❄️ BITCOIN : winter is coming? by 𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓬𝓴𝓿𝓼 𝓡. 𝓐𝓬𝓴𝓮𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓷𝓷 ❄️

[markus.ackermann89]

we need to officially break this 6-month downtrend before it's safe to margin long IMO. the downtrend line is ~$9k, and to form a weekly higher high we need to break $10350 (bitstamp).

good luck though. i respect your courage and i hope you're right. the trade is just too risky for my taste, especially considering your own TA is pointing to the $4000s.

I agree with your idea but personally I would feel safer to buy now than in a strong bullrun with possible market overload as happened to me in the past, I am trying to buy as low as possible for this reason and not for greed with desire to earn as much as possible.

i'm not saying to wait until the actual blow-off top (like last june) before leveraging long. i'm just saying that it's very risky to leverage long into a downtrend. i only long strong uptrends and short strong downtrends. everything else is for spot trading, where i can ride out choppy range markets and drawdowns without risking too much capital.

$5k-$8k seems like a smart accumulation zone for spot BTC---and i am putting my fiat money back into the market at these levels. leverage is a whole different animal though.

to each his own. different strokes for different folks.....

Obviously I agree with you that this is a good time to open long positions.
Everyone has their own opinions, I just hope I was helpful in sharing my thoughts with you, I appreciate your opinions and I thank you for the excellent point of view you pointed out to me.

[trumpman]

Here my TA

👨‍💻 My Opinion: if you're wondering what to do now, I don't know. Currently I'm in a long position with 15% of my capital that I have no intention to close even if negative, yes I decided to hodl my position up to the liquidation price ($5,900)!

📊 Why did I decide that?
Because if BTC will dump to test the $6,000 support I will open another long position in order to have the liquidation below $5/4.5k as far as possible from the MA 200 on Weekly TF.

Conclusion:
I hope I don't get to liquidation, but even if I did, I always have a plan B ready. 🥶

Good Luck Markus R. Ackermann

So essentially your TA is that it wi either go up or.go.down. Nice.

Personally I don't care I just hodl,.do occasional swings when I spot a good opportunity and make sure to get my bags heavier and heavier by the day. The longer the winter lasts the better the spring will be for me 🤣. If a spring ever comes that is 🤣🤣🤣

[markus.ackermann89]

Here my TA

👨‍💻 My Opinion: if you're wondering what to do now, I don't know. Currently I'm in a long position with 15% of my capital that I have no intention to close even if negative, yes I decided to hodl my position up to the liquidation price ($5,900)!

📊 Why did I decide that?
Because if BTC will dump to test the $6,000 support I will open another long position in order to have the liquidation below $5/4.5k as far as possible from the MA 200 on Weekly TF.

Conclusion:
I hope I don't get to liquidation, but even if I did, I always have a plan B ready. 🥶

Good Luck Markus R. Ackermann

So essentially your TA is that it wi either go up or.go.down. Nice.

Personally I don't care I just hodl,.do occasional swings when I spot a good opportunity and make sure to get my bags heavier and heavier by the day. The longer the winter lasts the better the spring will be for me 🤣. If a spring ever comes that is 🤣🤣🤣

Yes, I believe that the TA on the BTC market cannot be complicated because the market is young and the patterns that are formed do not end in a way like in the bigger markets (for example FIAT).

What I consider in the BTC market are:
- Supports
- Resistances
- Double Bottom and Double Top
- Falling and Rising wedge
- Symmetrical, Ascending and Descending

Other more complex patterns should be avoided because they are very difficult to find and very difficult to predict.

[Hippocrypto]

Here my TA

👨‍💻 My Opinion: if you're wondering what to do now, I don't know. Currently I'm in a long position with 15% of my capital that I have no intention to close even if negative, yes I decided to hodl my position up to the liquidation price ($5,900)!

📊 Why did I decide that?
Because if BTC will dump to test the $6,000 support I will open another long position in order to have the liquidation below $5/4.5k as far as possible from the MA 200 on Weekly TF.

