Bitmain & Canaan To Release 5nm chip ASIC Miners in Q1 2020!

[Searing]

Well, it looks like my (ONE) Bitmain's S9i's days are numbered.

https://news.bitcoin.com/bitmain-and-canaan-to-reveal-5nm-bitcoin-mining-chips-in-2020/

https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/canaan-to-introduce-5nm-asic-miners-in-q1-2020/

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bitmain-canaan-launch-new-miners-in-preparation-for-the-bitcoin-halving

What do you all think?

Brad

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[Searing]

Reserved.

[philipma1957]

I voted they both miss q2.

which mean no gear ⚙️ until july 1.

I also doubt i get a s19 5nm in july.

[Biodom]

Both will miss Q2 deadline...or we are all f-ed.

[mgoz]

I think Bitmain could make Q1 deadline but not Canaan. The S15 was supposed to be their future proof 7nm miner and they dropped the S17 a few months later at almost the same price, so it will be no different. That was 9 months ago and all the + and e models are still slightly less efficient than the initial S17 Pro 53TH. Most of the T17 series is still less efficient than S15. Current 17 series pricing has been at dump level for quite some time IMO.

[mochaaa]

risk production for 5nm at TSMC is early Q1.... probably Q2 unless they negotiated something earlier?

[philipma1957]

Well this makes it very hard to buy any gear.
If this is a 20 watt miner there is zero need for any gear until it comes out.
So the game is mine and hodl for at least 120 days.

It also smacks of desperation on asic builders part.

They must really fear the ½ ing.

S-9 ran from May 2016 to Sept 2018 before the s11 showed up  that was 29 months.

S-17  runs from April 2019 to June 2020  that is  14 months.

It indicates both companies really fear the 2020 ½ ing

BTW

september 21 2019 the s15 announcement BM1391
https://blog.bitmain.com/en/bitmain-announces-next-generation-7nm-asic-chip/
Nov 8 , 2018  s15 for sale
https://blog.bitmain.com/en/the-7nm-antminer-s15-and-t15-are-now-available-for-purchase/

feb 18 2019 the s17 chip announcement  BM1397
https://blog.bitmain.com/en/bitmain-announces-next-generation-7nm-asic-chip-for-sha256-mining-delivering-breakthrough-energy-efficiency/

april 8 2019 s17  pro for sale
https://blog.bitmain.com/en/bitmain-announces-specs-and-release-times-for-its-latest-7nm-antminer-17-series-miners/

so

a dec 26 2019 could mean  they can be purchased by 60-120 days

which is faster then I believe they will show up.

[Searing]

I voted they both miss q2.

which mean no gear ⚙️ until july 1.

I also doubt i get a s19 5nm in july.

Well, I MAY have to get miners someday in 2020 ..probably at the end of 2020 for 'peace of mind' for crypto business (since 2013) tax purposes. I show NO income (retired) from the crypto business anymore. So as the self-employed on such, unless I want to show income, I have 3 choices. (1) I could speculate/trade (don't know a lot of people that have those skills (2) I can get equipment and mine again in 2020 or (3) I could put up some kinda hosting place.

My reasoning is I am showing like 40k to 60k of equipment depreciation for the next 2 years for a business that has no income. The CPA says it is money lost and 'kosher'. I myself see it as "kinda iffy at best" if the IRS ever looked me over....so for peace of mind I need to show some kinda TRY at income, with mining, even at a modest/more LOSS, if that is what it takes. Just to show IRS or whomever, I'm in there swinging to wrap up the crypto business. So with that as an aside, I guess it will be 'used' equipment or new at the end of 2020..depending on the above 'peace of mind' position I'm taking. So not optimal...but I can't see the IRS being all that happy with me with 40k to 60k of already deducted equipment depreciation these last 2 years or so, without me in there 'swinging' as a miner in some manner. Selling BTC/Crypto with cap gains does NOT count as income from the business. Anyway, my thinking on this maybe.

BUT in my own view, it makes very little sense (If the above was not true) to get ANY MINER of any kind, before the halving. You are way, way better to sell crap out of your attic on eBay and buy BTC/Crypto or use the ASIC equipment $$$$ to get more 'bang' for your buck with 2x the Bitcoin now..rather than miners, even at 7nm on a pre-order in the future, as Phlipma says ..probably arriving AFTER the halving. So Craig Wright/Youtube Killing BTC/Crypto Videos/Doom and Gloom on 'evil' BTC/Crypto/China still saying it is gonna 'ban' and/or limit mining in 2020/FUD/FUD/FUD aside in 2020. Gonna just go for it!

