Are we heading towards Recession?

[awik p]

it's possible, because the current economic situation is very difficult, not only in a country almost all countries feel it, this is like a currency that suddenly reduced drastically, for example many companies are reducing the number of employees.
I don't know if this will be sustainable.
but we must see the changes brought about by this recession.

indeed economic development suffered a setback which is experienced by most countries. I think reducing the number of employees is only one way to overcome it. but we can see that the state is certainly trying to improve its economic situation, and I don't think this is going to be sustainable, there will certainly be a way out. trade wars are one of the causes of economic setbacks

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[Bitcoin_bullish]

I haven't seen common joes talk about a looming recession this much before. Probably a sign that we're not even remotely close to a recession.

During previous recessions people were in denial, just like how the mainstream media was in denial. This time it's completely different (the opposite), which I am actually happy with because I don't want to see recession take place. Recession isn't good for Bitcoin so please stop dreaming about that. It's not a safe haven asset and probably won't be for a long time.

If people want to see Bitcoin do well, we need to have the largest economies in the world do well. The more confidence there is the more speculative capital will enter Bitcoin's market.

Noone wants a recession, but it is unavoidable. This is how the capitalist economic system works, it is not something you can say "won't happen" especially after ten years of economic boom. It might not be a fierce one, as the one in '08, still the economic circles don't go on forever. Looking back in history ten years are too much and we are basically in an overextended circle of bullish momentum and lately panic buying.
A recession occurs when we have two consequentive quarters of negative economic growth, so when we talk about recession we don't mean a deep one as in 2008 or a devastating one as the Great Depression in 1929.

A few signs of an economic bubble and beginning of recession:
- Over-pumped stocks that are using fresh printed money to perform buy-backs. Buy-backs are a sign that too much money exist in an economy and the private sector can't find a useful way to invest them. This happens only at the top of a bubble in this scale.
https://bit.ly/2MF1U8l
https://bit.ly/2SHLW0W

 - Unemployment levels in the US are the lowest ever, and wages rising at high rates
https://bit.ly/2MDrfzD
https://bit.ly/2SwsTXA
https://bit.ly/2QygsaY

 - Debt in the US is the highest ever :
 - Debt/GDP at 106% (And somehow economy still retains triple-A ratings by Moodies, S&P and the rest)
https://bit.ly/2sts2Mw
https://bit.ly/2QrBicd

Deliquences are at the lowest levels in the last 20 years.
https://www.mba.org/2019-press-releases/november/mortgage-delinquencies-fall-to-lowest-level-in-nearly-25-years

All the above are indicators have maxed out and are about to deteriorate. We don't know when they will, this is the problem that we can never know how much they can prolong the bubble. I'd say no more than two years judging from charts and other economies observations.
The more they pump it the worst it will be when it pops, so I'm hoping for recession to begin in the next quarter.

There are other signs as well and another good indicator is the one you already mentioned:
Denial. When people don't even consider recession is likely to happen and they are surprised when someone mentions the term.
There are more people today than in 2007, that are aware of how economies work and they are being cautious, but this is not the majority. Most people don't even have a clue what is going on or what is the GDP growth or unemployment levels.

I give an extremely low chance for the US to avoid recession until the end of 2021. I'm sorry but it is just 1%.

About BTC I will just say that it is not tested yet in a recession, so there is no chart or anything else to analyze.
Will anyone trust Bitcoin with his wealth against a rapid economic collapse or even a small scaled recession in fear of their assets being devaluated?
It remains to be seen.

[Amel]

it's possible, because the current economic situation is very difficult, not only in a country almost all countries feel it, this is like a currency that suddenly reduced drastically, for example many companies are reducing the number of employees.
I don't know if this will be sustainable.
but we must see the changes brought about by this recession.

indeed economic development suffered a setback which is experienced by most countries. I think reducing the number of employees is only one way to overcome it. but we can see that the state is certainly trying to improve its economic situation, and I don't think this is going to be sustainable, there will certainly be a way out. trade wars are one of the causes of economic setbacks

That's right dude. This was clearly caused by the trade war yesterday so that economic conditions are very unstable now. The main hope is now in each country, how they recover this economic condition, if the US act again this could be a real nightmare and boomerang for the US itself in the economic sector.

