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Author Topic: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC]  (Read 2656 times)
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December 08, 2019, 05:26:40 PM
 #41

610,777 Grin

I clearly not know what i'm writing here

But thx for organising  Cool

XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!!  Thanks Bro
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December 08, 2019, 07:35:08 PM
 #42

I am a huge fan of math and science, but since luck gets so powerful in terms of affecting block finding in the short-term view, I have decided to drop a random number slightly based on the assumption that more blocks will be found than the average 10min per block for the coming a few weeks because of the new gears that are due to come online.

My random guess would be 610,800

Thanks bro.
Sounds reasonable. Let's see where we go. 

I clearly not know what i'm writing here
These people are usually winning. Cheesy

Good luck everyone!



@everyone else:

Still ~4 hours left to get in!

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December 08, 2019, 07:56:45 PM
 #43

If still you have time then here is mine finally: 610,540
I see lots of math and stuffs but I am going with a random guess :-P

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December 08, 2019, 08:44:15 PM
Merited by 1miau (1), Upgrade00 (1)
 #44

Today is December 8.
23 days left until January 01.
I consider the average of bitcoin block time in the last 10 days as the block time of next 23 days. 
(8.834+10.588+11.429+10.36+9.931+9.114+8.623+9.931+9.931+9.29)/10

Estimated block time: 9.867 minutes
Current block: 607263
Minutes renaming: 23*24*60+3*60+20=33320

Number of solved blocked until 2020
33320/9.867=3376

First block of 2020 = 607263+3377=610640

.
.BLACKJACK ♠ FUN.
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CRYPTO CASINO &
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December 08, 2019, 09:26:40 PM
Merited by 1miau (1)
 #45

610,699

Thanks!
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December 08, 2019, 11:42:35 PM
 #46

610640
Added

610,699
Added



Registration is closed now and I've switched the topic title to CFNP (Closed for new participants).
The list is updated, please check if your entry is correct (should be).

And hope for your block to win.  Wink

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December 09, 2019, 11:45:04 AM
Last edit: December 09, 2019, 11:55:52 AM by hosseinimr93
Merited by LoyceV (2), DdmrDdmr (2), 1miau (2), crwth (1), RapTarX (1)
 #47

Here are range of winning block numbers for each of participants.

______________________________________
           -610,366     UserU
610,366-610,427     1miau
610,427-610,497     LoyceV
610,498-610,525     Mashfiqun
610,526-610,536     RapTarX
610,537-610,539     HCP
610,539-610,541     Royse777
610,541-610,552     pooya87
610,552-610,567     Souri
610,567-610,583     naska21
610,584-610,597     hanspeter77
610,598-610,605     Swordsoffreedom
610,605-610,612     haloxon
610,612-610,615     Upgrade00
610,615-610,621     Scheede
610,621-610,631     SFR10
610,632-610,638     DdmrDdmr
610,639-610,654     hosseinimr93
610,654-610,683     nelson4lov
610,684-610,709     Phil_S
610,710-610,745     crwth
610,745-610,773     GazetaBitcoin
610,774-610,788     micgoossens
610,789-610,855     mikeywith
610,855-                 Last of the V8s

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.BLACKJACK ♠ FUN.
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SPORTS BETTING
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December 09, 2019, 11:59:45 AM
 #48

^ Ooh very nice range-list there hossein.
Sadly we attracted no newbies Undecided

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December 09, 2019, 12:36:59 PM
Last edit: December 09, 2019, 01:18:26 PM by mikeywith
 #49

Sadly we attracted no newbies Undecided

I blame the word (educational) in the title for this, i am pretty sure a tittle such as ( Free bitcoin game ) would have attracted way too many newbies, most people want no education , they just want free bitcoin.

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December 09, 2019, 11:33:06 PM
Merited by mikeywith (1)
 #50

Sadly we attracted no newbies Undecided

I blame the word (educational) in the title for this, i am pretty sure a tittle such as ( Free bitcoin game ) would have attracted way too many newbies, most people want no education , they just want free bitcoin.
I'm also a little bit disappointed about the low participation, I did the same sort of giveaway in the German section and had a few more users willing to join (the list is a little bit misleading, users were allowed to choose 2 numbers)

Next time I will change the name to: [GET RICH!!!] FREE Bitcoin giveaway!!! When Lambo / When Moon?



