Next Bitcoin Halving will drive the price down...

[MajorMiner]

Next Bitcoin Halving will drive the price down because the ecological system in which Bitcoin lives will be reduced.
More miners will bail, and it is the miners who are the bone marrow that creates the life blood of block chain.

Thoughts?

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[gentlemand]

The exact same thing was said about the previous one and no doubt the one before that. It will be said for every one in future until the block reward becomes a trickle.

Compare hash rates to the first one. I think we're just a little bit higher these days.

[Jercyhora2]

Maybe your conclusion is correct but there's so many narrative saying that BTCitcoin halving will cause bull run due to Bitcoin production will become slower and this will expectedly accumulate fast price increase because of investors.

About the miners, they have no choice to continue mining or unless they sell their rigs especially the miners who's using ASIC.

[MajorMiner]

Honestly I hope I am wrong and Bitcoin hits 1 million so McAfee will get to keep his weener.
Some may even argue that the halving is already in the price, fair point.
And yes this was said in various forms before prior halvings, I remember well - been in Bitcoin space since 2011, and I remember the fun loving thriving mining community from those days.
But, the narrative surrounding the Bitcoin and reality of crypto economy and its global positioning have changed in a very non linear progression.
The culture of Bitcoin mining went away from enthusiasts and early adapters into a much colder and darker commercial place.
Again, I hope I am wrong but I share what my feelings and intuition tell me.

[gentlemand]

The culture of Bitcoin mining went away from enthusiasts and early adapters into a much colder and darker commercial place.

Mining that isn't cold and commercial would mean the eventual death of Bitcoin.

We would of course be nowhere without the early enthusiasts but they can't be depended on if it's no more than a hobby or passion. The more cutthroat it is the stronger it'll be.

If one mining operation can't cut it another one will be along who can. That's how it's always been and always will be.

I for one have never found myself worrying about mining. It's one of the most elegant systems the world has ever seen. Shame about the centralisation though.  

[AverageGlabella]

I would expect the Bitcoin price to take a small hit before the Bitcoin halving and I say this because a lot of people who are involved in Bitcoin are here to invest and get out as soon as possible. A major event like a Bitcoin halving can be a scary thing to non technical users of Bitcoin and that could influence them into selling which could drive prices down.

Although I don't see the Bitcoin halving having any negative effects on the Bitcoin price in the long run. The theory behind it is it should make Bitcoin more valuable to hold because less Bitcoin is being generated per month. The lack of technical knowledge is a minor inconvenience and should only effect price in the short term so anyone who is invested in Bitcoin for the long term should not panic if this does happen.

The exact same thing was said about the previous one and no doubt the one before that. It will be said for every one in future until the block reward becomes a trickle.

Compare hash rates to the first one. I think we're just a little bit higher these days.

Do you know the immediate price after the last halving? This is not something that I paid attention to last time and it would be interested to see how the market reacted before and after the last halving and compare that with the first Bitcoin halving event.

[buyinbtc]

Next Bitcoin Halving will drive the price down because the ecological system in which Bitcoin lives will be reduced.
More miners will bail, and it is the miners who are the bone marrow that creates the life blood of block chain.

Thoughts?

I don't think that makes sense. First of all, there will probably be a forthrun of the price prior to halving, because of that there won't be the miner purge as even though the mined coins will drop in half, people will be still profitable due to high prices. Even if the price stays at the same rate as it is now, we already saw quite a few small miners leave the space, from this I believe that there's mostly only strong miners left which are not afraid of the halving.

[crossabdd]

the more difficult bitcoin mining after halving, I think there will be many miners who retreat / stop. because the ability of their computer competition to make blocks is not qualified. then will bitcoin fall? I can't answer that. but if you look at the movement of the chart, the bitcoin chart follows the previous pattern after halving. I hope bitcoin will be more expensive after halving.

[gentlemand]

Do you know the immediate price after the last halving? This is not something that I paid attention to last time and it would be interested to see how the market reacted before and after the last halving and compare that with the first Bitcoin halving event.

Very little happened. It was July 9th 2016 and the price was $654. It was relatively flat for several months after. It only started to rise strongly and broke the $1000 barrier at the end of the year. At the start of 2016 it was $450 ish so it did work its way up towards the halving.

[diahsw]

is that possible,? I don't think it can be ascertained, for the reasons you have stated are still unclear, and I am still doubtful about that ... !!

[xZork]

Maybe your conclusion is correct but there's so many narrative saying that BTCitcoin halving will cause bull run due to Bitcoin production will become slower and this will expectedly accumulate fast price increase because of investors.

