Could this be a bullish sign as halving approaches?

[cheezcarls]

Price fluctuations may be an indicator of investor sentiment. Hashrate, though, is often seen as the better market number to watch in order to truly evaluate Bitcoin adoption, and recent hashrate statistics indicate that adoption continues to grow.

By all accounts, Bitcoin has had quite a tumultuous year. After starting the year more than 80% down from its all-time high, BTC recovered significantly before once again losing several thousands of dollars in value.

Source link here

For me, I think this could be another "unsure" prediction or analysis.

Although the hashrate of Bitcoin has increased significantly, this isn't guaranteed that Bitcoin will be having a big bull run when halving draws near. Remember that there are still scammers out there like PlusToken, lurking from the shadows, waiting to strike when BTC moons, then they dump a lot of their assets to bring the market down again.

I can't be sure if the increased hashrate of Bitcoin would really become "bullish" because the market today is so unpredictable. What do you guys think?

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[migws]

Price fluctuations may be an indicator of investor sentiment. Hashrate, though, is often seen as the better market number to watch in order to truly evaluate Bitcoin adoption, and recent hashrate statistics indicate that adoption continues to grow.

By all accounts, Bitcoin has had quite a tumultuous year. After starting the year more than 80% down from its all-time high, BTC recovered significantly before once again losing several thousands of dollars in value.

Source link here

For me, I think this could be another "unsure" prediction or analysis.

Although the hashrate of Bitcoin has increased significantly, this isn't guaranteed that Bitcoin will be having a big bull run when halving draws near. Remember that there are still scammers out there like PlusToken, lurking from the shadows, waiting to strike when BTC moons, then they dump a lot of their assets to bring the market down again.

I can't be sure if the increased hashrate of Bitcoin would really become "bullish" because the market today is so unpredictable. What do you guys think?

Over the past 3 years, I have seen a huge number of signs and you know what? Almost all of them turned out to be fake because Bitcoin does not care about logic, it goes its own way, which is impossible to predict. Just wait for halving and hope for a brighter future.

[DeathAngel]

I don’t know but we don’t have to worry, the halving is fast approaching & the price should start to slowly rise as we get towards it. The real fireworks will be in 2021 though.

[BlackFor3st]

Price fluctuations may be an indicator of investor sentiment. Hashrate, though, is often seen as the better market number to watch in order to truly evaluate Bitcoin adoption, and recent hashrate statistics indicate that adoption continues to grow.

By all accounts, Bitcoin has had quite a tumultuous year. After starting the year more than 80% down from its all-time high, BTC recovered significantly before once again losing several thousands of dollars in value.

Source link here

For me, I think this could be another "unsure" prediction or analysis.

Although the hashrate of Bitcoin has increased significantly, this isn't guaranteed that Bitcoin will be having a big bull run when halving draws near. Remember that there are still scammers out there like PlusToken, lurking from the shadows, waiting to strike when BTC moons, then they dump a lot of their assets to bring the market down again.

I can't be sure if the increased hashrate of Bitcoin would really become "bullish" because the market today is so unpredictable. What do you guys think?

What makes the market more challenging is because it is unpredictable and because of mass adoption of Bitcoin it cannot be controlled easily unlike the past years that big whales can easily monopolize the market as they like.

As the halving approaches many predictions are spreading everywhere, there are predictions that are positive and still the negative sides are always there also. The bear is very long and what I can say is that this coming halving is the right time for the market to shift again from bear to bull.

[MURONDI]

logically it will increase the price of bitcoin, but the fact is no one can guess with certainty the state of the market, Hopefully the price can really go up in 2020, crypto holders certainly hope so too, according to my analysis if the price is able to penetrate 8000 it is likely that prices will experience a sharp increase, but if it is not able to penetrate this number, it is likely that the downtrend still dominates the market.

[jtraverso]

Time will tell how halving will affect Bitcoin. Unfortunately, this is the most unpredictable asset and one cannot say how the market will behave. Let's just wait for halving

[crwth]

The increase in hash rate says a lot in terms of the technical side. So to see how it affects Bitcoin, we have to wait and see. In terms of the current signs, it could be, an increase in hash rate automatically says a lot more people are giving power to the Bitcoin blockchain, and that's a good sign. It seems like more miners are probably using their rigs for Bitcoin and nothing else. I hope they find a great alternative to the power-hungry machines that they have.

It's not a sure thing, but it could lead others to use Bitcoin more because of the support of the miners giving more computational power to the technology.

[samuraijin]

an increased hash might increase prices plus halving that will happen soon, slowly maybe bitcoin and other cryptocurrency are starting to recover next year, if the problem with our scammers the people in this forum have reminded it to beginners here and people out there also need to make a lot of writing and spread it to all crypto news media, at least so that people understand and want to stay away from scammer projects like plustoken and others, nothing gets rich quick in this bitcoin especially in the crypto world, everything needs to be a process and be adopters then get profit

[Mahanton]

Hashrate increase has nothing to do with bullrun.Yes, it do signifies increase of miners in the network but doesnt mean the demand do rise up too.
We know that price will vary on the demand which is on buyers or investors of btc.Good thing here is that miners still consider on mining out but we wont
know on what would be their views or behaviors after the halving occurs.

[senne]

Halving is approximately an year ago from today. Right now, you shouldn't connect any happening with the halving. Many ups and downs gonna come along with various different news before the halving's fomo actually kicks in.
And this increase in hash rate doesn't suggest anything. There is no other news or happening to support the technicals. So I won't go with the indicators unless it gets supported by other technicals or news.

