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Title: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on November 30, 2019, 08:35:57 PM [Closed for new participants]
Instead of guessing the last numbers of a random block hash or the BTC-price at a defined date you need to guess Bitcoin’s first block in 2020, the next decade which will hopefully be a good one for BTC. I’ve chosen that special type of giveaway to encourage users doing research about Bitcoin’s block creation process. Predicting a block mined at a specified time can be anticipated to a certain degree when you know about the factors how block generation process is done. Important questions related to this giveaway: - How many blocks are generated per hour? - What does mining difficulty mean? - What’s a mining difficulty adjustment? - When are such adjustments done? - How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process? … For detailed explanations how you calculated your nominated number, I might give some Merit in addition. Of course, it requires a good portion of luck because all the factors are very volatile and until 2020 it’s still a long way to go. To win this giveaway you have to predict the first block mined in 2020. The one coming closest will win the prize. Should we get a tie, the money will be divided equally. Relevant time is CET (Berlin time) after 23.59.59. First place: 6 mBTC:
Second place: 3.5 mBTC:
If someone wants to donate a few mBTC to the prize pool, feel free to leave a post. ;) Every donator sends his allocated amount directly to the winners after it has published its address in 2020. Rules (Please read! If you are caught not reading the rules, I reserve the right to reject you):
Note: it can take a while until I’ve time to edit the list. Good luck everyone! :) :) Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [7.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on November 30, 2019, 08:36:14 PM Participants
Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [7.5 mBTC] Post by: AB de Royse777 on November 30, 2019, 08:45:19 PM Sorry to interrupt but it really looks like a topic for games and rounds :-)
By the way good initiative. I can put 2mBTC. So get me in, in something. Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [7.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on November 30, 2019, 08:58:26 PM Sorry to interrupt but it really looks like a topic for games and rounds :-) Thanks for the feedback. I've intentionally placed it in Beginners and Help to encourage users doing research about Bitcoin's block generation process and I'll reward good explanations with Merit. If a moderator decides to move it to games and rounds I'm not sure if participants consider the educational aspect but rather spam just a number to participate. ^^ By the way good initiative. I can put 2mBTC. So get me in, in something. Much appreciated. :)The 2 mBTC should be splitted equally for 1st and 2nd place? First place: 6 mBTC:
Second place: 3.5 mBTC:
Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [7.5 mBTC] Post by: AB de Royse777 on November 30, 2019, 09:10:39 PM Much appreciated. :) Fine with it. The 2 mBTC should be splitted equally for 1st and 2nd place? First place: 6 mBTC:
Second place: 3.5 mBTC:
Please don't forget to PM me in case if I forget about this. Not going to active the notification coz it will boombared my inbox lol. Good luck to the participants. Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [7.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on November 30, 2019, 09:28:30 PM Fine with it. +1Please don't forget to PM me in case if I forget about this. Not going to active the notification coz it will boombared my inbox lol. Alright :DGood luck to the participants. And don't forget to nominate a number to be in for the prize. :) Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: HCP on December 01, 2019, 02:28:38 AM I'll take the "easy" route...
610538 For the benefit of others, I'll explain how I derived that value. Basically... time to the CET midnight cutoff = 30 days, 20 hours 37 mins => (((30 * 24) + 20) * 60) + 37) minutes => 44437 minutes until the midnight cutoff... "Average" desired blocktime is 10 minutes/block... so 44437/10 => 4443.7 blocks should be mined before that time. Current block height is 606095... so 606095 + 4443 = 610538. This ignores a LOT of variables mentioned in the OP, like difficulty adjustments etc... but I'm lazy and wanted to force others to do the hard work ;) Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: RapTarX on December 01, 2019, 05:30:42 AM The probable first block for of 2020 will be 610535
As per the normal calculation, we have 144 blocks each day. It's almost 6:00 AM CET (Edit- It was when I started writing this post, it took me almost 30 minutes to write this post.) We have 30 days & 18 hours to go. 30*144 + 18*6 = 4428 The current block is 606110 Probable block will be 610538 but I have reduced 3 blocks because current block was mined almost 26 minutes ago. My prediction- 610535 - How many blocks are generated per hour? - What does mining difficulty mean? - What’s a mining difficulty adjustment? - When are such adjustments done? - How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process? - 144 blocks are generated per day, so 144÷24= 6 blocks per hour. It can be lower as well sometimes or even higher. That's why we say average block time is 10 minutes. - Mining difficulty is measurement of generating of a block. I'm confused here to be honest. - To keep up the average block times of 10 minutes, mining adjustment happen which ensure the emission rate of bitcoin are not oncreasing/decreasing. For instance; maintaining 144 blocks = maintaining 144*12.5=1800 BTC per day. - On every 2016 blocks, mining adjustment happen. - When BTC price increases, number of miners also increases; as a result the difficulty also increases. Because of many miners into the process, I guess block generation get easy. Confused again I have taken some info from a thread for learning the 5th number question. Thread- https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2344801.0 Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Upgrade00 on December 01, 2019, 08:11:58 AM @RaptarX has explained most of the questions already. On the topic of mining difficulty; to my understanding, it is the level of difficulty in finding a block. Miners are required to solve complex computing work, this is the mining difficulty.
That's why it's run on the PoW algorithm; Proof of Work, the computing work verifies the block and also prevents and malicious attempts on the chain. The mining difficulty is adjusted to maintain the number of bitcoins created on average. The difficulty could be increased or decreased. It is done every 2016 blocks - How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process? Miners earn a fixed number of bitcoins per block created, regardless of the value of bitcoins at that point. A decrease or increase in price would affect their reward. If the price increases, mining becomes more profitable and attracts more miners and this increases the blocks created, and the mining difficulty is adjusted to balance the rate, so only the miners with the best mining rigs can find blocks. So the cost of mining increases.Also if the price drops, mining becomes less profitable and miners could drop out reducing the competition and the rate at which blocks are found, the mining difficulty would be reduced, this reduces the cost of mining. So the existing rigs find blocks faster. In my opinion, the price of Bitcoin and the mining difficulty are interdependent and balance each other. Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Upgrade00 on December 01, 2019, 09:06:22 AM I'm making a new post as I've already edited my current post and do not want to edit my number into it.