I think the halving will not have much impact on the price of bitcoin, people will continue to do their jobs in the market whether or not bitcoin is halved. What really affects the price of bitcoin is the policy of the way the government deals with it. If tomorrow we receive news that China and the United States accept bitcoin as a currency, I think its price will rise more strongly than at any moment.

[Yaunfitda]

Next Bitcoin Halving will drive the price down because the ecological system in which Bitcoin lives will be reduced.
More miners will bail, and it is the miners who are the bone marrow that creates the life blood of block chain.

Thoughts?

Lol, have you seen the previous effects of bitcoin halving? Do you see miners bailing out just because the price tank? On the contrary there could be a growth on the mining industry again, as new hardware are being produce to cope with the difficulty adjustment because of block halving.

So everyone will adjust here, manufactures, miners, crypto investors, exchanges. Everyone in the ecological system will work as one that will result in the price being push further and drive for a new all time high in the coming years after the halving.

[hatshepsut93]

Are you saying that the price follows hashrate? Because that's not true, while hashrate is very important, it's not very strongly correlated, you can see it by how the hashrate kept growing all throughout the bear market in 2018. And we already had two halvings and the price didn't fall according to your reasoning, so what should makes this halvening different?

[moviebuff777]

If the price goes down then it will cost more to mine than the mining reward and no one will mine. If no one mines then the whole system crashes.

I believe that the price will increase because that’s the only way Bitcoin can survive.

[CryptoBry]

Next Bitcoin Halving will drive the price down because the ecological system in which Bitcoin lives will be reduced. More miners will bail, and it is the miners who are the bone marrow that creates the life blood of block chain. Thoughts?

In my opinion, only time can tell which of the many ideas and opinions of what this next mining rewards halving can produce: Will it push the price of Bitcoin higher or lower? Personally, though I am hoping, of course, that this can be creating more interest and therefore demand with Bitcoin superficial as it might be. With an increasing demand, we know where the price is headed to. But then again, there is no guarantee whatsoever in this marketplace, all we can do now is to speculate and think of what can be, nothing more nothing less.

[bitcoindusts]

Next Bitcoin Halving will drive the price down because the ecological system in which Bitcoin lives will be reduced.
More miners will bail, and it is the miners who are the bone marrow that creates the life blood of block chain.

Thoughts?

Miners may bail out if the price does not move according to the supply.  It is still early to say that the price will go down, you only see the perspective on the miners side but do not see the point on the incoming supply and adoption.  Miners may probably the one that sustain the blockchain but it is the buyers who keep the price up. If more buyers comes in (adoption) miners will never bail out because the price of BTC can sustain their expenses and profit.

[julius caesar]

Next Bitcoin Halving will drive the price down because the ecological system in which Bitcoin lives will be reduced.
More miners will bail, and it is the miners who are the bone marrow that creates the life blood of block chain.

Thoughts?

I don't know if the prediction that you have made is true. Well for me, the halving event that will happen will cause a bull run to the price of the bitcoin. But, the effect of it is not instant. The halving that happened might take effect 1 year after the halving.

[Omega Weapon]

Next Bitcoin Halving will drive the price down because the ecological system in which Bitcoin lives will be reduced.
More miners will bail, and it is the miners who are the bone marrow that creates the life blood of block chain.

Thoughts?

You do not really give us anything too specific, we have known from the beginning the halving is going to reduce the reward of miners and so far nothing like what you describe has happened. Besides you are underestimating human ingenuity, even if the price went down and many miners had to leave the market that will open the field for miners that are more efficient, so even if the price went down I do not believe anything significant will happen to most miners.

[Getmon]

Next Bitcoin Halving will drive the price down because the ecological system in which Bitcoin lives will be reduced.
More miners will bail, and it is the miners who are the bone marrow that creates the life blood of block chain.

Thoughts?

Are you a miner yourself? Or are you a member of a mining group and that you have something to say on behalf of the group that halving is not something the group is interested and that you are going to bail because of it? If none, what you are saying is purely running in your mind without the slight touch of reality. There have been a couple of halvings that happened and so far there was no bail happening every after halving.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Compare hash rates to the first one. I think we're just a little bit higher these days.

There you go, evidence that mining isn't going to slow down one bit because of the reward halving.  I will assume this upcoming one will make little difference and that not a lot of miners are going to bail out as OP has suggested.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but most mining is done not by individuals but by big mining operations with lots of rigs.  If that actually is true, then there's no way in hell they're going to get rid of all that equipment and just dump the operation because the reward for mining a block got chopped in two--and it was a halving that everyone knew was coming anyway. 

I think OP might be under the impression that these things take miners by surprise.  Hate to break it to him, but that isn't the case.