No ifs, no buts, not maybe Brexit is happening by 31st January 2020.

[Juggy777]

Boris has won the elections comfortably and has immediately proclaimed that, "We will get Brexit done on time by 31 January, no ifs, no buts, not maybe."

After all the drama and the uncertainty it’s finally happening, and I hope this decision will prove a good one for the UK citizens.

In another update Trump has promised a massive trade deal for the UK post the Brexit, and this is another good news for Boris and I’m sure many here would be keen to know what kind of deal will Trump offer him.

There was lots of debate on this but each time we all paused because there was no clarity whether it would happen or no, but today we have a deadline set and it’s time to revive this debate:

1) If Brexit happens without a deal will it crush UKs economy?.

2) Will US deal be so massive that UK doesn’t need EU deal?

3) Which major sector of UK will be hit because of Brexit, will it be tourism, education, industry’s etc.

In my personal view Brexit will open further doors for UK, because they’ll be free of the shackles that were put on it by the EU. Though in the short term their economy may take a hit, but in the long run I feel they’ll flourish.

 Now looking forward to reading your opinions about it, and especially people who like in UK e.g Jetcash I know lives there and if anyone else lives there feel free to give your inputs.

Sources:

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50776671

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-donald-trump-tweets-congratulations-21087836

[franky1]

no longer being limited to the EU supply chain means that the NHS can purchase different range of medication which are better priced than the elitist EU listings

UK no longer has to only farm to EU limits. we can start farming and exporting more
exporting is important.. its how our country generates money. we dont want to import as thats spending our money and giving it to other countries

if the UK exchange rate takes a hit post EU great. yea its more expensive to import. but that then energises our need to start making our own stuff again.
no more cheap belgium manufactured chocolate and we bring the UK chocolate brands back to life
we stop buying as many volkswagons but then we start opening more ford(US) and nissan(asia) factories and start bringing back our own brand cars.
i would actually love to see what a brand new morris miner would look like

stuff like 'customs tax' for food produce is not like 100% tax for cheese and chocolate anyway its like 12%
UK dont give a crap about 12% we usually see 'asda price' adverts change prices by 25-50% al the time. we are used to these silly price changes.
we should not worry about food costs doubling or spiralling out of control due to brexit. the only reason for price spirals is corporate greed exaggerating costs. but hey. we can just shop elsewhere if they abuse the brexit excuses to hie up prices

as for brexit.. the EU deals were pretty much done ages ago and the only stumbling block was finger wagging purely within uk parliament. well now boris is no longer just a May replacement but an actual voted in leader. he has the parliament 'trust' and has more power to break down the finger waggers trying to delay things.

yea some think UK is powerless and gonna take a big hit. but the truth is UK has the common wealth and we can actually trade with them more freely and they can trade more freely with us.

so what if we cant import tomatoes and lettuce and cucumbers from the EU.. we have good climate to grow our own
it was just about greedy pricing that just bought it too cheap from the eu. but now we are happily forced to start to realise we can 'buy british' for not much of a percentage difference

so what if EU lettuce becomes 12% more expensive or british lettuce becomes 15%.. thats not even a 10pence difference.

[TECSHARE]

Congrats on your new found independence limeys.

[franky1]

Congrats on your new found independence limeys.

can we, based on your presidents skin tone now declare you 'orangeys'

[styca]

Congrats on your new found independence limeys.

Thanks. I'm looking forward to our economy being bled dry and the NHS fully opened to US "healthcare" vultures. We will become a fully deregulated tax haven billionaires' playground, with zero workers' rights. And now the Tories have a majority, they can have another go at repealing the Human Rights Act.

Yay!

[franky1]

Congrats on your new found independence limeys.

Thanks. I'm looking forward to our economy being bled dry and the NHS fully opened to US "healthcare" vultures. We will become a fully deregulated tax haven billionaires' playground, with zero workers' rights. And now the Tories have a majority, they can have another go at repealing the Human Rights Act.