There's 30 days and 14 hours left till 2020. So: (30 x 24) + 14.44 = 734. in minutes = 734.44 x 60 = 44040 On average a block is mines every 10 minutes, although some sites average it to 9.5 minutes, in the coming four weeks I'll leave the average at 9.8 minutes. So, 44040/9.8 = 4493.9 blocks Current block height: 606120, adding 4493.9 ~ 610,614 I'm a newbie, so this is a wild prediction, also there is a little time irregularity due to posting time. Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Souri on December 01, 2019, 05:52:23 PM I am picking 610.562 as it is the rounded average guess of all the participants of this game in the German section. ;)
Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 01, 2019, 08:11:32 PM I'm very much newbie & have almost zero knowledge on mining. Had some researched & I would like to assist newbie so that they can understand how things happen. No need to be confused, good explanation. ;)- 144 blocks are generated per day, so 144÷24= 6 blocks per hour. It can be lower as well sometimes or even higher. That's why we say average block time is 10 minutes. - Mining difficulty is measurement of generating of a block. I'm confused here to be honest. - To keep up the average block times of 10 minutes, mining adjustment happen which ensure the emission rate of bitcoin are not oncreasing/decreasing. For instance; maintaining 144 blocks = maintaining 144*12.5=1800 BTC per day. - On every 2016 blocks, mining adjustment happen. - When BTC price increases, number of miners also increases; as a result the difficulty also increases. Because of many miners into the process, I guess block generation get easy. Confused again I have taken some info from a thread for learning the 5th number question. Thread- https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2344801.0 More miners = more hashrate = more blocks produced until the next difficulty adjustment (difficulty will be increased to keep the blocktime of 10 minutes in average) Less miners = less hashrate = less blocks produced until the next difficulty adjustment (difficulty will be decreased to keep the blocktime of 10 minutes in average) @RaptarX has explained most of the questions already. On the topic of mining difficulty; to my understanding, it is the level of difficulty in finding a block. Miners are required to solve complex computing work, this is the mining difficulty. Exactly. Finally, the most profitable miners will remain. That includes different parts: That's why it's run on the PoW algorithm; Proof of Work, the computing work verifies the block and also prevents and malicious attempts on the chain. The mining difficulty is adjusted to maintain the number of bitcoins created on average. The difficulty could be increased or decreased. It is done every 2016 blocks Miners earn a fixed number of bitcoins per block created, regardless of the value of bitcoins at that point. A decrease or increase in price would affect their reward. If the price increases, mining becomes more profitable and attracts more miners and this increases the blocks created, and the mining difficulty is adjusted to balance the rate, so only the miners with the best mining rigs can find blocks. So the cost of mining increases. Also if the price drops, mining becomes less profitable and miners could drop out reducing the competition and the rate at which blocks are found, the mining difficulty would be reduced, this reduces the cost of mining. So the existing rigs find blocks faster. In my opinion, the price of Bitcoin and the mining difficulty are interdependent and balance each other. - most important: electricity price - mining equipment and its efficiency - expenses for cooling - expenses for location - expenses for staff - expenses for taxes ... Less profitable miners will shut down when it's not profitable for them anymore. reason: mojo Well, that's not enough for a Merit. :PTitle: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: LoyceV on December 01, 2019, 09:09:34 PM Important questions to related to this giveaway: Although I could try to answer all those questions, there's a much simpler way: extrapolation! During the past month, the exact same questions were valid, but they've already been answered on the blockchain.- How many blocks are generated per hour? - What does mining difficulty mean? - What’s a mining difficulty adjustment? - When are such adjustments done? - How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process? The only real variable that's left is the Bitcoin price: if it goes up a lot, the hashrate will go up. But I don't expect it to change much in just a month. My guess We're in the same timezone, so that's easy. There are 30 days and 2 hours left. The current latest block is 606211 (https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/606211). Going back 30 days and 2 hours, we're looking at November 1, 20:00h. Now all I have to do is find the closest block: 601943 (https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/601943). The difference: 606211-601943=4268 blocks. My estimate: 606211+4268=610479 My guess for the first block of 2020: 610479 (https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/610479). I don't think it's very likely to be correct though: 4268 blocks is less than what's expected in 30 days, 2 hours: (30*24+2)*6=4332, and at increasing hashrate miners are usually a bit faster than what's expected. So it could be the hashrate dropped in the past month (due to the price drop), and if that's the case, the hashrate has to continue dropping for my prediction to become true. I love educated guesses :D Unless this was for Beginners only? The title makes it look that way, but the rest of the topic doesn't look like it. Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: mikeywith on December 01, 2019, 11:05:58 PM the hashrate has to continue dropping Which never happens "sadly" Most people have this misconception about bitcoin price vs hashrate/difficulty , this is normal for people who are not heavily invested in mining , but if you have been mining for long enough then you know that theory is invalid. in theory, it makes sense that if price drops the following happens 1- mining becomes less profitable 2- hashrate decreases and so does difficulty. While the first one is correct, the second one is invalid , the reason is "efficiency", mining gears become more efficient everyday, so consuming the same amount of energy today gets you more than double the hashrate as opposed of 2017. another factor is , while miners as "PEOPLE" leave the game, mining gears take way too long to leave the network, simply because there are always people with cheaper power rate who will buy the mining gears from those who pay more for electricity , for an example , a guy in west EU can't make any more profit with say Antminer S9 today, that S9 won't be stored in the garage for good or thrown away, it will be sold to the guy in east EU or sent back to China and those guys who have better power rate will re-plug that S9 back to the network. Below is a chart form Tradingview contains all hashrate data from 2010 to present day, each candle represents one full month of data https://i.imgur.com/lLo0gGM.jpg BTC had a few tragic bear markets, hashrate never really had , hashrate seldom goes down, it stays flat for a while and then move up, Bitmain is due to ship a dozen of mining gears during this month (pre-order) , and my guess is that even if price keeps going lower , hashrate will only go higher for months to come, unless something out of the ordinary happens. If I may, i would add a "cheat" tool (https://diff.cryptothis.com/) for this giveaway , this tool predicts the next difficulty , sadly it's less efficient for long term since the deadline is 06.12.2019, this other tool (https://btc.com/stats/diff) contains historical data inculding number of blocks found in each round, not really the best way to estimate a block that's a month away, but a good tool to give you an "outside the box" view of how this difficulty thing actually effects the block production. @miau sorry for this long post, I tried to stay on topic as much as i could , I just can't help not posting when it's anything mining related, I will post my guess later after discussing the matter with Jihan Wu. ;D Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: UserU on December 02, 2019, 01:51:17 AM I'll go for 610,357 :D
Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 02, 2019, 02:38:08 AM Although I could try to answer all those questions, there's a much simpler way: extrapolation! Nice attempt! I expect it will drop further, so my nominated number is again 100 blocks less. ;)Unless this was for Beginners only? The title makes it look that way, but the rest of the topic doesn't look like it. Of course it's open for everyone! ;)But you are somehow right, the title is a bit misleading, I meant "giveaway for beginner's education". Do you have some suggestions to improve it? Note: characters are limited, only 10 left. :) @mikeywith Also a nice explanation, but I have to disagree because my number is 610,375 ;) the hashrate has to continue dropping Which never happens "sadly" ... We are at a price range now where it's likely that another drop of hashrate might occur at any time when price drops further: https://i.imgur.com/dE1TkbX.jpg https://btc.com/stats/diff For me, (I'm not involved in mining) it looks like that some miners aren't making much profit right now and consider to shut down. Most people have this misconception about bitcoin price vs hashrate/difficulty , this is normal for people who are not heavily invested in mining , but if you have been mining for long enough then you know that theory is invalid. 8)But the question is: will these normal people win the giveaway? :P BTC had a few tragic bear markets, hashrate never really had , hashrate seldom goes down, it stays flat for a while and then move up, Bitmain is due to ship a dozen of mining gears during this month (pre-order) , and my guess is that even if price keeps going lower , hashrate will only go higher for months to come, unless something out of the ordinary happens. It'll be interesting to see what's happening when the halving is coming should the price stay around similar levels like right now. If I may, i would add a "cheat" tool (https://diff.cryptothis.com/) for this giveaway , this tool predicts the next difficulty , sadly it's less efficient for long term since the deadline is 06.12.2019, this other tool (https://btc.com/stats/diff) contains historical data inculding number of blocks found in each round, not really the best way to estimate a block that's a month away, but a good tool to give you an "outside the box" view of how this difficulty thing actually effects the block production. Yeah, I'm using BTC.com normally and as far as I know it's a good source. @miau sorry for this long post, I tried to stay on topic as much as i could , I just can't help not posting when it's anything mining related, I will post my guess later after discussing the matter with Jihan Wu. ;D I like detailed and insightful posts and it's actually what I've hoped for as outcome of my giveaway, so don't worry at all. Your comment is much appreciated. ;)Looking forward to your number! Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: GazetaBitcoin on December 02, 2019, 12:35:57 PM Well, I'll give it a try too :)
