Can one have any expertise in Speculating?

[davinchi]

If you have enough money to speculate then you can surely have an expertise in it but for people who are poor it is really not that easy because you are at the hands of other rich people who can actually speculate the price with their actual money and be right because they are the ones changing the price, all you do is "assume" when you are poor and not speculate.

There are literally digital agencies in the world where they are secretly speculating prices of stuff, not just crypto (maybe not crypto at all) but forex and stock related stuff, they are hired by wall street people and secretly open thousands of accounts in hundreds of websites and all start to talk about the same point and try to make a collective mindset for the wall street people which is the real expertise. All we do here is "btc will be 20k!! wohoo" and that's it, no real speculation is that simple.

[1715042416]

1715042416

[Hamphser]

But I couldn't find out how to become an expert in speculating the price nor to see how to measure it. It seems to be that we all can be an expert on our own, believing ourselves might have to make it. But can't simply escape into some scenario that too much confidence will also put some bad ends into our life and it is to believe that we have to gather ideas and information to be found it reliable.

Speculating may seems like every man's business because what most people are doing is simply guessing. Few out of the many who speculate do so with solid knowledge and backed up history and evidences.
However, no matter how dedicate speculators are, giving a specific price to Bitcoin is still difficult.

Well, people are free to speculate for now, even if without accurate information, we can speculate and prices can approach that. even if it is speculation with data or charts, the most difficult thing to reach is the time it happened. so, because of this, many people speculate without reading anything, or just by looking at a chart.

It's true that we can speculate on our own but it doesn't mean that it is accurate because no one would be so accurate when making a speculation even with the pro analyst. They may get closer to the price that they speculated but it's still not accurate. We can speculate because this is an open market.

[Mahanton]

But I couldn't find out how to become an expert in speculating the price nor to see how to measure it. It seems to be that we all can be an expert on our own, believing ourselves might have to make it. But can't simply escape into some scenario that too much confidence will also put some bad ends into our life and it is to believe that we have to gather ideas and information to be found it reliable.

Speculating may seems like every man's business because what most people are doing is simply guessing. Few out of the many who speculate do so with solid knowledge and backed up history and evidences.
However, no matter how dedicate speculators are, giving a specific price to Bitcoin is still difficult.

Well, people are free to speculate for now, even if without accurate information, we can speculate and prices can approach that. even if it is speculation with data or charts, the most difficult thing to reach is the time it happened. so, because of this, many people speculate without reading anything, or just by looking at a chart.

It's true that we can speculate on our own but it doesn't mean that it is accurate because no one would be so accurate when making a speculation even with the pro analyst. They may get closer to the price that they speculated but it's still not accurate. We can speculate because this is an open market.

Speculating doesnt really have that kind of expert thing.We do see professionals or to those popular analyst but doesnt mean about precise predictions.
We can even make our own without relying others guess too.We are all the same on here but what differs is that on how a particular person using up
some tools which they do base out their speculation and this is where expertise counts but overall precision on the outcome?Theres no such thing about being pro.

[Hypnosis00]

But I couldn't find out how to become an expert in speculating the price nor to see how to measure it. It seems to be that we all can be an expert on our own, believing ourselves might have to make it. But can't simply escape into some scenario that too much confidence will also put some bad ends into our life and it is to believe that we have to gather ideas and information to be found it reliable.

Speculating may seems like every man's business because what most people are doing is simply guessing. Few out of the many who speculate do so with solid knowledge and backed up history and evidences.
However, no matter how dedicate speculators are, giving a specific price to Bitcoin is still difficult.

Well, people are free to speculate for now, even if without accurate information, we can speculate and prices can approach that. even if it is speculation with data or charts, the most difficult thing to reach is the time it happened. so, because of this, many people speculate without reading anything, or just by looking at a chart.

It's true that we can speculate on our own but it doesn't mean that it is accurate because no one would be so accurate when making a speculation even with the pro analyst. They may get closer to the price that they speculated but it's still not accurate. We can speculate because this is an open market.

Speculating doesnt really have that kind of expert thing.We do see professionals or to those popular analyst but doesnt mean about precise predictions.
We can even make our own without relying others guess too.We are all the same on here but what differs is that on how a particular person using up
some tools which they do base out their speculation and this is where expertise counts but overall precision on the outcome?Theres no such thing about being pro.

Then, we all just keep assuming. I hope it won't, if we give some market speculation we also need to have some basis for it and it may looks that it possible to happen. It is to know that no one could hit the real thing that will happen in the next days, that is why we are taking precautions before investing.

[Twinkledoe]

But I couldn't find out how to become an expert in speculating the price nor to see how to measure it. It seems to be that we all can be an expert on our own, believing ourselves might have to make it. But can't simply escape into some scenario that too much confidence will also put some bad ends into our life and it is to believe that we have to gather ideas and information to be found it reliable.

Speculating may seems like every man's business because what most people are doing is simply guessing. Few out of the many who speculate do so with solid knowledge and backed up history and evidences.
However, no matter how dedicate speculators are, giving a specific price to Bitcoin is still difficult.

