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Author Topic: Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate Bitcoin  (Read 406 times)
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December 06, 2019, 01:02:13 PM
 #21

So there we go, it's a coincidence, and even at the next cycle we can have only the minimum for the weakest of confirmations.

Don't get me wrong, I'm loving the prices and how they're playing out right now. I'm definitely in for accumulating at this range.

@1Referee yeah I'm kind of a sucker for 200MA too -- I actually don't pay attention to it much but every time I do attempt to store more BTC, I refer to it off hand and it's nice to see when you're buying close or even below it.

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December 06, 2019, 01:54:42 PM
 #22

So there we go, it's a coincidence, and even at the next cycle we can have only the minimum for the weakest of confirmations.

Not necessarily. If the price came back down to the 4 Year MA and consildated between the 2 & 4 Year MAs for between 4-12 months then there would be a very high correlation between the 3 sets of data, ie they all would of followed the same pattern of making contact (or close enough) to the 4 Year MA, followed by months (not weeks or years) worth of consolidation between specific MAs. Obviously if the same price movement doesn't occur for the third time, you would be right, there would be a very weak confirmation indeed. One that's chronologically declining in relevance you could argue, or was barely relevant in the first place.

However, let's say this happened and the opportunity came back around in 2023, I'd be laddering in for sure, as would most long-term investors in my opinion. Likely negating a drop the 4th time down to the 4 Year MA, as the market would likely get front run by whales prior to it reaching this "golden price" due to the incredibly favorable high risk-reward ratio.

Personally I have a hunce* that we will re-test the 4 Year MA as we haven't done so for 4 years, but that we won't again reach it for another 20-40 years after that.

*Nothing more than a feeling based on no technical analysis, historic data or probability what so ever.

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December 06, 2019, 02:12:17 PM
 #23

Only time will tell of we are really in accumulate time
I already have my portfolio of cryptos, with the most part is BTC, and I'm done for now, I only gain BTC with my campaign

But particularly I think we will have lower prices than now to accumulate more BTC, it's just a prediction, I hope in a year from now we are looking today and think, WOW, 7,4K USD was very cheap  Grin Grin Grin

Yes this $7k+ level was very very cheap if you tjink that the price will be boom.inthe future but right now until I dont see anygood sign of bull run myposition was always short short. Maybe for long term holding its a good time to accumulate more if the price go down then buy it again we cannot know where is the bottom and when the time bitcoin goes up.

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December 06, 2019, 05:46:41 PM
 #24

In my opinion at 1hr chart, as long as the price remains well above $7,300 longs can be considered with first target at $7,500. A bullish break in this resistance could then target the resistance at $7,680. If there is any crossing, the next objective would be the resistance located at $7,832. However, beware of bullish excesses that could lead to a possible short-term correction; but this possible correction may not be tradeable.
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December 06, 2019, 08:02:05 PM
 #25

There is a reversal pattern in today's trend, but it needs further confirmation whether it is truly reversal or false signal.
At least until the end of December the price direction will be seen after that.

 
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December 06, 2019, 08:24:39 PM
 #26

In my opinion at 1hr chart, as long as the price remains well above $7,300 longs can be considered with first target at $7,500. A bullish break in this resistance could then target the resistance at $7,680. If there is any crossing, the next objective would be the resistance located at $7,832. However, beware of bullish excesses that could lead to a possible short-term correction; but this possible correction may not be tradeable.

It's absolutely thrilling to just watch the charts Cheesy On the brink of droping below 7k$ but then pushing up. Looks like accumulation tbh.
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December 06, 2019, 08:37:24 PM
 #27

Nice to see there are positive air in this thread. While kits good to accumulate btc by buying and selling, I don't do that in BTC pair but only on some coins I like trading specially the rare pairs like BTC/ADA or BTC/ETH because its where I can accumulate either. This is is you also believe in ADA or ETH yourself this way you won;t have regrets if which coin you have at hand while the bullrun starts.


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December 06, 2019, 09:47:45 PM
 #28

In fact, the projection doesn't respect the 2015-2017 cycle. We already dropped to the 4-year MA late last year, so immediately dropping back there again suggests something very different is happening this time.

Technically we dropped down to the 200 Week MA, but we didn't reach the 4 Year MA that was slightly lower.

Fair enough but it starts to feel like curve-fitting to focus only on the 4-year MA. I think retreating to the 200-week MA again would make the same point.

Arguably we haven't made contact during this current cycle, even if it was close enough that it might as well of been considered support.

Yes, I'm of the school of thought that says price never needs to touch a specific level for the associated support to come in. Markets often overshoot or undershoot specific S/R.

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December 08, 2019, 05:38:19 PM
 #29

In fact, the projection doesn't respect the 2015-2017 cycle. We already dropped to the 4-year MA late last year, so immediately dropping back there again suggests something very different is happening this time.

Technically we dropped down to the 200 Week MA, but we didn't reach the 4 Year MA that was slightly lower.

Fair enough but it starts to feel like curve-fitting to focus only on the 4-year MA. I think retreating to the 200-week MA again would make the same point.

