Question for the Speculators... (experiment)

[Pipdips]

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth?

But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA.  They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum.  So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone.

What would the outcome be?  Big lose?  or Big win?

[bittraffic]

How are they going to click buy and sell if they are not going to look at the pair in the exchange?

The price action on the exchange is an indicator itself.  But if they are just going to call someone to execute the trade just like the stock market way before there were platforms to operate on the computers, the wall observer will do.  It would be fun like the wolves of the wallstreet movie but its going to be worse if the fudsters come to post.

[figmentofmyass]

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth?

But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA.  They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum.  So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone.

What would the outcome be?  Big lose?  or Big win?

they would probably lose it all in short order. if they use high leverage, they could lose it all in a day.

the prevailing wisdom is that 90-95%+ of all traders lose money. most people make a few losing trades and then quit forever. this would be no different---except this trader would have zero knowledge of TA or FA, thus they would be even worse off than average.

[harizen]

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth?

But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA.  They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum.  So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone.

What would the outcome be?  Big lose?  or Big win?

Who knows what will be the result. They will get a free trading fund after all so they will not feel pressured.

I've seen lots of new traders who don't have a knowledge of doing TAs (obviously, they are newbie) so instead of focusing too much to study how to do it which will take time, they based their strategy from what they read (other's view, prediction, speculations). All they need is basic knowledge about how to place a trade and understanding the risks then that's it, they can start doing trades now.

We can't really say if they will able to lose or win big out of just reading speculations. There are traders who don't rely on TA's but yielding good results. Proper timing and execution really play a big part here.

[Wexlike]

There was a great thread started back then by one pretty famous trader with a trading game. Many high caliber people started to play around and most of them lost more than the guys just hodling bitcoin. Only one trader came out a bit on top of the hodler.

Will try to find the thread !

[Pipdips]

How are they going to click buy and sell if they are not going to look at the pair in the exchange

Well,
We can hunt down a total newbie trader in the Trading Discussion forum
Newbies often post topics there saying "Im totallly new where do I start?"
Then if they agree to be part of the experiment, bring them over to Speculating
Then they can place orders from posting in this topic with a Volunteer Operator
Just use someones account at some exchange, they act as the operator
Let's say it is only $50 USD worth of a trading account
See what happens.
See how many orders they place and if they buy sell or hold, etc

The operator eliminates them from seeing live charts and prices bouncing
So they will be away from the heat of seeing real live charts in action

They only have all us bozos at Speculating to listen to

I can probably pony up a few bits

[Hippocrypto]

There was a great thread started back then by one pretty famous trader with a trading game. Many high caliber people started to play around and most of them lost more than the guys just hodling bitcoin. Only one trader came out a bit on top of the hodler.

Will try to find the thread !

They lost a lot because of aggressiveness and always took advantage of the current wave without analysing. Basically that's their mindset, only to earn quick profit and not long term plans. Holders allocated more days, months or even years to grow and increase the value of an asset before deciding to sell it. Speculations can influence a lot of people, that's why we need to avoid taking it seriously, in order to sustain until market fully recovers.

[STT]

No I think they could be successful with a blindfold strategy so long as they did the opposite of what consensus thread titles or even content appeared with.    So without TA they cant really be buying on less then daily bars or 1 buy or sell per day and basically be swing traders.    When threads are mostly gloomy, look to take a long bias trade and when everyone is mentioning half a million dollars per Bitcoin its time to take profits.
   If somehow they could be reading the crowd sentiment quite well via thread sentiment it could probably become profitable, when gloom is apparent and also price is negative for some time then you have a double negative.   Multiple two negative numbers and you will find a positive, theres some logic to be found amongst the chaos of the crowd.

[arwin100]

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth?

But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA.  They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum.  So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone.

What would the outcome be?  Big lose?  or Big win?

Come to think the scenario when you starting up did you struggle to make your first trade right? since for sure they will to and they will surely lose on their trading attempts since they don't know what they are doing and also if  they win maybe they  are lucky but I think they will be eaten by their greed to trade more since I will assume they will  aim for more bigger gains on the next trade. And it's really better if they have an information on the forum since event though sometimes it's misleading but for sure they will learn from it.

[youdacapt]

experimenting with $ 50 / $ 200 and only depends on speculation in this forum? for the spot market they will not lose too much, but if they are disciplined and only hold on one thread of speculation, the possibility of profit can occur because they do not emotionally conduct personal experiments with short target time intervals. The experimental results will be different if they use leverage, minimal capital is only enough to shorten the liquidation distance, the movement of the graph will be faster than the comments here, it is likely to fail.

