I might be wrong in just looking at fundamentals.

[Bitcoin_bullish]

I tend to look at fundamentals, and base my investment decisions on those, but I think I may be missing out. Take stocks for example. There prices don't reflect profitability or asset values, and most companies seem to be laded with debt. But the central banks keeps printing money to buy their shares and push up the prices. Obviously this can't go on for ever, and the stock market will have to dump, but that is politically unsound, so maybe I should be exploiting the price manipulation in the short term.

The reverse seems to be true of Bitcoin. This seems to have strong fundamentals, but the price is constantly being weakened by manipulation. It is rumoured that Ripple could take over from Swift, and public awareness of this could push up the price of Bitcoin andother ctyptos,so maybe I should keep out of the stock market.

Stocks are in a bubble. All the trillions printed are focused on pumping stocks at parabolic levels. Perhaps they want to imitate Bitcoin's growth and bubble circles. There are quite few signs for the stock bubble. Just look what is happening.
- Buy backs
- Youtubers trading stocks live with Robinhood
- Robinhood itself
- Panic buying and using loans to buy stocks
- Every company wants to rush with an IPO before it is too late
It is a huge bubble that will burst soon. We can't be exactly sure when it breaks but I give it maximum two more years.

What you are saying about Bitcoin is not what is happening though. Bitcoin in 2019 is performing way better from what we expected. I don't care much for it's price before adoption. Instead I'd prefer reading more news about Bitcoin being accepted in malls and legalized in modern cities instead of price movement.

About Ripple I always thought of them as a tech and financial company that belongs in Wall Street. They have a decent structure of a modern financial company. They created XRP, somehow managed to bring it up even to 5$ and are trying to offload their one hundred billion tokens bag ever since.
I don't care much about Ripple and they don't have much to offer as cryptocurrency. They can offer a lot more at the banking sector and they should actually rush the IPO they are thinking about.

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[odolvlobo]

Gold is different. If the price drops then production drops. If the price rises, then production rises. Bitcoin production is the same regardless of the price.

production doesnt stop.
bitcoin mining farms and gold mining quarrys have long term contracts
gold has land leases and year contracts of employment
bitcoin has facility leases and electric supply contracts
...

Nothing you wrote addresses the fact that gold is different because if the price drops then production drops and if the price rises, then production rises, whereas Bitcoin production is the same regardless of the price.

And I do know the difference between price and value: they measure the same thing, but value is subjective and price is objective.

[franky1]

And I do know the difference between price and value: they measure the same thing,

ok well you continue on your one view and ill continue on my multiple angled view

but one day when your buying a cucumber and thinking the retail price is the real value/cost of a cucumber.. well i hope you later become a grocery store stock manager and realise that what the consumer sees is not the real cost/value. they see the profit/speculation price of what the retailer thinks they can get away with selling it for.. whilst the stockmanager sees the lower cost value

but until then enjoy only viewing the retail price and think the retail price has the only meaning

meanwhile others will see the entire supply chain and the stuff that happens behind the scenes

enjoy

just remember cucumber farmers dont just stop mid season because a retail store is having a half price discount day

what your not seeing is that a farmers 20cent cucumber is sold retail for 60cents. and when they have a discount day of 30cents the farmer is still getting his 20 cents to cover his farming costs.

i hope one day you see the market price is not the same as cost. but it doesnt look like you can see it today
(pre-empting next rebuttle of cucumber analogy
dont speculate the actions of the 100,000 hobby farmers with just one acre who have costs of 30cents+.. who stop supplying retailers
concentrate on the 1000 industrial farmers who have the 1000acres each who can afford 20cents who continue farming every season no matter what)

[odolvlobo]

And I do know the difference between price and value: they measure the same thing,

ok well you continue on your one view and ill continue on my multiple angled view
...

I'm not going to address your cucumber analogy because it is all just a bunch of statements with no point. I believe you are trying to make a point there, but you never get around to it.

Your problem is that you believe that you are smart and everyone else is stupid. So, you rant and you rave and you don't care what anyone else thinks. You don't listen because you don't care.