Latest projection: 607,431 (current block) + (22*144) = 610,599

Here are range of winning block numbers for each of participants.

______________________________________
610,598-610,605     Swordsoffreedom

Great list!  Wink

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December 10, 2019, 12:45:33 AM
 #51

Next time I will change the name to: [GET RICH!!!] FREE Bitcoin giveaway!!! When Lambo / When Moon?

That will do better indeed, the section also matters I believe, as funny as it sounds, not so many newbies are active in B&H, but hey don't feel bad, you did great.

Quote
Latest projection: 607,431 (current block) + (22*144) = 610,599

We are 18 blocks ahead , such a good start for the guys at the bottom of the list   Grin

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December 10, 2019, 01:15:15 AM
 #52

Next time I will change the name to: [GET RICH!!!] FREE Bitcoin giveaway!!! When Lambo / When Moon?

That will do better indeed, the section also matters I believe, as funny as it sounds, not so many newbies are active in B&H, but hey don't feel bad, you did great.
I can move it to Bounties (Altcoins) and see what's happening.  Cheesy Cheesy
(People trying to apply with Twitter and Facebook profile links  Cheesy)

But after all I'm totally ok and not sad about it, the outcome is far better than it would have been somewhere else. Many people submitted very detailed explanations.


Quote
Latest projection: 607,431 (current block) + (22*144) = 610,599

We are 18 blocks ahead , such a good start for the guys at the bottom of the list   Grin
I'm sure we'll see even lower numbers...
... maybe


2 weeks ago we were lower already:

35 Tage * 144 Blöcke pro Tag = 5.040 Blöcke

=>

5.040 + 605.517 (aktueller Block) = 610.557

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December 10, 2019, 12:07:29 PM
 #53

the outcome is far better than it would have been somewhere else. Many people submitted very detailed explanations.

True, that is a plus, if the topic was somewhere else, most entries would have been just the prediction which was not the case here.


Quote
I'm sure we'll see even lower numbers...
... maybe


2 weeks ago we were lower already:


True, but 2 weeks ago is a different story , the reason is the majority of pre-order for Bitmain new 7nm mining gears including but not limited to T17,T17e and S17 are due to ship in the coming days, if there is no delay, and no major drop in bitcoin price that will force old mining gears like S9 to go offline, end of the month should witness a huge spike in hashrate before difficulty could adjust, thus finding more and more blocks.

again these are all just speculations that might never work  Grin


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GazetaBitcoin
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December 10, 2019, 03:04:36 PM
 #54

It would be nice to have also a similar contest for BTC price on January 1st 2020 Smiley

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LoyceV
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December 10, 2019, 04:48:54 PM
 #55

Latest projection: 607,431 (current block) + (22*144) = 610,599
So I need about a day of blockchain rewind due to a 51% attack to win. Or a large enough drop in Bitcoin price to make 5% of all miners pull the plug. I happily accept defeat over of those 2 scenarios Smiley

It would be nice to have also a similar contest for BTC price on January 1st 2020 Smiley
See Q4 -Quarter 4 speculation thread, where will 2019 end, join the LIST!

I might have been 175% more optimistic than the current price.

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RapTarX
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December 11, 2019, 01:26:19 AM
 #56

@1miau
safari88 has been excluded from the list for not fulfilling the rules of the giveaway; 5 earned merits, which I guess can't prevent cheating. Wouldn't it be better if we had him in the list as well. Either way, you can't prevent cheating through requiring 5 earned merit.
Anyway, this is a great learning thread for me. Thank you for the unique giveaway. Otherwise, I wouldn't learn things discussed here.

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December 11, 2019, 02:44:29 AM
 #57

I'm also a little bit disappointed about the low participation, I did the same sort of giveaway in the German section and had a few more users willing to join (the list is a little bit misleading, users were allowed to choose 2 numbers)
Correct me if I'm wrong [I do not understand the language], but I think "no merits requirements" on the other thread might've been the main reason instead:

- Um Schummeleien einzugrenzen, muss euer Account signifikant aktiv gewesen sein, ich reserviere mir das Recht, neue oder verdächtige Accounts ohne Begründung abzulehnen.
Quote from: Google translate
- To limit cheating, your account must have been significantly active, I reserve the right to reject new or suspicious accounts without justification.

