Hash Ribbons Indicator confirms 10th buy signal in 9 years @ $7245

[stompix]

To be fair, for now, the miner capitulation appears to of been averted, instead it seems there was only minor capitulation

What the hell is a "minor" capitulation?
You were saying capitulation we have 6 exahash in hash rate growth.

Even if we assume the best gear in efficiency that's 100k s17+ worth 170 mllion$ or 80 million if we go with cheap TH but power-hungry options.
You're arguing about miners capitulation with this amount of hashrate being added?

Seriously why do you try to see things and trends and relations when there this one?

Hash Ribbons confirmed it's 10th buy signal in 9 years yesterday on the Daily chart,

Yup, you nailed it again..../s

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[dragonvslinux]

To be fair, for now, the miner capitulation appears to of been averted, instead it seems there was only minor capitulation

What the hell is a "minor" capitulation?

Minor: lesser in importance, seriousness, or significance. (note pun).

You were saying capitulation we have 6 exahash in hash rate growth.

Even if we assume the best gear in efficiency that's 100k s17+ worth 170 mllion$ or 80 million if we go with cheap TH but power-hungry options.
You're arguing about miners capitulation with this amount of hashrate being added?

To correct you, the indicator claimed there was capitulation (which I agree with), given the historical relevance of this indicator for 9 years. Bare in mind there was also 'minor' "miner capitulation" three times in 2015. Arguably, you could say if it's minor capitulation it's merely a correction, and you'd be right, however I am referencing the indicator here rather than my own personal bias or perspective, that isn't relevant. The importance right now is that the recent correction/capitulation was very limited and short-lived, and therefore has reflected the 2015 corrections that occurred during accumulation.

Seriously why do you try to see things and trends and relations when there this one?

Hash Ribbons confirmed it's 10th buy signal in 9 years yesterday on the Daily chart,

Yup, you nailed it again..../s

Don't credit me, credit the indicator. I am just publishing what the mathematics have calculated 

[El duderino_]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5214437.0
sorry for OFF TOPIC, but unleash your TA's there as well ^

[dragonvslinux]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5214437.0
sorry for OFF TOPIC, but unleash your TA's there as well ^

You are more than welcome with the off topic. No local rules here, just speculation
Also if it weren't for your post, I would of likely missed the $50 box that I wanted 
So thanks for notifying me as it were 

[stompix]

You said pun....and then you start using again the word capitulation 3 times....

To correct you, the indicator claimed there was capitulation (which I agree with), given the historical relevance of this indicator for 9 years. Bare in mind there was also 'minor' "miner capitulation" three times in 2015. Arguably, you could say if it's minor capitulation it's merely a correction, and you'd be right, however I am referencing the indicator here rather than my own personal bias or perspective, that isn't relevant. The importance right now is that the recent correction/capitulation was very limited and short-lived, and therefore has reflected the 2015 corrections that occurred during accumulation.

Don't credit me, credit the indicator. I am just publishing what the mathematics have calculated  

No, it was not what math calculated, don't bring math into this.
It was what you got from forcing math formulas with no basis.  

If you pick your timesets as you see fit you can come up with really amazing facts, let's have an example...
Bitcoin will NEVER REACH 100K /BTC.

And I can prove it with hashrate, furthermore, I will avoid the first years with the dramatic price increase and the years with no asic mining.
On the 1st of January 2015, we had a price of 750$ and a hashrate of 11PH.
On the 1st January 2020, we're sitting at 7000$ and a hashrate of 90 EH.

That's a growth of 10x in price and 9000x in hash rate.
So, using math  to reach 100k we need an increase of ~15k times in hahrate...
That's math!!!!

Again, using math...
Assuming the new generation 5nm miners with claims of 25% increase in efficiency Bitmain and Cannan claim , screw that just for fun lets go to 1nm miners we will get around 1PH per miner at 3000W. But! we need 1,3 billions of them!
That is going to be 72kwh x 365 x 1 300 000 000, or 34,164,000,000,000‬‬ kwh or 34,164 Twh or 1.5 times what the world is consuming at a cost of 2.6 trillion in equipment but....with a remaining reward of only 300 billion coins (at 100k value)

You see....math!
Just how you chose arbitrarily points for your TA I did the same and I've proved with math, that it won't be possible for BTC to reach 100k.

So, hash and price...nope!!!
Just like brand new car sales don't drive wages up but are an effect of them.
Stop trying to see things where there is nothing to see,  you might end up with a pink Rolls Royce   and that's not a good thing, trust me!

[dragonvslinux]

No, it was not what math calculated, don't bring math into this.
It was what you got from forcing math formulas with no basis. 

Source code mathematics referenced below. I haven't forced anything, I didn't write the code 

If you pick your timesets as you see fit you can come up with really amazing facts, let's have an example...
Bitcoin will NEVER REACH 100K /BTC.