Well, people are free to speculate for now, even if without accurate information, we can speculate and prices can approach that. even if it is speculation with data or charts, the most difficult thing to reach is the time it happened. so, because of this, many people speculate without reading anything, or just by looking at a chart.

It's true that we can speculate on our own but it doesn't mean that it is accurate because no one would be so accurate when making a speculation even with the pro analyst. They may get closer to the price that they speculated but it's still not accurate. We can speculate because this is an open market.

Speculating doesnt really have that kind of expert thing.We do see professionals or to those popular analyst but doesnt mean about precise predictions.
We can even make our own without relying others guess too.We are all the same on here but what differs is that on how a particular person using up
some tools which they do base out their speculation and this is where expertise counts but overall precision on the outcome?Theres no such thing about being pro.

Then, we all just keep assuming. I hope it won't, if we give some market speculation we also need to have some basis for it and it may looks that it possible to happen. It is to know that no one could hit the real thing that will happen in the next days, that is why we are taking precautions before investing.

That's why it is called speculation. No accuracy involved. So even if you are so-called expert in trading, you can't still predict the accurate price of btc or any other alts at a specific period of time. There are so many factors in play that you can't grasp all of it. Everyone can claim to have expertise in speculation, but the question is, how precise it is from the reality?

[yulionoo]

I don't think anyone is really good at speculating about bitcoin prices because bitcoin prices are very volatile. maybe people who are called experts or whose speculations are right they are just lucky. without using technical analysis and looking at bitcoin price movements it is very difficult to predict. maybe people called speculators are whales who can manipulate bitcoin prices.

[trickshot22]

Speculation would not be based on your own research or a mix of your own and other ideas and opinions. It depends on which one you tend to follow as long as you can make money with it, then your decision, and that's where risk comes in. Expertise isn't really the right word for this one yet it's not an ability that can be learned yet we're dealing with speculative stuff because price is unpredictable and plenty of factors that affect it but we can still assume things based on patterns or signals we've seen before.

[Soots]

Speculation would not be based on your own research or a mix of your own and other ideas and opinions. It depends on which one you tend to follow as long as you can make money with it, then your decision, and that's where risk comes in. Expertise isn't really the right word for this one yet it's not an ability that can be learned yet we're dealing with speculative stuff because price is unpredictable and plenty of factors that affect it but we can still assume things based on patterns or signals we've seen before.

Even though how skilled we are on analyzing the matters against speculations, that doesn't mean we're expert on different things. It should be initiated very deeply, because we might fall on wrong ideas. We must be more clever on different generative actions, and avoid being overconfident while you're just giving your personal thoughts as well.

[buwaytress]

Speculation would not be based on your own research or a mix of your own and other ideas and opinions. It depends on which one you tend to follow as long as you can make money with it, then your decision, and that's where risk comes in. Expertise isn't really the right word for this one yet it's not an ability that can be learned yet we're dealing with speculative stuff because price is unpredictable and plenty of factors that affect it but we can still assume things based on patterns or signals we've seen before.

Think you got it completely upside down, my friend. Ability you're born with, expertise you learn with time and experience. Suggesting that people intrinsically have talent and ability to speculate (and speculate accurately I mean) is perhaps only as realistic as hoping you also have the gift of clairvoyance or some kind of rainman gene to see deep patterns before they unfold.

Some things you can predict, but you can't predict consistently and accurately the price of Bitcoin at the exact time. And like all market action, you're right until you stop being right.

[wxa7115]

I sort of wonder about this because of that Jeopardy guy James Holzhauer and his incredible ability of consuming an unlimited amount of information and his recall ability. Add to that superior knowledge and common sense and a person like that would be great in speculating. 2nd to known.

Who is good in speculating have a nice winning rate, simple as that. How do they do it? They have a great analytic skill, they have the ability to process the info they collect everywhere around. Not everyone can do it, but many will try to have a winning rate in trading.
Can one have expertise in speculating, yes! If he is deep inside what he speculating about! If he knows how things work and where to look for info, if he have friends everywhere around who tip him with some info all the time.

If what you want is to increase the accuracy rate of your predictions then you need to reduce their time frame, most of us are interested in the long term trajectory of bitcoin and we decide to make predictions about where the price is going to be during the next months or even years and with the huge amount of factors that are outside of our comprehension then it is easy to see how we are bound to make many mistakes if we choose such a long time frame.

So an effective way to improve your ability to predict the market is to concentrate yourself in smaller time frames and if you add good money management skills you could easily become a profitable day trader.

[hulla]

I'm suggesting that there's no one who can forecast exactly what the bitcoin price will be next week. How can we believe that these years to come price predictions are going to be right? Bitcoin is not like government security bonds that will yield a steady return, full of uncertainty, and can bear any price. Stop predictions like that. If you're trying to predict price rather than long-term trend, you're going to get ruined in the long run.

You make a good point but checking at the author of this thread messages hes actually want to be a good speculator and asking for advise if reading through the speculation cone by people will help him but i believe watching some genuine expertise youtube video is enough. However, spening much time on speculation or trading seems not to be good to me because the result are not always correct and it better to be a holder most time.