Yay!

this is why i love the satire of political version of democracy.
they pretend they have power due to 'the will of the people'
but if 'people said lets make sure all tax revenue went to supporting people health and welfares(hospital, security poverty, education)  the political leaders would happily spend biliions campaigning why they dont have to

[styca]

Congrats on your new found independence limeys.

Thanks. I'm looking forward to our economy being bled dry and the NHS fully opened to US "healthcare" vultures. We will become a fully deregulated tax haven billionaires' playground, with zero workers' rights. And now the Tories have a majority, they can have another go at repealing the Human Rights Act.

Yay!

this is why i love the satire of political version of democracy.
they pretend they have power due to 'the will of the people'
but if 'people said lets make sure all tax revenue went to supporting people health and welfares(hospital, security poverty, education)  the political leaders would happily spend biliions campaigning why they dont have to

"Democracy" in the UK is a f***ing joke. Newspapers and TV channels are owned by the rich elite, who demonise each and every Labour leader, and tell people to vote Conservative. And because a decent-sized section of the population are lazy prejudiced half-wits who believe whatever crap they are fed and have no ability or desire to think for themselves... the right-wing wins every time.

[theymos]

Another shocking election! I guess the spirit that caused the original brexit result and the Trump election isn't dead yet.

The EU is authoritarian and economically-intrusive, and I think that moving government power to more local levels tends to provide on-net-better outcomes than otherwise, so if I was a UK citizen, I definitely would've been a brexit supporter. That said, I'm not very optimistic about the UK's future. I feel like the UK's politics (ie. the feelings of the average person as well as the average politician) is actually 90% aligned with the EU. As a result, the UK is likely to more-or-less continue EU policies, which are anti-freedom and a drag on the economy, but via brexit it will lose the economic advantages it gained by being a prominent member of the EU.

The only way that brexit will end up being a net positive economically is if the UK adopts a lot of free-market policies that it couldn't have done while in the EU. Some possible outcomes, in order of most to least likely:

• IMO the most likely outcome is that the UK ends up as some sort of EU satellite like Switzerland. (This was basically May's deal.) As such, it will continue to be forced to do what the EU says, but will have less say in how the EU functions. Brexit supporters won't get anything they wanted, and remainers also won't be completely happy. Mostly the pre-brexit status quo will continue, but the UK will have lost a lot from the brexit commotion, and there may also be some continual economic disadvantages to their new status.
• Another possibility is that they hard-brexit but end up keeping 90% of the EU's policies, resulting in an attempt at being a "mini EU" economy. This will leave them in a no man's land where they won't be able to do trade deals with anyone, but their economy will be dragged down by the EU's anti-free-market policies. This'll result in economic disaster, and eventually it'd have to change. Probably after several years of deep recession, the political winds would blow toward rejoining the EU (under much less favorable terms).
• Less likely, the UK could hard-brexit and align themselves pretty closely to the US. This is what Trump is offering. It requires a hard brexit, or something close. Although the US is very far from perfect, this probably would be enough of a free-market shift to be a net benefit for the UK. The trouble is that as I mentioned, the UK's population seems politically aligned with the EU, not the US. When the US's draft trade deal was published some time ago, people in the UK were freaking out about "chlorinated chicken" and "selling off the NHS", etc.
• Very unlikely, the UK could hard-brexit and not align themselves with anyone, but drop almost all EU policies and become a free-market haven like Singapore. This'd be excellent, but it seems unlikely.

I'll continue watching with interest...

[styca]

Another shocking election! I guess the spirit that caused the original brexit result and the Trump election isn't dead yet.

No, and it's spreading across the globe. Turkey, India, the Philippines, etc etc. It seems all you need to take power these days is to be an extreme right-wing populist strongman, and play to the prejudices of the disenfranchised masses - those same prejudices that have been created and stoked by the right-wing media over the years.