[Reid]

Of course the losing part have the larger possibility than having a win.
If he did win, then let us say it is some beginners luck.
Or he could be reading a so much here in this forum for him to see when to sell or buy in the right moment.

It could also be the lab rat is too patient to wait for a good pump for him to win.
But to summarize it, everything cannot be learned here. You must first experience it and also some losses which is not bad if it is for knowledge.

[exstasie]

How are they going to click buy and sell if they are not going to look at the pair in the exchange

Well,
We can hunt down a total newbie trader in the Trading Discussion forum
Newbies often post topics there saying "Im totallly new where do I start?"
Then if they agree to be part of the experiment, bring them over to Speculating

If they're smart, they will break the rules and learn how to trade. That's what I'd do if someone gave me a couple hundred bucks to build from. I built my entire trading career from a $160 buy-in many years ago.

[adaseb]

This is actually a pretty good experiment. Give someone some capital and just counter-trade them. Most likely if you give them $1000 they will lose it and you can make that $1000 or multiples more if you just use more leverage.

Most new traders basically make good trades but they take profit way too early. So most likely they will have many $50 or $100 profit trades and they will have either 2 trades that are $500 losses or one trade which is a $1000 loss and run out of money.

Basically what the pros are doing, they let their winners run while keeping their losses small and that's how they survive for years while others quit.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, why don't you experiment with this winning strategy, zoom out, then Buy the dip, and HODL.

[piebeyb]

I studied TA myself and never learned from people, because I learned from experience that is the most important thing in my opinion, if they are new traders given capital and start trading just reading this speculation thread I think it's still lacking and of course there will be more losing money, because actually what they read on the speculation thread here should be an additional insight not the main lesson, the real lesson is when they try to trade and from that experience will teach them many things

To be honest, I sometimes don't believe in people drawing analysis charts that are really smart, logically in the world of crypto trading charts are usually formed because of traders, so which stupid traders want to spend their time following the prices on charts, I don't think there's time for that. , not the same as we analyze like in forex, crypto is unpredictable and still needs time to make many traders more mature in using analysis, everything is still out of control

[sunsilk]

If that newbie trader will always see the comments of others saying simply holding the bitcoin he has then he'll get to win. But the bitcoin he has is free so basically he wouldn't care if it will be at lose.

So, this kind of situational problems doesn't make sense for me. As expected, a newbie would find it difficult to follow strategy being taught to him because he lacks of experience.

[ashmodeus]

hmm ...
tend to lose i guess , because like u say before , all of what he need for trading just from this forum , knowledge , speculation, prediction is from people on this forum .
and i am sure mostly price prediction just a wishfull think.
but that will be different if he have a attitude to watch and see for a while.

[Wexnident]

I doubt its possible. Most discussions here in the Speculations are about the recent dumps and pumps, and there isn't much news regarding sideways movement like what we are currently experiencing right now. Plus, there's also the decision of whether the trader is investing in a long or short term one. Honestly, I doubt anyone has no idea what traders do. They should know by the term itself what they generally do, and should be able to come up with at the very least the most basic plan a trader could come up with and follow that. So, It isn't really a big win nor a big lose, speculation is also filled with luck after all, so no result in the end.
It would be a lot better if a simulation was done where the results are predetermined already, makes the test or experiment a lot more viable.

[buwaytress]

0.01 BTC is worth about $75 now but yeah I think the experiment would show that most of them would lose that amount -- but no different from most other supposedly trained traders these days. I mean, I've entered so-called expert/whale signal channels myself in the past (sue me, I was a n00b too) and with supposedly years of experience and skill behind them. You know what? They all did super well in 2017. And then did spectacularly shitty in 2018. I even PAID in Q1 2018 to see the premium channels myself and the founder actually told me it was literally the worst month for me to join. I just laughed and said fool me once shame on you.

Anyway, the experiment would depend on which threads get bumped up though, no? How would they pick which to follow?

[panganib999]

I guess the chances are mostly on the trader losing the BTC. Trading ain't really that easy and well, most of the posts here in speculation are actually analysis of movements already done. People with no knowledge of trading learn not from the result, but rather the process. Besides, even if he questioned people here, each and every one of us actually has a different trading plan being followed so I doubt any answer could possibly be helpful to him/her.
This is in the case of short term experiment though. In the long term, ngl, no need to view this forum. Just leave it there and wait a year, that should work out quite fine.