here

I honestly don't know what you guys are thinking about this one. Do you actually agree that Bitcoin's circulating supply is not 18 million? Do you guys believe that these 1,500,000 BTCs are actually lost?

I know that some of you may have different reactions to this one. I would love hearing out your thoughts and opinions about this one guys. Thanks in advance.

I get that you might not agree that the total circulating Bitcoin is 18 million + as shown by coinmarketcap, but you understand and know that the Bitcoin blockchain network is decentralized network and all transactions made seen the launch of Bitcoin can be seen on the network. Due to the nature of this network, the total number of transactions made can be easily accommulated and the total number of circulating Bitcoin be seen.

[bitsurfer2014]

bitcoins circulating supply is not 18m.
things like 'satoshi's stash' and other coins not moved for years indicate they are lost.

however even say a 16m-21m number is of immaterial importance when it comes to the market price

Correct! The actual number of BTC in circulation are irrelevant with regards to its price maybe because people's mind are conditioned that there will only be 21 million coins that will be in existence regardless of their status.

Yes there was and it struck a similar debate every time.

In 2017 they were saying that 2.5 million is lost + 1 mill of Satoshi's coins that are out of circulation.
Now it's only 1.5 mill lost? The number is decreasing. In 2022 expect them to come up with another random number. Maybe 4 million this time?
Source: https://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/

The coins are ever decreasing. The statistics are not 100% correct as they might be considering the unmoved coins as out of circulation that could also be a wallet of whale hodling.
The statistics may depend on how far in history they are looking and how much wallets they are referring to. There could even be thousands of hundred of satoshi left in abandoned wallets.

The fact that there are contradicting figures about this issue only suggest that they are only based on assumption and there is no concrete evidence or factual data that could support their claims!

Without proper audit and accounting of all BTC involved, I think there is no way we can figure out the correct amount of BTC's in circulation or their actual status. Imho.

[gmaxwell]

Price goes up, more coins circulate. Surprise Surprise.

There are certainly many coins lost.  How many? no one knows, and no one's guesses are likely to be worth much.

Many coins haven't moved recently but will still move again in the future.

Some coins that are stationary on the blockchain are, in fact, rapidly circulating... as physical bitcoins,  amounts in exchange accounts,  or in payment channels.

Someday we might even have coins that are moving on the blockchain, but which are effectively lost and essentially out of circulation!

[Upgate]

Lost coins?  I don't think that is the very correct word to use a coin can not lost even if it's stolen it goes to a bitcoin address or may be the user of the coin is either holding or is dead and the account is dormant

[blckhawk]

Lost coins?  I don't think that is the very correct word to use a coin can not lost even if it's stolen it goes to a bitcoin address or may be the user of the coin is either holding or is dead and the account is dormant

It is considered lost already because no matter what you do, you won't figure out its private key, that would be the only way to use it or get it out of that address. Therefore, it's already considered 'lost' since like a lost item, it's almost irretrievable and cannot be used to enter the circulation again, pretty much like a void they are stuck in.

Reply to OP - I quite agree on the numbers and the possibility of such amounts 'lost' in Bitcoin is possible. One downside of the security the blockchain provides, it comes with a hefty responsibility of keeping your private keys.

[Fappanu]

I agree with you that not all 18,000,000 BTCs are in circulation now that some are in the wallet and some bitcoin is in wallets that have forgotten the private keys and gone. We cannot count on how many are missing and what is in total circulation and I can say that we do not need to talk about this as there is no point in this debate.

Lost coins?  I don't think that is the very correct word to use a coin can not lost even if it's stolen it goes to a bitcoin address or may be the user of the coin is either holding or is dead and the account is dormant

But what should be called for in these circumstances? It is like a coin that falls into a deep ditch. So the coin is still there and you just can't get it out.

[bitmover]

Someday we might even have coins that are moving on the blockchain, but which are effectively lost and essentially out of circulation!

Ok this is very crazy. I read your topics about coinwitness and coinconvenants twice and I didn't get it lol. I will give a better reading today  as it really looks interesting.
They were particularly interesting to me because they were old articles, from2013.

Can you eli5 me about this?
If I understand correctly, after doing a soft fork nodes wouldn't check anymore if the rules were followed in your transaction, but if you did checked.
How could this lead to spending supposedly lost coins, without Private keys?
The real owner would have lost his funds , if he had the private keys and decided to spend them?

[teosanru]

A recent analysis from CoinMetrics hints that over 1,500,000 Bitcoins could permanently be out of the total circulation. While BTC’s active supply should currently be over 18 million, the quantity fell short.

Notably, on October 19 this year, 18 million BTC officially entered circulation, which happened at block 600,000. At this time, the community began cheering up as it highlighted “the end of the inflation process for Bitcoin.” However, things aren’t as they appear. The supply reportedly fell short which brought on a sense of fear, where are these lost coins going?

Source link for the news here

I honestly don't know what you guys are thinking about this one. Do you actually agree that Bitcoin's circulating supply is not 18 million? Do you guys believe that these 1,500,000 BTCs are actually lost?

I know that some of you may have different reactions to this one. I would love hearing out your thoughts and opinions about this one guys. Thanks in advance.

Of course it's true. Moreover let's reduce your calculation even further by telling you that many coins are locked into the cold storages of many big guns like Satoshi for example. These coins are untouched and no movement has occured in them in years. I would call even these coins to be out of supply as they are not at all circulating. So truth is circulating supply will be way below 16.5 million currently. I think there isn't any point of debate because these are proven facts as all the information is available on blockchain.info.