• IMO the most likely outcome is that the UK ends up as some sort of EU satellite like Switzerland. (This was basically May's deal.) As such, it will continue to be forced to do what the EU says, but will have less say in how the EU functions. Brexit supporters won't get anything they wanted, and remainers also won't be completely happy. Mostly the pre-brexit status quo will continue, but the UK will have lost a lot from the brexit commotion, and there may also be some continual economic disadvantages to their new status.
• Another possibility is that they hard-brexit but end up keeping 90% of the EU's policies, resulting in an attempt at being a "mini EU" economy. This will leave them in a no man's land where they won't be able to do trade deals with anyone, but their economy will be dragged down by the EU's anti-free-market policies. This'll result in economic disaster, and eventually it'd have to change. Probably after several years of deep recession, the political winds would blow toward rejoining the EU (under much less favorable terms).
• Less likely, the UK could hard-brexit and align themselves pretty closely to the US. This is what Trump is offering. It requires a hard brexit, or something close. Although the US is very far from perfect, this probably would be enough of a free-market shift to be a net benefit for the UK. The trouble is that as I mentioned, the UK's population seems politically aligned with the EU, not the US. When the US's draft trade deal was published some time ago, people in the UK were freaking out about "chlorinated chicken" and "selling off the NHS", etc.
• Very unlikely, the UK could hard-brexit and not align themselves with anyone, but drop almost all EU policies and become a free-market haven like Singapore. This'd be excellent, but it seems unlikely.

I'll continue watching with interest...

Difficult to predict, but I would think option 3 or 4 would be the most likely. The Conservatives want to strip back the state as far as possible, and remove any brakes on the excesses of capitalism. Their aim has always been self-enrichment not by building a strong economy, but by bleeding the population dry and increasing inequality. Workers' rights will be a key target. They've already tried to repeal the Human Rights Act, and they will likely try again. Singapore-on-Thames seems like the sort of thing they'd aim for.

...But if not, and it's a choice between alignment with the US or with the EU, it will definitely be the US. Anti-EU sentiment has been built up to outright hysteria over the last few years, whereas the US are always painted as the good guys. US hard-edged capitalism is the Tory ideal. We have our Donald Trump in Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, and we even have our own Senator McCarthy in Nigel Farage.

[poptok1]

and I think that moving government power to more local levels tends to provide on-net-better outcomes than otherwise

Now that's a shocker for me, thought you don't like commies, this is basically UN and EU agenda 2030, death to nations and local empowerment scam. Perpetrated by TNC (The Network of Global Corporate Control) aka NWO in order to seize complete power. Only hope is a strong, independent and united nation, free of fractional-reserve banking.

• Less likely, the UK could hard-brexit and align themselves pretty closely to the US. This is what Trump is offering. It requires a hard brexit, or something close. Although the US is very far from perfect, this probably would be enough of a free-market shift to be a net benefit for the UK. The trouble is that as I mentioned, the UK's population seems politically aligned with the EU, not the US. When the US's draft trade deal was published some time ago, people in the UK were freaking out about "chlorinated chicken" and "selling off the NHS", etc.

I'm 99% sure this will happen, I think it already did but it wasn't announced to the Gentiles yet  

• Very unlikely, the UK could hard-brexit and not align themselves with anyone, but drop almost all EU policies and become a free-market haven like Singapore. This'd be excellent, but it seems unlikely.

City doesn't need this, people have no balls, society divided -> society ruled.

[franky1]

america trades with the eu asia trades with the eu without being 'in the eu'
so its not going to be a worse case scenario no trade policy.. we will still trade

the concerns are over the costs of the customs taxes. but most average joe people dont realise that customs taxes are not high % (apart from expensive crap like luxury cars that are over a few 100k..) average joe shouldnt care about that small niche high tax and the rich dont care because they just declare it under a eu shell company and get tax breaks.. so no real big deal really.

other concerns are on the 'right to work'. EG people coming over to the UK to work on the cheap so we can have cheap labour. and us to go to warmer climates and DJ in spanish nightclubs and bars. that will still occur. in my travels i seen many americans australians and such working in the EU and as i said they are not EU nationals

so if you want a good comparison. whatever american can buy and sell and do with the EU the UK can do too.

as for the laws just leaving the eu does not mean all laws vanish. it then takes a process to go through the laws and decide which ones dont fit, which ones do.
a hihg percentage of them will stay the same because we actually like some of the standards

yes some laws will change over time. but thats not a concern for january 2020. that will take years of change and we can get our chances to poke our MP's to vote against some of the ones that have truly nasty effects

we dont be getting rid of 'human rights' because although there is EU versions. there is also UN version we will still have to obide by. so relax about thinking we will go to a slave nation