Conclusion:
I hope I don't get to liquidation, but even if I did, I always have a plan B ready. 🥶

Good Luck Markus R. Ackermann

So essentially your TA is that it wi either go up or.go.down. Nice.

Personally I don't care I just hodl,.do occasional swings when I spot a good opportunity and make sure to get my bags heavier and heavier by the day. The longer the winter lasts the better the spring will be for me 🤣. If a spring ever comes that is 🤣🤣🤣

I always ignore my blockfolio's recent price chart changes, it was just making my day so bad together with other pressures work at the office. Partly that's good decision to hodl of rather than ranting of selling after seeing market downfalls. We can't just expect faster increase of btc price after long period of time experiencing a lot of recession. That needs enough time to recover, long term goals for that winter is yet to come but just stay calm and have focus.

[pooya87]

~
As I said in a previous comment, despite my current situation (in loss) I am very confident that the BTC down trand will end by the end of January.

i don't think we can see any downtrend to want to end in January. this was it!
we may see some similar weird out of nowhere drops like what we saw recently that end up with an immediate jump back but that can't be called a trend. if this is also what you had in mind then i agree, this could end in January.

[markus.ackermann89]

~
As I said in a previous comment, despite my current situation (in loss) I am very confident that the BTC down trand will end by the end of January.

i don't think we can see any downtrend to want to end in January. this was it!
we may see some similar weird out of nowhere drops like what we saw recently that end up with an immediate jump back but that can't be called a trend. if this is also what you had in mind then i agree, this could end in January.

Exactly, I believe that there will be only two roads that BTC will follow:
- The price continues to fall to $ 4.5k and then bounce (to 6k --> 8k --> 10k --> ATH).
- The price will begin to rise from the new year without making new lows.

And I personally am ready for any eventuality

[darkangel11]

~
As I said in a previous comment, despite my current situation (in loss) I am very confident that the BTC down trand will end by the end of January.

i don't think we can see any downtrend to want to end in January. this was it!
we may see some similar weird out of nowhere drops like what we saw recently that end up with an immediate jump back but that can't be called a trend. if this is also what you had in mind then i agree, this could end in January.

I also don't see us going down in January. We probably will never go below 5k again. That train has left the station and like those bears who were hoping for us to go to 1k last year the bears waiting for sub 3k this year will be all grumpy.
I like predictions by Tone Vays because he's always a little too bearish. By his mood you can predict some good trades a little above his predictions. For instance, he was expecting 1k last year when we were at 10k, and we went down to 3k, so he was close but too bearish. This time he was predicting sub 6k, we went down to 6.4k and then he was predicting a bounce back to 7k and we went to 7.4, so take his predictions with a 20% to the up side and you could do good  

[markus.ackermann89]

~
As I said in a previous comment, despite my current situation (in loss) I am very confident that the BTC down trand will end by the end of January.

i don't think we can see any downtrend to want to end in January. this was it!
we may see some similar weird out of nowhere drops like what we saw recently that end up with an immediate jump back but that can't be called a trend. if this is also what you had in mind then i agree, this could end in January.

I also don't see us going down in January. We probably will never go below 5k again. That train has left the station and like those bears who were hoping for us to go to 1k last year the bears waiting for sub 3k this year will be all grumpy.
I like predictions by Tone Vays because he's always a little too bearish. By his mood you can predict some good trades a little above his predictions. For instance, he was expecting 1k last year when we were at 10k, and we went down to 3k, so he was close but too bearish. This time he was predicting sub 6k, we went down to 6.4k and then he was predicting a bounce back to 7k and we went to 7.4, so take his predictions with a 20% to the up side and you could do good  

Personally I don't know Tone Vays because as I said earlier I don't follow anyone's forecasts since the trading experts who come from FIAT or STOCK trades BTC first of all, a very young and very volatile market, the latter trace forecasts by tracing the random lines because sentiment is recommended.

So in the last few years I understood that if I have to follow someone's TA and earn / improve I prefer to dare the merit / guilt to me.

[beerlover]

Currently I'm in a long position with 15% of my capital that I have no intention to close even if negative, yes I decided to hodl my position up to the liquidation price ($5,900)!

