Simulation/Machine Learning Effects on Gambling

[Hydrogen]

As far as I know, its not AI or machine learning based. Its more like data mining coupled with an algorithm that weighs values and statistics.

There have been reports of fantasy sports players in fanduel and draftkings turning profits using this method for years:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2015/12/23/from-boston-penthouse-world-best-fantasy-player-plunges-into-startup-world/QHNpLh0O3QMyUDqTd4t27N/story.html

As one poster mentioned in an earlier post, there was a high profile story published on bloomberg about a horse racing gambler who was claimed to have made millions utilizing this method:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

[DarkDays]

I really don't think that AI is going to have a detrimental effect on the gambling industry for at least a decade or so, which is when AI will become powerful enough to practically eliminate personal advantages in games of skill (and luck) such as Poker.

However, I do think that it will lead to the development of another type of game, one where the player plays a game of skill against an AI of different difficulty levels. If you beat the AI, you multiply your wager. Of course there will need to be a system in place to prevent you using an even stronger AI to beat this one, but that's another issue entirely.

[Naida_BR]

If gamblers are going to use AI in order to increase their profitability, casinos are going to do so as well.
And casinos are going to do it more effectively... I wouldn't consider it as illegal when both counterparts are using them...

[DoublerHunter]

That is not AI I guess, I found this article that discussed about cracking of horse racing code algorithm and probably that was mean by the OP. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20865312. If that is cracking the code of any gambling feature, I am sure that it is illegal and against the TOS of the site. There are a lot of smart and genius hackers who will try to hack any code of gambling sites but it won't work for long term.

[justdimin]

Wherever the random mechanism is not involved, you may go for simulating using available past data to predict the future's outcome. Unlike horse racing, most crypto gambling games are based on random number generation and due to this, I guess we may not for making use of simulators. Each day is different in crypto gambling as we could not figure out any relations between results; purely randomized things.

I guess making use of AI either in software tools or in manual will not be breaching any of legal things in my country. Not sure about what is the stand of most other countries on this simulation/AI.

[dothebeats]

AFAIK these things really exist. They just gather the information that they can get from all participants in the horse racing competition, get each individual's H2H match-up against every competitor in the game and create a list of possible scenarios in which a particular horse would race up against different horses at a given time. It gives you the probability of your horse winning, to what margin and what place would that horse finds itself in against every other horse within the race. It's easy to device though kinda tricky if you integrate machine learning and AI to it as it needs a lot of tweaking to be done and for damn sure it's an expensive piece of software for bettors.

[Shinpako09]

Let's say this thing really exist, if this thing really works, this should be popular. Right? because money is involved and most wants an easy money. How can the AI analyze the situation? Since this is also a sport it's better to gather info about track records of horse and jockey rather than relying on AI. Therefore, using it in other kind of gambling is non sense because game like dice rely on luck.

If ever I have this thing and it really works. Why would I bother to sell it and explain myself to others how it works if I can make more than the price of this thing.

[maydna]

If gamblers are going to use AI in order to increase their profitability, casinos are going to do so as well.
And casinos are going to do it more effectively... I wouldn't consider it as illegal when both counterparts are using them...

I am sure casinos will prevent them from winning by creating software, or even they will use Ai too to block the member from trying to win using AI. I am sure that the casino can build AI with easy because they have money to create or hire a high-skills programmer to help them.

The casino will not let the player use a cheat way to win the games because if many gamblers trying to win and they succeed in getting the win money, the casinos will not online for a long time, and they will close their business.

[shoreno]

If gamblers are going to use AI in order to increase their profitability, casinos are going to do so as well.
And casinos are going to do it more effectively... I wouldn't consider it as illegal when both counterparts are using them...

I am sure casinos will prevent them from winning by creating software, or even they will use Ai too to block the member from trying to win using AI. I am sure that the casino can build AI with easy because they have money to create or hire a high-skills programmer to help them.

The casino will not let the player use a cheat way to win the games because if many gamblers trying to win and they succeed in getting the win money, the casinos will not online for a long time, and they will close their business.

cheat ? i dont think its possible . casinos have high security to detect those will trying to cheat thier system  and not all gamblers can do that  . most gamblers are just regular people that dont do cheats or hacks but they just play the legal way   .

its not also good if the casino will cheat thier players because that only shows that they are fraud and not legit  but who will do that anyway  ? if cheating can make them go down they cant earn more profit in the long run   .

[maydna]

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cheat ? i dont think its possible . casinos have high security to detect those will trying to cheat thier system  and not all gamblers can do that  . most gamblers are just regular people that dont do cheats or hacks but they just play the legal way   .

its not also good if the casino will cheat thier players because that only shows that they are fraud and not legit  but who will do that anyway  ? if cheating can make them go down they cant earn more profit in the long run   .

I think so, but some gamblers can cheat the system, and that is not a secret. We all know that not all gamblers are regular people, and some of them have skills in the programming language, and that can make them test the security system on that gambling site. But as you said, if they can break the security, in the end, the casino will know, and they will close the hole so they can not cheat anymore.

The casino will think twice to cheat their players because if they do that, they will lose trust from their players, and they will not have many players that play the games and stay in their site.

[ChrisPop]

Once/If these Artificial Intelligence programs are real and will be exploited and shared between retailers as well then that might be the end of the horse racing betting or/and other sports betting as well. If the bookie is not making money, then why keep the shop open? I do think that there will be rules imposed if there aren't, but the issue is how can someone prove that an individual used a software to analyse the data and come up with the most probable outcome?

[TheUltraElite]

I think so, but some gamblers can cheat the system, and that is not a secret. We all know that not all gamblers are regular people, and some of them have skills in the programming language, and that can make them test the security system on that gambling site. But as you said, if they can break the security, in the end, the casino will know, and they will close the hole so they can not cheat anymore.