[styca]

america trades with the eu asia trades with the eu without being 'in the eu'
so its not going to be a worse case scenario no trade policy.. we will still trade

Yes, we will, just on worse terms. The bigger you are, the more negotiating power you have. The UK as part of an EU bloc has considerable power. Whereas the UK alone is a small, unimportant backwater country with delusions of grandeur, still dreaming of an empire that has long since gone. There's a reason that the independent high-street grocers have all been replaced by huge supermarket chains. John Smith can buy a tin of beans from his supplier for 20p and sell for 25p, making 5p profit. Tesco can bulk-buy at 10p per tin, sell at 19p, and put John out of business. Size = power.

we actually like some of the standards

I'm not convinced that the Tories do. Standards are a barrier to profit. Profit (and power) are the only points of interest. Standards may be important for protecting the weak and the disenfranchised, but the Tories have a 'f**k the poor' mentality, as they demonstrate whenever they are in power.

we can get our chances to poke our MP's to vote against some of the ones that have truly nasty effects

Sure, but what proportion of the electorate can think for themselves, and what proportion thinks what they are told to think? Nasty effects are routinely hidden out of sight.

we dont be getting rid of 'human rights' because although there is EU versions. there is also UN version we will still have to obide by. so relax about thinking we will go to a slave nation

No, rights won't be removed entirely, just watered down gently but remorselessly.


... Sorry if I'm being overly pessimistic. It just seems like the whole country will be for sale. The NHS is already being eaten away. Even I am now for sale, going for £40-£100 on eBay. Package me carefully, please. I break easily.

[franky1]

if you have not seen my writing style over the last few years i am an admitted pessimist to the extreme. but i do my research first

take a look at customs fee's
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/check-temporary-rates-of-customs-duty-on-imports-after-eu-exit
its not hidden

normal average joe car imports 10%
so no need to armegeddon fear 200% price increases
a £15k car becomes £16,500.. not much different.

we can also affect the EU<>pound exchange rate to curb that £1500 difference to appear less.
or very worse case. just build our own
after all who actually wants a volkswaggon..
BMW lovers can syphon the costs as some tax relief as most BMW owners can either afford it anyway or they 'lease' the car for 4 years and find other loop holes
..
as for worries about 'chlorinated' chicken an food standards..
well british farmers can sell 'organic' chlorine free chicken. no rules will be in place to ban healthier versions.

infact most frozen chicken is already pumped with extra water/brine to fake the weight per bag so its not much of a change if things come to that. (super market own brand frozen chicken is cheaper for a reason)
and if it does, well we can just go to local produce instead

over the years there have been many food recalls where people found certain things unacceptable and yes supermarkets reacted

we wont become a lawless country with no trade partners
and the UK is not that weak when you consider the common wealth and other trade deals we already get.
(exotic fruits dont magic themselves onto supermarket shelves, obviously)

even fears about potatos where brits think it comes from southern ireland, are meaningless fears. we actualy home grown most of our own and the rest when out of season, we get cheap from egypt. yep thats right egypt
after al if its too cold in england it sure as hell is too cold in ireland to get our christmas spud

we have more trade partners than many other countries do. and that aint gonna change

if your still pessimistic about supermarket power
well supermarkets sell wonky veg because customers demanded it.
and as a funny point. because one girl sent sainsburys a letter asking them to change 'tiger bread' to 'giraffe bread' .. sainsburys done it.

[jackg]

Since we opted in to a lot of food standard from the EU (such as with bird egg and meat production) I will assumnthis stays at a similar ethicicity and doesn't become like the US where 'free range' just means without cage and on a concrete floor away from any sunlight (I mean if you want no nutrition then sure)...

The UK won't leave the EU by the end of January, we'll just start out exit. Which will take another four years. And even then, Boris said we were leaving on October 31st and the same politicians blocked that...


Most people are probably in denial/disappointed by the vote for tory (since they only got 44% - not exactly the landslide predicted).

