❄️ BITCOIN : winter is coming? by 𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓬𝓴𝓿𝓼 𝓡. 𝓐𝓬𝓴𝓮𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓷𝓷 ❄️

[markus.ackermann89]

Here my TA

👨‍💻 My Opinion: if you're wondering what to do now, I don't know. Currently I'm in a long position with 15% of my capital that I have no intention to close even if negative, yes I decided to hodl my position up to the liquidation price ($5,900)!

📊 Why did I decide that?
Because if BTC will dump to test the $6,000 support I will open another long position in order to have the liquidation below $5/4.5k as far as possible from the MA 200 on Weekly TF.

Conclusion:
I hope I don't get to liquidation, but even if I did, I always have a plan B ready. 🥶

Good Luck Markus R. Ackermann

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[hugeblack]

When the price begins to drop by $ 100 or 200, negative analyzes begin to appear, panic spreads, FUD, and people begin to sell currencies at prices much lower than their real price.
If the price drops below $ 6,000, this is an excellent opportunity to buy more because you probably won't be able to catch a train the next time and you'll regret selling.
Go back a little bit how much the price was on this day: 2017 (19XXX) 2018 (3XXX) 2019 (6XXX) 2020 (XXXXX)

[aardvark15]

I could see the price drop to maybe $5000 but if that happens I will just hold what I have and probably add to my position. I still think next year before the halving, Bitcoin’s price will start a gradual increase and just keep going for at least a year.

[markus.ackermann89]

When the price begins to drop by $ 100 or 200, negative analyzes begin to appear, panic spreads, FUD, and people begin to sell currencies at prices much lower than their real price.
If the price drops below $ 6,000, this is an excellent opportunity to buy more because you probably won't be able to catch a train the next time and you'll regret selling.
Go back a little bit how much the price was on this day: 2017 (19XXX) 2018 (3XXX) 2019 (6XXX) 2020 (XXXXX)

I agree 100%, in fact as you can see from the image I put on the thread (link) my BUY ZONES are just above the big supports ($ 6,800 and $ 6,100).

[markus.ackermann89]

I could see the price drop to maybe $5000 but if that happens I will just hold what I have and probably add to my position. I still think next year before the halving, Bitcoin’s price will start a gradual increase and just keep going for at least a year.

You're right, I believe we will never see the BTC price below the MA 200 on the weekly TF.
Having said that, I believe that any BTC buy from now on will be great, since according to my forecast by the end of 2022 btc will reach $ 350,000.
Why am I saying this?

Click here

[justdimin]

I agree that it looks bullish for bitcoin in the future, I don't care what the short term hold (the next couple months) because I feel like after the halving (and maybe even a bit before the halving) the price may end up going up. What people are forgetting that bitcoin cash is the people who have one of the biggest mining operations in the whole world, if not the biggest which means they will try to do whatever they can to hurt bitcoin itself and make people focus on bitcoin cash.

Having said that who would profit from bitcoin dropping down most? These bitcoin cash owners and they may take up some beating and lose money from their mining in order to not increase the price and hurt other miners as well and that may end up causing bitcoin to drop even further. We will have to wait and see.

[joinfree]

This recent dump in the price of bitcoin has made everybody so skeptical about the price of bitcoin. I don't blame them though lol, they are probably the weak hands selling at this low price. This winter is just a quick manipulation of the market by whales who want to accumulate as much as they can before the next break out. Hold your bitcoins people we are yet to see a huge rise soon.

[watergold]

This recent dump in the price of bitcoin has made everybody so skeptical about the price of bitcoin. I don't blame them though lol, they are probably the weak hands selling at this low price. This winter is just a quick manipulation of the market by whales who want to accumulate as much as they can before the next break out. Hold your bitcoins people we are yet to see a huge rise soon.

That is the people who panic they will sell if the price of bitcoin falls deeper that there is no good thought but will lose if this continues for them.
If you hold fast to the belief that bitcoin will grow again there will definitely be more that will approach halving in a few months, I do not know whether this is manipulation by the pope in the winter or not clear the belief in holding bitcoin must exist.

[ChrisPop]

Your chart looks a little bit too congested for me, but everybody has their own analysis and trading style. I know a fact for sure: when you're risking 15% capital and your risk management rule is "waiting for liquidation" to take the position off(in this case - get your position taken away by the exchange) is gambling IMO. I don't want to offend you but you're a newbie and posting your TA here on the forum - my guess is that you're trying to build a following and then shill a paid group. If that's not the case I apologise, but please don't teach other people your risk management principles.

