Early adoption stage

[Joe200]

According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations , the first 2.5% of adopters are "innovators" and the next 13.5% are "early adopters".

According to this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0 , 2 million people are holding BTC.

The big uncertainty is how many people will hold BTC at "full adoption". The world population is 7 billion people. If, at "full adoption", 0.1% have BTC, that's 7 million people. 7 million * 16% = 1.1 million, which means we are already past the "early adopters" stage.

However, if at "full adoption", 0.2% will have BTC, that's 14 million people. 14 million * 16% = 2.2 million, meaning we are near the end of the "early adopters" stage.

All of these numbers are guesstimates, but I think they give you a general sense of where we are. I personally think we are near the end of "early adopters". Maybe the upcoming bubble will be the end.

[the_poet]

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.

Not sure if you're aware of what you're stating, but late majority would actually mean that Bitcoin almost reached its maximum user base, which I really don't think is the case.

[gentlemand]

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.


Everyone saying we are early adopters are hoping for another 10x-100x profits... which will most likely not happen. I want it to happen more than anything else but I'm just being realistic. Good luck getting to $1T market cap with all the FUD, lack of security, regulation and overall understanding of what the hell bitcoin is. Maybe in 10 years... but I so wish I was an early adopter and got in last year or 2 years ago. Your only hope of ever seeing those kinds of profits again is through a time machine.

You appear to be a bit dispirited today. 2009-2012 types are sub micro stealth adopters.

I've no idea about orders of magnitude higher, but when one ATM machine arriving in an entire country still gets people excited I think we can assume it's still unbelievably early days.

There's a universe of difference between a regular person hearing the word Bitcoin, then actually vaguely figuring out what it is, then deciding it's worth taking the plunge, then creating a wallet and buying some or being paid some. That might be a process of several years for most.

I'll state it again - if you're posting on here you're so attuned to Bitcoin that it's very hard to conceive of what the non-infected world makes of it. It's still a drip in a swirling ocean.

I am. I'm down 90% on some of my Alt coin investments (on a significant amount of money), down nearly 40% on LTC, just barely up on BTC since I joined last Sept/Oct. I'm still a believer of bitcoin, but I'm going to remain pessimistic on my financial situation until I see the dough. I have a strong superstitious theory that I am just unlucky when it comes to money and investing (which has been proven over and over again), so I have doubts that I will be fortunate enough to ride another price explosion. It must be an amazing feeling. I live vicariously though you guys who have experienced that.

Well, if you'd popped back to 2011 and told everyone what was transpiring a piffling 2-2.5 years from then - VCs, hedge funds, professional investors, thousands of merchants, governments sitting up and taking notice, exchanges on the horizon which might actually not steal your money - people would think you were utterly deranged.

The combo of all that weight, all the beatings Bitcoin has taken and it's still growing and yet only a few tens or hundreds of thousands own a complete coin makes right now a pretty miraculous time to buy in.

I presumed it would be a multi-year deal. That's fine with me. There'll be many, many more lulls, scares and explosions. In 2016 you'll be a veteran who's seen it all and thrived.

[Dafar]

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.

Not sure if you're aware of what you're stating, but late majority would actually mean that Bitcoin almost reached its maximum user base, which I really don't think is the case.

I meant late minority, oops

Well, if you'd popped back to 2011 and told everyone what was transpiring a piffling 2-2.5 years from then - VCs, hedge funds, professional investors, thousands of merchants, governments sitting up and taking notice, exchanges on the horizon which might actually not steal your money - people would think you were utterly deranged.

The combo of all that weight, all the beatings Bitcoin has taken and it's still growing and yet only a few tens or hundreds of thousands own a complete coin makes right now a pretty miraculous time to buy in.

I presumed it would be a multi-year deal. That's fine with me. There'll be many, many more lulls, scares and explosions. In 2016 you'll be a veteran who's seen it all and thrived.

That's what I'm hoping for! I'm eager to see where we go by 2016, i'll definitely be holding by then as long as my coins don't disappear. I think LTC has a chance of showing me some love... but I should probably get them off BTC-E

[bitrider]

Dafar - Don't let your current pain cloud your vision. You bought in during the bubble phase, like many others. The same thing happened when folks bought in at $250 and then had to hold down through $50. But within 8 months those same people were in 400% profit.

although we never know for sure, I believe strongly you will get to ride at least 1 great rocket in the next 12 months, that will leave you grateful you bought way way back in 2013.    Hopefully your faith will be repaid and you will be able to tell your story to the next wave of adopters who show up when btc is at $5k.

may it be so...

and yes. Don't leave any significant funds (fiat or BTC) on the exchanges. Very bad idea.