Latest block as of now is 606309 (https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/00000000000000000000a6aa810398698e60770f728f276185dbe0316e37cf5d), at CET date & time December 2nd, 1.35PM. Considering the following: - until December 31st at 11:59PM are 42.385 minutes remaining (625 minutes left from today and 41.760 for the interval 03-31 December (29 days*24h*60 minutes = 41.760)), - an average time of 9.5 minutes to find a new block (this time varies, being conditioned by several factors, such as the difficulty), - 42.385 : 9.5 = 4461.57, I consider the 1st block of 2020 will be the block number 610.770 (606.309 + 4461 = 610.770). Let's Hope for the best :) Title: Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 02, 2019, 05:48:36 PM I love educated guesses :D I've adjusted the title replacing "Beginner's giveaway" by "Educational giveaway", hope it's better now and people don't think it's for beginners only. :DUnless this was for Beginners only? The title makes it look that way, but the rest of the topic doesn't look like it. I consider the 1st block of 2020 will be the block number 610.770 (606.309 + 4461 = 610.770). Added to my list. :) Let's Hope for the best :) Yess =)Good luck! Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Mashfiqun on December 02, 2019, 06:04:06 PM I'll have a go at 610,516
Let's see what comes up. Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Last of the V8s on December 02, 2019, 06:23:36 PM Relevant time is CET (Berlin time) ::)What a very nice educational thread, to which I've nothing to add but my guess, based on an ever-present impression that there's a wall of machines about to come online: 610910 tyvm Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Swordsoffreedom on December 02, 2019, 09:34:35 PM 610600
My BTC address 12yXHZE3vpqn7gSi5eLxV61sHwY1pJbQ6C Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: nelson4lov on December 03, 2019, 09:41:48 AM On average, 146 blocks are mined per day. Taking the current block height of 606434 into consideration, there are 31 days in December. So the predicted number of blocks would be 31 * 146 = 4526 blocks. Deducting blocks of the last 2 days,
Quote 4526 - (146 * 2) = 4234. Referenced block 606434 + 4234 = 610,668. Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: naska21 on December 03, 2019, 03:12:11 PM Without further ado and averaging first 12 guesses I predict 610572
Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: DdmrDdmr on December 03, 2019, 05:06:19 PM Since all the science has already been used, and assuming that the range in the current entries is reasonable, I went for an approach similar to how the Magic Number for Legendary Activity is generated (with a change from sha1 to SHA2_256, since sha1 is deprecated on my SQL version, and a few others due to datatype stuff):
Quote select 610357 + convert(int,convert(varbinary,convert(varchar,'0x' + substring(convert(varchar, HASHBYTES('SHA2_256',@MySeed),1),3,2),1),1))*2 Result: 610637Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Scheede on December 03, 2019, 10:04:50 PM Since all the science has already been used, and assuming that the range in the current entries is reasonable, I went for an approach similar to how the Magic Number for Legendary Activity is generated (with a change from sha1 to SHA2_256, since sha1 is deprecated on my SQL version, and a few others due to datatype stuff): Quote select 610357 + convert(int,convert(varbinary,convert(varchar,'0x' + substring(convert(varchar, HASHBYTES('SHA2_256',@MySeed),1),3,2),1),1))*2 Result: 610637Love you, nerd ;) Will try to take advantage of your knowledge and drop a guess for 610616 Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: RapTarX on December 04, 2019, 07:11:39 AM Since all the science has already been used, and assuming that the range in the current entries is reasonable, I went for an approach similar to how the Magic Number for Legendary Activity is generated Most creative way ever existed :DWell, the 2016 block adjustment will happen at 608832 blocks and it's very possible that we may have some quicker blocks than the actual average of 10 minutes. Your prediction is 78 blocks higher than the average one. Good luck. Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: SFR10 on December 05, 2019, 09:52:58 AM I developed my own formula [inspired by "DdmrDdmr"]:
521899 [my UID] /3636 [my post count, including this post] x 27 [days left, I do know it's actually 26 days, 19 hours, 11 minutes] + 606751 [latest block] = 610,626.48 - I do know that there are already a lot of educated guesses but I prefer to lock mine to 610,626 :) Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: pooya87 on December 05, 2019, 04:15:50 PM 610,542 using the the good old 144 * days method. :P
Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: safari88 on December 05, 2019, 06:07:20 PM i just take a random number so my guess will be 610548
Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: GazetaBitcoin on December 05, 2019, 06:43:32 PM 610,542 using the the good old 144 * days method. :P What is the good 144 * days method? :)Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 06, 2019, 02:46:50 AM @everyone: due to low participation I've extended the registration from 06.12.2019 at 23.59.59 CET (Berlin Time) to 08.12.2019 at 23.59.59 CET (Berlin Time).
Since all the science has already been used, and assuming that the range in the current entries is reasonable, I went for an approach similar to how the Magic Number for Legendary Activity is generated (with a change from sha1 to SHA2_256, since sha1 is deprecated on my SQL version, and a few others due to datatype stuff): Quote select 610357 + convert(int,convert(varbinary,convert(varchar,'0x' + substring(convert(varchar, HASHBYTES('SHA2_256',@MySeed),1),3,2),1),1))*2 Result: 610637I developed my own formula [inspired by "DdmrDdmr"]: Nice ones. ;)521899 [my UID] /3636 [my post count, including this post] x 27 [days left, I do know it's actually 26 days, 19 hours, 11 minutes] + 606751 [latest block] = 610,626.48 - I do know that there are already a lot of educated guesses but I prefer to lock mine to 610,626 :) @SFR10 may I ask how long did it take until the calculation was at least somehow close to an realistic number? :D Since all the science has already been used, and assuming that the range in the current entries is reasonable, I went for an approach similar to how the Magic Number for Legendary Activity is generated Most creative way ever existed :DWell, the 2016 block adjustment will happen at 608832 blocks and it's very possible that we may have some quicker blocks than the actual average of 10 minutes. Your prediction is 78 blocks higher than the average one. Good luck. It's all depending if BTC will dump again (and miners switch off for my expectation). Right now, BTC isn't moving much up / down, so miners are relatively stable. When BTC price is going sideways, I expect an increasing hashrate and as a result faster blocks and DdmrDdmr's "prediction" could come true. i just take a random number so my guess will be 610548 Sorry, but all participants have to follow my rules and I can't accept your number. :-\Rules (Please read! If you are caught not reading the rules, I reserve the right to reject you):
610,542 using the the good old 144 * days method. :P What is the good 144 * days method? :)New projection: 37,225 Minutes / 10 Blocks + 606,852 (current Block) = 610,574 Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: pooya87 on December 06, 2019, 05:10:46 AM 610,542 using the the good old 144 * days method. :P What is the good 144 * days method? :)it is the lazy inaccurate way of calculating how many blocks are going to be mined in N days. there is no guarantee to have 1 block every 10 minute, but usually the average is that. 1 day is 24 hours and 1 hour is 6x 10 minutes so we can see 6*24=144 blocks in one day. a better way is to extrapolate the data that we have from previous weeks, at least for 5 difficulty adjustment period. i tried doing that using blockchair API but faced some problems and gave up ::) Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: GazetaBitcoin on December 06, 2019, 07:00:03 AM Ah, I understood now! Thx for the explanation :)
Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: crwth on December 06, 2019, 07:25:38 AM Latest block mined is 606,876 during the making of this post
With the unexpected addition of hash power, the average is now 9.5 minutes [1] (https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoins-are-there/) 25 days, 8 hours, 38 minutes and 35 seconds remaining till January 1. or 36,518 minutes (rounded down) [2] (https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?d1=6&m1=12&y1=2019&d2=1&m2=1&y2=2020&h1=15&i1=21&s1=25&h2=0&i2=0&s2=0) 36518/9.5 = 3844 blocks 606876+3844 = 610720 <- My prediction [1] - https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoins-are-there/ [2] - https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?d1=6&m1=12&y1=2019&d2=1&m2=1&y2=2020&h1=15&i1=21&s1=25&h2=0&i2=0&s2=0 Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: SFR10 on December 06, 2019, 07:26:21 AM @SFR10 may I ask how long did it take until the calculation was at least somehow close to an realistic number? :D It took around 15ish minutes [5th attempt] to come up with a formula that was close enough to be considered an average of other results [perhaps I got lucky :D].Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: hanspeter77 on December 07, 2019, 09:48:16 AM i take 610595
Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Last of the V8s on December 07, 2019, 10:45:55 AM I am going to win and I am going to be rich you have been warned.
Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: GazetaBitcoin on December 07, 2019, 04:13:32 PM Of course you are! :)
Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 08, 2019, 02:28:53 AM I am going to win and I am going to be rich you have been warned. Well, don't celebrate too early. ;)It's still a long way to go and I've advertised this giveaway to get some WO regulars in. ^^ I am going to win and I am going to be rich you have been warned. Don't let him win so easily! :PBut I guess you'll get rich anyway, I hope all of us will be rich. ;) Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: mikeywith on December 08, 2019, 04:40:20 PM I am a huge fan of math and science, but since luck gets so powerful in terms of affecting block finding in the short-term view, I have decided to drop a random number slightly based on the assumption that more blocks will be found than the average 10min per block for the coming a few weeks because of the new gears that are due to come online.
My random guess would be 610,800 Thanks bro. Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: El duderino_ on December 08, 2019, 05:26:40 PM 610,777 ;D
I clearly not know what i'm writing here But thx for organising 8) Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 08, 2019, 07:35:08 PM I am a huge fan of math and science, but since luck gets so powerful in terms of affecting block finding in the short-term view, I have decided to drop a random number slightly based on the assumption that more blocks will be found than the average 10min per block for the coming a few weeks because of the new gears that are due to come online. Sounds reasonable. Let's see where we go. My random guess would be 610,800 Thanks bro. I clearly not know what i'm writing here These people are usually winning. :DGood luck everyone! @everyone else: Still ~4 hours left to get in! Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: AB de Royse777 on December 08, 2019, 07:56:45 PM If still you have time then here is mine finally: 610,540
I see lots of math and stuffs but I am going with a random guess :-P Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: hosseinimr93 on December 08, 2019, 08:44:15 PM Today is December 8.
23 days left until January 01. I consider the average of bitcoin block time in the last 10 days (https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-confirmationtime.html) as the block time of next 23 days. (8.834+10.588+11.429+10.36+9.931+9.114+8.623+9.931+9.931+9.29)/10 Estimated block time: 9.867 minutes Current block: 607263 Minutes renaming: 23*24*60+3*60+20=33320 Number of solved blocked until 2020 33320/9.867=3376 First block of 2020 = 607263+3377=610640 Title: Re: Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Phil_S on December 08, 2019, 09:26:40 PM 610,699
Thanks! Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 08, 2019, 11:42:35 PM 610640 Added610,699 AddedRegistration is closed now and I've switched the topic title to CFNP (Closed for new participants). The list (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205895.msg53224874#msg53224874) is updated, please check if your entry is correct (should be). And hope for your block to win. ;) Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: hosseinimr93 on December 09, 2019, 11:45:04 AM Here are range of winning block numbers for each of participants.
Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Last of the V8s on December 09, 2019, 11:59:45 AM ^ Ooh very nice range-list there hossein.
Sadly we attracted no newbies :-\ Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: mikeywith on December 09, 2019, 12:36:59 PM Sadly we attracted no newbies :-\ I blame the word (educational) in the title for this, i am pretty sure a tittle such as ( Free bitcoin game ) would have attracted way too many newbies, most people want no education , they just want free bitcoin. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 09, 2019, 11:33:06 PM Sadly we attracted no newbies :-\ I blame the word (educational) in the title for this, i am pretty sure a tittle such as ( Free bitcoin game ) would have attracted way too many newbies, most people want no education , they just want free bitcoin. Next time I will change the name to: [GET RICH!!!] FREE Bitcoin giveaway!!! When Lambo / When Moon? Latest projection: 607,431 (current block) + (22*144) = 610,599 Here are range of winning block numbers for each of participants. Great list! ;)
Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: mikeywith on December 10, 2019, 12:45:33 AM Next time I will change the name to: [GET RICH!!!] FREE Bitcoin giveaway!!! When Lambo / When Moon? That will do better indeed, the section also matters I believe, as funny as it sounds, not so many newbies are active in B&H, but hey don't feel bad, you did great. Quote Latest projection: 607,431 (current block) + (22*144) = 610,599 We are 18 blocks ahead , such a good start for the guys at the bottom of the list ;D Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 10, 2019, 01:15:15 AM Next time I will change the name to: [GET RICH!!!] FREE Bitcoin giveaway!!! When Lambo / When Moon? That will do better indeed, the section also matters I believe, as funny as it sounds, not so many newbies are active in B&H, but hey don't feel bad, you did great. (People trying to apply with Twitter and Facebook profile links :D) But after all I'm totally ok and not sad about it, the outcome is far better than it would have been somewhere else. Many people submitted very detailed explanations. Quote Latest projection: 607,431 (current block) + (22*144) = 610,599 We are 18 blocks ahead , such a good start for the guys at the bottom of the list ;D ... maybe 2 weeks ago we were lower already: 35 Tage * 144 Blöcke pro Tag = 5.040 Blöcke => 5.040 + 605.517 (aktueller Block) = 610.557 Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: mikeywith on December 10, 2019, 12:07:29 PM the outcome is far better than it would have been somewhere else. Many people submitted very detailed explanations. True, that is a plus, if the topic was somewhere else, most entries would have been just the prediction which was not the case here. Quote I'm sure we'll see even lower numbers... ... maybe 2 weeks ago we were lower already: True, but 2 weeks ago is a different story , the reason is the majority of pre-order for Bitmain new 7nm mining gears including but not limited to T17,T17e and S17 are due to ship in the coming days, if there is no delay, and no major drop in bitcoin price that will force old mining gears like S9 to go offline, end of the month should witness a huge spike in hashrate before difficulty could adjust, thus finding more and more blocks. again these are all just speculations that might never work ;D Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: GazetaBitcoin on December 10, 2019, 03:04:36 PM It would be nice to have also a similar contest for BTC price on January 1st 2020 :)
Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: LoyceV on December 10, 2019, 04:48:54 PM Latest projection: 607,431 (current block) + (22*144) = 610,599 So I need about a day of blockchain rewind due to a 51% attack to win. Or a large enough drop in Bitcoin price to make 5% of all miners pull the plug. I happily accept defeat over of those 2 scenarios :)It would be nice to have also a similar contest for BTC price on January 1st 2020 :) See Q4 -Quarter 4 speculation thread, where will 2019 end, join the LIST (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.0)!I might have been 175% more optimistic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52631776#msg52631776) than the current price. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: RapTarX on December 11, 2019, 01:26:19 AM @1miau