Perhaps you should reconsider that rule [merit requirements] for your next giveaway [if there will be any] and only allow users up to member rank to join in.

I can move it to Bounties (Altcoins) and see what's happening.  Cheesy Cheesy
(People trying to apply with Twitter and Facebook profile links  Cheesy)
Cheesy Wink

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GazetaBitcoin
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December 11, 2019, 06:46:59 AM
 #58


Hehe it seems I missed that! But it's fun to see such topics here Smiley Maybe I'll catch another one.

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1miau (OP)
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December 11, 2019, 11:47:38 PM
Merited by RapTarX (1)
 #59

@1miau
safari88 has been excluded from the list for not fulfilling the rules of the giveaway; 5 earned merits, which I guess can't prevent cheating. Wouldn't it be better if we had him in the list as well.
Yeah, he didn't meet the 5 earned Merit criteria but I'm always open for discussions to avoid unfair rules. He doesn't seem like an abuser so I'll add a poll if we should include him or not.

Either way, you can't prevent cheating through requiring 5 earned merit.
It won't prevent cheating completely but exclude ~99% of farmed / bought / hacked accounts. We had a time before 1 Merit was required for Jr. Member and for my impression most shitposters shifted to the strategie to farm dozens of those Jr. Members before the new rule was introduced. In addition, there are still masses of untagged Newbies used for bumping services et al. and I don't want to get into trouble when such people get to know about this giveaway. Fixed rules avoid most problems.

Poll added: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205895.0 (Poll will run 7 days until December 18, 2019, 11:59:59 PM)



I'm also a little bit disappointed about the low participation, I did the same sort of giveaway in the German section and had a few more users willing to join (the list is a little bit misleading, users were allowed to choose 2 numbers)
Correct me if I'm wrong [I do not understand the language], but I think "no merits requirements" on the other thread might've been the main reason instead:

- Um Schummeleien einzugrenzen, muss euer Account signifikant aktiv gewesen sein, ich reserviere mir das Recht, neue oder verdächtige Accounts ohne Begründung abzulehnen.
Quote from: Google translate
- To limit cheating, your account must have been significantly active, I reserve the right to reject new or suspicious accounts without justification.
Yes, for my German version, I had a different rule for that criteria but finally only 1 or 2 users had a lower Merit count than 5 earned Merit.

Perhaps you should reconsider that rule [merit requirements] for your next giveaway [if there will be any] and only allow users up to member rank to join in.
Of course, I'm always considering adjustments to accept as many users as possible. It's quite difficult to find a good solution for the users and to prevent cheating. In our local board cheating isn't an issue, we have rarely few translation spammers but as they don't understand German, they don't enter my giveaway and I reviewed possible abusers manually.  Tongue
I wasn't sure if that approach would work also for international giveaways and didn't want to take a risk, so I decided to set a criteria of at least 5 earned Merit.
5 earned Merit is still low, similar giveaways have mostly 10 Merit:

-to participate you must HAVE 10 MERIT and at least 50 ACTIVITY
(Don't know if only earned Merit or not)

- 1 Account pro Person, der Account muss mindestens 10 Merits verdient haben. Habt ihr die Merits nicht, dann könnt ihr alternativ auch gerne 0,002 BTC in den Pool beisteuern!
(German version of Q4 prediction: 1 account per user, you need to have at least 10 earned Merit. If you don't have 10 earned Merit, you can participate if you donate at least 0,002 BTC to the prize pool)

But your suggestion "at least Member or above" could also be a fair solution.

Perhaps you should reconsider that rule [merit requirements] for your next giveaway [if there will be any] and only allow users up to member rank to join in.
I hope so.  Wink

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LoyceV
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December 12, 2019, 08:18:39 AM
Last edit: December 12, 2019, 08:49:59 AM by LoyceV
Merited by RapTarX (1)
 #60

Yeah, he didn't meet the 5 earned Merit criteria but I'm always open for discussions to avoid unfair rules. He doesn't seem like an abuser so I'll add a poll if we should include him or not.
I voted No. Changing the rules after the start of the game can only lead to drama if it leads to someone else being the winner.

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