[xDan]

- Governments are writing legislation about and holding publicized meetings about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is already starting to collide with and meet resistence from the establishment.
- If you go into a room at least a few people know about bitcoin.
- There are several news articles every day about bitcoin.
- My Facebook friends are now into Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin is often on the front page of Yahoo Business/Finance and other news pages, and often on NPR.
- Bitcoin exchanges are getting ready to launch in wall street.
- Tens/Hundred of thousands of businesses have already adopted Bitcoin, including major mainstream online retailers.

- governments are running scared, this threatens them more than the Internet itself could have. Money = power. So they have incentive to get in the action very early.
- lots of people know about Bitcoin, very few own any or actually know how to *use* it.

I personally think what happens now is simply long slow growth as services are built to make it easier to use. Maybe we already had the "dotcom boom" of bitcoin, but now we have a long slow increase that is no longer driven as much by speculation as by actual useful services (I hope).

Considering that bitcoin is all but unusable, the mind boggles to consider what the value will be once it is easy to use for any fit purpose.

Freakin' this!

Bitcoin is still incredibly difficult for normal people to use. When a kid can get bitcoin as easy as buying phone credit, THEN things may get interesting.

[adud]

Is there a user base history (or number of addresses with non-zero balance)?
It could be interesting to see how fast (or slow) it grows, or cross reference with price over time.

[windjc]

- Governments are writing legislation about and holding publicized meetings about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is already starting to collide with and meet resistence from the establishment.

Governments recognizing a technology is not a sign that it is in any particular "stage."  They recognized cell phones decades before the iphone.

- If you go into a room at least a few people know about bitcoin.

Not a true statement. Maybe in TERA's world, but not in the actual world of billions of people. Only a small few have heard of it. A smaller few know what it even is.

- There are several news articles every day about bitcoin.

Most of the world doesn't read these articles. Most of these articles are read by the same small %. Again, there were many articles written about the internet before people used it. Many are still not using it.

- My Facebook friends are now into Bitcoin.

TERA's facebook friends are now into Bitcoin. Ha, this means what? It means TERA has friends in the small minority.

- Bitcoin is often on the front page of Yahoo Business/Finance and other news pages, and often on NPR.

Bitcoin being in the business/finance section is limited scope. When its in the world wide human vernacular, ie twitter, facebook, iphone, netflix, then we can talk about majority trend lines.

- Bitcoin exchanges are getting ready to launch in wall street.

Again, this is not widespread usability. This is just more speculation. The applications that can make Bitcoin adopted worldwide in different industries and platforms are still in development.

- Tens/Hundred of thousands of businesses have already adopted Bitcoin, including major mainstream online retailers.

Given that hundreds of millions of businesses exists, this shows how the term "early adopters" apply to today's reality.


The "early" phase is over. This might not be the "final" phase but I don't think it's the early phase because there is such a large awareness and adoption already.

The early phase just began.

The reason the market cap is so small is because people have CHOSEN not to use it. We are not even guaranteed that bitcoin is "the future of money" so your logic of the relation of bitcoin's market cap to angry birds and to some potential market cap of quadrillions of dollars is based on a false premise. Maybe the realistic future of bitcoin is only to reach the market cap of Google or Facebook, in which case we've already realized 1/50 - 1/20 of it.  Or maybe the fair market cap of Bitcoin is the market cap of Western Union, which it's already at.

The reason the market cap is so small is that bitcoin is not easy to use yet nor it is easy to acquire nor is it easy to manage. Once applications are developed to allow this and people can experience the advantages of digital currency in their everyday lives, bitcoin can move into majority mode.

[Bit_Happy]

More like in an advanced phase. I believe that the coming months will make or break Bitcoin. Also, Bitcoin is being almost exclusively kept as an investment, instead of being used as a currency (yes, that is obvious, but I just wanted to emphasize that little fact). If no big players start adopting Bitcoin before december 31st 2014, it will be over. Investors will start to realize that Bitcoin is overpriced and at that point, everyone will rush to the door.

I don't know about the other cryptos in such a situation though.

Everyone will rush to the door...
OMG we are thinking like a Ponzi and everyone will rush to the door sell, sell, sell.
^^^
BS
Wall Street is preparing to throw huge money at BTC.
Good luck with your FUD.

[Bit_Happy]

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.

I would say we are early adopters. People who bought before mid-2013 are innovators IMHO. We are definitely not in the early majority yet.

We jumped the chasm last year and then slid into the hole.
Now BTC needs to crawl back out of a negative period.

[pungopete468]

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.

I would say we are early adopters. People who bought before mid-2013 are innovators IMHO. We are definitely not in the early majority yet.

We jumped the chasm last year and then slid into the hole.
Now BTC needs to crawl back out of a negative period.

If we jumped the chasm last year it would be an incredibly depressing realization...

Personally I think we are still in the earliest stage of adoption. The governments don't even know what Bitcoin is yet. They are scrambling to try and classify it, then regulate the exchanges.

There's no way we have 13% of full adoption yet. Thinking that in this stage just doesn't sound, feel, or seem right.