After the quick bounce back from $6400 to $7100 levels, I too believe sailing now in long position would be much safer provided that few back up plans. Still, I believe your 15% is too low when considering the festival time and upcoming halving. I mean to say if you are not into leveraged trading, going with up to 50% of your capital also will be good as most downfall of BTC markets now a days end up in quick bounce back.

if BTC will dump to test the $6,000 support I will open another long position in order to have the liquidation below $5/4.5k as far as possible from the MA 200 on Weekly TF.

I find the strong support levels still in action around $6500 levels. So, it would be too hard for the current markets to break this support levels to test anything below $6000 levels. Bitcoin prices may test below $7000 levels as of now but it will not hold there for sure. I believe $8100 levels are on the way when markets hold from current prices.

I hope I don't get to liquidation, but even if I did, I always have a plan B ready.[/i]

Please find time to share is your alternative view. For same back-up plans and confirming with my own research, I am just asking this.

[buwaytress]

So you're a holder, but you're willing to lose money when forced to liquidate? Assuming that here you're either on futures contracts or buying on margin... Why not do yourself a favour and actually but btc and actually hold? If the purpose is to hold and go long, big time, that is the only option that makes sense.

Or have I missed something here? Why all the bother with liquidation prices?

[error08]

https://m.imgur.com/gallery/AGfUKag

📊 Why did I decide that?
Because if BTC will dump to test the $6,000 support I will open another long position in order to have the liquidation below $5/4.5k as far as possible from the MA 200 on Weekly TF.

It seems more likely not happen, there is no winter but summer is coming instead.
Bitcoin briefly drops to $6500 but quickly rebound above $7000 even before I could buy the dip, thought it was going to stay below $7K for a few days but it didn't. We can expect to close the year with the price range within $7K-$8K, I guess.

[aardvark15]

I’m holding no matter how low the price gets. With my luck I’ll sell at the bottom and watch the price go on a bull run. Since I’m in for the long run, I’ll just hold and not sell.

[markus.ackermann89]

Currently I'm in a long position with 15% of my capital that I have no intention to close even if negative, yes I decided to hodl my position up to the liquidation price ($5,900)!

After the quick bounce back from $6400 to $7100 levels, I too believe sailing now in long position would be much safer provided that few back up plans. Still, I believe your 15% is too low when considering the festival time and upcoming halving. I mean to say if you are not into leveraged trading, going with up to 50% of your capital also will be good as most downfall of BTC markets now a days end up in quick bounce back.

if BTC will dump to test the $6,000 support I will open another long position in order to have the liquidation below $5/4.5k as far as possible from the MA 200 on Weekly TF.

I find the strong support levels still in action around $6500 levels. So, it would be too hard for the current markets to break this support levels to test anything below $6000 levels. Bitcoin prices may test below $7000 levels as of now but it will not hold there for sure. I believe $8100 levels are on the way when markets hold from current prices.

I hope I don't get to liquidation, but even if I did, I always have a plan B ready.[/i]

Please find time to share is your alternative view. For same back-up plans and confirming with my own research, I am just asking this.

I agree with what you said, but if I have invested only 15% of my capital in this (leveraged) operation, it is because I am not willing to lose more than that in the event that btc dump to $ 5k.

Obviously I have other funds diversified on other cryptocurrencies that I bought in spot.

[markus.ackermann89]

So you're a holder, but you're willing to lose money when forced to liquidate? Assuming that here you're either on futures contracts or buying on margin... Why not do yourself a favour and actually but btc and actually hold? If the purpose is to hold and go long, big time, that is the only option that makes sense.

Or have I missed something here? Why all the bother with liquidation prices?

You're absolutely right, but if I see the opportunity to earn more BTC with trading, why shouldn't I take this opportunity?

Yes I could hold my BTC in safe and I would have profit in the long term (2-3 years) but in the meantime what do I do? Which is why I decided to risk 15% of my capital in a trade and 35% of my capital in altcoin (in spot) the remaining 50% I am holding.

l in case I lose that 15% of my capital, I recover the loss in the equivalent of USD when btc will reach about $ 10k.