[BitHodler]

It's so easy to talk about a winter that's coming when prices are going down across the whole market. I would have liked to see these threads pop up like a month or two ago, but people were still bullish then.

I think we might be up for a short term bullish reversal with how bearish people currently are. I say short term because we have been tricked before by reversals that a couple of months later turned out to be another lower high.

[markus.ackermann89]

I agree that it looks bullish for bitcoin in the future, I don't care what the short term hold (the next couple months) because I feel like after the halving (and maybe even a bit before the halving) the price may end up going up. What people are forgetting that bitcoin cash is the people who have one of the biggest mining operations in the whole world, if not the biggest which means they will try to do whatever they can to hurt bitcoin itself and make people focus on bitcoin cash.

Having said that who would profit from bitcoin dropping down most? These bitcoin cash owners and they may take up some beating and lose money from their mining in order to not increase the price and hurt other miners as well and that may end up causing bitcoin to drop even further. We will have to wait and see.

This is the right way to think!
Since my long position at $9.5k failed with stoploss at 9.2k, I knew very well that BTC would go down but I didn't dare to enter in a short position for many reasons.

Is this the right time to strike Long?
I don't know for sure, what I do know is that, BTC can bounce at any moment.

[markus.ackermann89]

This recent dump in the price of bitcoin has made everybody so skeptical about the price of bitcoin. I don't blame them though lol, they are probably the weak hands selling at this low price. This winter is just a quick manipulation of the market by whales who want to accumulate as much as they can before the next break out. Hold your bitcoins people we are yet to see a huge rise soon.

Exactly, in fact many of my friends and followers have entered a short position even though I have never advised against doing so.

And as you said this is just manipulation, this is confirmed by the +10% made in the last 24h

Who bought for $ 6.5k is the luckiest man on earth?

[figmentofmyass]

Here my TA

👨‍💻 My Opinion: if you're wondering what to do now, I don't know. Currently I'm in a long position with 15% of my capital that I have no intention to close even if negative, yes I decided to hodl my position up to the liquidation price ($5,900)!

📊 Why did I decide that?
Because if BTC will dump to test the $6,000 support I will open another long position in order to have the liquidation below $5/4.5k as far as possible from the MA 200 on Weekly TF.

Conclusion:
I hope I don't get to liquidation, but even if I did, I always have a plan B ready. 🥶

we need to officially break this 6-month downtrend before it's safe to margin long IMO. the downtrend line is ~$9k, and to form a weekly higher high we need to break $10350 (bitstamp).

good luck though. i respect your courage and i hope you're right. the trade is just too risky for my taste, especially considering your own TA is pointing to the $4000s.

[markus.ackermann89]

This recent dump in the price of bitcoin has made everybody so skeptical about the price of bitcoin. I don't blame them though lol, they are probably the weak hands selling at this low price. This winter is just a quick manipulation of the market by whales who want to accumulate as much as they can before the next break out. Hold your bitcoins people we are yet to see a huge rise soon.

That is the people who panic they will sell if the price of bitcoin falls deeper that there is no good thought but will lose if this continues for them.
If you hold fast to the belief that bitcoin will grow again there will definitely be more that will approach halving in a few months, I do not know whether this is manipulation by the pope in the winter or not clear the belief in holding bitcoin must exist.

The advice I give to my investors at this time is as follows:
- When you open a position, don't think to do trading in the short term, think of the long term (over 3 months).
- Before opening a position, decide whether to play it with Stop Loss or liquidation. (calculate the risk and how much you are willing to lose for your idea)
- If you want to enter in spot now do it quietly.
- If you want to enter in margin, do it with a low leverage, maximum 3x.
- BTC will not die now, trust in technology and people's desire to earn money!

[markus.ackermann89]

Your chart looks a little bit too congested for me, but everybody has their own analysis and trading style. I know a fact for sure: when you're risking 15% capital and your risk management rule is "waiting for liquidation" to take the position off(in this case - get your position taken away by the exchange) is gambling IMO. I don't want to offend you but you're a newbie and posting your TA here on the forum - my guess is that you're trying to build a following and then shill a paid group. If that's not the case I apologise, but please don't teach other people your risk management principles.

I appreciate your opinion, it is true that I am a new member of this forum but I have a lot of experience in trading, and if you see my previous posts on Twitter and my Telegram Channel you will notice that my predictions are based not only on technical analysis but also on on fundamental analysis and psychological analysis of investors (positive / negative sentimentalism).

