There's no way this is a "V-shaped" recovery... right?

[mtwelve]

Instead of a V shaped recover, it is going to be more like W shaped recovery. And now really even a W shape more like WWWWWWW shape because we are going to feel the hurt of all this pandemic over and over again, there will be results and consequences of it for a long time.

This is what I was really thinking... but this way past the 68% fib retracement level - we hit that around 280 if I'm not incorrect... this is literally just hysteria...

i can't believe the s&p500 is back in the 3100s. less than 10% from the ATH now, insanity!

bears are getting destroyed. RIP shorters.

Have you seen the moves being made lately? AAL up 60%, airliners just SOARING - it's a weird world when Buffet sold the bottom.

i dunno what to make of it. it feels super irrational. even if the jobs numbers improved last month, we're still at high double digit unemployment with stimulus measures expiring soon. i don't see the market pricing in the future drops in earnings. when will they?

the coronavirus has been overshadowed in the news cycle by the george floyd protests, but cases are back on the rise in both the USA and worldwide. the protests could speed things up in that department too. the threat of a second wave still looms heavy and the market hasn't priced it in IMO.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/coronavirus-cdc-is-worried-americans-arent-following-its-advice-as-us-cases-continue-to-rise.html
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/05/world/coronavirus-cases-rising-faster-intl/index.html

EXACTYL! The headlines today were "DOW up 800 points because of better than expect unemployment numbers" Economists were expecting 19% and only got 13%? In what world is THAT GOOD?

How is everything this world/USA going through (pandemic, world of economic pain, rioting) justify ONLY a 10% discount from the ATH? There's literally no signs of stopping.

THis rally is incredible. I want to get in but IDK if I'm too late. I 've been telling myself this for weeks I should go for it...

Really kicking myself when $300 Calls for June 17 were only $80 a contract.... I would've made SO much money by now.

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[figmentofmyass]

i dunno what to make of it. it feels super irrational. even if the jobs numbers improved last month, we're still at high double digit unemployment with stimulus measures expiring soon. i don't see the market pricing in the future drops in earnings. when will they?

the coronavirus has been overshadowed in the news cycle by the george floyd protests, but cases are back on the rise in both the USA and worldwide. the protests could speed things up in that department too. the threat of a second wave still looms heavy and the market hasn't priced it in IMO.

EXACTYL! The headlines today were "DOW up 800 points because of better than expect unemployment numbers" Economists were expecting 19% and only got 13%? In what world is THAT GOOD?

How is everything this world/USA going through (pandemic, world of economic pain, rioting) justify ONLY a 10% discount from the ATH? There's literally no signs of stopping.

THis rally is incredible. I want to get in but IDK if I'm too late. I 've been telling myself this for weeks I should go for it...

Really kicking myself when $300 Calls for June 17 were only $80 a contract.... I would've made SO much money by now.

oh well, just be glad you weren't shorting or buying puts in april like people i know.

re "too late".....a couple strong growth stocks that are late to the party but also made huge breakouts this past thursday/friday are PLUG and AMAT. there are no guarantees on this roller coaster but i think they might pull an AMZN and make a new ATH before reality sets in re the true state of the economy.

interesting reading: https://www.barrons.com/articles/11-growth-stocks-that-arent-too-late-to-buy-yet-51591373760

[lumeire]

Perhaps a little off topic as not directly crypto but think it's important anyways to discuss the overall economy and how it may affect crypto.

So as those in tune with the stock market know, essentially we saw a high of 3340~ (SP500), a low of 2170~ (March 17th I believe) and then currently we are flirting with the 3000 barriers today (looks like either this week or next week it might break it).

The economist in me is screaming unprecedented debt, balance sheets, potential negative interest rates, unemployment claims, etc.

But unlimited QE, buying of junk bonds and equity, seems to have created this huge divergence between the usually rational market and it's underlying economy.

I'm young so this is my first real depression/recession I've experienced and really understood what's going on but those that were around for the 2008 GFC or Dec 2018 V shape recovery - does this feel different? What are your thoughts?

How has your asset allocation of stock,bonds, PMs, crypto changed? Are you more cash heavy right now? When do you think we'll the next leg down?

The stock market is recovering the losses but the economy isn't recovering yet. I guess this is because of the stimulus provided by the government, people are investing with that money and as they are spending the money so somewhat economy is getting back on track due to which The stock market is rising, and most probably people are also investing leftover money into stocks as well.

[mtwelve]

i dunno what to make of it. it feels super irrational. even if the jobs numbers improved last month, we're still at high double digit unemployment with stimulus measures expiring soon. i don't see the market pricing in the future drops in earnings. when will they?

the coronavirus has been overshadowed in the news cycle by the george floyd protests, but cases are back on the rise in both the USA and worldwide. the protests could speed things up in that department too. the threat of a second wave still looms heavy and the market hasn't priced it in IMO.

EXACTYL! The headlines today were "DOW up 800 points because of better than expect unemployment numbers" Economists were expecting 19% and only got 13%? In what world is THAT GOOD?

How is everything this world/USA going through (pandemic, world of economic pain, rioting) justify ONLY a 10% discount from the ATH? There's literally no signs of stopping.

THis rally is incredible. I want to get in but IDK if I'm too late. I 've been telling myself this for weeks I should go for it...

Really kicking myself when $300 Calls for June 17 were only $80 a contract.... I would've made SO much money by now.

oh well, just be glad you weren't shorting or buying puts in april like people i know.

re "too late".....a couple strong growth stocks that are late to the party but also made huge breakouts this past thursday/friday are PLUG and AMAT. there are no guarantees on this roller coaster but i think they might pull an AMZN and make a new ATH before reality sets in re the true state of the economy.

interesting reading: https://www.barrons.com/articles/11-growth-stocks-that-arent-too-late-to-buy-yet-51591373760

I'll definitely take a look at this - or just call it a day and do some $338 spy calls for JUne 30.

[Barnabe]

Perhaps a little off topic as not directly crypto but think it's important anyways to discuss the overall economy and how it may affect crypto.

So as those in tune with the stock market know, essentially we saw a high of 3340~ (SP500), a low of 2170~ (March 17th I believe) and then currently we are flirting with the 3000 barriers today (looks like either this week or next week it might break it).

The economist in me is screaming unprecedented debt, balance sheets, potential negative interest rates, unemployment claims, etc.

But unlimited QE, buying of junk bonds and equity, seems to have created this huge divergence between the usually rational market and it's underlying economy.

I'm young so this is my first real depression/recession I've experienced and really understood what's going on but those that were around for the 2008 GFC or Dec 2018 V shape recovery - does this feel different? What are your thoughts?

How has your asset allocation of stock,bonds, PMs, crypto changed? Are you more cash heavy right now? When do you think we'll the next leg down?

The stock market is recovering the losses but the economy isn't recovering yet. I guess this is because of the stimulus provided by the government, people are investing with that money and as they are spending the money so somewhat economy is getting back on track due to which The stock market is rising, and most probably people are also investing leftover money into stocks as well.

In my opinion, the people do not have much influence on the markets. I think whatever money they have will be used for consumer goods and first necessity items. The increase of stock and financial assets could be simply due to the massive amount of money the Federal Reserve has put into the market (as Quantitative Easing). Anyway, I do not believe the high prices we see today are sustainable...