safari88 has been excluded from the list for not fulfilling the rules of the giveaway; 5 earned merits, which I guess can't prevent cheating. Wouldn't it be better if we had him in the list as well. Either way, you can't prevent cheating through requiring 5 earned merit. Anyway, this is a great learning thread for me. Thank you for the unique giveaway. Otherwise, I wouldn't learn things discussed here. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: SFR10 on December 11, 2019, 02:44:29 AM I'm also a little bit disappointed about the low participation, I did the same sort of giveaway in the German section (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5204000.0) and had a few more users willing to join (the list is a little bit misleading, users were allowed to choose 2 numbers) Correct me if I'm wrong [I do not understand the language], but I think "no merits requirements" on the other thread might've been the main reason instead:- Um Schummeleien einzugrenzen, muss euer Account signifikant aktiv gewesen sein, ich reserviere mir das Recht, neue oder verdächtige Accounts ohne Begründung abzulehnen. Quote from: Google translate - To limit cheating, your account must have been significantly active, I reserve the right to reject new or suspicious accounts without justification. Perhaps you should reconsider that rule [merit requirements] for your next giveaway [if there will be any] and only allow users up to member rank to join in. I can move it to Bounties (Altcoins) and see what's happening. :D :D :D ;)(People trying to apply with Twitter and Facebook profile links :D) Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: GazetaBitcoin on December 11, 2019, 06:46:59 AM See Q4 -Quarter 4 speculation thread, where will 2019 end, join the LIST (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.0)! I might have been 175% more optimistic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52631776#msg52631776) than the current price. Hehe it seems I missed that! But it's fun to see such topics here :) Maybe I'll catch another one. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 11, 2019, 11:47:38 PM @1miau Yeah, he didn't meet the 5 earned Merit criteria but I'm always open for discussions to avoid unfair rules. He doesn't seem like an abuser so I'll add a poll if we should include him or not. safari88 has been excluded from the list for not fulfilling the rules of the giveaway; 5 earned merits, which I guess can't prevent cheating. Wouldn't it be better if we had him in the list as well. Either way, you can't prevent cheating through requiring 5 earned merit. It won't prevent cheating completely but exclude ~99% of farmed / bought / hacked accounts. We had a time before 1 Merit was required for Jr. Member and for my impression most shitposters shifted to the strategie to farm dozens of those Jr. Members before the new rule was introduced. In addition, there are still masses of untagged Newbies used for bumping services et al. and I don't want to get into trouble when such people get to know about this giveaway. Fixed rules avoid most problems. Poll added: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205895.0 (Poll will run 7 days until December 18, 2019, 11:59:59 PM) I'm also a little bit disappointed about the low participation, I did the same sort of giveaway in the German section (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5204000.0) and had a few more users willing to join (the list is a little bit misleading, users were allowed to choose 2 numbers) Correct me if I'm wrong [I do not understand the language], but I think "no merits requirements" on the other thread might've been the main reason instead:- Um Schummeleien einzugrenzen, muss euer Account signifikant aktiv gewesen sein, ich reserviere mir das Recht, neue oder verdächtige Accounts ohne Begründung abzulehnen. Quote from: Google translate - To limit cheating, your account must have been significantly active, I reserve the right to reject new or suspicious accounts without justification. Perhaps you should reconsider that rule [merit requirements] for your next giveaway [if there will be any] and only allow users up to member rank to join in. Of course, I'm always considering adjustments to accept as many users as possible. It's quite difficult to find a good solution for the users and to prevent cheating. In our local board cheating isn't an issue, we have rarely few translation spammers but as they don't understand German, they don't enter my giveaway and I reviewed possible abusers manually. :PI wasn't sure if that approach would work also for international giveaways and didn't want to take a risk, so I decided to set a criteria of at least 5 earned Merit. 5 earned Merit is still low, similar giveaways have mostly 10 Merit: -to participate you must HAVE 10 MERIT and at least 50 ACTIVITY (Don't know if only earned Merit or not)- 1 Account pro Person, der Account muss mindestens 10 Merits verdient haben. Habt ihr die Merits nicht, dann könnt ihr alternativ auch gerne 0,002 BTC in den Pool beisteuern! (German version of Q4 prediction: 1 account per user, you need to have at least 10 earned Merit. If you don't have 10 earned Merit, you can participate if you donate at least 0,002 BTC to the prize pool)But your suggestion "at least Member or above" could also be a fair solution. Perhaps you should reconsider that rule [merit requirements] for your next giveaway [if there will be any] and only allow users up to member rank to join in. I hope so. ;)Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: LoyceV on December 12, 2019, 08:18:39 AM Yeah, he didn't meet the 5 earned Merit criteria but I'm always open for discussions to avoid unfair rules. He doesn't seem like an abuser so I'll add a poll if we should include him or not. I voted No. Changing the rules after the start of the game can only lead to drama if it leads to someone else being the winner.Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: SFR10 on December 12, 2019, 08:25:58 AM -to participate you must HAVE 10 MERIT and at least 50 ACTIVITY 5 earned Merit is still low, similar giveaways have mostly 10 Merit: Indeed [for us it's quite low but for lower-ranked members, might be a different story].
and I reviewed possible abusers manually. Perhaps this might be the better solution [regardless of it being a bit subjective]...I wasn't sure if that approach would work also for international giveaways and didn't want to take a risk, so I decided to set a criteria of at least 5 earned Merit. It will :)But your suggestion "at least Member or above" could also be a fair solution. Actually, it's the other way around ;DI'll add a poll if we should include him or not. I'm with LoyceV on this one. A change in rule/s should only apply to succeeding rounds.Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: hosseinimr93 on December 12, 2019, 11:08:56 PM Latest projection: 607,431 (current block) + (22*144) = 610,599 So I need about a day of blockchain rewind due to a 51% attack to win. Or a large enough drop in Bitcoin price to make 5% of all miners pull the plug. I happily accept defeat over of those 2 scenarios :)First block of December 13 (at CET) (https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/607846) was just mined. The number was 607846. The difference between first block of December 13 and first block of December 10 was 415. So, in these three days, 138.3 blocks has been mined per day on average. If blocks are mined at a same rate in next 19 days: First block of 2020= 607431+(22*138.3)= 610474 This block number will make you win the competition. So you don't need a 51% attack. ;) Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: RapTarX on December 13, 2019, 04:29:26 AM I voted No. Changing the rules after the start of the game can only lead to drama if it leads to someone else being the winner. Never thought in that way. You are correct LoyceV.If blocks are mined at a same rate in next 19 days: I guess it's not going to be same for the next 19 days. On every 2016 blocks, we will have adjustment for maintaining the average time of 10 minutes for blocks.First block of 2020= 607431+(22*138.3)= 610474 19*138= 2622 blocks, we will see 1/2 adjustment within these days & it's very possible to be higher than the block you calculated. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: LoyceV on December 13, 2019, 01:04:42 PM LoyceV, you have a big chance to win the competition. Less blocks per day was the scenario on which my prediction was based:~snip~ This block number will make you win the competition. So you don't need a 51% attack. ;) So it could be the hashrate dropped in the past month (due to the price drop), and if that's the case, the hashrate has to continue dropping for my prediction to become true. Unfortunately, Bitcoin's price has been dropping for a while now.I guess it's not going to be same for the next 19 days. On every 2016 blocks, we will have adjustment for maintaining the average time of 10 minutes for blocks. Correct. Unless the Bitcoin price keeps dropping, in which case more and more miners will stop wasting electricity, and blocks slow down further.19*138= 2622 blocks, we will see 1/2 adjustment within these days & it's very possible to be higher than the block you calculated. The moment the price goes up a lot, all miners will continue mining and find blocks faster until the next difficulty adjustment. That's the scenario I'm hoping for :) Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 14, 2019, 12:19:52 AM -to participate you must HAVE 10 MERIT and at least 50 ACTIVITY 5 earned Merit is still low, similar giveaways have mostly 10 Merit: Indeed [for us it's quite low but for lower-ranked members, might be a different story].
