Or probably much greater. At this point, this bad method you said is pretty much an assumption and simply a guess. I am quite sure that there are also lots of people who are still losing their private key as of this moment.
Well if the basis is the assumption that something is lost the time period in which the BTC has not been moved from the address, then it can actually be just less, no more than 4 million lost coins. They say that 4 million coins are not moved in x years, this is how we get that number. You should also consider that before BTC was cheaper (more accessible to small people), and mining was possible with PC, so most of the possibly lost coins date back to probably the first 5 years of existence.
Today, very few people can afford to buy 1
BTC, and mining is almost fully reserved for big players+people are fully aware of the importance which
BTC have+we also have hardware wallets which all together results in a very small amount of loss.