Again, I agree, as it would be "close enough" to the 4 Year MA and another example whales front running the market. Arguably as we already had, with a lack of wick below the 200 Week MA last year. Whether you want to see it as the 200 Week (1400 Days) or 4 Year MA (1460 Days) isn't relevant in this case, there's only a couple of months between these long-term MAs. Similarly with the 100 Week (700 Days) or 2 Year MA (730 Days). The Point is not about differentiating between these, but looking at things from a different perspective.
People care more about the time-frame of years, than they do 100 or 200 weeks in my opinion. Hence using these MAs on a daily chart, as oppose to usual on the Weekly.
Hope that explains the irrelevant distinction.

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December 14, 2019, 11:05:59 AM
 #30

Here's a quick update, as this was on the Daily chart with an extrapolated imminent fractal that hasn't so far been playing out... so here's my thoughts.

Something different is happening. We haven't continued to capitulated since breaking the 2 Year MA, as we did twice before within a week. Instead we've spent 2 weeks underneath this level without further downside.

Is this bullish? Arguably yes, however the bullish scenario here was the anticipation of a dip buying scenario and history repeating itself for the third time. Without history repeating itself, it throws this fractal out the window effectively.



Still awaiting for further downside for the bullish scenario dip buying scenario to remain in tact.

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December 15, 2019, 03:53:17 PM
 #31

It’s always time to accumulate crypto my friend.

Buy MOAR !!!!

True story, but usually in bear markets I prefer to accumulate Satoshis by shorting obvious patterns, as it's much more profitable for stacking sats, and Bitcoin's price movements are so predictable and repetitive it's embarrassing Tongue For reference sake, this is my first long call this year, even if I'm still in a short Grin

You're not all alone being short by now mate, also me and other traders find it so hard to sustain with our holdings. It feels like kinda boring and hopeless, but I do stick with my principles and never lose grip on it. Right now, even how embarrassing it was I would still have to be strong and hopeful that this struggles will end someday and brings us fortunate days.

It is normal to feel that way especially that it been quite a while already and the expected bull run didn’t come yet and the price right now is very low but I know bitcoin will really bounce back and we will be able to experience the bull run we just have to be more patient with our holdings and try to maximize your profits in every situation.
Bitcoin was able to bounce back before after a massive dump so we will have a repeat of that just have faith in bitcoin.

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December 24, 2019, 08:12:57 PM
 #32

2 Year MA confirmed as resistance with third rejection:



So there we go, it's a coincidence

Note how this MA was sloping upwards when bullish, and now has rolled over and sloping downwards becoming bearish. Long-term MAs don't lie, even if they are lagging.
It should go without saying that getting back above this MA, and turning it into support, would signal the end of the accumulation zone.

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December 25, 2019, 04:48:24 AM
 #33

Anyone reason why you chose to use the 2 year and 4 year MA instead of the 200 weekly moving average that most people are plotting on the BLX index. Basically it has held everytime and got us out of the bear market back in December 2018.

This index is currently sitting at $5063 and it increases about $30 every week and it actually should provide very good support. And depending when BTC will break the $6400 area and head into the low $5K's then it might affect the WMA because it might be at $5300 in 10 weeks time and $5600 in 20 weeks time so we will see how it plays out.

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December 25, 2019, 12:07:22 PM
Last edit: December 25, 2019, 12:20:22 PM by dragonvslinux
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #34

Anyone reason why you chose to use the 2 year and 4 year MA instead of the 200 weekly moving average that most people are plotting on the BLX index. Basically it has held everytime and got us out of the bear market back in December 2018.

Whether you want to see it as the 200 Week (1400 Days) or 4 Year MA (1460 Days) isn't relevant in this case, there's only a couple of months between these long-term MAs. The Point is not about differentiating between these, but looking at things from a different perspective.

On reflection, the 100 & 200 Week MAs are what traders use, the yearly MAs are physiologically more relevant to long-term investors and therefore accumulation periods.

Similarly with the 100 Week (700 Days) or 2 Year MA (730 Days).

From the following screenshot, I think you'll agree that the 730 MA has been a lot quicker and more accurate in identifying resistance than the 700 MA (old support):



Just noticed as well that these MAs even crossed at the end of October when price was around $9,500 which appears relevant. Notice how the 700 MA was acting as support, but now it's the 730 MA is acting as resistance (after the bear cross; a longer-term MA moving below a shorter-term MA):



Also, potentially relevant to the 4 Year MA (in comparison to the 200 Week MA):

Technically we dropped down to the 200 Week MA, but we didn't reach the 4 Year MA that was slightly lower. Arguably we haven't made contact during this current cycle, even if it was close enough that it might as well of been considered support. Unlike in 2015 when price found support after twice wicking below it.