and I reviewed possible abusers manually. Perhaps this might be the better solution [regardless of it being a bit subjective]...Hhampuz made a giveaway last year (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5050824.0) and masses of alts applied. :-\ I wasn't sure if that approach would work also for international giveaways and didn't want to take a risk, so I decided to set a criteria of at least 5 earned Merit. It will :)But your suggestion "at least Member or above" could also be a fair solution. Actually, it's the other way around ;DBut we need at least a few participants xD The moment the price goes up a lot, all miners will continue mining and find blocks faster until the next difficulty adjustment. That's the scenario I'm hoping for :) But if that's happening, the first Block mined in 2020 will be higher than now. Best for you (and me much more since my prediction is even lower) would be a decreasing Bitcoin price, that miners will leave the network, hashrate will decrease and less blocks produced per 2016 Block interval. Current projection (every block 10 minutes): 608,000 (current block) + (18*144) = 610,592 Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: LoyceV on December 14, 2019, 07:19:50 AM The moment the price goes up a lot, all miners will continue mining and find blocks faster until the next difficulty adjustment. That's the scenario I'm hoping for :) But if that's happening, the first Block mined in 2020 will be higher than now. Best for you (and me much more since my prediction is even lower) would be a decreasing Bitcoin price, that miners will leave the network, hashrate will decrease and less blocks produced per 2016 Block interval.I'm always bullish. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: HCP on December 14, 2019, 08:17:34 AM With regards to the merit requirements... You should have just made a rule that only accounts created PRIOR to the timedate of the thread creation are eligible to enter (prevents people from spooling up new accounts to try and flood the giveaway).
Sure, someone could already have a massive amounts of alts that they're going to use to just throw in multiple guesses... but considering this was supposed to be an educational giveaway... and it was posted in B&H... limiting via merit would probably preclude a lot of "beginners". :-\ Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 15, 2019, 08:42:24 PM but considering this was supposed to be an educational giveaway... and it was posted in B&H... limiting via merit would probably preclude a lot of "beginners". :-\ I agree, the Merit requirement wasn't the best to support Newbies participating here and for the next time I'll see how I can improve it. I'm in doubt that a general "everyone can participate here" will work. I've seen so many giveaways failing because cheaters destroyed them. It's extremely difficult to spot if users are alts when they have not many posts. However, I'll try to find a creative way how we can make fairer rules next time. :) I'm always bullish. We know ;)18,700 LoyceV !!! Q3 game is life, Quarter 3 prediction game !!! (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5160304.0) 19,849 LoyceV Q4 -Quarter 4 speculation thread, where will 2019 end, join the LIST (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.0) 30645 LoyceV NEW BAKKT game (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5083242.0) Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: hosseinimr93 on December 15, 2019, 10:00:23 PM I agree, the Merit requirement wasn't the best to support Newbies participating here and for the next time I'll see how I can improve it. I'm in doubt that a general "everyone can participate here" will work. I've seen so many giveaways failing because cheaters destroyed them. It's extremely difficult to spot if users are alts when they have not many posts. However, I'll try to find a creative way how we can make fairer rules next time. :) Requiring participants to have certain number of merits was the best thing you could do and you did it. There should be a requirement, a minimum post count, a minimum activity or minimum merits. I think minimum merits is the best option and I personally cannot find a better solution. As you said, there are some competitions in "games and round" board. Some owners don't bother themselves to make a rule. Some of them say that using multiple accounts are not allowed, but actually they do nothing to fight multiple accounts. Most of those competitions are due to promotion and advertising purposes and owners don't have any issue with multiple accounts. Because multiple accounts help their thread be more active and this is exactly what they want. But your giveaway is different from them. You are paying the reward with your own money, want to have a fair competition and have to make a rule to avoid cheaters. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Last of the V8s on December 21, 2019, 06:23:55 PM Is it me or are the blocks belting along now?
Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: mikeywith on December 21, 2019, 10:50:28 PM Is it me or are the blocks belting along now? Quote Latest Block: 609188 (4 minutes ago) https://diff.cryptothis.com/Current Pace: 113.6985% (357 / 313.99 expected, 43.01 ahead) Current Difficulty: 12948593420946.38XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Next Difficulty: between 13480561975671 and 14751956070301 Next Difficulty Change: between +4.1083% and +13.9271% I was late on payment for December pre-orders from Bitmain, and my shipment should arrive in 3-5 days, since these orders are shipped based on a first-come-first-serve basis, it means many people have already received their new toys and they are now crunching these blocks in no time. Mind you that Bitmain is not the only company doing so, Whatsminer has a dozen of pre-orders that are supposed to arrive soon as well. Sadly all of this is probably not going to make you or myself win (both our predictions are a bit far-fetched), I expected the gears to come online a lot sooner which was not the case (i underestimated the time it takes from shipping the gears out till they actually come online). I now think one of these guys will win Code: 610,538 HCP Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 22, 2019, 01:22:52 AM Requiring participants to have certain number of merits was the best thing you could do and you did it. There should be a requirement, a minimum post count, a minimum activity or minimum merits. I think minimum merits is the best option and I personally cannot find a better solution. Well said and not only my money since Royse777 added some BTC to the pool. As you said, there are some competitions in "games and round" board. Some owners don't bother themselves to make a rule. Some of them say that using multiple accounts are not allowed, but actually they do nothing to fight multiple accounts. Most of those competitions are due to promotion and advertising purposes and owners don't have any issue with multiple accounts. Because multiple accounts help their thread be more active and this is exactly what they want. But your giveaway is different from them. You are paying the reward with your own money, want to have a fair competition and have to make a rule to avoid cheaters. Code: 610,538 HCP Latest projection: 609,200 (current block) + (10*144) = 610,640 If blocks are confirming faster from now on, we'll see more blocks mined until 2020 of course. The trend is clearly pointing towards somewhere around 610,700, assuming that BTC won't drop: New projection: 37,225 Minutes / 10 Blocks + 606,852 (current Block) = 610,574 Latest projection: 607,431 (current block) + (22*144) = 610,599 Current projection (every block 10 minutes): 608,000 (current block) + (18*144) = 610,592 But nobody knows what BTC price is doing. A new dump could happen at any time. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: GazetaBitcoin on December 22, 2019, 03:56:47 PM I'm confident I'll win this contest :)
Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: RapTarX on December 22, 2019, 04:21:38 PM I'm confident I'll win this contest :) Current block is 609315We are ~13364 minutes away to the CET time of reaching 2020. According to the average block time, we will have ~1336 more blocks which will be resulted to the first block of 2020 as 610651. In that case hosseinimr93 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205895.msg53295774#msg53295774) will win the 1st prize & DdmrDdmr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205895.msg53251465#msg53251465) will get the 2nd prize, you are far away from the list. I guess you will only get if number of miners get reduced; if the price fall significantly. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: LoyceV on December 22, 2019, 04:37:21 PM Current block is 609315 So basically, if we skip December 31, I win :DWe are ~13364 minutes away to the CET time of reaching 2020. According to the average block time, we will have ~1336 more blocks which will be resulted to the first block of 2020 as 610651. In that case hosseinimr93 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205895.msg53295774#msg53295774) will win the 1st prize & DdmrDdmr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205895.msg53251465#msg53251465) will get the 2nd prize Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: RapTarX on December 22, 2019, 04:42:16 PM So basically, if we skip December 31, I win :D We have a record of skipping December 30th (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_in_Samoa) :D Therefore, it's possible.Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: hosseinimr93 on December 28, 2019, 03:28:19 PM 4770 minutes left until 2020 starts (at CET) . The current block number 610169.