[whyrqa]

it's possible, because the current economic situation is very difficult, not only in a country almost all countries feel it, this is like a currency that suddenly reduced drastically, for example many companies are reducing the number of employees.
I don't know if this will be sustainable.
but we must see the changes brought about by this recession.

indeed economic development suffered a setback which is experienced by most countries. I think reducing the number of employees is only one way to overcome it. but we can see that the state is certainly trying to improve its economic situation, and I don't think this is going to be sustainable, there will certainly be a way out. trade wars are one of the causes of economic setbacks

That's right dude. This was clearly caused by the trade war yesterday so that economic conditions are very unstable now. The main hope is now in each country, how they recover this economic condition, if the US act again this could be a real nightmare and boomerang for the US itself in the economic sector.

Of course, the whole situation may end badly for the United States of America, but since the US government has always sought to influence not only the political, but also the economic situation in those countries that are in the field of view of their interests, this Boomerang may affect half the world,  including the whole of Europe, not just America.

[Sahyadri]

If you look at the global numbers you will see that the economic slowdown was cyclic in nature and in most of the countries it has started correcting itself. Gdp and growth numbers are getting back on track. Because of the US China trade war and brexit this cyclic economic slowdown got a bit intensified and it took a bit more time to correct. But things are getting better now.
So, no according to me we are not heading towards the recession.

[bitbunnny]

Many economy and financial experts agree that new financial crisis is coming. To be honest, that is expected because crisis appear almost regulary iniand cycles and it many cases it could be predicted or at least recgonize the actions and situations in the global economy system  that lead to crisis.
However, it's hard to determine exact moment when crisis or recession.will start.
Anyway, it's always good to be prepared and cryptocurrencies are one the ways that can help to make crisis easier to handle.

[CodyAlfaridzi]

Are we heading towards recession like 2008 wherein people have cut down their spendings and companies are laying off their employees, we can see cost-cutting everywhere, is it really a recession or just the panic about an uncertain future which is creating a gloomy atmosphere everywhere?

I'm not sure, well nobody can be sure about it but yeah a lot of indicators are saying we are heading to another recession. But it won't be as bad as 2008 though because 2008 was a total mess and I don't see any cause that would bring us to 2008-like recession. The best way you can do now is just preparing for it. Manage your portfolio from now, set up an emergency fund, prepare for the recession that might come.

[CarnagexD]

If you look at the global numbers you will see that the economic slowdown was cyclic in nature and in most of the countries it has started correcting itself. Gdp and growth numbers are getting back on track. Because of the US China trade war and brexit this cyclic economic slowdown got a bit intensified and it took a bit more time to correct. But things are getting better now.
So, no according to me we are not heading towards the recession.

The economic slow down is mainly affected by the US-China trade war due to international operations that has been stopped because of the current conflict which resulted to a massive decline in many countries.
Nope it's not getting better now, it becomes severe now. Having that said, signs of recession can be seen by now on which I think can be cured and prevented to happen in some ways.

[abhiseshakana]

The economic slow down is mainly affected by the US-China trade war due to international operations that has been stopped because of the current conflict which resulted to a massive decline in many countries.
Nope it's not getting better now, it becomes severe now. Having that said, signs of recession can be seen by now on which I think can be cured and prevented to happen in some ways.

If external factors are a major contributor to a country's economic growth, then a country must worry about the American and Chinese trade wars. If exports contribute a small amount to a country's gross domestic product, the impact of trade wars can be minimized. In addition, the global recession will greatly affect a country if the ratio of credit to domestic products is high.

GDP = consumption + investment + government expenditure + (export - import)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product


Each government has the formula to fend off the possibility of a recession in their country adapted to the economic conditions of a country. If the government has no anticipatory steps, the domestic political situation will become unstable and will only make a country prone to an economic recession. In my opinion, investment is a component of GDP that can be boosted. Increased investment must be supported by investment efficiency which must be supported by a good ICOR score.