Ehh, that sounds more like a made up thing that keeps people happy that the casino gets robbed since they got robbed of their money at one time by some casino even if they decided to play at their own decision. Thing is the casino owners are clever too, thats why they are businessmen. So at any hint of cheating they will investigate and catch the person, probably going to end up as a criminal court case.

In any case, cheating the game is a theft and needs to be punished. But I dont think the OP wanted to this to be pointed out.

The casino will think twice to cheat their players because if they do that, they will lose trust from their players, and they will not have many players that play the games and stay in their site.

Of course the casino would not even think of cheating. They dont even need to.

[MWesterweele]

I think so, but some gamblers can cheat the system, and that is not a secret. We all know that not all gamblers are regular people, and some of them have skills in the programming language, and that can make them test the security system on that gambling site. But as you said, if they can break the security, in the end, the casino will know, and they will close the hole so they can not cheat anymore.

Ehh, that sounds more like a made up thing that keeps people happy that the casino gets robbed since they got robbed of their money at one time by some casino even if they decided to play at their own decision. Thing is the casino owners are clever too, thats why they are businessmen. So at any hint of cheating they will investigate and catch the person, probably going to end up as a criminal court case.

In any case, cheating the game is a theft and needs to be punished. But I dont think the OP wanted to this to be pointed out.

The casino will think twice to cheat their players because if they do that, they will lose trust from their players, and they will not have many players that play the games and stay in their site.

Of course the casino would not even think of cheating. They dont even need to.

I think the process of machine have a code so it means they have control to it so possible they can control the one who can win. And the effect of it to the gambler is they ends to be bet again and again until the code reach its command then winner will be announced. But not all machine have code like what state above because there's still some machne need to play with strategy or involve luck.

[TheUltraElite]

I think the process of machine have a code so it means they have control to it so possible they can control the one who can win. And the effect of it to the gambler is they ends to be bet again and again until the code reach its command then winner will be announced.

You "think" or have a reason to say so? If you just think that you are losing a gambling streak because the game is forcing you to lose then you are suffering from the delusion that all gamblers face during gambling on an EV- game. You should verify the bets to make sure they are valid and that is all the casino can do to help your ease your mind. The rolls created on dice games and such are random and the site does not control them in any manner so stop making wrong conclusions. They would not be here without a "scammer" flag if they were rigging the bets.

But not all machine have code like what state above because there's still some machne need to play with strategy or involve luck.

EV+ games are skill based but not completely if that is what you are talking about.

[AicecreaME]

It is not illegal?

Yes, that is logically and definitely illegal.

It ain't illegal as long as you're not going to let them know that you are using it when you are betting in their game, because that is consider as cheating. Using a machine or any software that will help you to win against the house will never be tolerated once they figure out you are using one, I don't know what might be the punishment, but they could get the money back from you because you went overboard.

My opinion about OP is that it is great to have that kind of software that gives you accurate profits, that would be a game changer in the gambling industry if it is going to be on sell on the market. I bet plenty of people would buy it.

[desertfox470]

Is this really possible on gambling(any form)?

I think it's an AI since you can't predict exactly what will happen in a real horse race, if it's an AI I don't think that they can predicted it using a probably fair technology because I think it's impossible.

However if the horse racing is not based on the probably fair technology either the owner or the user can also cheat, but of course the owner of the gambling site will probably the one who will take advantage on it.

It is not illegal?

If it's true, it's illegal since you're cheating on the system however it's also the game owner or gambling owner's fault is it, so it's their responsibility to take care of their system to avoid cheating the system.

[Mumbeeptind1963]

Is this really possible on gambling(any form)?

I think it's an AI since you can't predict exactly what will happen in a real horse race, if it's an AI I don't think that they can predicted it using a probably fair technology because I think it's impossible.

However if the horse racing is not based on the probably fair technology either the owner or the user can also cheat, but of course the owner of the gambling site will probably the one who will take advantage on it.

It is not illegal?

If it's true, it's illegal since you're cheating on the system however it's also the game owner or gambling owner's fault is it, so it's their responsibility to take care of their system to avoid cheating the system.

I agree casino owner is the one we need to blame because they are the only person that can manipulate the machine and their system. Perhaps weneed should be more careful especially those betting games we played, we  to be more observant to avoid loses by not choosing there gambling games. I think owners should be more responsible about it.

[LbtalkL]

That's cool if its really exist, I think it is not illegal its just a simulation and not guaranteed to be correct. Before they can do this simulation I think they gather data first of the horses what is there usual speed, behaviour, etc. It is like studying your opponents a mind game.

[TheUltraElite]

I agree casino owner is the one we need to blame because they are the only person that can manipulate the machine and their system.

It is strange that you think in that manner when we are having so many online bitcoin casinos which have a provably fair system that can be verified by a third party. Are you even aware how provably fair works?

Perhaps weneed should be more careful especially those betting games we played, we  to be more observant to avoid loses by not choosing there gambling games. I think owners should be more responsible about it.

For physical casinos sometimes there is a chance of bias and machines malfunctioning but they have a policy that malfunction voids all bets. But again this is not true for the online casinos.

What the OP said is not really related to this but still, you should check out provably fair in any reputable casino like primedice and see how it works. Any of the newcomers in this sector are scrutinized by the members of this forum who are cryptography enthusiasts for their provably fair system and if flaws are found then they are told to rectify them as well.

[GreatArkansas]

That's cool if its really exist, I think it is not illegal its just a simulation and not guaranteed to be correct. (...)

It is, but kinda difficult to trust. Like what other people said above that there are really possibilities that they can manipulate it, especially we talking video horse games. But there are still a possibility that it's not really manipulated like they will present some proof of it and maybe some licensed from higher authorities in term of gambling.