The truth is that, 90% of "btc traders" do not know what they do therefore they follow the mass (gambling) but I only follow my plans even though I know that there are more experienced people than me but I know for sure I have a rational reason to say or do a determined action.
My plan is based on the possible BTC trand, I put a small percentage of my capital because I am willing to lose a little of my capital but I'm sure that in the long term I will be repaid by my investment.

[markus.ackermann89]

It's so easy to talk about a winter that's coming when prices are going down across the whole market. I would have liked to see these threads pop up like a month or two ago, but people were still bullish then.

I think we might be up for a short term bullish reversal with how bearish people currently are. I say short term because we have been tricked before by reversals that a couple of months later turned out to be another lower high.

Absolutely! My joke is enough for the fact that BTC can still go down to $ 4.5k and then go up again (no further, it would break the trand line it has been maintaining for years) in that case the come back up would always be longer towards a new ATH.
These days many of my friends ad followers were worried about their positions, instead while I was subject to a great loss in my long position, I didn't close the position and I spent my days very quietly.
Why?
For the simple fact that if BTC had touched my strategic liquidation it would have gone down to 4.5k and I would have bought the best long ever.

[markus.ackermann89]

Here my TA

👨‍💻 My Opinion: if you're wondering what to do now, I don't know. Currently I'm in a long position with 15% of my capital that I have no intention to close even if negative, yes I decided to hodl my position up to the liquidation price ($5,900)!

📊 Why did I decide that?
Because if BTC will dump to test the $6,000 support I will open another long position in order to have the liquidation below $5/4.5k as far as possible from the MA 200 on Weekly TF.

Conclusion:
I hope I don't get to liquidation, but even if I did, I always have a plan B ready. 🥶

we need to officially break this 6-month downtrend before it's safe to margin long IMO. the downtrend line is ~$9k, and to form a weekly higher high we need to break $10350 (bitstamp).

good luck though. i respect your courage and i hope you're right. the trade is just too risky for my taste, especially considering your own TA is pointing to the $4000s.

I agree with your idea but personally I would feel safer to buy now than in a strong bullrun with possible market overload as happened to me in the past, I am trying to buy as low as possible for this reason and not for greed with desire to earn as much as possible.

[pooya87]

"winter is coming" is a euphemism for when you expect a long and harsh bear market not when you think a tiny drop may happen in a market situation that you can not predict at all. in other words you can only call it winter if you expect $3000 and below to be reached!

otherwise staying around $7k and a drop to $6k levels is not "winter".
also as you can see the worst case scenario with all the manipulation over the past 48 hours was $6425 before the price shot up back to $7450!
most importantly this is NOT something you can predict with TA.

[markus.ackermann89]

"winter is coming" is a euphemism for when you expect a long and harsh bear market not when you think a tiny drop may happen in a market situation that you can not predict at all. in other words you can only call it winter if you expect $3000 and below to be reached!

otherwise staying around $7k and a drop to $6k levels is not "winter".
also as you can see the worst case scenario with all the manipulation over the past 48 hours was $6425 before the price shot up back to $7450!
most importantly this is NOT something you can predict with TA.

My comment "Winter is coming" is intended in the event that BTC dump over $ 6k (Bitcoin's biggest long-term support).
Technical analysis helps a lot to predict the possible supports and resistances, and therefore I will only consider the point where BTC could stop to go up again.
As I said in a previous comment, despite my current situation (in loss) I am very confident that the BTC down trand will end by the end of January.

[figmentofmyass]

we need to officially break this 6-month downtrend before it's safe to margin long IMO. the downtrend line is ~$9k, and to form a weekly higher high we need to break $10350 (bitstamp).

good luck though. i respect your courage and i hope you're right. the trade is just too risky for my taste, especially considering your own TA is pointing to the $4000s.

I agree with your idea but personally I would feel safer to buy now than in a strong bullrun with possible market overload as happened to me in the past, I am trying to buy as low as possible for this reason and not for greed with desire to earn as much as possible.

i'm not saying to wait until the actual blow-off top (like last june) before leveraging long. i'm just saying that it's very risky to leverage long into a downtrend. i only long strong uptrends and short strong downtrends. everything else is for spot trading, where i can ride out choppy range markets and drawdowns without risking too much capital.

$5k-$8k seems like a smart accumulation zone for spot BTC---and i am putting my fiat money back into the market at these levels. leverage is a whole different animal though.

to each his own. different strokes for different folks.....