Regardless of any financial benefits the future might bring, we are all still very early adopters...

The distribution of BTC wealth will shift around as time goes on. The earliest of adopters will take huge profits but it's very unlikely that they will cash out completely...

Bitcoin is a revolution waiting to happen. Most people don't even realize the amount of control exerted over them. People can have control of their wealth once again with Bitcoin; the perceived risk decreases and becomes palatable as time goes on. The longer Bitcoin exists, the more powerful it becomes...

There are so many people living in depressed areas where Bitcoin can greatly benefit users; I don't think Bitcoin has jumped the chasm yet...

[Bit_Happy]

We are not early adopters... people who bought in at 2011 and 2012 might be... but not us. We are more like late majority.

I would say we are early adopters. People who bought before mid-2013 are innovators IMHO. We are definitely not in the early majority yet.

We jumped the chasm last year and then slid into the hole.
Now BTC needs to crawl back out of a negative period.

If we jumped the chasm last year it would be an incredibly depressing realization...

Personally I think we are still in the earliest stage of adoption. The governments don't even know what Bitcoin is yet. They are scrambling to try and classify it, then regulate the exchanges.

There's no way we have 13% of full adoption yet. Thinking that in this stage just doesn't sound, feel, or seem right.

Regardless of any financial benefits the future might bring, we are all still very early adopters...

The distribution of BTC wealth will shift around as time goes on. The earliest of adopters will take huge profits but it's very unlikely that they will cash out completely...

Bitcoin is a revolution waiting to happen. Most people don't even realize the amount of control exerted over them. People can have control of their wealth once again with Bitcoin; the perceived risk decreases and becomes palatable as time goes on. The longer Bitcoin exists, the more powerful it becomes...

There are so many people living in depressed areas where Bitcoin can greatly benefit users; I don't think Bitcoin has jumped the chasm yet...

Digital currency is a revolution waiting to happen:
I'm still excited about BTC, but a new leader might rise out of the altcoin mess.
Perhaps someone will "re-brand" the bitcoin blockchain with new wallets and a new name; That is also possible.

[pungopete468]

Good call. Bitcoin has competition...

Bitcoin does have one major advantage; the level of investment in mining infrastructure...

I think it's wise to keep Bitcoin and Litecoin a part of your digital portfolio.

[Ibian]

Good call. Bitcoin has competition...

Bitcoin does have one major advantage; the level of investment in mining infrastructure...

I think it's wise to keep Bitcoin and Litecoin a part of your digital portfolio.

Maybe you can tell me. What makes litecoin worth something?

[Bit_Happy]

Good call. Bitcoin has competition...

Bitcoin does have one major advantage; the level of investment in mining infrastructure...

I think it's wise to keep Bitcoin and Litecoin a part of your digital portfolio.

Maybe you can tell me. What makes litecoin worth something?

Relatively rare, well established, accepted at a growing list of places.
Also a hedge for investors: some possible bugs/attacks on BTC might not work on LTC, especially if they develop new features.

[Ibian]

Good call. Bitcoin has competition...

Bitcoin does have one major advantage; the level of investment in mining infrastructure...

I think it's wise to keep Bitcoin and Litecoin a part of your digital portfolio.

Maybe you can tell me. What makes litecoin worth something?

Relatively rare, well established, accepted at a growing list of places.
Also a hedge for investors: some possible bugs/attacks on BTC might not work on LTC, especially if they develop new features.

But it does nothing better than bitcoin. Other than perhaps requiring different (not necessarily harder) ways to be hacked, it's just a weaker version of bitcoin in all aspects.

[Dr.Zaius]

No. Early adoption ended in January 2013.

Summer 2013 gave one last shot to latecomers in the dip to 50-60's.

[pungopete468]

Litecoin has no advantages to Bitcoin, only differences... The differences may or may not be advantageous depending on the perspective from where you look at them...

The Litecoin blockchain would not be susceptible to potential future problems with SHA-2 encryption. Cracking scrypt encryption is extremely memory intensive...

It's more likely to succeed compared with any of the other alt coins because of the demographic of its supporters.

[Bit_Happy]

Maybe you can tell me. What makes litecoin worth something?

LTC has proven value because the market has spoken.
You can predict lower prices and/or try to debate, but LTC currently has value and no one needs to prove it.

But it does nothing better than bitcoin....

Litecoin (currently) allows people to buy 10 LTC for under $180.
Many people would rather be paid a higher number of LTC, than 0.00047 BTC (for example)
The higher prices go, the more value this difference will have.


ps. You are also off-topic; Have a great night  

[andyatcrux]

Would you say we are in early adoption stage?

my answer is check out rovio. it has a market cap in the same range as bitcoin.

it is the company that does angry birds. that´s all they do. the future of money has the same market cap as a several year old single game app. sounds pretty early to me.... 

If it is in fact true about the comparable market caps, then this is one hell of a way to put things into perspective.