[kryptqnick]

I am not sure whether it's 1.5 million coins or a different number, but surely there are coins lost forever. Apart from that, there are coins which are simply not in circulation, because someone is hodling them faithfully or forgot about them but might actually remember one day. Then there are coins like Satoshi's coins, and we basically don't know to which category they belong. Are they lost forever (=nobody has access to them) or are they just not used by their owners but might enter the circulating supply someday? Anyway, it's true that we'll reach almost the maximum amount of BTC rather soon (a very small amount will be left for a long period of time), so I don't think it's matters much what's the actual circulating supply. Especially if we consider those "inactive" coins lost forever, it just makes the total amount smaller.

[gmaxwell]

We're going a bit offtopic here, but I'll answer..

Ok this is very crazy. I read your topics about coinwitness and coinconvenants twice and I didn't get it lol. I will give a better reading today  as it really looks interesting.
They were particularly interesting to me because they were old articles, from2013.

Can you eli5 me about this?
If I understand correctly, after doing a soft fork nodes wouldn't check anymore if the rules were followed in your transaction, but if you did checked.
How could this lead to spending supposedly lost coins, without Private keys?
The real owner would have lost his funds , if he had the private keys and decided to spend them?

The thread is full of technical details-- so perhaps not the best summary to link from here.

You know how real property can have deed restrictions?  -- contract terms that run with the land and impose restrictions on future owners?

In theory the same could be done with Bitcoin. Where instead of just having keys and timelocks a coin could constrain have restrictions that it required you to preserve when the coin was moved.  But don't worry, you couldn't accidentally accept one of these encumbered bitcoins, your wallet wouldn't recognize them unless specifically programmed to.

Currently the state of script is hobbled enough that no one knows how to do it at the moment, but it's pretty likely that it will become possible again eventually.  There are really powerful and good uses for such tools, but there are also profoundly stupid ones.

So, for example (in theory) I could take a bitcoin and encumber it so that that particular coin could only ever be sent between me and you,  no other key could ever control it.  You and I could send it back and forth forever, if we wanted... but it would effectively be out of circulation. ... even though it was circulating.  It would effectively no longer be a Bitcoin any more, but some kind of "me and you" token.

In theory, with sufficiently advanced technology,  no one except the people involved with a coin could tell that it was encumbered either.

So it's possible that some day there may be circulating bitcoins that aren't really bitcoins anymore and only their owners know it.

[patroncito]

A recent analysis from CoinMetrics hints that over 1,500,000 Bitcoins could permanently be out of the total circulation. While BTC’s active supply should currently be over 18 million, the quantity fell short.

Notably, on October 19 this year, 18 million BTC officially entered circulation, which happened at block 600,000. At this time, the community began cheering up as it highlighted “the end of the inflation process for Bitcoin.” However, things aren’t as they appear. The supply reportedly fell short which brought on a sense of fear, where are these lost coins going?

Source link for the news here

I honestly don't know what you guys are thinking about this one. Do you actually agree that Bitcoin's circulating supply is not 18 million? Do you guys believe that these 1,500,000 BTCs are actually lost?

I know that some of you may have different reactions to this one. I would love hearing out your thoughts and opinions about this one guys. Thanks in advance.

it its waaayy less than that, there are a lot of folks accumulating and not selling never.

[Gyfts]

The ideal number of Bitcoin circulation is the same number output of total Bitcoins in the pool. When the media refers to the total pool, it's under the assumption that ALL those Bitcoins are accessible. Highlighting the word "ideal" here, it references all the Bitcoins generated without considering those lost without the possibility of recovery. This is something even the hardcore Bitcoin enthusiasts won't seem to acknowledge. If mainstream adoption is the key, having a maximum of 21 million units seems problematic. You could argue that the price would exponentially increase to match the demand to the point 21 million will be enough when considering the price per coin, but that still doesn't necessarily solve the problem.

[bitsurfer2014]

The thread is full of technical details-- so perhaps not the best summary to link from here.

You know how real property can have deed restrictions?  -- contract terms that run with the land and impose restrictions on future owners?

In theory the same could be done with Bitcoin. Where instead of just having keys and timelocks a coin could constrain have restrictions that it required you to preserve when the coin was moved.  But don't worry, you couldn't accidentally accept one of these encumbered bitcoins, your wallet wouldn't recognize them unless specifically programmed to.

Currently the state of script is hobbled enough that no one knows how to do it at the moment, but it's pretty likely that it will become possible again eventually.  There are really powerful and good uses for such tools, but there are also profoundly stupid ones.

So, for example (in theory) I could take a bitcoin and encumber it so that that particular coin could only ever be sent between me and you,  no other key could ever control it.  You and I could send it back and forth forever, if we wanted... but it would effectively be out of circulation. ... even though it was circulating.  It would effectively no longer be a Bitcoin any more, but some kind of "me and you" token.

In theory, with sufficiently advanced technology,  no one except the people involved with a coin could tell that it was encumbered either.

So it's possible that some day there may be circulating bitcoins that aren't really bitcoins anymore and only their owners know it.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think you are suggesting the idea that Bitcoin will someday, have the capability to have "smart contract" like features and procedures that will follow certain conditions based on a specific algorithms which could also be tailored to a unique use case?

[gmaxwell]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think you are suggesting the idea that Bitcoin will someday, have the capability to have "smart contract" like features and procedures that will follow certain conditions based on a specific algorithms which could also be tailored to a unique use case?

It already does and has since day one. They got hobbed a bit by Satoshi due to security vulnerabilities in them but I'm confident that they'll be restored to full power eventually as people learn more about what form that would best take.  Lightning is powered by Bitcoin's smart contracting abilities.