Can one have any expertise in Speculating?

[Pipdips]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

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[figmentofmyass]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

in my observation, natural born speculators have an intuitive sense about market psychology and sentiment. they are generally contrarians---they must be, since the crowd is usually wrong. i definitely improved as a trader when i learned to play against my own fearful/greedy tendencies, and against the prevailing market sentiment. (ie "buy when there is blood in the streets)

in that sense, you could certainly use other peoples' speculations to your advantage, by observing sentiment and playing the contrarian when bullish/bearish sentiment becomes extreme.

[harizen]

With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

Do you mean speculating bitcoin prices in the future without the involvement of technical analysis? If that's the case it will be purely based on "instinct".

Well, they can do what they want. No matter how realistic or unrealistic those things that will come up as a product on their mind, still, it's up for the people if they will buy those speculations or predictions made by them.

About becoming better to others by using only "instincts" as a reference, well if they were able to hit some of their speculations, that's it. It doesn't mean they are far better from those who made good analyzations. If relying on their own instincts yielding them good results as they progress, then it's fine to depend on those on their future strategy.

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating.

That's why they called "speculators".

[dunfida]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

Theres no such thing about expertise yet everyone can speculate on their own.The difference here is basing if said speculations is backed by something like technicals&fundamentals compared to
speculations that are purely based on intuition or instinct.

As a reader/investor/trader you would see these speculations either realistic or unrealistic one basing on your experience throughout the market.

[Questat]

The biggest number of speculators are here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.0

We can become expert defending on our skills and and the effort we put in crypto.
This market is volatile and very unpredictable but its not impossible to make right judgment as long as you accept that you are really into crypto no matter how big the challenges are.

You will make mistake, learn from it, just always learn and before you know it, you have already improve being a good speculator.

[gentlemand]

Speculating with little to no interest in everything that makes up the underlying thing you're speculating in sounds like a recipe for a bit of a balls up eventually. I'd rather build a deep seated and widespread basis to speculate from.

in my observation, natural born speculators have an intuitive sense about market psychology and sentiment. they are generally contrarians---they must be, since the crowd is usually wrong. i definitely improved as a trader when i learned to play against my own fearful/greedy tendencies, and against the prevailing market sentiment. (ie "buy when there is blood in the streets)

Very much this. You'd be vastly better off devoting your time to learning and mastering your own psychology. That counts for far more than most of the empty guff that happens here.

[samcrypto]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

There are some good speculators and feeling pro speculators, you can learn from them but don’t depend on that. Good speculation always come with a good reason and analysis, for me its a must to know on how to speculate and read charts, because by that strategy you can know when you will buy or when you will cut your losses. Keep on learning, and in the future you will have the best skills to help you earn profit.

[pooya87]

is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

no, i don't think you can gain any actual "expertise" by only reading all speculations. not to mention that you would be wasting your time since more than half (if not 90%) of the bitcoin price related speculation you see on the internet is pure nonsense written by newbies who either have no idea how the bitcoin market works or they have some agenda behind what they publish like wanting to fill their shorts or spreading FUD in general!
in my opinion the only way to gain any real experience when it comes to speculation is if you start analyzing the market yourself. and only spend a little time reading what other people say.

[samuraijin]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

You need to take a lot of time to learn like that, but usually people who do speculation from their experience as a trader, if there is speculation but he is not an active trader they are people who only make FUD, you can try it but I guess that won't benefit you

[Wexnident]

Well, could be. If they could actually determine how the speculator did his speculating, it is quite possible. But in the end, it would actually be quite difficult since a bit of speculation comes from the thinking process of the person himself. I'd rather let myself study from what I think should be studied instead tbh.

[Free1bitco.in]

IMO, a speculator sometimes speculates based on what they think. it's all not only from the news they read but also matches the logic that occurs from the achievement of previous prices. because of this, many people are speculating by comparing existing charts. even if they don't have a strong foundation, one can speculate based on their thoughts.

[vintages]

It is very possible. A lot of good cryptocurrency speculators are good at it because they have come to master it and be good in it. But they can give exact theory or price, instead they will be closer to it.
If you are asking if one can take a course on it and have it as a certificate, then I can say it's somewhat not necessary. Nobody cares about the certificate you have in it but how true you are to your speculation.