[STT]

I dont especially agree on the point about contrarian sentiment because trading is about capturing momentum.  Its a break of a trend often but only in reference to a larger or longer term price pattern repeating.
   Anyone can speculate just like anyone can bet, you have to be ready to pay the price often in order to get the gains.   Part of the process is gaining experience and identifying common times a price can move in one direction especially, obviously the release of news is one of those times but often the graph will show price accumulating before that energy is obvious in moving the price one way or other.  The tricky point is that a very bearish pattern can flip and move upwards, especially in BTC alot of people try to enter at a price they think will gain.

[vintages]

I'm suggesting that there's no one who can forecast exactly what the bitcoin price will be next week. How can we believe that these years to come price predictions are going to be right? Bitcoin is not like government security bonds that will yield a steady return, full of uncertainty, and can bear any price. Stop predictions like that. If you're trying to predict price rather than long-term trend, you're going to get ruined in the long run.

I tend to call it 'guessing' cause that's what most people do. People guess what they 'hope' the price will be and get disappointed when it didn't work out.
We should look at the long term instead of short term, I notice that long term price prediction is almost closer than short term price prediction.

[Zemomtum]

Your question is unclear though but you can become expert in anything you are doing consistently. This is indeed a hard work that you need to know what those who get it right often do use by following their blog, video or other social channels. They usually share their experiences.

[atjiat]

I'm suggesting that there's no one who can forecast exactly what the bitcoin price will be next week. How can we believe that these years to come price predictions are going to be right? Bitcoin is not like government security bonds that will yield a steady return, full of uncertainty, and can bear any price. Stop predictions like that. If you're trying to predict price rather than long-term trend, you're going to get ruined in the long run.

I tend to call it 'guessing' cause that's what most people do. People guess what they 'hope' the price will be and get disappointed when it didn't work out.
We should look at the long term instead of short term, I notice that long term price prediction is almost closer than short term price prediction.

In any case, each cryptocurrency user acts at his discretion or under the influence of any forecasts or news.  One way or another, each trader is engaged in speculation in one way or another, having minimal results.  But in my opinion, only cryptocurrency users who work together with certain groups or communities, creating certain situations in the cryptocurrency market regarding certain coins can be a truly successful speculator.

[Arkann]

I'm suggesting that there's no one who can forecast exactly what the bitcoin price will be next week. How can we believe that these years to come price predictions are going to be right? Bitcoin is not like government security bonds that will yield a steady return, full of uncertainty, and can bear any price. Stop predictions like that. If you're trying to predict price rather than long-term trend, you're going to get ruined in the long run.

I tend to call it 'guessing' cause that's what most people do. People guess what they 'hope' the price will be and get disappointed when it didn't work out.
We should look at the long term instead of short term, I notice that long term price prediction is almost closer than short term price prediction.

In any case, each cryptocurrency user acts at his discretion or under the influence of any forecasts or news.  One way or another, each trader is engaged in speculation in one way or another, having minimal results.  But in my opinion, only cryptocurrency users who work together with certain groups or communities, creating certain situations in the cryptocurrency market regarding certain coins can be a truly successful speculator.

We are constantly outraged when it comes only to fraud on the cryptocurrency market and about the not very good influence of speculators on certain projects that may have prospects in the future or that do not show good results at all, but at the same time, such coins are supported by speculators at a high level, only  in order to get real profit.  Based on this, it is possible to accurately answer the question posed by the author of the topic that every speculator who has good results in his activity receives a certain experience, which he applies in his activity now and will apply it in the future.  But for you to understand me, speculation is not a negative phenomenon in the cryptocurrency market, because only certain groups of people use this type of activity with a negative for the entire cryptocurrency market.

[wxa7115]

Your question is unclear though but you can become expert in anything you are doing consistently. This is indeed a hard work that you need to know what those who get it right often do use by following their blog, video or other social channels. They usually share their experiences.

This is not completely true, how many people do you know that have been doing the same job for decades and they have not improved at all for a very long time and they ask you the same questions over and over again, if you want to become a better speculator then you need to study technical analysis and make a set of predictions about the markets and keep records of those predictions and see what it is that happened that made your predictions wrong.

If you do this for long enough your ability to predict the markets will definitely improve but almost no one takes the time to do anything remotely close to that.

[vicoma]

It is hard to predict the future accurately but you can be an expert if you read a lot of books, follow and watch expert videos on the subject matter. Nevertheless, there is no way to be 100 percent accurate always as there are a lot of factors that will determine the outcome.

[Cacingkemi]

maybe for some of us to be able to speculate with certainty about future market price movements, and some of them are accurate because of speculations made from strong instincts that can carefully read market charts. but most of the speculations made by everyone about market price movements are, of course, many unexpected. because basically market price movements cannot be ascertained and determined by anyone.

[STT]

Speculative ability is a talent I think, its very easy to speculate and end up with a loss.   Some consider it gambling but its judging changing factors correctly with some basis on experience.    In addition despite the use of leverage we are taking about the deployment of capital and money management to good effect.
  Its not what I consider an easy win, a simple bet is far less hassle and less involved however speculating means the odds are self determined and that is the skill to judge correctly.