ICOR is a parameter that describes the amount of additional capital needed to produce one unit of output. In other words, the higher the ICOR score, the more inefficient investment means. If the investment is more efficient, the impact on economic growth will be more pronounced. Increased investment means increased employment available.

[beerlover]

Considering the economy has been stable for a long time and even under Trump the companies have shown the best side of them instead of the greedy one we all know they are, they want another reelection of Trump, after that we all know he can't be elected a third time so on his second term all the worse will come out.

Now, this could be considered a phony allegation because right now there is nothing backing it up but we have seen companies laying off people and claiming to made profits, which tells you if they didn't laid off thousands of people they would have profited all the same but less profits, so they exchanged more profits (instead of small profits, not instead of loss) to thousands of jobs. In his second term there won't be any need to show any profits so I assume IF there is a recession that is when it will happen.

[Xxmodded]

If you look at the global numbers you will see that the economic slowdown was cyclic in nature and in most of the countries it has started correcting itself. Gdp and growth numbers are getting back on track. Because of the US China trade war and brexit this cyclic economic slowdown got a bit intensified and it took a bit more time to correct. But things are getting better now.
So, no according to me we are not heading towards the recession.

The economic slow down is mainly affected by the US-China trade war due to international operations that has been stopped because of the current conflict which resulted to a massive decline in many countries.
Nope it's not getting better now, it becomes severe now. Having that said, signs of recession can be seen by now on which I think can be cured and prevented to happen in some ways.

Bad efefct after conflict between China and United State, they have make many countries must faced economic crisis in their country, but big fault with many countries why have depend their economic with both country between China and United State, I hope many president around the world stop using USD and move using bitcoin as payment currency at the future and never have anything effect when USD have lower or higher price.

[senne]

Are we heading towards recession like 2008 wherein people have cut down their spendings and companies are laying off their employees, we can see cost-cutting everywhere, is it really a recession or just the panic about an uncertain future which is creating a gloomy atmosphere everywhere?

One of the leading indicator to recession is the inversion of the yield curve. That happened many a times this year. But is that fool proof indicator? The answer is no. It isn't. Historically, all the recessions were preceded by the yield curve inversion but vice a versa is not true. If you look at global market scenario in the last quarter, you can see that the situation is getting better.
So according to me, no we aren't headed towards recession.

[1Referee]

Considering the economy has been stable for a long time and even under Trump the companies have shown the best side of them instead of the greedy one we all know they are, they want another reelection of Trump, after that we all know he can't be elected a third time so on his second term all the worse will come out.

I don't think it's related to Trump at all. The economy was on its way up before Trump was elected, but as always, the sitting president gets the credits for everything good that's happening with the economy. Similarly, I'm pretty sure that the next president during the implosion of the debt bubble will be blamed for that even though it's not the president's fault at all.

I honestly don't believe any president is capable of changing anything about how the system works and heads down with more debt every single year. It requires a change in the core structure of the monetary system. With the same people making the rules, how likely is it that a change is going to happen? Decades of evidence we have to know that it is not likely at all that something is going to change.

[Negotiation]

I do not think we are going into recession because of the recession that occurs when our country's economy is disrupted But now our country has improved a lot more than before and the economic situation is far ahead, but the evil is getting worse And let's face it the more that the financial crisis is coming the less it will be.

[LUCKMCFLY]

~snip~

I have read many articles and news about it, resounding the negative interests already informed by the Fed, trade war between the US and China, the global economy based on the hegemony of the dollar based on a large debt, all this at some point will certainly collapse.

But there is a great opportunity, there are the safe refuge values ​​that are Bitcoin and Gold, as long as they continue with the printing of cash bills, inflation will continue to increase, comparing it from an inflationary point of view, bitcoin would be the best option even above gold, but gold has its weight throughout history, being the protagonist to get out of economic crises.

You can not determine why, but some information says that in 2008 it was the fault of the bank and the next one will be too, it can happen from a debt of fraudulent mortgage bonds to the slightest, something must blame a possible recession, what Better for now is to have bitcoin in Hodl mode or own gold, physical or in shares.

[NathanJB]

Are we heading towards recession like 2008 wherein people have cut down their spendings and companies are laying off their employees, we can see cost-cutting everywhere, is it really a recession or just the panic about an uncertain future which is creating a gloomy atmosphere everywhere?