[Webberson]

Speculations are not just made based on assumptions; they are usually made after carrying out some analysis. Speculations are not always precise, and as such you have good speculations and bad ones.
One can actually have an expertise in speculating, if you do your analysis right most of the time.

[Clement Kaliyar]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:
I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

Anyone can form a theory and the meaning of speculation is to form a theory without any evidence and hence everyone can be a speculator and everyone can start their own theory and if millions of people speculate about a certain event, then someone will have a correct prediction.
There is no expertise in speculating as far as i know.

[gabbie2010]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:
I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

Anyone can form a theory and the meaning of speculation is to form a theory without any evidence and hence everyone can be a speculator and everyone can start their own theory and if millions of people speculate about a certain event, then someone will have a correct prediction.
There is no expertise in speculating as far as i know.

All the speculations are calculated guess formulated to theories some of the speculators would backed it up with some lagging indicators thus relate their speculations with TA while others are mere guessing without any proof, its very difficult to predict the price of cryptos without any sentiments.

[bitbunnny]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

in my observation, natural born speculators have an intuitive sense about market psychology and sentiment. they are generally contrarians---they must be, since the crowd is usually wrong. i definitely improved as a trader when i learned to play against my own fearful/greedy tendencies, and against the prevailing market sentiment. (ie "buy when there is blood in the streets)

in that sense, you could certainly use other peoples' speculations to your advantage, by observing sentiment and playing the contrarian when bullish/bearish sentiment becomes extreme.

Well, natural born speculators are very rare and they don't have any learned skills about speculation, it's kind of sixth sense. So, we can't speak of any kind of expertise and I don't think that speculation can be learned. Using other peoples' speculation might turn good but still you can't know how good speculator is.

[panganib999]

Well, I guess you could say everyone started from copying off from another. It's basically stealing knowledge and using it for yourself. It's not bad, but still, it is needed that you yourself have your own strategy, your own style, and your own way of development compared to other. Plus, it is kind of impossible for one to develop without even a simple starting point to go to, and if there's none, then you can't really call it speculation anymore, since the basics are already dead just in the beginning.

[buwaytress]

That's actually the entire premise of all these prediction-based AI/big data blockchain projects launching since 2017. Just believing that crowd wisdom eventually prevails in speculating, no TA to reverify findings, just picking the ones that have the highest accuracy. In fact, a new tool built by eToro if I recall just a month or two ago? It trawls through the entire Twitter space, just going through every possible speculation and then derives signals for people to trade on.

Crowd intelligence? I don't believe it works actually, or it does until it doesn't.

[1Referee]

Well, natural born speculators are very rare and they don't have any learned skills about speculation, it's kind of sixth sense. So, we can't speak of any kind of expertise and I don't think that speculation can be learned. Using other peoples' speculation might turn good but still you can't know how good speculator is.

All people are 'natural born' speculators.

I think you're reading it a bit too far. Anyone can speculate. All it takes is to buy x/y/z asset and think/hope it will go higher. There you are speculating on the price to increase. It requires no special ability or skill, it's something we apply in more facets of life.

Traders just go by the charts and calculate the probabilities of certain pattern formations to break either up or down. Some patterns tend to break 70% up and 30% down or vice versa. If you take 10 trades speculating on the price to break up you'll be more right than wrong. This doesn't require you to be a top trader, just know the market you are trading.

[exstasie]

That's actually the entire premise of all these prediction-based AI/big data blockchain projects launching since 2017. Just believing that crowd wisdom eventually prevails in speculating, no TA to reverify findings, just picking the ones that have the highest accuracy. In fact, a new tool built by eToro if I recall just a month or two ago? It trawls through the entire Twitter space, just going through every possible speculation and then derives signals for people to trade on.

Crowd intelligence? I don't believe it works actually, or it does until it doesn't.

I'm a big believer in sentiment analysis, but I'm really skeptical of these automated tools. The eToro project is basically just an analysis of 80 keywords, which alone sounds way too primitive to accurately capture market sentiment. The poor quality of the data makes interpreting it highly subjective too:

“We’re actually eliminating about 90% of tweets because we think they’re coming from bots or people trying to manipulate the market.”

The portfolio has performed poorly so far, down 25% since launch. No surprise there, especially given what they're investing in:

At launch, the portfolio included five different crypto assets: 47.24% stake in DASH; 23.92% EOS; 21.86% XRP; 5.01% MIOTA; and 1.97% ETC. It rebalances every month.