[moviebuff777]

The halving has traditionally been a point at which the price has started a bull run. Usually the price of Bitcoin will start to increase a couple of months prior to the halving. Since the halving will be in mid May, we could see a price increase begin in March.

[tsaroz]

There's a general understanding that price rises around halving of a coin and that has held true almost all of the time.
But as we've seen many of the price fluctuation and factors involved, it's getting us more confused and the price more unpredictable. There are many whales that wants to increase the price of bitcoin to get some profit while some might be interested in keeping the price low. And as almost all of them would be ready to dump their coin on price rise, the price trend could get more volatile.

[ChrisPop]

Hashrate increase is somehow similar to mining difficulty increase. If the Bitcoin price decreases some weak miners might pull their rigs off the grid to protect their capital from draining out while more financially resourceful entities/miners will just buy more powerful and efficient equipment so I guess you could correlate a BTC price positive appreciation with an increase in hashrate - which could indicate that miners are bullish. There are many different nuances in which you can interpret this indicator though.

[d5000]

There are several strange assumptions in the article. One of them is that "growing hashrate is a sign of adoption".

This isn't the case in my opinion. Growing hashrate is caused by price/profitability expectations. But miners don't care about "adoption". They care only about their income, and this is currently not driven by transaction fees (which are about 1/20 of the regular block reward).

Another assumption that isn't necessarily true:

More users mean more holders, and holding increases demand and therefore price.

More users mean also more sellers. In fact, "hodling" is based on the expectation of future usage. In a "mature" Bitcoin market, hodling will decrease and not increase. This could even mean the price could go down a bit, but what I would expect is relative price stability. The circulation speed would be higher, and thus also liquidity, which means that order books are always full on both sides and neither panic nor FOMO will reach the levels we've seen in the past.

Growing hashrate is also only natural because it's an indicator for technical progress. From Moore's Law you could deduct approximately, that if the Bitcoin price is stable, hashrate should grow about ~50% per year - if it's less, then miners are making losses (e.g. if the mining market overheated).

We see that in 2018 this was the case for some time: while there was a strong increase at the start of the year (driven by the still very high Bitcoin prices), later hashrate decreased again, and at the end of the year it was only slightly above the values for April.

In 2019, however, price increased, at $7000 it is currently approximately two times  the value of January ($3500). Thus, the expected hash rate increase isn't 50% but up to 200% (price * 2 + 50%). This would mean that the "expected value" for today (December 31) is 35 EH/s (January hashrate minimum) * 3 = 105 EH/s. We're currently slightly lower than that (at ~95 EH/s), so miners are almost exactly following the expectations we can deduct out of Moore's law.

So no, hashrate isn't a reliable indicator of a future bull run. It is more based on past price movements. Miners normally can't predict the price better than the market can.

[joinfree]

I would not count on that really but certainly the approach of bitcoin halving is definitely going to cause at least a slight rise in the price of bitcoin. The reason why most people share similar sentiments that halvings bring about an increase in the price of bitcoin is what has been happening in the history. Hopefully we can see a huge spike in the price of bitcoin as mass adoption of bitcoin and news about halving nears.

[mk4]

I don’t know but we don’t have to worry, the halving is fast approaching & the price should start to slowly rise as we get towards it.

Don't get too excited. It could definitely easily go the other way around. The halving could or might be priced in already, with the buyers anticipating a price rise sometime near the halving. And guess what could happen if the price didn't rise? They might dump their coins.

As always in the end, no one knows and time will tell.

[mohdk52]

The price should rise soon.It is unlikely to fall below $7,000.So the bulls are back in business.

[Artemis3]

Time will tell how halving will affect Bitcoin. Unfortunately, this is the most unpredictable asset and one cannot say how the market will behave. Let's just wait for halving

Yes, its not like there are 10 years of data and 3 previous halvings already.

Nothing important will occur during the halving, maybe before, and certainly after. Bitcoin production is dwindling to the point it simply won't matter how little of them are produced anymore. I have said before that most bitcoins that there ever will are already in the market and this is a fact.

Don't think mining is fundamental for bitcoin's price, the more time passes the less influence it has. Some people seem to believe the cost of producing a bitcoin is somehow related, but it isn't. Value of bitcoin is determined mainly by the usefulness factor by those who decide to own it. As time passes, the actual production cost has less and less of an influence to it.

You say its unpredictable but in my opinion its fundamental price won't deviate much from the logarithmic curve in all its lifetime. The earlier the stage, the faster it rises, the later the stage the slower. But never back down, because production is limited while the number of people that find it useful can only increase until a point (ie. world's population).

[BrewMaster]

Hashrate, though, is often seen as the better market number to watch in order to truly evaluate Bitcoin adoption, and recent hashrate statistics indicate that adoption continues to grow.

lol. you are wrong on both parts
hashrate has never been an indication of adoption. of course since it is rising after the price rises you can use it for that matter but it wouldn't make any sense.
secondly hashrate has not have any growth for the past 3 months at least. it has been stable just as price is staying in a fixed range.

[squatter]

Price fluctuations may be an indicator of investor sentiment. Hashrate, though, is often seen as the better market number to watch in order to truly evaluate Bitcoin adoption, and recent hashrate statistics indicate that adoption continues to grow.

Hash rate doesn't indicate adoption. I would say it just indicates miner sentiment, which is one subset of investor sentiment. Miners appear to be bullish; whether they are correct about that remains to be seen.

There are better metrics for adoption -- blockchain/wallet activity, fiat inflows to exchanges, or even price itself since price discovery is a reflection of supply and demand.