(1) keep the hoard in HODL mode. Boom or Doom!

(2) get miners for peace of mind at end of 2020 if I feel it prudent (even if I only break even or lose 1/3 on the process..guess HODL that mining income, in that case also and eat the loss)

(3) sell a LOT of crap I have around here on eBay and call it a 2 for 1 sale. For every $1 to BTC I put away before halving is 'supposedly' $2 in BTC after halving.

Balls to the wall boys and girls...Moon or Doom! Beanie Babies be damned!

So I have to admire the big players like Canaan and Bitmain, thinking the pump is coming and putting it all out there (evil though Bitmain is!)...If the above does not work in my case on above....we all will be 'wrek'd' indeed! The big players like Bitmain/Hosting/etc, etc. We will all implode together. What the heck is is only money right?

Bitcoin: Always Drama!

Brad

Both will miss Q2 deadline...or we are all f-ed.

Yeah, indeed. What are we gonna wish for then? Litecoin with Mimblewimble saving L3+'s and such in some manner...the odds are indeed long on current equipment of any ASIC type.

[mochaaa]

7nm -> 5nm is... theoretical 15% increase in performance per watt? Seems reasonably priced s17/s17 pro wouldnt be too bad, depending on how long 5nm is projected to be dominant node. anything unable to really push underclocking will be dumped for the halving

[Biodom]

My reasoning is I am showing like 40k to 60k of equipment depreciation for the next 2 years for a business that has no income. The CPA says it is money lost and 'kosher'.

AFAIK, you can only show 2 out of 5 years in "loss". On a third year (after two consequent losses) you can only have a loss equal to earned income as business would be considered not "business", but "hobby". Ask your CPA if this is true, but this is what I gather.

Re mimblewible-too new. It's GPU fun, mostly. No gains, but small losses with a few GPUs. I see no use for this token until a decade later if ever.

[Searing]

Hmmm...what I suspected....but again if you are correct....last year was a loss...and thus this year will be a loss...so say I have like $20k left in equipment depreciation and no income...I am guessing I'd simply owe income tax on that $20k of equipment depreciation left at that point in time (guessing and assuming I have that much left?) Thus what with state taxes and fed..I'd be down $5k? On the other hand, again retired..so that 20k would be my only income...so if I remember 9K or some such off that would be say, more or less 12k income or I'd owe 3k ...anyway off-topic you get my drift?

But yeah, it seemed like I had to be caught on the ass end of this in some manner..if my only income mining has died..or else you could just start a business...kick-ass like heck the first 3 years say and then walk away from the last year or so of equipment depreciation. I too think this is unlikely. Likely as that my income is probably going to be soc sec at best on the year after (2021) this stuff shows up. I have to fess up (2020?) it likely won't amount to much as compared to buying miners (with all the risk) and showing income as a risk I guess Again, if as I assume..whatever you got off of gross income for equipment, (25%) is now suddenly taxed as income past the 2 years of losses (which is as it is now I guess). So my worst case is likely having to pay about $5k in taxes on that hobby unused equipment that I took as depreciation. fun times.

As to Mimblewimble ...with say GRIN...that is a wild ass big gamble on the Innsolicon Grin Machines...not a bet I'd take willingly...unless it meant just giving equivalent $$$ to the IRS.

Brad

p.s. I can't be the only one in this boat from last year and this year (2019) and looking into 3rd year of loss in 2020? Anyone?

[Philipma1957cellphone]

I broke even in 2018 but I had a capital.gain carryover loss of 2300.

In 2019 I purchased a lot of gear and shifted from sales of gear with some mining. To mining with some gear sales.

I had a very small 2019 profit.

[Searing]

I think I can show a profit this year if I count my eBay sales (gasp!) and Signature Campaign BTC stuff  (gasp!) and the obelisk sale of equipment for exactly what I had in it and 1.25 million (dubious) SiaCoin. (meh!) Some other dust BTC from helping/fixing/consulting. Thus only 'costs' in that none of that is 'mining' would be maybe my Inet feed to the house... Thus MAYBE I could show something like $16k of Income - $1k or inet to the house or 15k income and thus kick my 67,500 equip costs down the road a bit maybe bleed ..what another 12.5% off of that this year...but EVENTUALLY I'm probably gonna show NO income and a loss within 5 years 2x ..thus I figgure if lucky I'm on the hook wrapping this up at say $15k or so when the IRS if that happens as a 'worse' case in say 2021, 2020 sure  did not look like a miners dream either. So I suppose the only thing I could maybe also knock out say 5-10k would be to sell 'self-employed" crap on eBay..to show income in 2020 as well.. but hell ..that is so boring I'd probably just pay the $15k to wrap up mining in say 2021 rather than that ..yech!

