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Author Topic: Have you ever done to experiment to determine percentage of winning?  (Read 316 times)
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November 28, 2019, 04:06:43 PM
 #1

Is there anyone here who tried to experiment in online gambling sites with a pen and paper?

Here's the idea, to determine the percentage of winning, I always think of doing an experiment where I would bet in an online gambling site then each bet will be written to the paper. A total of 10 bets per day in a 1-week duration and each bet will be written and will be recorded depending if the bet is winning or losing. Then conduct an analysis of the percentage of winnings to determine if there are some tricks we could find with these experiments in different gambling sites.

If there is someone who already does this, could you please share the outcome? At what Bet you usually win? and what platform could that technique be applicable?

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November 28, 2019, 04:38:11 PM
 #2

Is there anyone here who tried to experiment in online gambling sites with a pen and paper?
This days you really do not need pen and paper. You can do it easily with spreadsheet. I have done if long time ago and it's waste of time LOL
You win, you lose and that is gambling.

Quote
If there is someone who already does this, could you please share the outcome? At what Bet you usually win? and what platform could that technique be applicable?
I really do not think someone else's statistic is going to help you. Everyone has their own style of betting and risk taking. When I did it, I had some personal info so even if I want I would not like to share it with anyone else.

Bottom line is that I had a lose at the end but not much.

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November 28, 2019, 04:51:25 PM
 #3

Aren't you suppose to analyze before you place a bet? Check the team, check the odds, place a bet. I also think it would be pointless to write the results and analyze them later on. The circumstances changes from game to game and your strategy will keep on changing too.


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November 28, 2019, 04:52:09 PM
 #4

All seeds are random and provably fair, even if you try to keep track of them in between days. Chances of winning will still depend on the odds you set for your game/session/roll, especially for dice. Even if you successfully plotted the probability of winning for each day, chances are these numbers can't still help you and you will still play against the house just as other people would normally do, with or without the data you gathered. I'm pretty sure some are still doing this strategy but on provably-fair games and online casinos, this will not work.

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November 28, 2019, 04:58:56 PM
 #5

Yes, you can get the percentage of winning through that, but in the end, could be quite inaccurate at times. Lets imagine you testing 10 games everyday and on average you win 5 games per day. Now imagine if you tried to play 20 games, you're supposed to win an average of 5 by the end of the 10th game, but no. You kept losing until the 15th game and only then did you win.
Percentage of winning is easy to get, and most of the time it hovers at around 50% or even less if you're actually unlucky, but thats it. It doesn't really help in determining your chances of winning everyday, its more like you just determine the average times you won everyday.
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November 28, 2019, 06:11:26 PM
Last edit: November 28, 2019, 06:23:58 PM by acroman08
 #6

Is there anyone here who tried to experiment in online gambling sites with a pen and paper?

Here's the idea, to determine the percentage of winning, I always think of doing an experiment where I would bet in an online gambling site then each bet will be written to the paper. A total of 10 bets per day in a 1-week duration and each bet will be written and will be recorded depending if the bet is winning or losing. Then conduct an analysis of the percentage of winnings to determine if there are some tricks we could find with these experiments in different gambling sites.

If there is someone who already does this, could you please share the outcome? At what Bet you usually win? and what platform could that technique be applicable?

it is pointless(at least for me) to determine the percentage of your winning in gambling. I know that some people get some satisfaction knowing that they have more wins than
losses but even if the percentage of your winning is positive doesn't mean that your profit is also positive. and also, I'd rather know the percentage of my profit than knowing
the percentage of winnings.

Aren't you suppose to analyze before you place a bet? Check the team, check the odds, place a bet. I also think it would be pointless to write the results and analyze them later on. The circumstances changes from game to game and your strategy will keep on changing too.


only if the OP is specifically talking about sports betting but he is probably not.

 
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November 28, 2019, 06:32:34 PM
Merited by dunfida (2)
 #7



If there is someone who already does this, could you please share the outcome? At what Bet you usually win? and what platform could that technique be applicable?
For luck based games? Then its total a waste of time and effort on inputting those info on a piece of paper yet you cant really able to see anything with that. You cant formulate something on a thing which is completely random.