And I can prove it with hashrate, furthermore, I will avoid the first years with the dramatic price increase and the years with no asic mining.
On the 1st of January 2015, we had a price of 750$ and a hashrate of 11PH.
On the 1st January 2020, we're sitting at 7000$ and a hashrate of 90 EH.

That's a growth of 10x in price and 9000x in hash rate.
So, using math  to reach 100k we need an increase of ~15k times in hahrate...
That's math!!!!

Congrats on your mathematics! Price is also -60% since ATH while hash rate is up around 700% (8x)
I guess this also means by standard of simple mathematics that 16x hash rate would mean the price would be -120%?
So that's anything between a price of -$1,500 and +$100K. I think you need to work on your indicator, it's lacking utility 
As you'll see below, the code uses "variables" and more than one equation

You see....math!

Code: (Hash Ribbons indicator)

//@version=4
study("Hash Ribbons",overlay= false)

// NOTES

// The "Spring" is the confirmed Miner capitulation period:
// - The 1st "gray" circle is the start of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses UNDER 2 month Hash Rate)
// - Last "green" circle is the end of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses OVER 2 month Hash Rate)
// - The "greener" the spring gets (up until blue) represents Hash Rate recovery (it is increasing)
// - The "blue" circle is the first instance of positive momentum following recovery of Hash Rate (1m HR > 2m HR). This is historically a rewarding place to buy with limited downside.

// INPUTS

type = input('Ribbons',options=['Ribbons','Oscillator'],title="Plot Type")
len_s = input(30,"Hash Rate Short SMA (days).")
len_l = input(60,"Hash Rate Long SMA (days).")
signals = input(true, "Plot Signals")
plot_halvings = input(true,"Plot Halvings")
raw = input(false, "Plot Raw Hash Rate")

// HASH RATE MA

// HR on TV only has "yesterday's" value --> use "lookahead_on" when running live (on current bar), to pull forward yesterdays data
live_HR_raw = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", close,gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
live_HR_short = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_s),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
live_HR_long = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_l),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on) 

hist_HR_raw = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", close,gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
hist_HR_short = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_s),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) 
hist_HR_long = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_l),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) 

daily_s10 = security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", sma(close,10),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) 
daily_s20 = security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", sma(close,20),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) 


// DAILY TIMEFRAME MGMT

is_newbar(res) =>
    t = time(res) // res calculated below \/
    change(t) != 0 ? true : false

// Check how many bars are in our upper (otf) timeframe
since_new_bar = barssince(is_newbar("D")) //1-360 for minutes, D = Daily, W = Weekly, M = Monthly
D_total_bars = int(na)
D_total_bars := since_new_bar == 0 ? since_new_bar[1] : D_total_bars[1] // calculates the total number of current time frame bars in the OTF 

// INDICATORS

HR_short = float(na)
HR_long = float(na)
HR_raw = float(na)
s10 = float(na) 
s20 = float(na)

HR_short := barstate.isrealtime ? live_HR_short : hist_HR_short 
HR_long := barstate.isrealtime ? live_HR_long : hist_HR_long 
HR_raw := barstate.isrealtime ? live_HR_raw : hist_HR_raw 

s10 := barstate.isrealtime ? (since_new_bar == D_total_bars ? daily_s10 : s10[1]) : daily_s10
s20 := barstate.isrealtime ? (since_new_bar == D_total_bars ? daily_s20 : s20[1]) : daily_s20

capitulation = crossunder(HR_short,HR_long)
miner_capitulation = HR_short<HR_long 
recovering = HR_short > HR_short[1] and HR_short > HR_short[2] and HR_short > HR_short[3] and miner_capitulation
recovered = crossover(HR_short,HR_long)

// HASH BOTTOM + PA SIGNAL

buy = false
buy := s10>s20 
     and (
     (barssince(recovered) < barssince(crossunder(s10,s20)) and barssince(recovered) < barssince(capitulation)) 
     or crossover(HR_short,HR_long)
     )
     
buy_plot = buy and (buy[1] == false)

// OSCILLATOR

delta = HR_short-HR_long
diff = (delta/HR_short)*100

// PLOT - DEFAULT

plot(raw ? HR_raw : na, color = color.green, linewidth = 1, style = plot.style_line, title='HR Raw') 
p1=plot(type=='Ribbons'? HR_long : na, color = color.gray, linewidth = 2, style = plot.style_line,title='HR SMA Long') 
p2=plot(type=='Ribbons'? HR_short : na, color = (HR_short<HR_long? color.red : color.lime), linewidth = 2, style = plot.style_line,title = 'HR SMA Short')
fill(p1,p2,color=(HR_short<HR_long?color.red:na),transp=30)

// PLOT - OSCILLATOR

plot(type=='Oscillator' ? diff : na,style=plot.style_columns,color=(diff<0?color.red:color.blue),title='Oscillator')