Where does this question come from? Is this some feeling within your country? From my end, I am not feeling that a recession will be coming soon, at least not a worldwide one. The atmosphere is pretty much the same.

I wonder, would recession still be a constant in our economy if we are already using Bitcoin?

[Distinctin]

Are we heading towards recession like 2008 wherein people have cut down their spendings and companies are laying off their employees, we can see cost-cutting everywhere, is it really a recession or just the panic about an uncertain future which is creating a gloomy atmosphere everywhere?

Where does this question come from? Is this some feeling within your country? From my end, I am not feeling that a recession will be coming soon, at least not a worldwide one. The atmosphere is pretty much the same.

I wonder, would recession still be a constant in our economy if we are already using Bitcoin?

Nothing will change even we use Bitcoin. The economic growth of a certain place or in a country will be the reason why many companies will struggle to lay off their employees. I believe that not all are suffering this one, it was just an isolated case cause there is no such thing happening in our place. And I hope it won't.

[el kaka22]

Recession in global terms is already happening slow by slow and that is why we are not really "feeling" it as we live on a regular day.

Everything is more and more expensive every single year yet our wages are not that high anymore, jobs are sent overseas and some jobs are getting more automated by robots as well so the world is living in a situation where only the jobs that humans can have to do right there on the spot will be left which will be less and less jobs while things are getting more and more expensive to make more profits for the shareholders of a company.

The mean average increase of salaries have been negative compared to 40 years ago (what you could purchase with your salary back then versus now) and unless that is recovered we are just frogs that are boiled slowly and die.

[meliodas]

We still cannot tell if we are heading to recession because the market trend for the overall cryptocurrency market is still hard to identify because we are in a critical levels. The only thing that we should do right now is to be prepared and do not panic when the recession hits and also like what Warren Buffet says, be greedy when others are fearful. Apply that saying when we experience the recession to grab the opportunity by buying cheap but good valued cryptos.

[abhiseshakana]

Recession in global terms is already happening slow by slow and that is why we are not really "feeling" it as we live on a regular day.

Everything is more and more expensive every single year yet our wages are not that high anymore, jobs are sent overseas and some jobs are getting more automated by robots as well so the world is living in a situation where only the jobs that humans can have to do right there on the spot will be left which will be less and less jobs while things are getting more and more expensive to make more profits for the shareholders of a company.

The mean average increase of salaries have been negative compared to 40 years ago (what you could purchase with your salary back then versus now) and unless that is recovered we are just frogs that are boiled slowly and die.

Follow the development of technology is a must. Technological developments can make it easier for humans to carry out daily activities. Even in the future, there will be many activities that can be done without humans.

The fundamental question going forward is "what are people going to do?" In the coming year, the human population will increase, the working class will also be more numerous, but employment is limited because of the robot and AI technology. Almost now everything can be done by using robot technology AI (artificial intelligence). Employment that is manual, repetitive is very easily replaced by robots and affected by automation

The world will see the transition that occurred in the early 1900s when most of the global industry shifted from agriculture to factory jobs, but the industrial revolution that will occur is that the manufacturing sector switches to computer technology.

So to answer these concerns there are two things we can do

1. prepare to face the industrial revolution 4.0 by developing competencies in ourselves and those closest to us
2. To deal with higher prices, can start by abandoning the use of fiat money and turning to gold and silver (dinars and dirhams) to avoid the continuing adverse effects of inflation

Human Resource Development (HR) is very important in dealing with the development of digital technology so that HR is always able to compete. The government must be able to develop human resources that have analytical work through a process of creativity and complex problem-solving. Robots can replace our brains, but they cannot replace our humanity.

So emotional intelligence-based education is needed to beat the value of plus AI (intelligence quotient). memorizing work, memorization will be very easily replaced by artificial intelligence and will be very difficult to match the IQ of the robot

Education needs to be able to hone skills that are not only cognitive but also hone sensitivity, taste, and creativity. It is hoped that by combining all of these expertise, HR can solve complex and complex problems that require handling not only by intelligence but also empathy and innovation.