Either way this is going to either end horribly or quite well. I'm not sure how much trade we do with the US but they do have a lot of investors which their government will want to keep happy.

[franky1]

Since we opted in to a lot of food standard from the EU (such as with bird egg and meat production) I will assumnthis stays at a similar ethicicity and doesn't become like the US where 'free range' just means without cage and on a concrete floor away from any sunlight (I mean if you want no nutrition then sure)...

what you may not realise is if EU produce becomes more expensive the UK cn say well we can accept the higher price but we want higher standard. EG we only really grab champagne because its a higher quality. the other vinegar fruit stuff we dont care about

yes we would accept less quality stuff. but it would only be accepted if cheaper. so dont expect high price low quality. expect high price high quality low price low quality.. much like what we currently have with supermarkets 'basics' range and 'luxury range'... and everything else in between
our shelves will not go empty
by the way. EU accepts horse meat. but as a few year ago proved. we just said no. so we do have higher standards

The UK won't leave the EU by the end of January, we'll just start out exit. Which will take another four years.

agreed. its not an overnight doomsday in january. everyone needs to relax

And even then, Boris said we were leaving on October 31st and the same politicians blocked that...

boris didnt really have a fist of power before. he was just a stand-in actor after T Mays resignation. but now as a elected leader he doesnt have to just be a speaker but a pusher.

(i am very much anti tory. but my mindset is outside of the tory drama and about the reality of economic change no matter who is in charge)

we already know worse case scenarios. and they aint that bad. its all just been drama of making it all sound bad just to make other countries not want to follow suit, enmasse

Most people are probably in denial/disappointed by the vote for tory (since they only got 44% - not exactly the landslide predicted).

these days all political party lack any credible pledges/promises. so it just become a 'just get on with it' vote

Either way this is going to either end horribly or quite well. I'm not sure how much trade we do with the US but they do have a lot of investors which their government will want to keep happy.

we trade with loads of countries. yes we will have extra favour with america but that doesnt make them our sole puppet master of produce supply. we will still trade with other countries. we are not trading an eu puppet master for a us puppet master. we are basically.. using a analogy even teenagers would understand.. leaving our parents home and setting up our own bachelors pad and letting more random girls come over and offer their services instead of being spoon fed by mommy and daddy EU.

[jackg]

what you may not realise is if EU produce becomes more expensive the UK cn say well we can accept the higher price but we want higher standard. EG we only really grab champagne because its a higher quality. the other vinegar fruit stuff we dont care about

yes we would accept less quality stuff. but it would only be accepted if cheaper. so dont expect high price low quality. expect high price high quality low price low quality.. much like what we currently have with supermarkets 'basics' range and 'luxury range'... and everything else in between
our shelves will not go empty
by the way. EU accepts horse meat. but as a few year ago proved. we just said no. so we do have higher standards

Yes that's true. A lot of the meat we already buy comes from biritish farmers and as long as they're well funded I won't see any difference there (or even if the prices go up as they're classed as a higher quality).

I'd be happier to pay higher for good quality and potentialy lower for low quality (for certain people who can't afford the higher quality of product).

The basics and luxury producrt range is a good analogy like we have at the moment it definitely means consumers are trying to demand a higher quality in products if they can feel the differece (like me).

boris didnt really have a fist of power before. he was just a stand-in actor after T Mays resignation. but now as a elected leader he doesnt have to just be a speaker but a pusher.

(i am very much anti tory. but my mindset is outside of the tory drama and about the reality of economic change no matter who is in charge)

we already know worse case scenarios. and they aint that bad. its all just been drama of making it all sound bad just to make other countries not want to follow suit, enmasse

No the worst case scenario wasn't so bad, I think the BoE predicted a loss of 7% to our gdp if we had no deal at all so it probably sin't too catastrophic (I wouldn't like to be living paycheck to paycheck though in these times).

I think the three to four years of stagnation has led me to ignore the reasons I would have liked to leave iin the first place (i.e different labour sources since we would have more immigration from asia and africa and a few other places rather than just the EEA). There's also a bit of protection on better customs checks.