[franky1]

i do listen. but your point is that all you want to look at is the market price. and all you scenario out is the hobby miners that get emotional.

by the way. by me not giving hugs and not kissing ass and you assuming i should hug and kiss strangers. just shows that maybe you make decisions based on emotions. and maybe, just maybe your not willing to open your mind to the  facts of the details presented but go against the facts because you have been emotionally triggered negatively.

as it has been shown, you have totally not even considered the industrial mining which is the majority of mining, nor their costs, nor their long term contracts meaning they cant stop even if the tried
they have to plan and prep expansion or reduction months ahead, not based on a daily, hourly whim of emotion

so here is another point
hobby miners pay electric as its used. they pay at the end of the month for what was used.
so switching off saves them money
however, industrial miners PRE-BUY allotments of electric requirement per month/year to get good discount
EG
XGW for january 2020-january2021
and pay upfront. (good discount that way)
meaning if they turned off their asics. they are not saving money. infact its costing them more money to stop. because they already paid it and need to recoup costs by mining.

they plan their expansions and their energy requirements months ahead

industrial mining is not the same as hobby mining
but you have to understand the things behind the scenes.

oh and same goes for gold.
if a gold miner is paying $1m to lease land to mine on. and $X00k for the excavators and sluice machines, and $x0k for the water permits for the year... guess what. not mining the land does not save them any funds
go watch tv shows like 'gold rush' .. when they stop for a few hours for maintenance, they are not cheering that they are saving money. they are trying to get back up and running as fast as possible because each hour is costing them money
and yes they prebuy fuel in fuel trucks already delivered at the location so its not even saving them fuel. as they already bought it.(same as bitcoin mining already buying electric)

but hey if you wanna stick with just the emotions of the market price and having no clue where real value is, you carry on

[odolvlobo]

i do listen. but your point is that all you want to look at is the market price. and all you scenario out is the hobby miners that get emotional.
...
as it has been shown, you have totally not even considered the industrial mining which is the majority of mining, nor their costs, nor their long term contracts meaning they cant stop even if the tried
they have to plan and prep expansion or reduction months ahead, not based on a daily, hourly whim of emotion

so here is another point
hobby miners pay electric as its used. so switching off saves them money
industrial miners buy allotments of electric requirement per month/year to get good discount
EG
XGW for january 2020-january2021
and pay upfront. (good discount that way)
meaning if they turned off their asics. they are not saving money. infact its costing them more money to stop. because they already paid it and need to recoup costs by mining.

industrial mining is not the same as hobby mining
but you have to understand the things behind the scenes.

oh and same goes for gold.
if a gold miner is paying $1m to lease land to mine on. and $X00k for the excavators and sluice machines, and $x0k for the water permits for the year... guess what. not mining the land does not save them any funds

go watch tv shows like 'gold rush' .. when they stop for a few hours for maintenance, they are not cheering that they are saving money. they are trying to get back up and running as fast as possible because each hour is costing them money
and yes they prebuy fuel in fuel trucks already delivered at the location so its not even saving them fuel. as they already bought it.(same as bitcoin mining already buying electric)

but hey if you wanna stick with just the emotions of the market price and having no clue where real value is, you carry on

I never claimed that miners turn their equipment on or off based on daily fluctuations in the price. Obviously, miners with long term contracts will keep mining when the price drops in order to reduce their losses, but not after the contracts have expired (and not if the variable costs are more than the revenue). In the end, price is a factor in whether a miner continues mining or not, maybe not in the short term, but certainly in the long term.  Gold miners and cucumber farmers face those same issues, but unlike Bitcoin, choosing to mine/farm or not affects overall production.

[franky1]

I never claimed that miners turn their equipment on or off based on daily fluctuations in the price. Obviously, miners with long term contracts will keep mining when the price drops in order to reduce their losses, but not after the contracts have expired (and not if the variable costs are more than the revenue). In the end, price is a factor in whether a miner continues mining or not, maybe not in the short term, but certainly in the long term.  Gold miners and cucumber farmers face those same issues, but unlike Bitcoin, choosing to mine/farm or not affects overall production.

again. the market price is a higher number than industrial miners cost.
sorry it just is.
if you charted out all the costs of the most efficient miners(the industrial ones) (AKA the majority) you will see that the price never goes below that cost.

industrial miners do not care for the whims of hourly/daily price changes. it does not impact them.
sorry it just doesnt
industrial miners concern is more about the share of blocksolves. not the price

if you could please just put the hobby miner scenario to the side. store it in a box. throw the box into landfill and stop thinking about it for just a little time. and instead think about the industrial miners(the majority) you might actually start grasping the real world scenario of the underlying support value line

..
but if you really want to grab hold and hug tightly the hobby miner scenario.. here is one for you
if it costs a hobby miner $8k COST while the price is $7.3k. the hobby miner will stop mining and instead will BUY bitcoin at $7.3k.
thus they help push up the price.
AND
because hobbyists are not mining more share of a blockreward gets given to the industrial miners. meaning they get more profit

this is why hobby miners are categorised as speculative area above the value line and not a factor for consideration of the underlying support cost/value

but hey.. ill leave you with your 2 dimensional views that price is the only factor
i can lead a horse to water but i cant make it drink

have a good day