[markus.ackermann89]

https://m.imgur.com/gallery/AGfUKag

📊 Why did I decide that?
Because if BTC will dump to test the $6,000 support I will open another long position in order to have the liquidation below $5/4.5k as far as possible from the MA 200 on Weekly TF.

It seems more likely not happen, there is no winter but summer is coming instead.
Bitcoin briefly drops to $6500 but quickly rebound above $7000 even before I could buy the dip, thought it was going to stay below $7K for a few days but it didn't. We can expect to close the year with the price range within $7K-$8K, I guess.

It would be a success on the market if btc closes above $ 7k.
But you have to keep in mind (from a technical analysis point of view) how the next 3 weekly and monthly candles will close, so as to have a clearer idea of the future trend of BTC.

[markus.ackermann89]

👨🏼‍💻 I'm glad that very important members of this forum have commented with great interest on my thread, thank you all for your opinions that obviously I will take into consideration!

[1Referee]

I’m holding no matter how low the price gets. With my luck I’ll sell at the bottom and watch the price go on a bull run. Since I’m in for the long run, I’ll just hold and not sell.

I like how self aware you are. I'm pretty sure that the far majority of the people calling themselves hodlers end up buying high and selling low.

I do however have to point out that it is important to take some profits whenever the market has gone crazy high, which in most cases will result in a firm drop afterwards. It's much better being able to put the money you got from selling into a hype and use it to buy lower. That way your satoshi stack will grow and you benefit even more during the next bull run.

Stacking sats is my main goal and I love to take what weak hands almost donate to me by selling so low.

[BrewMaster]

Yes I could hold my BTC in safe and I would have profit in the long term (2-3 years) but in the meantime what do I do? Which is why I decided to risk 15% of my capital in a trade and 35% of my capital in altcoin (in spot) the remaining 50% I am holding.

that is a good strategy and i am doing the same thing but these percentages are terrible for my taste. the altcoin market has a huge risk compared to bitcoin market thanks to the fact that it is very easy to manipulate it and most altcoin exist only for manipulation and nothing more. on top of all that, whenever bitcoin price makes a sudden move we see a big altcoin dump!
which is why i prefer a much lower percentage of my capital being risked in altcoin market.

[markus.ackermann89]

Yes I could hold my BTC in safe and I would have profit in the long term (2-3 years) but in the meantime what do I do? Which is why I decided to risk 15% of my capital in a trade and 35% of my capital in altcoin (in spot) the remaining 50% I am holding.

that is a good strategy and i am doing the same thing but these percentages are terrible for my taste. the altcoin market has a huge risk compared to bitcoin market thanks to the fact that it is very easy to manipulate it and most altcoin exist only for manipulation and nothing more. on top of all that, whenever bitcoin price makes a sudden move we see a big altcoin dump!
which is why i prefer a much lower percentage of my capital being risked in altcoin market.

I am glad you appreciate my investment strategy.
The reason why I decided to divesify 35% of my capital into altcoins (ETH, LTC, NEO, DODGE, MONERO) becouse I want to hold those crypto for a lot of time (2 years) and sell them for the next Bitcoin's ATH.

[CryptoBry]

When the price begins to drop by $ 100 or 200, negative analyzes begin to appear, panic spreads, FUD, and people begin to sell currencies at prices much lower than their real price.
If the price drops below $ 6,000, this is an excellent opportunity to buy more because you probably won't be able to catch a train the next time and you'll regret selling.
Go back a little bit how much the price was on this day: 2017 (19XXX) 2018 (3XXX) 2019 (6XXX) 2020 (XXXXX)

Instead of making the drop negative, those who have a long-term mindset will use it as a good opportunity to buy cheaper Bitcoin. Then when the market is back in full swing, those who sold theirs will have a big headache since they missed the train big time. I mean this is always the cycle with Bitcoin so there is nothing new really. At the end of the day, those who continue to hold and then add more will be getting the most benefits when the market is going to be back running, jumping and pumping.