In the past we've always been on the same page with a lot of Europe (at least in the recent past) and it would be good for that to continue, I notice a lot of legislation is shared and copied between countries and I assume that will still be a thing since the UK was driving for privacy controls with Germany, Finland on its animal welfare and farming practises, France on it's stances against the US on certain issues.

Most people are probably in denial/disappointed by the vote for tory (since they only got 44% - not exactly the landslide predicted).

these days all political party lack any credible pledges/promises. so it just become a 'just get on with it' vote

I was really hoping for a hung parliament of probably 300 conservative, 250 labour and 50 snp, it was the only way I could see a good decision come of this because now the conservatives may be able to get a really bad deal through parliament without much resistance. (I had given up on assuming that the conservatives wouldn't have some sort of majority as they convinced the working class literally everyone else was the enimy and it was only them who could stop them)...

we trade with loads of countries. yes we will have extra favour with america but that doesnt make them our sole puppet master of produce supply. we will still trade with other countries. we are not trading an eu puppet master for a us puppet master. we are basically.. using a analogy even teenagers would understand.. leaving our parents home and setting up our own bachelors pad and letting more random girls come over and offer their services instead of being spoon fed by mommy and daddy EU.

Yep again, as long as our standards remain particularly high and as you mentioned with the horse meat issue the government was fairly fast to find it in supermarkets.

And as someone mentioned above, the worst that can happen is we pay 12% extra for food. Also, if you look into certain products, I think the shippers make a huge cut on some of them (I have a contact from spain who said a lot of the fruit and veg there was a lot cheaper than it is here - I forget the speciifics - shippers and truck drivers certainly amount to the extra costs of imported food, I did a case study on it with a few economists a while back and it was a very profitible industry).

Also coroporation tax is going down to 17% (I think it's 19) so that might allow for some losses due to a bad departure.

[franky1]

I was really hoping for a hung parliament of probably 300 conservative, 250 labour and 50 snp,

hung parliament? no such thing.
it would have just been another 'coalition government' which if based on your prefered numbers would have seen a tory SNP

coalitions are not good because it just causes excuses and finger pointing at blaming certain sides for just not going forward with things.

though i detest tories. now that they are just a tory leadership and not a tory libdem(previous) or a tory DUP(previous) they got no excuses

so if anything goes bad. its all on them and them alone. no one else to blame. so now they should get their act together. finally

[tsaroz]

British politics is being stuck with Brexit for too long. They should at least move.
People are fed up with this stand still. Britain has seen a lot worse situations, this would certainly pass.

[squatz1]

The reason that Boris one is that he ran on a very simple platform. He's going to get brexit done and get over with it. He never said that he's going to do a 'hard exit' or anything along those lines, as he'll be negotiating with the EU as of right now -- though he does have a good deal of cushion b/c he has a MASSIVE majority (biggest since Thatcher in the 80's)

Fucking Corbyn is an idiot -- trying to appease both sides didn't work out for him and now the guy is going to be out of a job.

Boris knows that if he can get a nice win on leaving the EU and getting an OKAY deal with them, then he can move on to real policy and showing that he keeps his promises.

[Jet Cash]

If you link trade deals to Brexit withdrawal, then it isn't Brexit. We need to regain complete control, and then leave the industries to sort out trade deals. I hope Boris does try to help us to regain independence, but he is an Eton/Oxford banker, so it is unlikely that he will allow us to break free completely. The EU is controlled by the morphed British Empire, and the ruling dynasties there are the Rothscilds, The Vatican and the British Crown. They also control the UK civil service, Westminster, the police and the judiciary. They also control the mainstream media. It is difficult to see how Boris can get us away from that.

If he really wants to improve the NHS, then banning Statins, repurchasing NHS property, and taking back control of services will save massive cash outflows for generations to come. Lets have some research into the real effects of allopathic drugs, and reduce over prescribing them.

Then he can address banking. The UK used to be a capitalist nation, but the EU is one of the vehicles that has consistently transferred capital out of the country. You can't have capitalism without capital, so lets return to wealth creation, and get back to rebuilding capital and entrepreneurship.