For strategic like card games and sportsbet? Possible but this would always vary on your skills and analysis. Writing up some info about it wont make a change though but rather just a reference of yours.

 
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November 28, 2019, 06:35:50 PM
 #8

yes i did that before but i dont write my analysis on a paper but i only use online calculators  . i sum up the total of bets would take to hit that high multiplier   .

 i then allocate an amount based on my calculation if i still didnt hit that multiplier and my bankroll already got busted , i will just stop and ill try again next time  .  these experiments of mine sometimes work but sometimes dont , i guess that also depend on my luck  .

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November 28, 2019, 06:38:45 PM
 #9

Is there anyone here who tried to experiment in online gambling sites with a pen and paper?

Here's the idea, to determine the percentage of winning, I always think of doing an experiment where I would bet in an online gambling site then each bet will be written to the paper. A total of 10 bets per day in a 1-week duration and each bet will be written and will be recorded depending if the bet is winning or losing. Then conduct an analysis of the percentage of winnings to determine if there are some tricks we could find with these experiments in different gambling sites.

If there is someone who already does this, could you please share the outcome? At what Bet you usually win? and what platform could that technique be applicable?

First of all, there is no short cuts or tricks to win in gambling. I am sure you will not find a trend in gambling wins or loses if you try to calculate the wining and losing percentages daily or weekly. Secondly sometimes I play dice games with minimum satoshi and there are too many games that I play that it is almost impossible to calculate each win or loss. Its just an extra burden with no real output.



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November 28, 2019, 06:42:45 PM
 #10

Here's the idea, to determine the percentage of winning, I always think of doing an experiment where I would bet in an online gambling site then each bet will be written to the paper. A total of 10 bets per day in a 1-week duration and each bet will be written and will be recorded depending if the bet is winning or losing. Then conduct an analysis of the percentage of winnings to determine if there are some tricks we could find with these experiments in different gambling sites.

If there is someone who already does this, could you please share the outcome? At what Bet you usually win? and what platform could that technique be applicable?

There are many people who play auto bets in the gambling sites and those auto bets do 100 or mores bets in less than a minute or so. So it is practically impossible to note each bet results. Yes, sometime I do count my sports betting and keep track of the money which I won or lost. Its much more better if you can track the inflow and outflow of money in gambling games rather than the win or lost of bets.

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November 28, 2019, 06:59:15 PM
 #11



If there is someone who already does this, could you please share the outcome? At what Bet you usually win? and what platform could that technique be applicable?
For luck based games? Then its total a waste of time and effort on inputting those info on a piece of paper yet you cant really able to see anything with that. You cant formulate something on a thing which is completely random.

For strategic like card games and sportsbet? Possible but this would always vary on your skills and analysis. Writing up some info about it wont make a change though but rather just a reference of yours.
I agree to these points which its nonsense to tally everything when you are just playing for entertainment.You wouldnt bother
to write up stats on how much you loss and how much you won on a game on a particular site.Creatiing strategies out of it
is somewhat BS because no matter how you do made caculations you cant still change the fact when it comes to winning chance.

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November 28, 2019, 07:00:58 PM
 #12

There is no need to an experiment or an analyze.
Every bet is independent from other bets. For example in dice game the chance of winning depends on the house edge and the odds. That does not depend on previous bets nor the platform you are playing in.

Whatever outcomes of your previous bets are, the chance of winning in a single bet equals (100%-house edge)/odds  
This is your chance of winning and it doesn't change. No experiment can give you a more accurate result.

 
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November 28, 2019, 07:11:22 PM
 #13

I personally do that when playing online games and writing my matchup and tallying it whether that was a win or the other way. But, these days you can just write it on a sticky pad if you have the app or simply use notepad. I never done such experiments just like that because if I do that, and it is effective. It might not be as effective as yours if you'll do the same. Since if the time it was successful on my part, probably my luck is rolling that time. And on yours it may not. And on some other times, I tried it again, I may not be successful doing that same method all over again.

 
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November 28, 2019, 07:12:11 PM
 #14

I've actually done this for activities where there's some level of skill involved like sports or esports betting, but purely for my own interest and not primarily to find ways to improve my performance because the analysis that I do on matches varies from match to match and I've found there's not really any one thing that I can improve on. If you're talking about tricks to win in purely luck-based games, there really are none, and house edge will cause you to lose money in the longer run anyways.