Assuming every block is mined in 10 minutes, 477 blocks are going to be mined. So, estimated number of first block of 2020 is 610646 I am going to win the contest. ;D Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: RapTarX on December 28, 2019, 05:55:11 PM . I'm 33 blocks behind as per my calculation. Unless BTC get pumped to $8000, I don't have the chance to win anymore I guess & so do the others who predicted below 610550. You have a chance there though. By the way, the average time per block since then is ~10 minutes & 4/5 seconds which is a bit higher than the average.So, estimated number of first block of 2020 is 610646 I am going to win the contest. ;D Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: hosseinimr93 on December 28, 2019, 06:21:49 PM . I'm 33 blocks behind as per my calculation. Unless BTC get pumped to $8000, I don't have the chance to win anymore I guess & so do the others who predicted below 610550. You have a chance there though. By the way, the average time per block since then is ~10 minutes & 4/5 seconds which is a bit higher than the average.So, estimated number of first block of 2020 is 610646 I am going to win the contest. ;D If BTC is pumped to 8000 dollar, we will have more miners and faster transactions. This will cause your chance to be even lower. You are right about the average time. If blocks are mined at such a rate, nelson4lov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=919511) has the biggest chance to win the contest. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: pooya87 on December 29, 2019, 05:46:35 AM ~ I'm 33 blocks behind as per my calculation. Unless BTC get pumped to $8000, I don't have the chance to win anymore I guess & so do the others who predicted below 610550. You have a chance there though. By the way, the average time per block since then is ~10 minutes & 4/5 seconds which is a bit higher than the average. even if price goes up 10% (to $8000+) it still takes time for miners with offline mining equipment to see the additional possible profit and for new hashrate to enter the mining space to lead to any kind of faster blocks. not to mention that such a small price rise could only lead to a tiny hashrate rise and such rises won't affect the time between blocks really. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: UserU on December 29, 2019, 10:55:51 AM Now at 610,299, guess that I'll be the first to lose 😂
Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on December 29, 2019, 09:02:43 PM Now at 610,299, guess that I'll be the first to lose 😂 It's already over for you, we are @ 610,360 now. :-\And for me very soon, too. Still more than 2 days to go... Poll (https://i.imgur.com/V224LDd.jpg) is closed now. You are right about the average time. If blocks are mined at such a rate, nelson4lov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=919511) has the biggest chance to win the contest. My bet goes to610,720 crwth or 610,770 GazetaBitcoin While the hashpower is quite high right now we won't see a big change until the next difficulty adjustment. So at least until then, miners will confirm blocks faster (according to BTC.com (https://btc.com/stats/diff) 4.50% right now). Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: crwth on December 30, 2019, 04:55:56 AM My bet goes to A few more days left and I don't feel the luck in me right now. Hopefully, the computation I had is somewhat close to what it could be. Only if it's that simple. :D 610,720 crwth or 610,770 GazetaBitcoin Any more donations to add to the prize? :D While the hashpower is quite high right now we won't see a big change until the next difficulty adjustment. So at least until then, miners will confirm blocks faster (according to BTC.com (https://btc.com/stats/diff) 4.50% right now). I don't see significant changes when it comes to the hash power unless something happens. We will see. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: GazetaBitcoin on December 30, 2019, 07:40:30 AM Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: UserU on December 30, 2019, 09:05:22 AM It's already over for you, we are @ 610,360 now. :-\ And for me very soon, too. If only there was some consolation prize for early guessers 😂 Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: HCP on December 30, 2019, 07:28:15 PM Seems I'm going to get rekt...
Guess: 610,538 HCP Current Blockheight: 610518 Time to go: 27.5 hrs unless something truly terrible happens and we get 1 hour+ block times for the next 24 hrs! :o :o :o :P Apparently, the average blocktime has been somewhat less than 10 mins over the last month... resulting in my very basic math failing. No surprises there then I guess ;) Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Last of the V8s on December 30, 2019, 07:40:22 PM Fire up the block eruptors!
Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: mikeywith on December 31, 2019, 06:57:44 PM Seems I'm going to get rekt... Opps ! ;D One of the following two entries have 99% chance of winning Code: 610,668 nelson4lov First block in 2020 CET time will most likely be 610685. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Last of the V8s on December 31, 2019, 07:17:19 PM Ah well, it's been an honour to play with you gentleman; thank you so much and Happy New Year.
Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: mikeywith on December 31, 2019, 07:31:47 PM Ah well, it's been an honour to play with you gentleman; thank you so much and Happy New Year. We did better than the majority anyway, we are just a few blocks away and technically we are the last to lose ;D. Happy new year, and miau , thank you for this fun game. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: GazetaBitcoin on December 31, 2019, 08:01:44 PM Happy new year! It's been a pleasure to play as well! :) Thank you 1miau!
Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: hosseinimr93 on December 31, 2019, 11:41:59 PM The first block mined in 2020 (at CET) was block number 610682 (https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/610682).
So, nelson4lov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=919511) and Phil_S (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=963784) win first place and second place of the contest respectively. Congratulations to both of you, nelson4lov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=919511) and Phil_S (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=963784). Happy new year to everyone and thanks 1miau (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2143453) for the contest. Wish all of you a year full of happiness. Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: nelson4lov on January 01, 2020, 08:49:46 AM The first block mined in 2020 (at CET) was block number 610682 (https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/610682). So, nelson4lov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=919511) and Phil_S (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=963784) win first place and second place of the contest respectively. Congratulations to both of you, nelson4lov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=919511) and Phil_S (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=963784). Happy new year to everyone and thanks 1miau (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2143453) for the contest. Wish all of you a year full of happiness. Perfect way to start the year 🔥. A big thank you to 1miau (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2143453) for putting up a contest like this. Happy new year Everyone. Here's to making everyday in 2020 count 🥂 Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: AB de Royse777 on January 01, 2020, 11:24:27 AM So I was basically 142 blocks faster than bitcoin block. It's another proof of bitcoin network being slow (/s). Craig W and Ver must be very pleased with this coz they will take this chance and will start pitching their shitcoins (Suckers!) :-P
Anyway, jokes aside. Happy New year and congrats to the Winners! @1miau, once you will have both addresses then can you please PM the addresses so that I can send the funds that I promised. By the way, it was a very good educational idea and I hope we will see more creative initiative like this in future. Good job! Cheers, Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: hosseinimr93 on January 01, 2020, 01:17:03 PM So I was basically 142 blocks faster than bitcoin block. The first block of 2020 was block number 610,682 while your prediction was 610,540.It means that bitcoin network is even faster than what you expected to be. Now, Craig and Ver are probably ashamed of themselves. ;D ;) Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: AB de Royse777 on January 01, 2020, 01:37:04 PM ¬snip¬ Okay this demonstrates that I am good at math but ends up with upside down result :-PThe first block of 2020 was block number 610,682 while your prediction was 610,540. It means that bitcoin network is even faster than what you expected to be. Now, Craig and Ver are probably ashamed of themselves. ;D ;) No more party for Craig and Ver. Sorry fellas! :-D Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on January 01, 2020, 09:34:13 PM The first block mined in 2020 (at CET) was block number 610682 (https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/610682). You are right, we have a final result: So, nelson4lov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=919511) and Phil_S (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=963784) win first place and second place of the contest respectively. Congratulations to both of you, nelson4lov (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=919511) and Phil_S (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=963784). Happy new year to everyone and thanks 1miau (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2143453) for the contest. Wish all of you a year full of happiness.
We have 2 winners: 1st place: nelson4lov 2nd place: Phil_S So, please send your address here or in PM to receive your valuable BTC. :) It was a pleasure for me to arrange this giveaway and I want to thank everyone who gave insights how your prediction was calculated. Many thanks also to Royse777 for your contribution to the prize pool (and to show that party is over for Faketoshi & Co). So I was basically 142 blocks slower than bitcoin block. It's another proof of bitcoin network being fast :). Craig W and Ver must be very rekt from this coz they will have no chance to shill their shitcoins (Suckers!) :-P edited by me :)By the way, it was a very good educational idea and I hope we will see more creative initiative like this in future. Good job! I hope so. :)And a successful 2020 to everyone! Title: Re: [CFNP] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Upgrade00 on January 01, 2020, 09:56:02 PM Congratulations to the winners and great initiative by @1miau, also very professionally executed. I hope we can do (something like) this again soon.
Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: crwth on January 02, 2020, 12:45:50 AM Not bad! I didn't expect being placed in third, and it was a learning experience for me though. I should've included the variable changes in the hash rate, making it averaged differently for on different days and maybe averaging the average. Lol. Anyways, thanks for this opportunity, @1miau. Just like what Upgrade00 said, hoping for another event like this. Happy 2020!
Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: AB de Royse777 on January 02, 2020, 07:48:09 AM I believe I paid nelson4lov just few minutes ago, now waiting for Phil_S's address to send his share.
¬snip¬ For any creative idea, you will find me always in your side with some donations if necessary. Feel free if you even need to discuss anything in PM about anything. I am very welcoming and friendly next door neighbor :-DI hope so. :) ¬snip¬ Well done on editing :-P(and to show that party is over for Faketoshi & Co). So I was basically 142 blocks slower than bitcoin block. It's another proof of bitcoin network being fast :). Craig W and Ver must be very rekt from this coz they will have no chance to shill their shitcoins (Suckers!) :-P edited by me :)I hope Ver and Craig do not come up with new trolling idea in this year and let us live in peace. Happy new year again to everyone. Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: nelson4lov on January 02, 2020, 08:07:09 AM <snip> I believe I paid nelson4lov just few minutes ago I want to confirm that I have received my prize from. Both 1miau and Royse Once again, I want to thank both of you for the opportunity. I learnt something new during the contest. Thanks a lot. Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on January 02, 2020, 11:25:40 PM For any creative idea, you will find me always in your side with some donations if necessary. Feel free if you even need to discuss anything in PM about anything. I am very welcoming and friendly next door neighbor :-D Much appreciated. =)I'm always open to new ideas like micgoossens did in his recent discussion about his giveaway standards (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5213423.0). :) Regarding Phil_S: if he doesn't respond here this weekend I'll just shoot him a PM. I want to confirm that I have received my prize from. Both 1miau and Royse Nice! I hope you'll use it wisely (HODL) ;) And for everyone else: I've added a new poll if there's demand for a second round. Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: GazetaBitcoin on January 03, 2020, 07:36:00 AM 1miau, that would be great! What do you have in mind now?
I'm sure many other will want a new contest :) Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: UserU on January 03, 2020, 09:20:02 AM 1miau, that would be great! What do you have in mind now? I'm sure many other will want a new contest :) You bet, I've yet to win a single one :c Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: Phil_S on January 04, 2020, 03:12:39 PM I'm here!
Thanks 1miau! Will send you a PM a bit later. Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on January 04, 2020, 06:47:05 PM 1miau, that would be great! What do you have in mind now? I'll announce it in around 1 or 2 weeks, so stay tuned. Or how shitcoins would say: soon. :DWill send you a PM a bit later. Payment sent (2.5mBTC) and replied in PM. I've also included Royse777. Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: AB de Royse777 on January 05, 2020, 08:31:33 AM ¬snip¬ I have done my part too and with this I guess we are done with this game?I've also included Royse777. It was nice to be a part of this giveaway. See you all until the next one (if there is any of course). Thanks 1miau and everyone else. Big congratulations to the winners too. Cheers, Edit: And finally my vote: https://i.imgur.com/8DvIBk3.png Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: UmerIdrees on January 05, 2020, 10:12:18 AM 1miau, that would be great! What do you have in mind now? I'll announce it in around 1 or 2 weeks, so stay tuned. Or how shitcoins would say: soon. :Di have missed this giveaway but i will definitely wait and join the another one which you will start. Vote no. 10 goes in from my side as giveaways are great. :) https://i.imgur.com/ULNLe3c.png Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on January 05, 2020, 08:23:23 PM ¬snip¬ I have done my part too and with this I guess we are done with this game?I've also included Royse777. First place: 6 mBTC: And many thanks for your contribution to the price pool!
Second place: 3.5 mBTC:
It was nice to be a part of this giveaway. See you all until the next one (if there is any of course). i have missed this giveaway but i will definitely wait and join the another one which you will start. Vote no. 10 goes in from my side I'll update everyone here when I'll start a new one. ;)as giveaways are great. :) Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on May 25, 2020, 10:52:52 PM I'm doing a new giveaway but it's only a simple one: 1miau 2nd anniversary giveaway [2 mBTC] (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5250616.0)
Rules (Please read! If you are caught not reading the rules, I reserve the right to reject you):
Reward: 2 mBTC How to choose a winner: Relevant are the last two numbers of the Bitcoin block hash, which will be announced before we roll, for example: I’ve announced to roll with block 603028 (https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/603028) Result: https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/00000000000000000007872abcd785f515daecfb9c1206b7ea9e87fa51b0afec Winner: 10 24 spots left, be fast! Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: RickDeckard on October 23, 2021, 08:24:17 PM Sorry for this slight "Frankenstein" revival but I've got to say that this was an incredible idea for a contest. I'm not even talking about the prize money, I'm more talking about the idea - one really needs to understand how mining works in order to give an assertive / sustained guess - and the whole community reaction that was driven to it and how helpful the posts ended up being (particularly the ones that explained why they thought that X block will be mined.). It was also really awesome seeing the last threads where users were carefully watching blocks being mined and their guesses being somewhat ... surpassed.
Congratulations on this one 1miau! Do you plan on doing some more of these "giveaways" in the future? I've been thinking in other topics that could be covered but so far I haven't come up with anything as insightful as yours. What do you think of "increasing" the scale of another contest such this one but this time also include local boards? Title: Re: [FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC] Post by: 1miau on July 23, 2022, 06:22:59 PM Sorry for this slight "Frankenstein" revival but I've got to say that this was an incredible idea for a contest. I'm not even talking about the prize money, I'm more talking about the idea - one really needs to understand how mining works in order to give an assertive / sustained guess - and the whole community reaction that was driven to it and how helpful the posts ended up being (particularly the ones that explained why they thought that X block will be mined.). It was also really awesome seeing the last threads where users were carefully watching blocks being mined and their guesses being somewhat ... surpassed. Hi! Congratulations on this one 1miau! Do you plan on doing some more of these "giveaways" in the future? I've been thinking in other topics that could be covered but so far I haven't come up with anything as insightful as yours. What do you think of "increasing" the scale of another contest such this one but this time also include local boards? Sorry for my late reply, I didn't follow my topic here, so your very nice reply went unnoticed. :D I'm currently planning a new one, but posted on our local (German) board. That's why I came back to this topic and saw your reply. I can also launch a new giveaway here, again in Beginners and Help as it's very useful and we have some Newbies here. For new ideas, please let me know if there should be changes, how long our giveaway should be running (right now, still plenty time is left). So yes, I'm open for a new round. ;) |