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December 25, 2019, 04:12:33 PM
 #35

I wouldn't really follow the 2 year MA so much because according to the charts above and your predictions we were bearish below it and bullish above it. The line is at 7500, so just a few days ago we were above which would signal a bullish reversal (we spent 2 days above 7500, almost reaching 7700). And now we are again below it. So an investor using the 2 year ma as his indicator of bullishness would go in on December 23 and almost instantly lose 5%.
Don't get me wrong, I'm buying now, but 2y MA is not the best way to identify bullish breakouts.
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December 25, 2019, 04:47:36 PM
Merited by LeGaulois (1)
 #36

I wouldn't really follow the 2 year MA so much because according to the charts above and your predictions we were bearish below it and bullish above it. The line is at 7500, so just a few days ago we were above which would signal a bullish reversal (we spent 2 days above 7500, almost reaching 7700). And now we are again below it. So an investor using the 2 year ma as his indicator of bullishness would go in on December 23 and almost instantly lose 5%.
Don't get me wrong, I'm buying now, but 2y MA is not the best way to identify bullish breakouts.

To be fair, that's not traditionally how you trade MAs. You would wait for confirmation of a close above the MA, maybe even consildation above it turning it into support, possibly even continuation as well; a move above the previous swing high. To me, this MA hasn't given you a buy signal since acting as resistance, it has told you to stay out of any momentum based trade on a Daily time-frame as it failed to close above this level on three occasions now. If anything, it's telling you there is a confirmed pattern and to take the opportunity to short when/if price reaches it again, especially now it is sloping downwards, implying a bearish posture and two-year price action.

Interpret the MAs how you please however, that's what they are there for.

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December 27, 2019, 04:36:03 PM
 #37

That’s a good advice. I am accumulating bitcoin from different source (one is bitcointalk bounty campaign). Just get bitcoin as much as you can and secure them in wallet and forget them. Dont look at bitcoin price on daily basis. Return when crypto market is up with liquidity.

 
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December 27, 2019, 04:51:20 PM
 #38

That’s a good advice. I am accumulating bitcoin from different source (one is bitcointalk bounty campaign). Just get bitcoin as much as you can and secure them in wallet and forget them. Dont look at bitcoin price on daily basis. Return when crypto market is up with liquidity.

Sometimes people who want bitcoin do tend to get too caught up in attempting to acquire bitcoin for free, and then they end up hardly accumulating any bitcoin.  I have witnessed that over and over and over.

Sometimes, it can be good to get a high paying job in fiat (if you can) and then just buy bitcoin with a reasonable percentage of your income on an ongoing basis.

Of course, in this thread, there is an attempt to try to time the accumulation, so presumably when in an accumulation zone, any bitcoin HODLer wannabe would attempt to accumulate more BTC during accumulation phases - yet with bitcoin, historically, we have witnessed that all times have been good to accumulate bitcoin, so long as the timeline of the accumulator is at least 3.5 years.  Surely historical performance does not guarantee future results, but it still seems that in bitcoin, if your timeline is long enough then anyone aspiring to acquire a reasonably prudent stake in bitcoin, whether that is 1% of your investible assets 10% or some other reasonably prudent amount that is tailored to your own situation, then you would be wanting to accumulate by any means necessary and not necessarily getting caught up in possible scammy shit like bounty campaigns... and even if they are not exactly scammy, they might be way too little of a way of accumulating BTC as compared to figuring out more lucrative ways... like I mentioned if it is possible for any BTC accumulator wannabe to earn decent amounts of fiat and then to buy BTC to get a decent stake in the game.. because sometimes there is no turning back.. if king daddy decides to have a bit of an exponential and unexpected growth spurt (surly nice to be "in" during those kinds of times).

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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December 28, 2019, 08:44:56 PM
 #39


Bitcoin has now entered the accumulation phase between the 2 & 4 Year MA's, represented by the 730 & 1460 MA's. As highlighted in green, this investment strategy has historically been the best tie to accumulate BTC for the long-term 4-year cycle, for 2014/2015, as well as 2018/2019.

The forecasted extrapolation is merely an example of where the price may consolidate in the coming months, but is far from a price target. The reference here is the accumulation phase is currently between $4650 and $7750, which may last only a matter of weeks, but historically lasts for a considerable amount of time, such as in 2014-2015 where there was an 11-month period of price consolidation and therefore accumulation.

Time to BTFD.

2 Year MA confirmed as resistance with third rejection (24/12/19):


Related bearish analysis confirming lower lows to come:
Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?, November 2018
Bitcoin Is Repeating History? TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns, September-October 2019


To me and my opinion, I think that this chat shows consolidation and consolidation can either go any direction afterwards. But I would consider a bull more because of the halving that we are expecting in 2020 and again, price is yet to get another ATH.

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December 29, 2019, 12:18:28 AM
 #40

Wouldn't be far from reality.

I do think that we're entering another phase of accumulation at the moment, and this time round do expect institutions to pile up their coins as well. Right now the strategy to go to is dollar cost averaging in my opinion, because that gives you the most chance of making a profit in the long run while eliminating the risks of buying too much at too high a price in the short term.

So yes, if you still have fiat cash, this is certainly a time to enter the market with the halving coming up.

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