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November 28, 2019, 07:25:49 PM
 #15

If you're not keeping track of your win ratio, then you're doing it wrong. How can you expect to be profitable in gambling if you're not even sure how much you have wagered, lost and won?

As a poker player, this is completely unthinkable, everybody uses poker HUDs that automatically keep track of your EV. However, I understand that these tools aren't available for most other platforms, so it needs to be done manually.

Obviously this can be a challenge if you're a high-frequency player that uses one of the myriad dice bots or whatnot to trade, but for those low volume gamblers, there really is no excuse to not keep track of performance.


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November 28, 2019, 08:07:41 PM
 #16

I only played dice in most of my Bitcoin gambling and I don't think writing it with a pen and paper would help my chances of winning every future bet I have. For one the percentage of winning the bet can already be adjusted to their slider from 99.5% winning to even .01% of winning the bet so you already know your chance of winning your hand. What you might really be asking if there is some kind of pattern that will show up if I have written it on paper which I think won't also be useful again since most dice sites will show your previous result every time you bet, this is already enough for you to see if there is really some kind of pattern you should follow.

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November 28, 2019, 08:09:55 PM
 #17

Then conduct an analysis of the percentage of winnings to determine if there are some tricks we could find with these experiments in different gambling sites.

If the purpose is to determined if there's a trick, then you are just wasting your time.

Dice, Roulettes = luck
Sports Betting = analyzation
Mind games = strategy

I don't know how can we determined the trick based on our past bets and listing our 10 bets per day. What can we only see there is how much we risk on that week.

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November 28, 2019, 08:24:45 PM
 #18

Then conduct an analysis of the percentage of winnings to determine if there are some tricks we could find with these experiments in different gambling sites.

If the purpose is to determined if there's a trick, then you are just wasting your time.

Dice, Roulettes = luck
Sports Betting = analyzation
Mind games = strategy

I don't know how can we determined the trick based on our past bets and listing our 10 bets per day. What can we only see there is how much we risk on that week.
Those mentioned are the key strengths that makes a person win or loss in gambling. With this even if we record we're going to get the same result. Maybe Op gets an average on the winning percentage on his picks and the same can't be attributed to the gambling websites, because another person gets a different value from the one got for Op.

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[/table
christian07
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November 28, 2019, 10:26:01 PM
 #19

Yes if you know primedice then i do experiment in their gambling site like i bet with 1 satoshi or 2 satoshi something in the past like i do it for 1 hour by 1 hour then try it in 2 hour by 2 hour but unfortunately you can back only what you bet then actually you end up more on lose in the end so this is what i experiment about gambling site then better for me to do is rely in your luck in all gambling site in crypto like sports bet,casino,dice then more here in crypto world

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November 28, 2019, 10:56:02 PM
 #20

Is there anyone here who tried to experiment in online gambling sites with a pen and paper?

Here's the idea, to determine the percentage of winning, I always think of doing an experiment where I would bet in an online gambling site then each bet will be written to the paper. A total of 10 bets per day in a 1-week duration and each bet will be written and will be recorded depending if the bet is winning or losing. Then conduct an analysis of the percentage of winnings to determine if there are some tricks we could find with these experiments in different gambling sites.

If there is someone who already does this, could you please share the outcome? At what Bet you usually win? and what platform could that technique be applicable?

My response will be pointing to sports betting;

Placing 10 bets per day is not common, at least on the average sports bettors. The reason is not because of their bankroll but there are games that aren't worth to put a bet or difficult to analyze.

And it's not really necessary to do some listing of past bets here to somehow determined your weekly progress for the possible trick since every game does have a different analyzation, different odds, different status, different natures, etc. that might affect a certain game. Even the so-called head-to-head match record isn't a strong reference.

I don't know what are you trying to achieve here but even for bankroll management or playing with the odds, there isn't a trick because of the things I mentioned above. Rather than looking for a trick to increasing your winning chance rate, just stick with the sports you have knowledge. Not an assurance that you will always win but it's a good reference that you know your analyzation does make sense.

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