// PLOT - SIGNALS

plotshape(signals ? capitulation :na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.gray,size=size.normal,transp=50,text='Capitulation',textcolor=color.black,title='Capitulation')
plotshape(signals ? miner_capitulation : na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.green,size=size.normal,transp=90,title='Miner Capitulation') 
plotshape(signals ? recovering : na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.green,size=size.normal,transp=50,title='Recovering') 
plotshape(signals ? recovered : na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.lime,size=size.normal,transp=0,textcolor=color.white,title='Recovered') 
plotshape(signals ? buy_plot: na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.blue,size=size.normal,transp=0,text="Buy",textcolor=color.blue,title='Buy') 

// HALVINGS

halving_1 = timestamp(2012,11,28,0,0)
halving_2 = timestamp(2016,7,9,0,0)
halving_3 = timestamp(2020,4,30,0,0) // projected! https://www.bitcoinclock.com/
h1_range = time >= halving_1 - 3*(24*60*60*1000) and time <= halving_1 + 3*(24*60*60*1000) //adds 3 day either side for chart visibility
h2_range = time >= halving_2 - 3*(24*60*60*1000) and time <= halving_2 + 3*(24*60*60*1000) //adds 3 day either side for chart visibility
h3_range = time >= halving_3 - 3*(24*60*60*1000) and time <= halving_3 + 3*(24*60*60*1000) //adds 3 day either side for chart visibility
bgcolor(h1_range and plot_halvings? color.red : na, transp = 20)
bgcolor(h2_range and plot_halvings? color.red : na, transp = 20)
bgcolor(h3_range and plot_halvings? color.red : na, transp = 20)

//ALERTS

alertcondition(capitulation, title='Alert - Capitulation')
alertcondition(recovered, title='Alert - Recovered')
alertcondition(buy and not(buy[1]), title='Alert - Buy')

Reference: https://www.tradingview.com/script/kT7jIvqv-Hash-Ribbons/

[exstasie]

Willy Woo is pointing at a bullish pattern on Litecoin's hash ribbon indicator. He thinks LTC might lead BTC:



What do you think? What's his track record like anyway? I've never followed his analysis much. I'm more of a straight up TA guy.

[dragonvslinux]

Willy Woo is pointing at a bullish pattern on Litecoin's hash ribbon indicator. He thinks LTC might lead BTC:



What do you think? What's his track record like anyway? I've never followed his analysis much. I'm more of a straight up TA guy.

That's interesting, I haven't looked at LTC's hash ribbons, didn't even know it existed. Would need to back-test to form an opinion, as the example only shows 1 time previously when it was relevant - so this could obviously be an anomaly as opposed to a pattern like it has been with BTC. My gut feeling is that it's irrelevant, it's nothing like BTC's hash, but I'll let the mathematics speak for themselves instead of my own prejudice, when I get a chance to look at it and get back to you  Thanks for giving me something to look into!

Willy Woo's track record isn't bad in my opinion. If I'm not mistaken, he was wrong about $5-6K holding in 2018, or some similar level, but he was right about the bottom of BTC around $3.2K or something like that - basically at the same time as the hash ribbons indicated, prior to the source code being written. Hence that indicator existing basically.

With this in mind, I don't doubt that Willy is right again about LTC, I wouldn't like to counter-trade this theory personally. I don't know anyone better who can analyze on-chain data as well as he can, put it that way. Not to mention his charts are incredibly useful I find: http://charts.woobull.com/

[dragonvslinux]

Just noticed the Monthly chart is now signalling a buy, although obviously the month would have to close at current prices for this to hold:
This would be the first buy signal since October 2016 at $709, as well as 7th buy signal in 9 years  



Notice how it signaled recovery in 2019 but no buy signal (price follow through, at the time), suggesting the network growth & price is stronger than it was in January 2019.

[fullhdpixel]

Honestly, it was a good call and the price kept on increasing, if you bought bitcoin one week ago and now sold you would have made 10% profit. People love to talk about how they missed out on bitcoin and how they could have profited while ignoring the fact that you could have made 10% in just one week if you purchased bitcoin, that is not something you see very often neither in anything people invest in except maybe some few stocks.

Let's hope that it will continue to grow and this signal wasn't just for this 10% but for something much larger, I want to see bitcoin at over 8 thousand in the next day or two which would mean that it wasn't just a one time increase but a bull run, we are going to rock the boat if we continue like this for couple more days in the following aftermath.

[dragonvslinux]

I want to see bitcoin at over 8 thousand in the next day or two which would mean that it wasn't just a one time increase but a bull run, we are going to rock the boat if we continue like this for couple more days in the following aftermath.

Done  

[dragonvslinux]

Courtesy of the indicators skeptics, top quotes now added to OP. Thanks again for input folks, always appreciated.

$7245, December 27th 2019 (10)

Yup, you nailed it again...

Anyone who uses mining for price predictions turns into an instant prick in my book.

I can hardly find a worse indicator other than the number of horses that have taken a dump on the track at Kempton.

[dragonvslinux]

Not much to say, the buy signal occured, price and hash followed suit: