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November 23, 2019, 09:00:27 PM |
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First off, the real issue at hand is that there hasn't ever been this level of wallstreet involvement in the price. Even though it's controversial and people deny it, there is an extreme case to be made that wallstreet is using derivatives through naked short selling and dilution of the real 21 million supply to hold price down, and AND they are deliberately consolidating mining, bank rupting mining. AND Bitmain is generally a bad actor, doing shady things with the upcoming new ASIC models, using planned obsolescence to bankrupt miners.
The technicals are pretty broad with a case to be made that we could see 2k or we could just take off right from here to 30k. The idea is that we are finishing a macro multi year corrective zigzag or flat, and that 20,000$ was the multi year 5th wave, and we are going to start a new multi year impulse somewhere in between 2k and 14k that could go to 100k+ so while people get ultra butt hurt about 2 to 14k, the idea is we are *finishing* a multi year bear market and starting a banana nut crazy bull market.
Andreas Antonopolis says that he thinks the uliminted risk to the upside associated with wallstreet naked short selling the supply will put a limit on how abusive they can b e with rehypothecation. But we have some very very bad actors in the space.
Basically how long can they suppress price? How bad is China manipulation going to get?
I *think* raw demand and technical break throughs combined with the halvening should start the new bull market in spring 2020. Lightning network and regulatory clarity, investor onboarding in Asia. That's the idea I suppose, as bad as wallstreet is, that is the idea behind fidelity and ameritrade, is to get people to buy and hold physical btc. So a lot of the wait is on sharding, lightning, retail adoption, and legal clarity for custodianship.
But the elephant in the room is that we have some really bad actors in the space. The CFTC couldn't controll the price manipulation that occursif it wanted to. Bitcoin just isn't that controllable. Not like a normal asset.
Rouge Hedge funds, quant firms (including Alameda) and Bitmain, The chinese government, the us government, and the CME and BAKKT themselves are absolutely criminally influencing price. And I fear the rehypothecation is going to really really hurt btc.
We as a community really have to start talking about the negative effect these quant firms and the CME are having, and devising better plans to keep PHYSICAL demand for btc up
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