Also, REMEMBER to keep all your mining equipment you have slated for 5 years of depreciation ....you can't depreciate the tractor as a farmer don't ya know by selling the tractor the last 2 years of farming, because you guit and expect that to work out well with the IRS. If you are in our ASIC miner Kinda hole... Thus the attic is gonna be crowded with PSU's and bitmain and knc titans and the rest till ..what maybe 2021 at best or 2022? yech. Not sure why I'm bothering...if I was ever audited by the IRS I've done it by hand with paper since 2013...I was recently told by someone that was audited that they expect it in CVS format and excel and equipment invoices scanned and sent to them etc, etc. So the conversation of 'why' in 2017 you grossed over $100k and took equipment off and why I was too cheap to hire an accountant for your over 100k business...It would be quite the cluster explaining that the miner biz it not start out that way that year at $3.80 Litecoin, if I remember right. 20/20 hindsight by the IRS would be interesting in that on some years the tools they want a person to use in 2019 on a computer for keeping track did not exist before 2017 or 2018. Very likely I would pay a fine anyway for 'incomplete' records with yechy paper....and inconvenience to the IRS person anyway...

Well, anyway, unless something changes to make me some miner income in 2020 and/or 2021..I'll set that $15k aside for the day I have to wrap all this 'mining' up in a bow. I don't expect to see any redress in 2020 for mining that is for sure! Also, it would just ADD to my equipment deductions anyway ...if they never made bank...so better to just buy coin/start an ebay store/and/or just set aside for that day in the future..when the self-employed business is no more.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Frankly,  thanks to their experience on the 7nm node TSMC's progress on the 5nm node is rather astounding. ref https://www.anandtech.com/show/15016/tsmc-5nm-on-track-for-q2-2020-hvm-will-ramp-faster-than-7nm

They have had 5nm design libs out since April so it is a safe bet that Bitmain, Canaan, and a select few other alpha customers doing full custom chips have been toying with the node for at least a couple months.

I'm just astonished that despite being still in Risk-production status TSMC is claiming over 80% yields. Hitting that good of a yield so soon after releasing a new node is simply unheard of!

[philipma1957]

I have to say  this is very interesting if they release a  25-28 watt a th s19 in May just in time for the ½ ing.

In a way I am glad I have not ramped up  fully.

I have 24-26 s9's  I can scrap  and get all 5nm gear.

[Biodom]

That only works if the price is not silly.
Currently, S17/T17 prices ARE too high, considering halving.
It only makes sense if numbers make sense.
However, i expect that next gen would last a while, just like S9 gen did.
Maybe not 3 years longevity, but at least 2.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

In the article about the 5nm dev tools, they say:

TSMC says that when compared to N7 (1st Gen 7 nm, DUV-only), N5 technology will allow chip developers to shrink die area of their designs by ~45%, making transistor density ~1.8x higher. It will also increase frequency by 15% (at the same complexity and power) or reduce power consumption by 20% power reduction (at the same frequency and complexity).

Since they will be essentially using the same logical chip designs their current chips use (same complexity) it will be interesting to see what direction BM & Canaan take: Higher speed at same power or same speed at lower power.

As for the cost of the 1st 5nm miners out-the-door: no doubt cost will be insane $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[philipma1957]

Are they using silicon or a hybrid of gallium/silicon for the wafer?

I think they want to break 100th   so maybe 100-102th at 2800-3000 watts is their goal.

This announcement has stopped my ramp up for sure.

We have space for 20 x 3000 watts  we will be on a holding pattern for sure.

[mikeywith]

it will be interesting to see what direction BM & Canaan take: Higher speed at same power or same speed at lower power.

I think Bitmain will focus on lowering the power, assuming it's 20% power reduction vs 15% frequency increment. after the halving a ton of hash power will leave the network, there will be no need for 100th miners, just a 50th miner that does say 35w per th as oppose to the current S17 that does 45w per th will be just fine for post halving.

Having said that, I still think it's better to buy current 7nm gears before halving than waiting for the new gen to be released, it's highly unlikely that bitcoin price will have any major spikes in price, it's safe to assume that profitability as in profit per $ invested in mining will drop at least 30-40% and that relativity small improvement in gear efficiency won't help much in terms of hitting ROI.

[sidehack]

So you think they're gonna start building miners with under 2000W power draw again? Have they ever gone backward in power draw, since the S3?